Unpacking populism: How personal factors shape political views
With the election of Donald Trump in the United States and the British exit from the European Union (Brexit), populism was one of the words most frequently used by political commentators in 2016. Commonly used as a pejorative, populism refers to the engagement of ordinary people in the political process. The EU-funded EXTREME project used unique data sets and innovative techniques to explore the factors that influence populist perspectives in contemporary and historical contexts and interpreted how populism is linked to extremism. EXTREME focused on three distinct topics. Using an extensive data set related to work history, the project analysed how career outlook correlated with voting patterns in the 2016 US election. Data on attitudes towards corporal punishment shed light on populist tendencies. Finally, granular data about bombing patterns in World War II and subsequent resistance led to insights on how to resist extremism.
Analysing Trump’s appeal
Researchers studied how personal histories and economic shocks influenced voters’ decision to support Donald Trump. Using a data set of 40 million résumés from 2010-2016 – the largest available collection of such information available in the US – the project matched education and career information with postcodes and voting variables. An occupational transition matrix to compute average levels of career values by location and in relation to voting behaviour proved fruitful. According to project coordinator Maria Petrova: “A highlight of the project was learning that individual employment and educational histories affected populist vote. Thus, computing career values and studying their implications for other countries would be of the utmost importance/the first priority.”
Corporal punishment and populism
A key question in understanding populism involves uncovering how negative personal experiences influence educational and career outcomes. Petrova sought to discover how corporal punishment in UK schools affected multiple outcomes, including education, employment, antisocial behaviour, voting for the populist UK Independence Party UKIP and Brexit. Due to regulations that limited access to data in the UK, the project switched its focus to the study of corporal punishment in the US. Based on a survey from 2010, about 70 % of American voters support corporal punishment. Another survey indicates that 42 % of Brexit votes support corporal punishment in schools.
Resisting extremism in WWII
Hand in hand with understanding the root causes of populism is understanding what keeps populist views from devolving into extremism. Petrova used data on treason cases, BBC radio signal strength, daily bombing and wartime daily weather to connect resistance to aggression with exposure to bombing and BBC signal strength. This research sheds light on what makes people actively resist extremist regimes. Using a regression discontinuity design and an instrumental variable approach to predict daily bombing, results confirmed that higher levels of bombing correlated with higher levels of domestic opposition and lower morale among German pilots. These results were amplified in areas with stronger BBC radio reception. Understanding the link between populism and extremism is paramount to ensuring the safety and well-being of citizens. By studying how personal experiences and career outlook influence political views, EXTREME advances our understanding of populism. By studying resistance to extremism despite the risk of personal cost, the project sheds light on how society can become more resilient.
Keywords
EXTREME, populism, corporal punishment, extremism, Brexit, WWII, Donald Trump, UKIP