Paris Agreement Overshooting – Reversibility, Climate Impacts and Adaptation Needs | PROVIDE | Project | Results | H2020 | CORDIS

Resultado final

Release of complete set of communication materials and tools, incl. the public website-V 1.0

First version of full project communication chain as described in Communication Activities sec 236

Four review reports on key overshoot adaptation challenges in Iconic Regions and Cities

Potential socioecological tipping points irreversible impacts and spatial opportunities and conditions for integrating future adaptation measures in Iconic Regions and Cities including insights from first set of stakeholder meetings

Policy brief on PROVIDE findings of adaptation and mitigation implications of overshoot risks as input into the Global Stocktake

Version 0 of the CS Dashboard providing information on few variables with global coverage

Publicaciones

High resolution modelling of the urban heat island of 100 European cities

Autores: Dirk Lauwaet, Julie Berckmans, Hans Hooyberghs, Hendrik Wouters, Guy Driesen, Filip Lefebre, Koen De Ridder
Publicado en: Urban Climate, Edición Volume 54, March 2024, 101850, 2024, ISSN 2212-0955
Editor: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.101850

Risks of synchronized low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections

Autores: Kai Kornhuber, Corey Lesk, Carl F. Schleussner, Jonas Jägermeyr, Peter Pfleiderer & Radley M. Horton
Publicado en: Nature Communications, 2023, ISSN 2041-1723
Editor: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-38906-7

Uncompensated claims to fair emission space risk putting Paris Agreement goals out of reach

Autores: Gaurav Ganti, Matthew J Gidden, Christopher J Smith, Claire Fyson, Alexander Nauels, Keywan Riahi and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Publicado en: Environmental Research Letters, Edición Volume 18, Number 2, 2023, ISSN 1748-9326
Editor: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acb502

Representing natural climate variability in an event attribution context: Indo-Pakistani heatwave of 2022

Autores: Shruti Nath a b, Mathias Hauser b, Dominik L. Schumacher b, Quentin Lejeune a, Lukas Gudmundsson b, Yann Quilcaille b, Pierre Candela c, Fahad Saeed a, Sonia I. Seneviratne b, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner a d
Publicado en: Weather and Climate Extremes, Edición Volume 44, June 2024, 100671, 2024, ISSN 2212-0947
Editor: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100671

The zero emissions commitment and climate stabilization

Autores: Palazzo Corner et al.
Publicado en: Frontiers in Science, Edición Volume 1, 2023, ISSN 2813-6330
Editor: Frontiers Media SA
DOI: 10.3389/fsci.2023.1170744

Infrastructure failure cascades quintuple risk of storm and flood-induced service disruptions across the globe

Autores: Evelyn Mühlhofer David N. Bresch Elco E. Koks
Publicado en: One Earth, Edición VOLUME 7, ISSUE 4, P714-729, APRIL 19, 2024, 2024, ISSN 2590-3322
Editor: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/j.oneear.2024.03.010

Towards scenario representation of adaptive capacity for global climate change assessments

Autores: Andrijevic, M., Schleussner, CF., Crespo Cuaresma, J. et al.
Publicado en: Nat. Clim. Chang., Edición 13, 778–787 (2023), 2023, ISSN 1758-678X
Editor: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01725-1

Net zero targets in science and policy

Autores: Joeri Rogelj
Publicado en: Environmental Research Letters, Edición Volume 18, Number 2, 2023, ISSN 1748-9326
Editor: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acb4ae

Fire weather index data under historical and shared socioeconomic pathway projections in the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project from 1850 to 2100

Autores: Quilcaille, Y., Batibeniz, F., Ribeiro, A. F. S., Padrón, R. S., and Seneviratne, S. I.
Publicado en: Earth Syst. Sci. Data, Edición 15, 2153–2177, 2023, ISSN 1866-3508
Editor: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/essd-15-2153-2023

Irreversible loss in marine ecosystem habitability after a temperature overshoot

Autores: Santana-Falcon et al.
Publicado en: Communications Earth & Environment, Edición Volume 4, Number 343, 2023, ISSN 2662-4435
Editor: Nature Research
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-023-01002-1

Substantial reductions in non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions reductions implied by IPCC estimates of the remaining carbon budget

Autores: Joeri Rogelj & Robin D. Lamboll
Publicado en: Communications Earth & Environment, Edición 5, Article number: 35 (2024), 2024, ISSN 2662-4435
Editor: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-023-01168-8

