Our common future ocean in the Earth system – quantifying coupled cycles of carbon, oxygen, and nutrients for determining and achieving safe operating spaces with respect to tipping points | COMFORT | Project | Results | H2020 | CORDIS

Livrables

The data management plan (DMP) will be conform with international standards as set by e.g. the Digital Curation Centre (DCC), address what data will be generated, what best practises will be followed and applied, how data will be curated, shared and accessed within the consortium, what measures are taking into account to protect Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) and when, how and where data will be long-term preserved and published.

Plan for Exploitation and Dissemination of results (PEDR), including communication plan

To achieve maximizing societal and policy impact as requested in the topic call COMFORT will facilitate for the best possible exploitation of project results by the different stakeholders see DoA section 22a

Report on constraining the CMIP6 model ensemble and appropriate model weighting schemes.

Report related to task 62

Report on reversibility and irreversibility of tipping points

Report related to task 24

Report on assessment of the new processes through simulations with new parameterisations

Report related to task 13

Report on dynamics of processes that can trigger tipping points from sensitivity studies

Report related to task 21

Summarized report from clustering events with other projects

The deliverable relates to Task 97 Thematic clustering and exchange with related H2020 projects

Report on derived impact metrics and multiple mitigation targets

Report related to task 5.1

Report on past and future vulnerabilities of selected fish stocks (Arctic stocks, tuna stocks, Indian-coast stocks) to tipping points

Report related to task 33

Report on identified processes behind tipping points, abrupt changes and hot-spots derived

Report related to task 12

Report on initial analysis of critical thresholds and rates of changes in selected physical-chemical stressors (pH, O2, NPP, temperature, salinity, saturation state for calcite & aragonite) based on current knowledge
Report on identified tipping points, abrupt changes and hot-spots from observations and models, including an assessment of their probability

Report related to task 11

Report on past and future tipping points in ecosystem components (low- to mid-trophic carbon flow and end-to-end tipping points up to highest trophic level)

Report related to task 32

Report on ecological and evolutionary dimensions of tipping points

Report related to task 43

List of communication contact points at all partner institutions

The list will enable smooth communications between partners and enable a smooth decision making progress (see also DoA section 3.2).

Report on proximity and early warning indicators of tipping points

Report related to task 23

Report on available observational data and selected model data

Report related to tasks 82 and 83

Report on future risks of tipping points and the related impacts

Report related to task 44

Report on potential, risks and side effects of mitigation measures

Report related to task 52

Report of the interaction with the SRG during the Special session at kick-off and annual project meetings

Report related to tasks 71 and 74

Report on the role of extreme conditions and variability for crossing thresholds

Report related to task 22

Report on past and future tipping points in habitats (surface ocean, mesopelagic, and deep habitats)

Report related to task 31

Report on feasibility of investigated mitigation methods and scenario choices to meet multiple climate targets; this will inform WP7

Report related to task 53

Report on robustness of ESM simulations and uncertainties with respect to thresholds defined by the impact metrics developed in WP6.

Report related to task 62

Policy event

Policy event related to task 74

Run selected mitigation scenarios in ESMs, synthesis report on ESM projections with and without mitigation pathways

Report related to task 63

First version of project's data portal

Related to tasks 8.1, 8.3, and 8.4. Web-portal.

Web-based SRG interaction-platform

Related to task 7.2.

Dissemination materials

Dissemination materials related to task 72 and task 71

Vulnerability maps for diverse habitats and ecosystems

Vulnerability maps related to task 4.2.

Additional high frequency ESM output

Related to task 6.1 (mainly for selected 2-D fields of model output).

Methods identified for tipping point intercomparison complient for implementation into ESMValTool

Report and/or code to be forwarded also to ESMValTool community. Related to task 1.1.

