Paris Agreement Overshooting – Reversibility, Climate Impacts and Adaptation Needs | PROVIDE | Project | Results | H2020 | CORDIS

Risultati finali

Release of complete set of communication materials and tools, incl. the public website-V 1.0

First version of full project communication chain as described in Communication Activities sec 236

Four review reports on key overshoot adaptation challenges in Iconic Regions and Cities

Potential socioecological tipping points irreversible impacts and spatial opportunities and conditions for integrating future adaptation measures in Iconic Regions and Cities including insights from first set of stakeholder meetings

Policy brief on PROVIDE findings of adaptation and mitigation implications of overshoot risks as input into the Global Stocktake

Version 0 of the CS Dashboard providing information on few variables with global coverage

Pubblicazioni

High resolution modelling of the urban heat island of 100 European cities

Autori: Dirk Lauwaet, Julie Berckmans, Hans Hooyberghs, Hendrik Wouters, Guy Driesen, Filip Lefebre, Koen De Ridder
Pubblicato in: Urban Climate, Numero Volume 54, March 2024, 101850, 2024, ISSN 2212-0955
Editore: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.101850

Risks of synchronized low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections

Autori: Kai Kornhuber, Corey Lesk, Carl F. Schleussner, Jonas Jägermeyr, Peter Pfleiderer & Radley M. Horton
Pubblicato in: Nature Communications, 2023, ISSN 2041-1723
Editore: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-38906-7

Uncompensated claims to fair emission space risk putting Paris Agreement goals out of reach

Autori: Gaurav Ganti, Matthew J Gidden, Christopher J Smith, Claire Fyson, Alexander Nauels, Keywan Riahi and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Pubblicato in: Environmental Research Letters, Numero Volume 18, Number 2, 2023, ISSN 1748-9326
Editore: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acb502

Representing natural climate variability in an event attribution context: Indo-Pakistani heatwave of 2022

Autori: Shruti Nath a b, Mathias Hauser b, Dominik L. Schumacher b, Quentin Lejeune a, Lukas Gudmundsson b, Yann Quilcaille b, Pierre Candela c, Fahad Saeed a, Sonia I. Seneviratne b, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner a d
Pubblicato in: Weather and Climate Extremes, Numero Volume 44, June 2024, 100671, 2024, ISSN 2212-0947
Editore: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100671

The zero emissions commitment and climate stabilization

Autori: Palazzo Corner et al.
Pubblicato in: Frontiers in Science, Numero Volume 1, 2023, ISSN 2813-6330
Editore: Frontiers Media SA
DOI: 10.3389/fsci.2023.1170744

Infrastructure failure cascades quintuple risk of storm and flood-induced service disruptions across the globe

Autori: Evelyn Mühlhofer David N. Bresch Elco E. Koks
Pubblicato in: One Earth, Numero VOLUME 7, ISSUE 4, P714-729, APRIL 19, 2024, 2024, ISSN 2590-3322
Editore: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/j.oneear.2024.03.010

Towards scenario representation of adaptive capacity for global climate change assessments

Autori: Andrijevic, M., Schleussner, CF., Crespo Cuaresma, J. et al.
Pubblicato in: Nat. Clim. Chang., Numero 13, 778–787 (2023), 2023, ISSN 1758-678X
Editore: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01725-1

Net zero targets in science and policy

Autori: Joeri Rogelj
Pubblicato in: Environmental Research Letters, Numero Volume 18, Number 2, 2023, ISSN 1748-9326
Editore: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acb4ae

Fire weather index data under historical and shared socioeconomic pathway projections in the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project from 1850 to 2100

Autori: Quilcaille, Y., Batibeniz, F., Ribeiro, A. F. S., Padrón, R. S., and Seneviratne, S. I.
Pubblicato in: Earth Syst. Sci. Data, Numero 15, 2153–2177, 2023, ISSN 1866-3508
Editore: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/essd-15-2153-2023

Irreversible loss in marine ecosystem habitability after a temperature overshoot

Autori: Santana-Falcon et al.
Pubblicato in: Communications Earth & Environment, Numero Volume 4, Number 343, 2023, ISSN 2662-4435
Editore: Nature Research
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-023-01002-1

Substantial reductions in non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions reductions implied by IPCC estimates of the remaining carbon budget

Autori: Joeri Rogelj & Robin D. Lamboll
Pubblicato in: Communications Earth & Environment, Numero 5, Article number: 35 (2024), 2024, ISSN 2662-4435
Editore: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-023-01168-8

