Paris Agreement Overshooting – Reversibility, Climate Impacts and Adaptation Needs | PROVIDE | Project | Results | H2020 | CORDIS

Rezultaty

Release of complete set of communication materials and tools, incl. the public website-V 1.0

First version of full project communication chain as described in Communication Activities sec 236

Four review reports on key overshoot adaptation challenges in Iconic Regions and Cities

Potential socioecological tipping points irreversible impacts and spatial opportunities and conditions for integrating future adaptation measures in Iconic Regions and Cities including insights from first set of stakeholder meetings

Policy brief on PROVIDE findings of adaptation and mitigation implications of overshoot risks as input into the Global Stocktake

Version 0 of the CS Dashboard providing information on few variables with global coverage

Publikacje

High resolution modelling of the urban heat island of 100 European cities

Autorzy: Dirk Lauwaet, Julie Berckmans, Hans Hooyberghs, Hendrik Wouters, Guy Driesen, Filip Lefebre, Koen De Ridder
Opublikowane w: Urban Climate, Numer Volume 54, March 2024, 101850, 2024, ISSN 2212-0955
Wydawca: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.101850

Risks of synchronized low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections

Autorzy: Kai Kornhuber, Corey Lesk, Carl F. Schleussner, Jonas Jägermeyr, Peter Pfleiderer & Radley M. Horton
Opublikowane w: Nature Communications, 2023, ISSN 2041-1723
Wydawca: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-38906-7

Uncompensated claims to fair emission space risk putting Paris Agreement goals out of reach

Autorzy: Gaurav Ganti, Matthew J Gidden, Christopher J Smith, Claire Fyson, Alexander Nauels, Keywan Riahi and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Opublikowane w: Environmental Research Letters, Numer Volume 18, Number 2, 2023, ISSN 1748-9326
Wydawca: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acb502

Representing natural climate variability in an event attribution context: Indo-Pakistani heatwave of 2022

Autorzy: Shruti Nath a b, Mathias Hauser b, Dominik L. Schumacher b, Quentin Lejeune a, Lukas Gudmundsson b, Yann Quilcaille b, Pierre Candela c, Fahad Saeed a, Sonia I. Seneviratne b, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner a d
Opublikowane w: Weather and Climate Extremes, Numer Volume 44, June 2024, 100671, 2024, ISSN 2212-0947
Wydawca: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100671

The zero emissions commitment and climate stabilization

Autorzy: Palazzo Corner et al.
Opublikowane w: Frontiers in Science, Numer Volume 1, 2023, ISSN 2813-6330
Wydawca: Frontiers Media SA
DOI: 10.3389/fsci.2023.1170744

Infrastructure failure cascades quintuple risk of storm and flood-induced service disruptions across the globe

Autorzy: Evelyn Mühlhofer David N. Bresch Elco E. Koks
Opublikowane w: One Earth, Numer VOLUME 7, ISSUE 4, P714-729, APRIL 19, 2024, 2024, ISSN 2590-3322
Wydawca: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/j.oneear.2024.03.010

Towards scenario representation of adaptive capacity for global climate change assessments

Autorzy: Andrijevic, M., Schleussner, CF., Crespo Cuaresma, J. et al.
Opublikowane w: Nat. Clim. Chang., Numer 13, 778–787 (2023), 2023, ISSN 1758-678X
Wydawca: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01725-1

Net zero targets in science and policy

Autorzy: Joeri Rogelj
Opublikowane w: Environmental Research Letters, Numer Volume 18, Number 2, 2023, ISSN 1748-9326
Wydawca: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acb4ae

Fire weather index data under historical and shared socioeconomic pathway projections in the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project from 1850 to 2100

Autorzy: Quilcaille, Y., Batibeniz, F., Ribeiro, A. F. S., Padrón, R. S., and Seneviratne, S. I.
Opublikowane w: Earth Syst. Sci. Data, Numer 15, 2153–2177, 2023, ISSN 1866-3508
Wydawca: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/essd-15-2153-2023

Irreversible loss in marine ecosystem habitability after a temperature overshoot

Autorzy: Santana-Falcon et al.
Opublikowane w: Communications Earth & Environment, Numer Volume 4, Number 343, 2023, ISSN 2662-4435
Wydawca: Nature Research
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-023-01002-1

Substantial reductions in non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions reductions implied by IPCC estimates of the remaining carbon budget

Autorzy: Joeri Rogelj & Robin D. Lamboll
Opublikowane w: Communications Earth & Environment, Numer 5, Article number: 35 (2024), 2024, ISSN 2662-4435
Wydawca: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-023-01168-8

