Paris Agreement Overshooting – Reversibility, Climate Impacts and Adaptation Needs | PROVIDE | Project | Results | H2020 | CORDIS

Deliverables

Release of complete set of communication materials and tools, incl. the public website-V 1.0

First version of full project communication chain as described in Communication Activities sec 236

Four review reports on key overshoot adaptation challenges in Iconic Regions and Cities

Potential socioecological tipping points irreversible impacts and spatial opportunities and conditions for integrating future adaptation measures in Iconic Regions and Cities including insights from first set of stakeholder meetings

Policy brief on PROVIDE findings of adaptation and mitigation implications of overshoot risks as input into the Global Stocktake

Version 0 of the CS Dashboard providing information on few variables with global coverage

Publications

High resolution modelling of the urban heat island of 100 European cities

Author(s): Dirk Lauwaet, Julie Berckmans, Hans Hooyberghs, Hendrik Wouters, Guy Driesen, Filip Lefebre, Koen De Ridder
Published in: Urban Climate, Issue Volume 54, March 2024, 101850, 2024, ISSN 2212-0955
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.101850

Risks of synchronized low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections

Author(s): Kai Kornhuber, Corey Lesk, Carl F. Schleussner, Jonas Jägermeyr, Peter Pfleiderer & Radley M. Horton
Published in: Nature Communications, 2023, ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-38906-7

Uncompensated claims to fair emission space risk putting Paris Agreement goals out of reach

Author(s): Gaurav Ganti, Matthew J Gidden, Christopher J Smith, Claire Fyson, Alexander Nauels, Keywan Riahi and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue Volume 18, Number 2, 2023, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acb502

Representing natural climate variability in an event attribution context: Indo-Pakistani heatwave of 2022

Author(s): Shruti Nath a b, Mathias Hauser b, Dominik L. Schumacher b, Quentin Lejeune a, Lukas Gudmundsson b, Yann Quilcaille b, Pierre Candela c, Fahad Saeed a, Sonia I. Seneviratne b, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner a d
Published in: Weather and Climate Extremes, Issue Volume 44, June 2024, 100671, 2024, ISSN 2212-0947
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100671

The zero emissions commitment and climate stabilization

Author(s): Palazzo Corner et al.
Published in: Frontiers in Science, Issue Volume 1, 2023, ISSN 2813-6330
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
DOI: 10.3389/fsci.2023.1170744

Infrastructure failure cascades quintuple risk of storm and flood-induced service disruptions across the globe

Author(s): Evelyn Mühlhofer David N. Bresch Elco E. Koks
Published in: One Earth, Issue VOLUME 7, ISSUE 4, P714-729, APRIL 19, 2024, 2024, ISSN 2590-3322
Publisher: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/j.oneear.2024.03.010

Towards scenario representation of adaptive capacity for global climate change assessments

Author(s): Andrijevic, M., Schleussner, CF., Crespo Cuaresma, J. et al.
Published in: Nat. Clim. Chang., Issue 13, 778–787 (2023), 2023, ISSN 1758-678X
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01725-1

Net zero targets in science and policy

Author(s): Joeri Rogelj
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue Volume 18, Number 2, 2023, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acb4ae

Fire weather index data under historical and shared socioeconomic pathway projections in the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project from 1850 to 2100

Author(s): Quilcaille, Y., Batibeniz, F., Ribeiro, A. F. S., Padrón, R. S., and Seneviratne, S. I.
Published in: Earth Syst. Sci. Data, Issue 15, 2153–2177, 2023, ISSN 1866-3508
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/essd-15-2153-2023

Irreversible loss in marine ecosystem habitability after a temperature overshoot

Author(s): Santana-Falcon et al.
Published in: Communications Earth & Environment, Issue Volume 4, Number 343, 2023, ISSN 2662-4435
Publisher: Nature Research
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-023-01002-1

Substantial reductions in non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions reductions implied by IPCC estimates of the remaining carbon budget

Author(s): Joeri Rogelj & Robin D. Lamboll
Published in: Communications Earth & Environment, Issue 5, Article number: 35 (2024), 2024, ISSN 2662-4435
Publisher: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-023-01168-8