Quantifying uncertainty in aggregated climate change risk assessments

Autores: Harrington, L.J., Schleussner, CF. & Otto, F.E.L.
Publicado en: Nature Communications, Edición 12, Article number: 7140, 2021, ISSN 2041-1723
Editor: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-27491-2

Ocean acidification in emission-driven temperature stabilization scenarios: the role of TCRE and non-CO2 greenhouse gases

Autores: Jens Terhaar; Thomas L. Frölicher; Fortunat Joos
Publicado en: Environmental Research Letters, Edición Volume 18, Number 2, 2023, ISSN 1748-9326
Editor: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acaf91

Changes in IPCC Scenario Assessment Emulators Between SR1.5 and AR6 Unraveled

Autores: Z. Nicholls, M. Meinshausen, J. Lewis, C. J. Smith, P. M. Forster, J. S. Fuglestvedt, J. Rogelj, J. S. Kikstra, K. Riahi, E. Byers
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición Volume49, Edición20, 2022, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2022gl099788

Global glacier change in the 21st century: Every increase in temperature matters

Autores: Rounce, D. R., Hock, R., Maussion, F., Hugonnet, R., Kochtitzky, W., Huss, M., Berthier, E., Brinkerhoff, D., Compagno, L., Copland, L., Farinotti, D., Menounos, B. and McNabb, R. W
Publicado en: Science, Edición Volume 379, Edición 6627, 2023, Página(s) 78–83, ISSN 1095-9203
Editor: AAAS
DOI: 10.1126/science.abo1324

Hydrologic interpretation of machine learning models for 10-daily streamflow simulation in climate sensitive upper Indus catchments

Autores: Haris Mushtaq, Taimoor Akhtar, Muhammad Zia ur Rahman Hashmi, Amjad Masood & Fahad Saeed
Publicado en: Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2024, ISSN 0177-798X
Editor: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-024-04932-8

Global protection from tropical cyclones by coastal ecosystems—past, present, and under climate change

Autores: Sarah Hülsen, Robert I McDonald, Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer, David N Bresch, Richard Sharp, Thomas Worthington and Chahan M Kropf
Publicado en: Environmental Research Letters, Edición Volume 18, Number 12, 2023, ISSN 1748-9326
Editor: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad00cd

Mapping the climate risk to urban forests at city scale

Autores: Esperon-Rodriguez, M.; Gallagher, R.V.; Souverijns, N.; Lejeune, Q.; Schleussner, C.-F.; Tjoelker, M.G.
Publicado en: Landscape and Urban Planning, 2024, ISSN 1872-6062
Editor: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2024.105090

Glacier projections sensitivity to temperature-index model choices and calibration strategies

Autores: Lilian Schuster; David R. Rounce; Fabien Maussion
Publicado en: Annals of Glaciology,, Edición 6, 2023, Página(s) Pp 1-16, ISSN 1727-5644
Editor: University of Lethbridge, Canada
DOI: 10.1017/aog.2023.57

Limited reversal of regional climate signals in overshoot scenarios

Autores: Peter Pfleiderer, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, and Jana Sillmann
Publicado en: Environmental Research: Climate, Edición Climate 3 015005, 2024, ISSN 2752-5295
Editor: IOP Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/ad1c45

Adaptive emission reduction approach to reach any global warming target

Autores: Jens Terhaar; Thomas L. Frölicher; Mathias T. Aschwanden; Pierre Friedlingstein; Fortunat Joos
Publicado en: Nature Climate Change, Edición Volume 12, 2022, ISSN 1758-6798
Editor: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01537-9

Understanding the carbon dioxide removal range in 1.5 °C compatible and high overshoot pathways

Autores: Ruben Prütz, Jessica Strefler, Joeri Rogelj, and Sabine Fuss
Publicado en: Environmental Research Communications, Edición Volume 5, Number 4, 2023, ISSN 2515-7620
Editor: IOP Publishing Ltd
DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/accdba

Attributing observed permafrost warming in the northern hemisphere to anthropogenic climate change

Autores: Lukas Gudmundsson; Josefine Kirchner; Anne Gädeke; Jeannette Noetzli; Boris K Biskaborn
Publicado en: Environmental Research Letters, Edición Vol 17, Iss 9, p 095014 (2022), 2022, ISSN 1748-9326
Editor: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac8ec2

A multimodel analysis of post-Glasgow climate targets and feasibility challenges.