Quantifying uncertainty in aggregated climate change risk assessments

Autori: Harrington, L.J., Schleussner, CF. & Otto, F.E.L.
Pubblicato in: Nature Communications, Numero 12, Article number: 7140, 2021, ISSN 2041-1723
Editore: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-27491-2

Ocean acidification in emission-driven temperature stabilization scenarios: the role of TCRE and non-CO2 greenhouse gases

Autori: Jens Terhaar; Thomas L. Frölicher; Fortunat Joos
Pubblicato in: Environmental Research Letters, Numero Volume 18, Number 2, 2023, ISSN 1748-9326
Editore: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acaf91

Changes in IPCC Scenario Assessment Emulators Between SR1.5 and AR6 Unraveled

Autori: Z. Nicholls, M. Meinshausen, J. Lewis, C. J. Smith, P. M. Forster, J. S. Fuglestvedt, J. Rogelj, J. S. Kikstra, K. Riahi, E. Byers
Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, Numero Volume49, Numero20, 2022, ISSN 0094-8276
Editore: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2022gl099788

Global glacier change in the 21st century: Every increase in temperature matters

Autori: Rounce, D. R., Hock, R., Maussion, F., Hugonnet, R., Kochtitzky, W., Huss, M., Berthier, E., Brinkerhoff, D., Compagno, L., Copland, L., Farinotti, D., Menounos, B. and McNabb, R. W
Pubblicato in: Science, Numero Volume 379, Numero 6627, 2023, Pagina/e 78–83, ISSN 1095-9203
Editore: AAAS
DOI: 10.1126/science.abo1324

Hydrologic interpretation of machine learning models for 10-daily streamflow simulation in climate sensitive upper Indus catchments

Autori: Haris Mushtaq, Taimoor Akhtar, Muhammad Zia ur Rahman Hashmi, Amjad Masood & Fahad Saeed
Pubblicato in: Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2024, ISSN 0177-798X
Editore: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-024-04932-8

Global protection from tropical cyclones by coastal ecosystems—past, present, and under climate change

Autori: Sarah Hülsen, Robert I McDonald, Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer, David N Bresch, Richard Sharp, Thomas Worthington and Chahan M Kropf
Pubblicato in: Environmental Research Letters, Numero Volume 18, Number 12, 2023, ISSN 1748-9326
Editore: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad00cd

Mapping the climate risk to urban forests at city scale

Autori: Esperon-Rodriguez, M.; Gallagher, R.V.; Souverijns, N.; Lejeune, Q.; Schleussner, C.-F.; Tjoelker, M.G.
Pubblicato in: Landscape and Urban Planning, 2024, ISSN 1872-6062
Editore: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2024.105090

Glacier projections sensitivity to temperature-index model choices and calibration strategies

Autori: Lilian Schuster; David R. Rounce; Fabien Maussion
Pubblicato in: Annals of Glaciology,, Numero 6, 2023, Pagina/e Pp 1-16, ISSN 1727-5644
Editore: University of Lethbridge, Canada
DOI: 10.1017/aog.2023.57

Limited reversal of regional climate signals in overshoot scenarios

Autori: Peter Pfleiderer, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, and Jana Sillmann
Pubblicato in: Environmental Research: Climate, Numero Climate 3 015005, 2024, ISSN 2752-5295
Editore: IOP Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/ad1c45

Adaptive emission reduction approach to reach any global warming target

Autori: Jens Terhaar; Thomas L. Frölicher; Mathias T. Aschwanden; Pierre Friedlingstein; Fortunat Joos
Pubblicato in: Nature Climate Change, Numero Volume 12, 2022, ISSN 1758-6798
Editore: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01537-9

Understanding the carbon dioxide removal range in 1.5 °C compatible and high overshoot pathways

Autori: Ruben Prütz, Jessica Strefler, Joeri Rogelj, and Sabine Fuss
Pubblicato in: Environmental Research Communications, Numero Volume 5, Number 4, 2023, ISSN 2515-7620
Editore: IOP Publishing Ltd
DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/accdba

Attributing observed permafrost warming in the northern hemisphere to anthropogenic climate change

Autori: Lukas Gudmundsson; Josefine Kirchner; Anne Gädeke; Jeannette Noetzli; Boris K Biskaborn
Pubblicato in: Environmental Research Letters, Numero Vol 17, Iss 9, p 095014 (2022), 2022, ISSN 1748-9326
Editore: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac8ec2

A multimodel analysis of post-Glasgow climate targets and feasibility challenges.