Quantifying uncertainty in aggregated climate change risk assessments

Author(s): Harrington, L.J., Schleussner, CF. & Otto, F.E.L.
Published in: Nature Communications, Issue 12, Article number: 7140, 2021, ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-27491-2

Ocean acidification in emission-driven temperature stabilization scenarios: the role of TCRE and non-CO2 greenhouse gases

Author(s): Jens Terhaar; Thomas L. Frölicher; Fortunat Joos
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue Volume 18, Number 2, 2023, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acaf91

Changes in IPCC Scenario Assessment Emulators Between SR1.5 and AR6 Unraveled

Author(s): Z. Nicholls, M. Meinshausen, J. Lewis, C. J. Smith, P. M. Forster, J. S. Fuglestvedt, J. Rogelj, J. S. Kikstra, K. Riahi, E. Byers
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue Volume49, Issue20, 2022, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2022gl099788

Global glacier change in the 21st century: Every increase in temperature matters

Author(s): Rounce, D. R., Hock, R., Maussion, F., Hugonnet, R., Kochtitzky, W., Huss, M., Berthier, E., Brinkerhoff, D., Compagno, L., Copland, L., Farinotti, D., Menounos, B. and McNabb, R. W
Published in: Science, Issue Volume 379, Issue 6627, 2023, Page(s) 78–83, ISSN 1095-9203
Publisher: AAAS
DOI: 10.1126/science.abo1324

Hydrologic interpretation of machine learning models for 10-daily streamflow simulation in climate sensitive upper Indus catchments

Author(s): Haris Mushtaq, Taimoor Akhtar, Muhammad Zia ur Rahman Hashmi, Amjad Masood & Fahad Saeed
Published in: Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2024, ISSN 0177-798X
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-024-04932-8

Global protection from tropical cyclones by coastal ecosystems—past, present, and under climate change

Author(s): Sarah Hülsen, Robert I McDonald, Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer, David N Bresch, Richard Sharp, Thomas Worthington and Chahan M Kropf
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue Volume 18, Number 12, 2023, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad00cd

Mapping the climate risk to urban forests at city scale

Author(s): Esperon-Rodriguez, M.; Gallagher, R.V.; Souverijns, N.; Lejeune, Q.; Schleussner, C.-F.; Tjoelker, M.G.
Published in: Landscape and Urban Planning, 2024, ISSN 1872-6062
Publisher: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2024.105090

Glacier projections sensitivity to temperature-index model choices and calibration strategies

Author(s): Lilian Schuster; David R. Rounce; Fabien Maussion
Published in: Annals of Glaciology,, Issue 6, 2023, Page(s) Pp 1-16, ISSN 1727-5644
Publisher: University of Lethbridge, Canada
DOI: 10.1017/aog.2023.57

Limited reversal of regional climate signals in overshoot scenarios

Author(s): Peter Pfleiderer, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, and Jana Sillmann
Published in: Environmental Research: Climate, Issue Climate 3 015005, 2024, ISSN 2752-5295
Publisher: IOP Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/ad1c45

Adaptive emission reduction approach to reach any global warming target

Author(s): Jens Terhaar; Thomas L. Frölicher; Mathias T. Aschwanden; Pierre Friedlingstein; Fortunat Joos
Published in: Nature Climate Change, Issue Volume 12, 2022, ISSN 1758-6798
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01537-9

Understanding the carbon dioxide removal range in 1.5 °C compatible and high overshoot pathways

Author(s): Ruben Prütz, Jessica Strefler, Joeri Rogelj, and Sabine Fuss
Published in: Environmental Research Communications, Issue Volume 5, Number 4, 2023, ISSN 2515-7620
Publisher: IOP Publishing Ltd
DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/accdba

Attributing observed permafrost warming in the northern hemisphere to anthropogenic climate change

Author(s): Lukas Gudmundsson; Josefine Kirchner; Anne Gädeke; Jeannette Noetzli; Boris K Biskaborn
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue Vol 17, Iss 9, p 095014 (2022), 2022, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac8ec2

A multimodel analysis of post-Glasgow climate targets and feasibility challenges.