Autores: van de Ven, DJ., Mittal, S., Gambhir, A. et al.
Publicado en: Nat. Clim. Chang., Edición 13, 570–578 (2023), 2023, ISSN 1758-678X
Editor: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01661-0

An emission pathway classification reflecting the Paris Agreement climate objectives

Autores: Carl-Friedrich Schleussner; Gaurav Ganti; Joeri Rogelj; Matthew Gidden
Publicado en: Communications Earth & Environment, Edición 3, Article number: 135 (2022), 2022, ISSN 2662-4435
Editor: Nature Portfolio
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-022-00467-w

A taxonomy to map evidence on the co-benefits, challenges, and limits of carbon dioxide removal

Autores: Ruben Prütz, Sabine Fuss, Sarah Lück, Leon Stephan & Joeri Rogelj
Publicado en: Communications Earth & Environment, Edición 5, Article number: 197 (2024), 2024, ISSN 2662-4435
Editor: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01365-z

Assessment of a tiling energy budget approach in a land surface model, ORCHIDEE-MICT (r8205)

Autores: Yi Xi, Chunjing Qiu, Yuan Zhang, Dan Zhu, Shushi Peng, Gustaf Hugelius, Jinfeng Chang, Elodie Salmon, and Philippe Ciais
Publicado en: Geoscientific Model Development, 2024
Editor: Copernicus Publication
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-17-4727-2024

A perspective on the next generation of Earth system model scenarios: towards representative emission pathways (REPs)

Autores: Malte Meinshausen, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Kathleen Beyer, Greg Bodeker, Olivier Boucher, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Aïda Diongue-Niang, Fatima Driouech, Erich Fischer, Piers Forster, Michael Grose, Gerrit Hansen, Zeke Hausfather, Tatiana Ilyina, Jarmo S. Kikstra, Joyce Kimutai, Andrew D. King, June-Yi Lee, Chris Lennard, Tabea Lissner, Alexander Nauels, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, G
Publicado en: Geosci. Model Dev., Edición 17, 4533–4559, 2024, ISSN 1991-9603
Editor: Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024

Solar radiation modification challenges decarbonization with renewable solar energy

Autores: Susanne Baur, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, and Laurent Terray
Publicado en: Earth System Dynamics, Edición 15, 307–322, 2024, 2024, ISSN 2190-4987
Editor: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/esd-15-307-2024

Extending MESMER-X: a spatially resolved Earth system model emulator for fire weather and soil moisture

Autores: Yann Quilcaille, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Publicado en: Earth Syst. Dynam., Edición 14, 1333–1362, 2023, 2023
Editor: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/esd-14-1333-2023

Coupling a large-scale glacier and hydrological model (OGGM v1.5.3 and CWatM V1.08) – towards an improved representation of mountain water resources in global assessments

Autores: Sarah Hanus, Lilian Schuster, Peter Burek, Fabien Maussion, Yoshihide Wada, and Daniel Viviroli
Publicado en: Geoscientific Model Development, 2024
Editor: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-17-5123-2024

The deployment length of solar radiation modification: an interplay of mitigation, net-negative emissions and climate uncertainty

Autores: Susanne Baur, Alexander Nauels, Zebedee Nicholls, Benjamin M. Sanderson, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Publicado en: Earth System Dynamics, 2023
Editor: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/esd-14-367-2023

Why half a degree matters so much

Autores: Grete K. Hovelsrud; Helena Gonzales Lindberg
Publicado en: The Circle, 2024, Página(s) 14-16
Editor: WWF

Fire Weather Compromises Large-scale Afforestation Scenarios

Autores: Jäger, Felix; Schwaab, Jonas; Quilcaille, Yann ; Windisch, Michael; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Frank, Stefan; Gusti, Mykola; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Lessa Derci Augustynczik, Andrey; Müller, Christoph; Narayan, Kanishka, B.; Padrón Flasher, Ryan ; Popp, Alexander; Van Vuuren, Detlef; Wögerer, Michael; Seneviratne, Sonia I.
Publicado en: 2023
Editor: ETHZ
DOI: 10.3929/ethz-b-000614820

A guide to scenarios for the PROVIDE project

Autores: Robin Lamboll; Joeri Rogelj; Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Publicado en: Edición 1, 2022
Editor: Climate Analytics
DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10511875.1

Future evolution of glaciers

Autores: Fabien Maussion, Zora Schirmeister and Lilian Schuster
Publicado en: 2023
Editor: OGGM-Edu Developers

Paris Agreement Overshooting – Reversibility, Climate Impacts and Adaptation Needs

Resultado final

Publicaciones

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