Autori: van de Ven, DJ., Mittal, S., Gambhir, A. et al.
Pubblicato in: Nat. Clim. Chang., Numero 13, 570–578 (2023), 2023, ISSN 1758-678X
Editore: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01661-0

An emission pathway classification reflecting the Paris Agreement climate objectives

Autori: Carl-Friedrich Schleussner; Gaurav Ganti; Joeri Rogelj; Matthew Gidden
Pubblicato in: Communications Earth & Environment, Numero 3, Article number: 135 (2022), 2022, ISSN 2662-4435
Editore: Nature Portfolio
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-022-00467-w

A taxonomy to map evidence on the co-benefits, challenges, and limits of carbon dioxide removal

Autori: Ruben Prütz, Sabine Fuss, Sarah Lück, Leon Stephan & Joeri Rogelj
Pubblicato in: Communications Earth & Environment, Numero 5, Article number: 197 (2024), 2024, ISSN 2662-4435
Editore: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01365-z

Assessment of a tiling energy budget approach in a land surface model, ORCHIDEE-MICT (r8205)

Autori: Yi Xi, Chunjing Qiu, Yuan Zhang, Dan Zhu, Shushi Peng, Gustaf Hugelius, Jinfeng Chang, Elodie Salmon, and Philippe Ciais
Pubblicato in: Geoscientific Model Development, 2024
Editore: Copernicus Publication
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-17-4727-2024

A perspective on the next generation of Earth system model scenarios: towards representative emission pathways (REPs)

Autori: Malte Meinshausen, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Kathleen Beyer, Greg Bodeker, Olivier Boucher, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Aïda Diongue-Niang, Fatima Driouech, Erich Fischer, Piers Forster, Michael Grose, Gerrit Hansen, Zeke Hausfather, Tatiana Ilyina, Jarmo S. Kikstra, Joyce Kimutai, Andrew D. King, June-Yi Lee, Chris Lennard, Tabea Lissner, Alexander Nauels, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, G
Pubblicato in: Geosci. Model Dev., Numero 17, 4533–4559, 2024, ISSN 1991-9603
Editore: Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024

Solar radiation modification challenges decarbonization with renewable solar energy

Autori: Susanne Baur, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, and Laurent Terray
Pubblicato in: Earth System Dynamics, Numero 15, 307–322, 2024, 2024, ISSN 2190-4987
Editore: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/esd-15-307-2024

Extending MESMER-X: a spatially resolved Earth system model emulator for fire weather and soil moisture

Autori: Yann Quilcaille, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Pubblicato in: Earth Syst. Dynam., Numero 14, 1333–1362, 2023, 2023
Editore: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/esd-14-1333-2023

Coupling a large-scale glacier and hydrological model (OGGM v1.5.3 and CWatM V1.08) – towards an improved representation of mountain water resources in global assessments

Autori: Sarah Hanus, Lilian Schuster, Peter Burek, Fabien Maussion, Yoshihide Wada, and Daniel Viviroli
Pubblicato in: Geoscientific Model Development, 2024
Editore: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-17-5123-2024

The deployment length of solar radiation modification: an interplay of mitigation, net-negative emissions and climate uncertainty

Autori: Susanne Baur, Alexander Nauels, Zebedee Nicholls, Benjamin M. Sanderson, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Pubblicato in: Earth System Dynamics, 2023
Editore: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/esd-14-367-2023

Why half a degree matters so much

Autori: Grete K. Hovelsrud; Helena Gonzales Lindberg
Pubblicato in: The Circle, 2024, Pagina/e 14-16
Editore: WWF

Fire Weather Compromises Large-scale Afforestation Scenarios

Autori: Jäger, Felix; Schwaab, Jonas; Quilcaille, Yann ; Windisch, Michael; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Frank, Stefan; Gusti, Mykola; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Lessa Derci Augustynczik, Andrey; Müller, Christoph; Narayan, Kanishka, B.; Padrón Flasher, Ryan ; Popp, Alexander; Van Vuuren, Detlef; Wögerer, Michael; Seneviratne, Sonia I.
Pubblicato in: 2023
Editore: ETHZ
DOI: 10.3929/ethz-b-000614820

A guide to scenarios for the PROVIDE project

Autori: Robin Lamboll; Joeri Rogelj; Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Pubblicato in: Numero 1, 2022
Editore: Climate Analytics
DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10511875.1

Future evolution of glaciers

Autori: Fabien Maussion, Zora Schirmeister and Lilian Schuster
Pubblicato in: 2023
Editore: OGGM-Edu Developers

Paris Agreement Overshooting – Reversibility, Climate Impacts and Adaptation Needs

Risultati finali

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