Publications

Hotspots and drivers of compound marine heatwaves and low net primary production extremes

Auteurs: Le Grix N., Zscheischler J., Rodgers K.B., Yamaguchi R., Frolicher T.L.
Publié dans: Biogeosciences, Numéro 19(24), 2023, ISSN 1726-4170
Éditeur: European Geosciences Union (EGU).
DOI: 10.5194/bg-19-5807-2022

Ocean planning for species on the move provides substantial benefits and requires few trade-offs

Auteurs: M. L. Pinsky, L. A. Rogers, J. W. Morley, T. L. Frölicher
Publié dans: Science Advances, Numéro 6/50, 2020, Page(s) eabb8428, ISSN 2375-2548
Éditeur: American Association for the Advancement of Science
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abb8428

Contrasting drivers and trends of ocean acidification in the subarctic Atlantic

Auteurs: Fiz F. Pérez, Jon Olafsson, Solveig R. Ólafsdóttir, Marcos Fontela, Taro Takahashi
Publié dans: Scientific Reports, Numéro 11/1, 2021, ISSN 2045-2322
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-93324-3

Impact of Remineralization Profile Shape on the Air‐Sea Carbon Balance

Auteurs: Jonathan Maitland Lauderdale, B. B. Cael
Publié dans: Geophysical Research Letters, Numéro 48/7, 2021, ISSN 0094-8276
Éditeur: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091746

Circulation timescales of Atlantic Water in the Arctic Ocean determined from anthropogenic radionuclides

Auteurs: Anne-Marie Wefing, Núria Casacuberta, Marcus Christl, Nicolas Gruber, John N. Smith
Publié dans: Ocean Science, Numéro 17/1, 2021, Page(s) 111-129, ISSN 1812-0792
Éditeur: Göttingen: Copernicus Publ.
DOI: 10.5194/os-17-111-2021

Possible future scenarios for two major Arctic Gateways connecting Subarctic and Arctic marine systems: I. Climate and physical–chemical oceanography

Auteurs: Drinkwater, Ken; Harada, Naomi; Nishino, Shigeto; Chierici, Melissa; Danielson, Seth L
Publié dans: ICES Journal od Marine Science, Numéro 3, 2021, ISSN 1095-9289
Éditeur: Oxford University Press
DOI: 10.1093/icesjms/fsab182

Biogeochemical extremes and compound events in the ocean

Auteurs: Gruber, N., Boyd, P. W., Frölicher, T. L., & Vogt, M.
Publié dans: Nature, 2022, ISSN 0028-0836
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-03981-7

Compound high-temperature and low-chlorophyll extremes in the ocean over the satellite period

Auteurs: Natacha Le Grix, Jakob Zscheischler, Charlotte Laufkötter, Cecile S. Rousseaux, Thomas L. Frölicher
Publié dans: Biogeosciences, Numéro 18/6, 2021, Page(s) 2119-2137, ISSN 1726-4189
Éditeur: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/bg-18-2119-2021

Sharing the Burdens of Climate Mitigation and Adaptation: Incorporating Fairness Perspectives into Policy Optimization Models

Auteurs: Żebrowski, P.; Dieckmann, U.; Brännström, Å.; Franklin, O.; Rovenskaya, E.
Publié dans: Sustainability, Numéro 1, 2022, ISSN 2071-1050
Éditeur: MDPI Open Access Publishing
DOI: 10.3390/su14073737

Improved Arctic Sea Ice Freeboard Retrieval From Satellite Altimetry Using Optimized Sea Surface Decorrelation Scales

Auteurs: Jack C. Landy, Jerome Bouffard, Chris Wilson, Stefanie Rynders, Yevgeny Aksenov, Michel Tsamados
Publié dans: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 2021, ISSN 2169-9275
Éditeur: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2021jc017466

Twenty-first century ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and upper-ocean nutrient and primary production decline from CMIP6 model projections

Auteurs: Lester Kwiatkowski, Olivier Torres, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Aumont, Matthew Chamberlain, James R. Christian, John P. Dunne, Marion Gehlen, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G. John, Andrew Lenton, Hongmei Li, Nicole S. Lovenduski, James C. Orr, Julien Palmieri, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Charles A. Stock, Alessandro Tagliabue, Yohei Takano, Jerry Tjiputra, Katsuya Toyama, Hiroyu
Publié dans: Biogeosciences, Numéro 17/13, 2020, Page(s) 3439-3470, ISSN 1726-4189
Éditeur: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020

Log-skew-normality of ocean turbulence

Auteurs: B. B. Cael; Ali Mashayek
Publié dans: Physical Review Letters, 2021, ISSN 1079-7114
Éditeur: American Physical Society
DOI: 10.1103/physrevlett.126.224502

Sparse observations induce large biases in estimates of the global ocean CO 2 sink: An ocean model subsampling experiment

Auteurs: Hauck J., Nissen C., Landschutzer P., Rodenbeck C., Bushinsky S., Olsen A.
Publié dans: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Numéro 381(2249), 20220063, 2023, ISSN 1364-503X
Éditeur: Royal Society of London
DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2022.0063

