Paris Agreement Overshooting – Reversibility, Climate Impacts and Adaptation Needs | PROVIDE | Project | Results | H2020 | CORDIS

Livrables

Release of complete set of communication materials and tools, incl. the public website-V 1.0

First version of full project communication chain as described in Communication Activities sec 236

Four review reports on key overshoot adaptation challenges in Iconic Regions and Cities

Potential socioecological tipping points irreversible impacts and spatial opportunities and conditions for integrating future adaptation measures in Iconic Regions and Cities including insights from first set of stakeholder meetings

Policy brief on PROVIDE findings of adaptation and mitigation implications of overshoot risks as input into the Global Stocktake

Version 0 of the CS Dashboard providing information on few variables with global coverage

Publications

High resolution modelling of the urban heat island of 100 European cities

Auteurs: Dirk Lauwaet, Julie Berckmans, Hans Hooyberghs, Hendrik Wouters, Guy Driesen, Filip Lefebre, Koen De Ridder
Publié dans: Urban Climate, Numéro Volume 54, March 2024, 101850, 2024, ISSN 2212-0955
Éditeur: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.101850

Uncompensated claims to fair emission space risk putting Paris Agreement goals out of reach

Auteurs: Gaurav Ganti, Matthew J Gidden, Christopher J Smith, Claire Fyson, Alexander Nauels, Keywan Riahi and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Publié dans: Environmental Research Letters, Numéro Volume 18, Number 2, 2023, ISSN 1748-9326
Éditeur: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acb502

Representing natural climate variability in an event attribution context: Indo-Pakistani heatwave of 2022

Auteurs: Shruti Nath a b, Mathias Hauser b, Dominik L. Schumacher b, Quentin Lejeune a, Lukas Gudmundsson b, Yann Quilcaille b, Pierre Candela c, Fahad Saeed a, Sonia I. Seneviratne b, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner a d
Publié dans: Weather and Climate Extremes, Numéro Volume 44, June 2024, 100671, 2024, ISSN 2212-0947
Éditeur: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100671

The zero emissions commitment and climate stabilization

Auteurs: Palazzo Corner et al.
Publié dans: Frontiers in Science, Numéro Volume 1, 2023, ISSN 2813-6330
Éditeur: Frontiers Media SA
DOI: 10.3389/fsci.2023.1170744

Infrastructure failure cascades quintuple risk of storm and flood-induced service disruptions across the globe

Auteurs: Evelyn Mühlhofer David N. Bresch Elco E. Koks
Publié dans: One Earth, Numéro VOLUME 7, ISSUE 4, P714-729, APRIL 19, 2024, 2024, ISSN 2590-3322
Éditeur: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/j.oneear.2024.03.010

Towards scenario representation of adaptive capacity for global climate change assessments

Auteurs: Andrijevic, M., Schleussner, CF., Crespo Cuaresma, J. et al.
Publié dans: Nat. Clim. Chang., Numéro 13, 778–787 (2023), 2023, ISSN 1758-678X
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01725-1

Net zero targets in science and policy

Auteurs: Joeri Rogelj
Publié dans: Environmental Research Letters, Numéro Volume 18, Number 2, 2023, ISSN 1748-9326
Éditeur: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acb4ae

Fire weather index data under historical and shared socioeconomic pathway projections in the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project from 1850 to 2100

Auteurs: Quilcaille, Y., Batibeniz, F., Ribeiro, A. F. S., Padrón, R. S., and Seneviratne, S. I.
Publié dans: Earth Syst. Sci. Data, Numéro 15, 2153–2177, 2023, ISSN 1866-3508
Éditeur: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/essd-15-2153-2023

Irreversible loss in marine ecosystem habitability after a temperature overshoot

Auteurs: Santana-Falcon et al.
Publié dans: Communications Earth & Environment, Numéro Volume 4, Number 343, 2023, ISSN 2662-4435
Éditeur: Nature Research
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-023-01002-1

Substantial reductions in non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions reductions implied by IPCC estimates of the remaining carbon budget

Auteurs: Joeri Rogelj & Robin D. Lamboll
Publié dans: Communications Earth & Environment, Numéro 5, Article number: 35 (2024), 2024, ISSN 2662-4435
Éditeur: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-023-01168-8

Quantifying uncertainty in aggregated climate change risk assessments

Auteurs: Harrington, L.J., Schleussner, CF. & Otto, F.E.L.
Publié dans: Nature Communications, Numéro 12, Article number: 7140, 2021, ISSN 2041-1723
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-27491-2

Ocean acidification in emission-driven temperature stabilization scenarios: the role of TCRE and non-CO2 greenhouse gases

Auteurs: Jens Terhaar; Thomas L. Frölicher; Fortunat Joos
Publié dans: Environmental Research Letters, Numéro Volume 18, Number 2, 2023, ISSN 1748-9326
Éditeur: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acaf91

Changes in IPCC Scenario Assessment Emulators Between SR1.5 and AR6 Unraveled

Auteurs: Z. Nicholls, M. Meinshausen, J. Lewis, C. J. Smith, P. M. Forster, J. S. Fuglestvedt, J. Rogelj, J. S. Kikstra, K. Riahi, E. Byers
Publié dans: Geophysical Research Letters, Numéro Volume49, Numéro20, 2022, ISSN 0094-8276
Éditeur: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2022gl099788

Global glacier change in the 21st century: Every increase in temperature matters

Auteurs: Rounce, D. R., Hock, R., Maussion, F., Hugonnet, R., Kochtitzky, W., Huss, M., Berthier, E., Brinkerhoff, D., Compagno, L., Copland, L., Farinotti, D., Menounos, B. and McNabb, R. W
Publié dans: Science, Numéro Volume 379, Numéro 6627, 2023, Page(s) 78–83, ISSN 1095-9203
Éditeur: AAAS
DOI: 10.1126/science.abo1324