Quantifying uncertainty in aggregated climate change risk assessments

Autorzy: Harrington, L.J., Schleussner, CF. & Otto, F.E.L.
Opublikowane w: Nature Communications, Numer 12, Article number: 7140, 2021, ISSN 2041-1723
Wydawca: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-27491-2

Ocean acidification in emission-driven temperature stabilization scenarios: the role of TCRE and non-CO2 greenhouse gases

Autorzy: Jens Terhaar; Thomas L. Frölicher; Fortunat Joos
Opublikowane w: Environmental Research Letters, Numer Volume 18, Number 2, 2023, ISSN 1748-9326
Wydawca: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acaf91

Changes in IPCC Scenario Assessment Emulators Between SR1.5 and AR6 Unraveled

Autorzy: Z. Nicholls, M. Meinshausen, J. Lewis, C. J. Smith, P. M. Forster, J. S. Fuglestvedt, J. Rogelj, J. S. Kikstra, K. Riahi, E. Byers
Opublikowane w: Geophysical Research Letters, Numer Volume49, Numer20, 2022, ISSN 0094-8276
Wydawca: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2022gl099788

Global glacier change in the 21st century: Every increase in temperature matters

Autorzy: Rounce, D. R., Hock, R., Maussion, F., Hugonnet, R., Kochtitzky, W., Huss, M., Berthier, E., Brinkerhoff, D., Compagno, L., Copland, L., Farinotti, D., Menounos, B. and McNabb, R. W
Opublikowane w: Science, Numer Volume 379, Numer 6627, 2023, Strona(/y) 78–83, ISSN 1095-9203
Wydawca: AAAS
DOI: 10.1126/science.abo1324

Hydrologic interpretation of machine learning models for 10-daily streamflow simulation in climate sensitive upper Indus catchments

Autorzy: Haris Mushtaq, Taimoor Akhtar, Muhammad Zia ur Rahman Hashmi, Amjad Masood & Fahad Saeed
Opublikowane w: Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2024, ISSN 0177-798X
Wydawca: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-024-04932-8

Global protection from tropical cyclones by coastal ecosystems—past, present, and under climate change

Autorzy: Sarah Hülsen, Robert I McDonald, Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer, David N Bresch, Richard Sharp, Thomas Worthington and Chahan M Kropf
Opublikowane w: Environmental Research Letters, Numer Volume 18, Number 12, 2023, ISSN 1748-9326
Wydawca: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad00cd

Mapping the climate risk to urban forests at city scale

Autorzy: Esperon-Rodriguez, M.; Gallagher, R.V.; Souverijns, N.; Lejeune, Q.; Schleussner, C.-F.; Tjoelker, M.G.
Opublikowane w: Landscape and Urban Planning, 2024, ISSN 1872-6062
Wydawca: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2024.105090

Glacier projections sensitivity to temperature-index model choices and calibration strategies

Autorzy: Lilian Schuster; David R. Rounce; Fabien Maussion
Opublikowane w: Annals of Glaciology,, Numer 6, 2023, Strona(/y) Pp 1-16, ISSN 1727-5644
Wydawca: University of Lethbridge, Canada
DOI: 10.1017/aog.2023.57

Limited reversal of regional climate signals in overshoot scenarios

Autorzy: Peter Pfleiderer, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, and Jana Sillmann
Opublikowane w: Environmental Research: Climate, Numer Climate 3 015005, 2024, ISSN 2752-5295
Wydawca: IOP Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/ad1c45

Adaptive emission reduction approach to reach any global warming target

Autorzy: Jens Terhaar; Thomas L. Frölicher; Mathias T. Aschwanden; Pierre Friedlingstein; Fortunat Joos
Opublikowane w: Nature Climate Change, Numer Volume 12, 2022, ISSN 1758-6798
Wydawca: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01537-9

Understanding the carbon dioxide removal range in 1.5 °C compatible and high overshoot pathways

Autorzy: Ruben Prütz, Jessica Strefler, Joeri Rogelj, and Sabine Fuss
Opublikowane w: Environmental Research Communications, Numer Volume 5, Number 4, 2023, ISSN 2515-7620
Wydawca: IOP Publishing Ltd
DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/accdba

Attributing observed permafrost warming in the northern hemisphere to anthropogenic climate change

Autorzy: Lukas Gudmundsson; Josefine Kirchner; Anne Gädeke; Jeannette Noetzli; Boris K Biskaborn
Opublikowane w: Environmental Research Letters, Numer Vol 17, Iss 9, p 095014 (2022), 2022, ISSN 1748-9326
Wydawca: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac8ec2

A multimodel analysis of post-Glasgow climate targets and feasibility challenges.