Information content of absorption spectra and implications for ocean color inversion

Auteurs: B. B. Cael, Alison Chase, Emmanuel Boss
Publié dans: Applied Optics, Numéro 59/13, 2020, Page(s) 3971, ISSN 1559-128X
Éditeur: OSA Publishing
DOI: 10.1364/AO.389189

Tracking Improvement in Simulated Marine Biogeochemistry Between CMIP5 and CMIP6

Auteurs: Roland Séférian, Sarah Berthet, Andrew Yool, Julien Palmiéri, Laurent Bopp, Alessandro Tagliabue, Lester Kwiatkowski, Olivier Aumont, James Christian, John Dunne, Marion Gehlen, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G. John, Hongmei Li, Matthew C. Long, Jessica Y. Luo, Hideyuki Nakano, Anastasia Romanou, Jörg Schwinger, Charles Stock, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Yohei Takano, Jerry Tjiputra, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Mic
Publié dans: Current Climate Change Reports, Numéro 6/3, 2020, Page(s) 95-119, ISSN 2198-6061
Éditeur: Springer Nature Switzerland AG
DOI: 10.1007/s40641-020-00160-0

Clarifying the Relation between AMOC and Thermal Wind: Application to the Centennial Variability in a Coupled Climate Model

Auteurs: Robin Waldman, Joël Hirschi, Aurore Voldoire, Christophe Cassou, Rym Msadek
Publié dans: Journal of Physical Oceanography, Numéro 51/2, 2021, Page(s) 343-364, ISSN 0022-3670
Éditeur: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jpo-d-19-0284.1

Restructuring of plankton genomic biogeography in the surface ocean under climate change

Auteurs: Paul Frémont, Marion Gehlen, Mathieu Vrac, Jade Leconte, Tom O. Delmont, Patrick Wincker, Daniele Iudicone & Olivier Jaillon
Publié dans: Nature Climate Change, 2022, ISSN 1758-678X
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01314-8

Constraining Global Marine Iron Sources and Ligand‐Mediated Scavenging Fluxes With GEOTRACES Dissolved Iron Measurements in an Ocean Biogeochemical Model

Auteurs: Christopher J. Somes, Andrew W. Dale, Klaus Wallmann, Florian Scholz, Wanxuan Yao, Andreas Oschlies, Juan Muglia, Andreas Schmittner, Eric P. Achterberg
Publié dans: Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Numéro 35/8, 2021, ISSN 0886-6236
Éditeur: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2021gb006948

Ocean Biogeochemical Signatures of the North Pacific Blob

Auteurs: Samuel C. Mogen, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Allysa R. Dallmann, Luke Gregor, Adrienne J. Sutton, Steven J. Bograd, Nathali Cordero Quiros, Emanuele Di Lorenzo, Elliott L. Hazen, Michael G. Jacox, Mercedes Pozo Buil, Stephen Yeager
Publié dans: Geophysical research Letters, 2022, ISSN 0094-8276
Éditeur: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2021gl096938

How many independent quantities can be extracted from ocean color?

Auteurs: Cael B.B., Bisson K., Boss E., Erickson Z.K.
Publié dans: Limnology And Oceanography Letters, Numéro 8(4), 2023, ISSN 2378-2242
Éditeur: John Wiley and Sons Inc
DOI: 10.1002/lol2.10319

The Sensitivity of the Marine Carbonate System to Regional Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement

Auteurs: Daniel J. Burt; Friederike Fröb; Tatiana Ilyina
Publié dans: Frontiers in Climate, 2021, ISSN 2624-9553
Éditeur: Frontiers
DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2021.624075

What Controls the Large-Scale Efficiency of Carbon Transfer Through the Ocean's Mesopelagic Zone? Insights From a New, Mechanistic Model (MSPACMAM)

Auteurs: Dinauer A., Laufkotter C., Doney S.C., Joos F.
Publié dans: Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Numéro 36(10), e2021GB007131, 2022, ISSN 0886-6236
Éditeur: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2021gb007131

Current and projected patterns of warming and marine heatwaves in the Southern Indian Ocean

Auteurs: Azarian C., Bopp L., Pietri A., Sallee J.-B., d'Ovidio F.
Publié dans: Progress in Oceanography, Numéro 215, 103036, 2023, ISSN 0079-6611
Éditeur: Pergamon Press Ltd.
DOI: 10.1016/j.pocean.2023.103036