Hydrologic interpretation of machine learning models for 10-daily streamflow simulation in climate sensitive upper Indus catchments

Auteurs: Haris Mushtaq, Taimoor Akhtar, Muhammad Zia ur Rahman Hashmi, Amjad Masood & Fahad Saeed
Publié dans: Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2024, ISSN 0177-798X
Éditeur: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-024-04932-8

Global protection from tropical cyclones by coastal ecosystems—past, present, and under climate change

Auteurs: Sarah Hülsen, Robert I McDonald, Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer, David N Bresch, Richard Sharp, Thomas Worthington and Chahan M Kropf
Publié dans: Environmental Research Letters, Numéro Volume 18, Number 12, 2023, ISSN 1748-9326
Éditeur: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad00cd

Glacier projections sensitivity to temperature-index model choices and calibration strategies

Auteurs: Lilian Schuster; David R. Rounce; Fabien Maussion
Publié dans: Annals of Glaciology,, Numéro 6, 2023, Page(s) Pp 1-16, ISSN 1727-5644
Éditeur: University of Lethbridge, Canada
DOI: 10.1017/aog.2023.57

Limited reversal of regional climate signals in overshoot scenarios

Auteurs: Peter Pfleiderer, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, and Jana Sillmann
Publié dans: Environmental Research: Climate, Numéro Climate 3 015005, 2024, ISSN 2752-5295
Éditeur: IOP Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/ad1c45

Adaptive emission reduction approach to reach any global warming target

Auteurs: Jens Terhaar; Thomas L. Frölicher; Mathias T. Aschwanden; Pierre Friedlingstein; Fortunat Joos
Publié dans: Nature Climate Change, Numéro Volume 12, 2022, ISSN 1758-6798
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01537-9

Understanding the carbon dioxide removal range in 1.5 °C compatible and high overshoot pathways

Auteurs: Ruben Prütz, Jessica Strefler, Joeri Rogelj, and Sabine Fuss
Publié dans: Environmental Research Communications, Numéro Volume 5, Number 4, 2023, ISSN 2515-7620
Éditeur: IOP Publishing Ltd
DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/accdba

Attributing observed permafrost warming in the northern hemisphere to anthropogenic climate change

Auteurs: Lukas Gudmundsson; Josefine Kirchner; Anne Gädeke; Jeannette Noetzli; Boris K Biskaborn
Publié dans: Environmental Research Letters, Numéro Vol 17, Iss 9, p 095014 (2022), 2022, ISSN 1748-9326
Éditeur: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac8ec2

A multimodel analysis of post-Glasgow climate targets and feasibility challenges.

Auteurs: van de Ven, DJ., Mittal, S., Gambhir, A. et al.
Publié dans: Nat. Clim. Chang., Numéro 13, 570–578 (2023), 2023, ISSN 1758-678X
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01661-0

An emission pathway classification reflecting the Paris Agreement climate objectives

Auteurs: Carl-Friedrich Schleussner; Gaurav Ganti; Joeri Rogelj; Matthew Gidden
Publié dans: Communications Earth & Environment, Numéro 3, Article number: 135 (2022), 2022, ISSN 2662-4435
Éditeur: Nature Portfolio
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-022-00467-w

A taxonomy to map evidence on the co-benefits, challenges, and limits of carbon dioxide removal

Auteurs: Ruben Prütz, Sabine Fuss, Sarah Lück, Leon Stephan & Joeri Rogelj
Publié dans: Communications Earth & Environment, Numéro 5, Article number: 197 (2024), 2024, ISSN 2662-4435
Éditeur: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01365-z

Why half a degree matters so much

Auteurs: Grete K. Hovelsrud; Helena Gonzales Lindberg
Publié dans: The Circle, 2024, Page(s) 14-16
Éditeur: WWF

A guide to scenarios for the PROVIDE project

Auteurs: Robin Lamboll; Joeri Rogelj; Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Publié dans: Numéro 1, 2022
Éditeur: Climate Analytics
DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10511875.1

Future evolution of glaciers

Auteurs: Fabien Maussion, Zora Schirmeister and Lilian Schuster
Publié dans: 2023
Éditeur: OGGM-Edu Developers

A perspective on the next generation of Earth system model scenarios: towards representative emission pathways (REPs)

Auteurs: Malte Meinshausen, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Kathleen Beyer, Greg Bodeker, Olivier Boucher, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Aïda Diongue-Niang, Fatima Driouech, Erich Fischer, Piers Forster, Michael Grose, Gerrit Hansen, Zeke Hausfather, Tatiana Ilyina, Jarmo S. Kikstra, Joyce Kimutai, Andrew D. King, June-Yi Lee, Chris Lennard, Tabea Lissner, Alexander Nauels, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, G
Publié dans: Geosci. Model Dev., Numéro 17, 4533–4559, 2024, ISSN 1991-9603
Éditeur: Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024

Solar radiation modification challenges decarbonization with renewable solar energy

Auteurs: Susanne Baur, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, and Laurent Terray
Publié dans: Earth System Dynamics, Numéro 15, 307–322, 2024, 2024, ISSN 2190-4987
Éditeur: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/esd-15-307-2024

Extending MESMER-X: a spatially resolved Earth system model emulator for fire weather and soil moisture

Auteurs: Yann Quilcaille, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Publié dans: Earth Syst. Dynam., Numéro 14, 1333–1362, 2023, 2023
Éditeur: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/esd-14-1333-2023

Paris Agreement Overshooting – Reversibility, Climate Impacts and Adaptation Needs

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