Author(s): van de Ven, DJ., Mittal, S., Gambhir, A. et al.
Published in: Nat. Clim. Chang., Issue 13, 570–578 (2023), 2023, ISSN 1758-678X
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01661-0

An emission pathway classification reflecting the Paris Agreement climate objectives

Author(s): Carl-Friedrich Schleussner; Gaurav Ganti; Joeri Rogelj; Matthew Gidden
Published in: Communications Earth & Environment, Issue 3, Article number: 135 (2022), 2022, ISSN 2662-4435
Publisher: Nature Portfolio
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-022-00467-w

A taxonomy to map evidence on the co-benefits, challenges, and limits of carbon dioxide removal

Author(s): Ruben Prütz, Sabine Fuss, Sarah Lück, Leon Stephan & Joeri Rogelj
Published in: Communications Earth & Environment, Issue 5, Article number: 197 (2024), 2024, ISSN 2662-4435
Publisher: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01365-z

Assessment of a tiling energy budget approach in a land surface model, ORCHIDEE-MICT (r8205)

Author(s): Yi Xi, Chunjing Qiu, Yuan Zhang, Dan Zhu, Shushi Peng, Gustaf Hugelius, Jinfeng Chang, Elodie Salmon, and Philippe Ciais
Published in: Geoscientific Model Development, 2024
Publisher: Copernicus Publication
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-17-4727-2024

A perspective on the next generation of Earth system model scenarios: towards representative emission pathways (REPs)

Author(s): Malte Meinshausen, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Kathleen Beyer, Greg Bodeker, Olivier Boucher, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Aïda Diongue-Niang, Fatima Driouech, Erich Fischer, Piers Forster, Michael Grose, Gerrit Hansen, Zeke Hausfather, Tatiana Ilyina, Jarmo S. Kikstra, Joyce Kimutai, Andrew D. King, June-Yi Lee, Chris Lennard, Tabea Lissner, Alexander Nauels, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, G
Published in: Geosci. Model Dev., Issue 17, 4533–4559, 2024, ISSN 1991-9603
Publisher: Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024

Solar radiation modification challenges decarbonization with renewable solar energy

Author(s): Susanne Baur, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, and Laurent Terray
Published in: Earth System Dynamics, Issue 15, 307–322, 2024, 2024, ISSN 2190-4987
Publisher: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/esd-15-307-2024

Extending MESMER-X: a spatially resolved Earth system model emulator for fire weather and soil moisture

Author(s): Yann Quilcaille, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Published in: Earth Syst. Dynam., Issue 14, 1333–1362, 2023, 2023
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/esd-14-1333-2023

Coupling a large-scale glacier and hydrological model (OGGM v1.5.3 and CWatM V1.08) – towards an improved representation of mountain water resources in global assessments

Author(s): Sarah Hanus, Lilian Schuster, Peter Burek, Fabien Maussion, Yoshihide Wada, and Daniel Viviroli
Published in: Geoscientific Model Development, 2024
Publisher: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-17-5123-2024

The deployment length of solar radiation modification: an interplay of mitigation, net-negative emissions and climate uncertainty

Author(s): Susanne Baur, Alexander Nauels, Zebedee Nicholls, Benjamin M. Sanderson, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Published in: Earth System Dynamics, 2023
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/esd-14-367-2023

Why half a degree matters so much

Author(s): Grete K. Hovelsrud; Helena Gonzales Lindberg
Published in: The Circle, 2024, Page(s) 14-16
Publisher: WWF

Fire Weather Compromises Large-scale Afforestation Scenarios

Author(s): Jäger, Felix; Schwaab, Jonas; Quilcaille, Yann ; Windisch, Michael; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Frank, Stefan; Gusti, Mykola; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Lessa Derci Augustynczik, Andrey; Müller, Christoph; Narayan, Kanishka, B.; Padrón Flasher, Ryan ; Popp, Alexander; Van Vuuren, Detlef; Wögerer, Michael; Seneviratne, Sonia I.
Published in: 2023
Publisher: ETHZ
DOI: 10.3929/ethz-b-000614820

A guide to scenarios for the PROVIDE project

Author(s): Robin Lamboll; Joeri Rogelj; Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Published in: Issue 1, 2022
Publisher: Climate Analytics
DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10511875.1

Future evolution of glaciers

Author(s): Fabien Maussion, Zora Schirmeister and Lilian Schuster
Published in: 2023
Publisher: OGGM-Edu Developers

Paris Agreement Overshooting – Reversibility, Climate Impacts and Adaptation Needs

Deliverables

Publications

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