Timing and magnitude of climate-driven range shifts in transboundary fish stocks challenge their management

Auteurs: Juliano Palacios-Abrantes, Thomas L. Frölicher, Gabriel Reygondeau, U. Rashid Sumaila, Alessandro Tagliabue, Colette C. C. Wabnitz, William W. L. Cheung
Publié dans: Global Change Biology, 2022, ISSN 1354-1013
Éditeur: Blackwell Publishing Inc.
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16058

The rise of novelty in marine ecosystems: The Baltic Sea case

Auteurs: Yosr Ammar, Susa Niiranen, Saskia A. Otto, Christian Möllmann, Walter Finsinger, Thorsten Blenckner
Publié dans: Global Change Biology, 2021, ISSN 1354-1013
Éditeur: Blackwell Publishing Inc.
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15503

Marine heatwaves exacerbate climate change impacts for fisheries in the northeast Pacific

Auteurs: William W. L. Cheung, Thomas L. Frölicher
Publié dans: Scientific Reports, Numéro 10/1, 2020, ISSN 2045-2322
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-63650-z

State-dependence of Cenozoic thermal extremes

Auteurs: Cael B.B., Goodwin P.
Publié dans: Communications Earth and Environment, Numéro 4(1), 88, 2023, ISSN 2662-4435
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-023-00753-1

Marine Ecosystem Changepoints Spread Under Ocean Warming in an Earth System Model

Auteurs: B. B. Cael, Charlotte Begouen Demeaux, Stephanie Henson, Charles A. Stock, Fernando González Taboada, Jasmin G. John, Andrew D. Barton
Publié dans: Journal of Geophyscial Research: Biogeosciences, 2022, ISSN 2169-8961
Éditeur: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2021jg006571

Automated Plankton Classification With a Dynamic Optimization and Adaptation Cycle.

Auteurs: Conradt J., Borner G., Lopez-Urrutia A., Mollmann C., Moyano M.
Publié dans: Frontiers in Marine Science, Numéro 9, 2022, ISSN 2296-7745
Éditeur: Frontiers Media S.A.
DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2022.868420

North Atlantic Western Boundary Currents Are Intense Dissolved Organic Carbon Streams

Auteurs: Marcos Fontela, Fiz F. Pérez, Herlé Mercier, Pascale Lherminier
Publié dans: Frontiers in Marine Science, Numéro 7, 2020, ISSN 2296-7745
Éditeur: Frontiers
DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2020.593757

Reconciling the Size‐Dependence of Marine Particle Sinking Speed

Auteurs: B. B. Cael, Emma L. Cavan, Gregory L. Britten
Publié dans: Geophysical Research Letters, Numéro 48/5, 2021, ISSN 0094-8276
Éditeur: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091771

Feedbacks Between Ocean Productivity and Organic Iron Complexation in Reaction to Changes in Ocean Iron Supply

Auteurs: Völker, Christoph; Ye, Ying
Publié dans: Frontiers in Marine Science, 2022, ISSN 2296-7745
Éditeur: Frontiers
DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2022.777334

OceanSODA-ETHZ: a global gridded data set of the surface ocean carbonate system for seasonal to decadal studies of ocean acidification

Auteurs: Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber
Publié dans: Earth System Science Data, Numéro 13/2, 2021, Page(s) 777-808, ISSN 1866-3516
Éditeur: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/essd-13-777-2021

The Risk for Novel and Disappearing Environmental Conditions in the Baltic Sea

Auteurs: Thorsten Blenckner, Yosr Ammar, Bärbel Müller-Karulis, Susa Niiranen, Lars Arneborg, Qiang Li
Publié dans: Frontiers in Marine Science, Numéro 8, 2021, ISSN 2296-7745
Éditeur: Frontiers
DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2021.745722

Future phytoplankton diversity in a changing climate

Auteurs: Stephanie A. Henson, B. B. Cael, Stephanie R. Allen, Stephanie Dutkiewicz
Publié dans: Nature Communications, Numéro 12/1, 2021, ISSN 2041-1723
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-25699-w

The Northeast Atlantic is running out of excess carbonate in the horizon of cold-water corals communities

Auteurs: Marcos Fontela, Fiz F. Pérez, Lidia I. Carracedo, Xosé A. Padín, Antón Velo, Maribel I. García-Ibañez, Pascale Lherminier
Publié dans: Scientific Reports, Numéro 10/1, 2020, ISSN 2045-2322
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-71793-2