Autorzy: van de Ven, DJ., Mittal, S., Gambhir, A. et al.
Opublikowane w: Nat. Clim. Chang., Numer 13, 570–578 (2023), 2023, ISSN 1758-678X
Wydawca: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01661-0

An emission pathway classification reflecting the Paris Agreement climate objectives

Autorzy: Carl-Friedrich Schleussner; Gaurav Ganti; Joeri Rogelj; Matthew Gidden
Opublikowane w: Communications Earth & Environment, Numer 3, Article number: 135 (2022), 2022, ISSN 2662-4435
Wydawca: Nature Portfolio
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-022-00467-w

A taxonomy to map evidence on the co-benefits, challenges, and limits of carbon dioxide removal

Autorzy: Ruben Prütz, Sabine Fuss, Sarah Lück, Leon Stephan & Joeri Rogelj
Opublikowane w: Communications Earth & Environment, Numer 5, Article number: 197 (2024), 2024, ISSN 2662-4435
Wydawca: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01365-z

Assessment of a tiling energy budget approach in a land surface model, ORCHIDEE-MICT (r8205)

Autorzy: Yi Xi, Chunjing Qiu, Yuan Zhang, Dan Zhu, Shushi Peng, Gustaf Hugelius, Jinfeng Chang, Elodie Salmon, and Philippe Ciais
Opublikowane w: Geoscientific Model Development, 2024
Wydawca: Copernicus Publication
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-17-4727-2024

A perspective on the next generation of Earth system model scenarios: towards representative emission pathways (REPs)

Autorzy: Malte Meinshausen, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Kathleen Beyer, Greg Bodeker, Olivier Boucher, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Aïda Diongue-Niang, Fatima Driouech, Erich Fischer, Piers Forster, Michael Grose, Gerrit Hansen, Zeke Hausfather, Tatiana Ilyina, Jarmo S. Kikstra, Joyce Kimutai, Andrew D. King, June-Yi Lee, Chris Lennard, Tabea Lissner, Alexander Nauels, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, G
Opublikowane w: Geosci. Model Dev., Numer 17, 4533–4559, 2024, ISSN 1991-9603
Wydawca: Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024

Solar radiation modification challenges decarbonization with renewable solar energy

Autorzy: Susanne Baur, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, and Laurent Terray
Opublikowane w: Earth System Dynamics, Numer 15, 307–322, 2024, 2024, ISSN 2190-4987
Wydawca: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/esd-15-307-2024

Extending MESMER-X: a spatially resolved Earth system model emulator for fire weather and soil moisture

Autorzy: Yann Quilcaille, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Opublikowane w: Earth Syst. Dynam., Numer 14, 1333–1362, 2023, 2023
Wydawca: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/esd-14-1333-2023

Coupling a large-scale glacier and hydrological model (OGGM v1.5.3 and CWatM V1.08) – towards an improved representation of mountain water resources in global assessments

Autorzy: Sarah Hanus, Lilian Schuster, Peter Burek, Fabien Maussion, Yoshihide Wada, and Daniel Viviroli
Opublikowane w: Geoscientific Model Development, 2024
Wydawca: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-17-5123-2024

The deployment length of solar radiation modification: an interplay of mitigation, net-negative emissions and climate uncertainty

Autorzy: Susanne Baur, Alexander Nauels, Zebedee Nicholls, Benjamin M. Sanderson, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Opublikowane w: Earth System Dynamics, 2023
Wydawca: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/esd-14-367-2023

Why half a degree matters so much

Autorzy: Grete K. Hovelsrud; Helena Gonzales Lindberg
Opublikowane w: The Circle, 2024, Strona(/y) 14-16
Wydawca: WWF

Fire Weather Compromises Large-scale Afforestation Scenarios

Autorzy: Jäger, Felix; Schwaab, Jonas; Quilcaille, Yann ; Windisch, Michael; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Frank, Stefan; Gusti, Mykola; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Lessa Derci Augustynczik, Andrey; Müller, Christoph; Narayan, Kanishka, B.; Padrón Flasher, Ryan ; Popp, Alexander; Van Vuuren, Detlef; Wögerer, Michael; Seneviratne, Sonia I.
Opublikowane w: 2023
Wydawca: ETHZ
DOI: 10.3929/ethz-b-000614820

A guide to scenarios for the PROVIDE project

Autorzy: Robin Lamboll; Joeri Rogelj; Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Opublikowane w: Numer 1, 2022
Wydawca: Climate Analytics
DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10511875.1

Future evolution of glaciers

Autorzy: Fabien Maussion, Zora Schirmeister and Lilian Schuster
Opublikowane w: 2023
Wydawca: OGGM-Edu Developers

Paris Agreement Overshooting – Reversibility, Climate Impacts and Adaptation Needs

Rezultaty

Publikacje

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