Significant variability of structure and predictability of Arctic Ocean surface pathways affects basin-wide connectivity

Auteurs: Chris Wilson, Yevgeny Aksenov, Stefanie Rynders, Stephen J. Kelly, Thomas Krumpen, Andrew C. Coward
Publié dans: Communications Earth & Environment, Numéro 2/1, 2021, ISSN 2662-4435
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-021-00237-0

A committed fourfold increase in ocean oxygen loss

Auteurs: Andreas Oschlies
Publié dans: Nature Communications, Numéro 12/1, 2021, ISSN 2041-1723
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22584-4

Projecting coral responses to intensifying marine heatwaves under ocean acidification

Auteurs: Shannon G. Klein, Nathan R. Geraldi, Andrea Anton, Sebastian Schmidt-Roach, Maren Ziegler, Maha J. Cziesielski, Cecilia Martin, Nils Rädecker, Thomas L. Frölicher, Peter J. Mumby, John M. Pandolfi, David J. Suggett, Christian R. Voolstra, Manuel Aranda, Carlos. M. Duarte
Publié dans: Global change Biology, 2021, ISSN 1354-1013
Éditeur: Blackwell Publishing Inc.
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15818

Climate change, tropical fisheries and prospects for sustainable development

Auteurs: Vicky W. Y. Lam, Edward H. Allison, Johann D. Bell, Jessica Blythe, William W. L. Cheung, Thomas L. Frölicher, Maria A. Gasalla, U. Rashid Sumaila
Publié dans: Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Numéro 1/9, 2020, Page(s) 440-454, ISSN 2662-138X
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s43017-020-0071-9

Open Ocean Particle Flux Variability From Surface to Seafloor

Auteurs: B. B. Cael, Kelsey Bisson, Maureen Conte, Manon T. Duret, Christopher L. Follett, Stephanie A. Henson, Makio C. Honda, Morten H. Iversen, David M. Karl, Richard S. Lampitt, Colleen B. Mouw, Frank Muller-Karger, Corinne A. Pebody, Kenneth L. Smith Jr., David Talmy
Publié dans: Geophysical Research Letters, 2021, ISSN 0094-8276
Éditeur: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2021gl092895

Global Carbon Budget 2022

Auteurs: Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Luke Gregor, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Ramdane Alkama, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bel
Publié dans: Earth System Science Data, Numéro 14(11), 2022, ISSN 1866-3508
Éditeur: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022

Carbon Cycle Responses to Changes in Weathering and the Long-Term Fate of Stable Carbon Isotopes

Auteurs: Jeltsch-Thommes A., Joos F.
Publié dans: Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, Numéro 38(2), e2022PA004577, 2023, ISSN 2572-4525
Éditeur: John Wiley and Sons Inc
DOI: 10.1029/2022pa004577

An evolutionary explanation of female-biased sexual size dimorphism in North Sea plaice, Pleuronectes platessa L.

Auteurs: Mollet F.M., Enberg K., Boukal D.S., Rijnsdorp A.D., Dieckmann U.
Publié dans: Ecology and Evolution, Numéro 13(1), e8070, 2023, ISSN 2045-7758
Éditeur: John Wiley and Sons Ltd
DOI: 10.1002/ece3.8070

Cold-water corals in the Subpolar North Atlantic Ocean exposed to aragonite undersaturation if the 2 °C global warming target is not met

Auteurs: Maribel I. García-Ibáñez, Nicholas R. Bates, Dorothee C.E. Bakker, Marcos Fontela, Antón Velo
Publié dans: Global and Planetary Change, Numéro 201, 2021, Page(s) 103480, ISSN 0921-8181
Éditeur: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2021.103480

The climate sensitivity of northern Greenland fjords is amplified through sea-ice damming

Auteurs: Christian Stranne, Johan Nilsson, Adam Ulfsbo, Matt O’Regan, Helen K. Coxall, Lorenz Meire, Julia Muchowski, Larry A. Mayer, Volker Brüchert, Jonas Fredriksson, Brett Thornton, Julek Chawarski, Gabriel West, Elizabeth Weidner, Martin Jakobsson
Publié dans: Communications Earth & Environment, Numéro 2/1, 2021, ISSN 2662-4435
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-021-00140-8

Simulated stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during the Last Glacial Maximum

Auteurs: Frerk Pöppelmeier, Jeemijn Scheen, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Thomas F. Stocker
Publié dans: Climate of the Past, Numéro 17/2, 2021, Page(s) 615-632, ISSN 1814-9332
Éditeur: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/cp-17-615-2021

Hotter and Weaker Mediterranean Outflow as a Response to Basin-Wide Alterations

Auteurs: Jesús García-Lafuente, Simone Sammartino, I. Emma Huertas, Susana Flecha, Ricardo F. Sánchez-Leal, Cristina Naranjo, Irene Nadal, María Jesús Bellanco
Publié dans: Frontiers in Marine Science, Numéro 8, 2021, ISSN 2296-7745
Éditeur: Frontiers
DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2021.613444

Destabilisation of the Subpolar North Atlantic prior to the Little Ice Age

Auteurs: Beatriz Arellano-Nava, Paul R. Halloran, Chris A. Boulton, James Scourse, Paul G. Butler, David J. Reynolds & Timothy M. Lenton
Publié dans: Nature Communications, 2022, ISSN 2041-1723
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-32653-x

Compound marine heatwaves and ocean acidity extremes

Auteurs: Friedrich A. Burger, Jens Terhaar & Thomas L. Frölicher
Publié dans: Nature Communications, 2022, ISSN 2041-1723
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-32120-7

Cascading effects augment the direct impact of CO2 on phytoplankton growth in a biogeochemical model

Auteurs: Miriam Seifert, Cara Nissen, Björn Rost, Judith Hauck
Publié dans: Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, Numéro 23251026, 2022, ISSN 2325-1026
Éditeur: Elementa
DOI: 10.1525/elementa.2021.00104

Linking observed changes in pelagic catches to temperature and oxygen in the Eastern Tropical Pacific

Auteurs: Clarke T.M., Wabnitz C.C.C., Frolicher T.L., Reygondeau G., Pauly D., Cheung W.W.L
Publié dans: Fish and Fisheries, Numéro 23(6), 2023, ISSN 1467-2979
Éditeur: John Wiley and Sons Inc
DOI: 10.1111/faf.12694

Riverine nitrogen supply to the global ocean and its limited impact on global marine primary production: a feedback study using an Earth system model

Auteurs: Miriam Tivig, David P. Keller, Andreas Oschlies
Publié dans: Biogeosciences, Numéro 18/19, 2021, Page(s) 5327-5350, ISSN 1726-4189
Éditeur: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/bg-18-5327-2021

Persistent Uncertainties in Ocean Net Primary Production Climate Change Projections at Regional Scales Raise Challenges for Assessing Impacts on Ecosystem Services

Auteurs: Alessandro Tagliabue; Lester Kwiatkowski; Laurent Bopp; Momme Butenschön; William W. L. Cheung; Matthieu Lengaigne; Jérôme Vialard
Publié dans: Frontiers in Climate, 2021, ISSN 2624-9553
Éditeur: Frontiers
DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2021.738224

Drivers of surface ocean acidity extremes in an Earth system model

Auteurs: Friedrich A. Burger, Thomas L. Frölicher
Publié dans: Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 2023, ISSN 1944-9224
Éditeur: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2023gb007785

Decadal acidification in Atlantic and Mediterranean water masses exchanging at the Strait of Gibraltar

Auteurs: Susana Flecha, Fiz F. Pérez, Akihiko Murata, Ahmed Makaoui, I. Emma Huertas
Publié dans: Scientific Reports, Numéro 9/1, 2019, ISSN 2045-2322
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-52084-x

Marine high temperature extremes amplify the impacts of climate change on fish and fisheries

Auteurs: William W. L. Cheung, Thomas L. Frölicher, Vicky W. Y. Lam, Muhammed A. Oyinlola, Gabriel Reygondeau, U. Rashid Sumaila, Travis C. Tai, Lydia C. L. Teh, Colette C. C. Wabnitz
Publié dans: Science Advances, Numéro 7/40, 2021, ISSN 2375-2548
Éditeur: American Association for the Advancement of Science
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abh0895

A unified theory for organic matter accumulation

Auteurs: Emily J. Zakem, B. B. Cael, Naomi M. Levine
Publié dans: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Numéro 118/6, 2021, Page(s) e2016896118, ISSN 0027-8424
Éditeur: National Academy of Sciences
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2016896118

Can we project changes in fish abundance and distribution in response to climate?

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Diazotrophy as a key driver of the response of marine net primary productivity to climate change

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Local Drivers of Marine Heatwaves: A Global Analysis With an Earth System Model

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Magnitude and uncertainty of nitrous oxide emissions from North America based on bottom-up and top-down approaches: Informing future research and national inventories

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Trends and variability in the ocean carbon sink

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Advancing real-time pH sensing capabilities to monitor coastal acidification as measured in a productive and dynamic estuary (Ría de Arousa, NW Spain)

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Emit now, mitigate later? Earth system reversibility under overshoots of different magnitudes and durations

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Stratification constrains future heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean between 30°S and 55°S

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Ocean Heat Uptake Efficiency Increase Since 1970

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Climate change impacts the vertical structure of marine ecosystem thermal ranges

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Climate warming is predicted to enhance the negative effects of harvesting on high‐latitude lake fish

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Counteracting Contributions of the Upper and Lower Meridional Overturning Limbs to the North Atlantic Nutrient Budgets: Enhanced Imbalance in 2010

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Contrasting projections of the ENSO-driven CO2 flux variability in the equatorial Pacific under high-warming scenario

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Radiocarbon in the Land and Ocean Components of the Community Earth System Model

Auteurs: Tobias Frischknecht, Altug Ekici, Fortunat Joos
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Ocean Acidification Effect on the Iron-Gallic Acid Redox Interaction in Seawater

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The Pan-Arctic Continental Slope as an Intensifying Conveyer Belt for Nutrients in the Central Arctic Ocean (1985–2015)

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Arctic Ocean acidification over the 21st century co-driven by anthropogenic carbon increases and freshening in the CMIP6 model ensemble

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Failures to disagree are essential for environmental science to effectively influence policy development

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High trophic level feedbacks on global ocean carbon uptake and marine ecosystem dynamics under climate change

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Possibility for strong northern hemisphere high-latitude cooling under negative emissions

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Ocean dynamics and biological feedbacks limit the potential of macroalgae carbon dioxide removal

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The evaluation of the North Atlantic climate system in UKESM1 historical simulations for CMIP6

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Characterizing Mean and Extreme Diurnal Variability of Ocean CO 2 System Variables Across Marine Environments

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Testing the Skill of a Species Distribution Model Using a 21st Century Virtual Ecosystem

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The carbonate system and air-sea CO2 fluxes in coastal and open-ocean waters of the Macaronesia

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Strong Habitat Compression by Extreme Shoaling Events of Hypoxic Waters in the Eastern Pacific

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Global vulnerability of marine mammals to global warming.

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Committed and projected future changes in global peatlands – continued transient model simulations since the Last Glacial Maximum

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Climate Change-Induced Emergence of Novel Biogeochemical Provinces

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Climate-driven variability of the Southern Ocean CO2 sink

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Integrating environmental variability to broaden the research on coral responses to future ocean conditions

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Pathways to sustaining tuna-dependent Pacific Island economies during climate change

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Freshwater in the Arctic Ocean 2010–2019

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Rapid fCO2 rise in the northern Barents Sea and Nansen Basin

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Is deoxygenation detectable before warming in the thermocline?

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Operationalizing Ocean Health: Toward Integrated Research on Ocean Health and Recovery to Achieve Ocean Sustainability

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Exploring the Effects of Organic Matter Characteristics on Fe(II) Oxidation Kinetics in Coastal Seawater

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Impact of deoxygenation and warming on global marine species in the 21st century

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Seasonality of Dissolved Organic Carbon Exchange Across the Strait of Gibraltar

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Global climate-change trends detected in indicators of ocean ecology

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Energy budget diagnosis of changing climate feedback

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Seasonal Arctic sea ice forecasting with probabilistic deep learning

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The representation of alkalinity and the carbonate pump from CMIP5 to CMIP6 Earth system models and implications for the carbon cycle

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The sensitivity of pCO2 reconstructions to sampling scales across a Southern Ocean sub-domain: a semi-idealized ocean sampling simulation approach

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Consistency and Challenges in the Ocean Carbon Sink Estimate for the Global Carbon Budget

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Hysteresis of the Earth system under positive and negative CO 2 emissions

Auteurs: Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Thomas F Stocker, Fortunat Joos
Publié dans: Environmental Research Letters, Numéro 15/12, 2020, Page(s) 124026, ISSN 1748-9326
Éditeur: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abc4af

The quiet crossing of ocean tipping points

Auteurs: Christoph Heinze, Thorsten Blenckner, Helena Martins, Dagmara Rusiecka, Ralf Döscher, Marion Gehlen, Nicolas Gruber, Elisabeth Holland, Øystein Hov, Fortunat Joos, John Brian Robin Matthews, Rolf Rødven, Simon Wilson
Publié dans: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Numéro 118/9, 2021, Page(s) e2008478118, ISSN 0027-8424
Éditeur: National Academy of Sciences
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2008478118

Evaluation of Data‐Based Estimates of Anthropogenic Carbon in the Arctic Ocean

Auteurs: J. Terhaar, T. Tanhua, T. Stöven, J. C. Orr, L. Bopp
Publié dans: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Numéro 125/6, 2020, ISSN 2169-9275
Éditeur: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020JC016124

Interaction matters: Bottom-up driver interdependencies alter the projected response of phytoplankton communities to climate change

Auteurs: Seifert M., Nissen C., Rost B., Vogt M., Volker C., Hauck J.
Publié dans: Global Change Biology, Numéro 29(15), 2023, ISSN 1354-1013
Éditeur: Blackwell Publishing Inc.
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16799

Contrasting Upper and Deep Ocean Oxygen Response to Protracted Global Warming

Auteurs: T. L. Frölicher, M. T. Aschwanden, N. Gruber, S. L. Jaccard, J. P. Dunne, D. Paynter
Publié dans: Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Numéro 34/8, 2020, ISSN 0886-6236
Éditeur: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020gb006601

Tracking the Space-Time Evolution of Ocean Acidification Extremes in the California Current System and Northeast Pacific

Auteurs: Flora Desmet; Nicolas Gruber; Eike E. Köhn; Matthias Münnich; Meike Vogt
Publié dans: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Numéro 2, 2022, ISSN 2169-9275
Éditeur: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.3929/ethz-b-000549160

ARIOS: a database for ocean acidification assessment in the Iberian upwelling system (1976–2018)

Auteurs: Xosé Antonio Padin, Antón Velo, Fiz F. Pérez
Publié dans: Earth System Science Data, Numéro 12/4, 2020, Page(s) 2647-2663, ISSN 1866-3516
Éditeur: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/essd-12-2647-2020

Early detection of anthropogenic climate change signals in the ocean interior

Auteurs: Tjiputra J.F., Negrel J., Olsen A.
Publié dans: Scientific Reports, Numéro 13(1), 3006, 2023, ISSN 2045-2322
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-30159-0

They Came From the Pacific: How Changing Arctic Currents Could Contribute to an Ecological Regime Shift in the Atlantic Ocean

Auteurs: S. J. Kelly, E. Popova, Y. Aksenov, R. Marsh, A. Yool
Publié dans: Earth's Future, Numéro 8/4, 2020, ISSN 2328-4277
Éditeur: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2019ef001394

Arctic Ocean annual high in pCO2 could shift from winter to summer

Auteurs: James C. Orr, Lester Kwiatkowski & Hans-Otto Pörtner
Publié dans: Nature, Numéro 00280836, 2022, ISSN 0028-0836
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-022-05205-y

Climate intervention on a high-emissions pathway could delay but not prevent West Antarctic Ice Sheet demise

Auteurs: Sutter J., Jones A., Frolicher T.L., Wirths C., Stocker T.F.
Publié dans: Nature Climate Change, 2023, ISSN 1758-678X
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01738-w

Technical note: Interpreting pH changes

Auteurs: Andrea J. Fassbender, James C. Orr, Andrew G. Dickson
Publié dans: Biogeosciences, Numéro 18/4, 2021, Page(s) 1407-1415, ISSN 1726-4189
Éditeur: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/bg-18-1407-2021

Global Carbon Budget 2021

Auteurs: Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee, C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Rob B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Laurent Bopp, Thi Tuyet Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louis
Publié dans: Earth System Science Data, 2022, ISSN 1866-3516
Éditeur: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022

Rebuilding fish biomass for the world's marine ecoregions under climate change.

Auteurs: Cheung, William W L; Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano; Frölicher, Thomas L; Palomares, Maria Lourdes; Clarke, Tayler; Lam, Vicky W Y; Oyinlola, Muhammed A; Pauly, Daniel; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Sumaila, U Rashid; Teh, Lydia C L; Wabnitz, Colette C C
Publié dans: Global Change Biology, 2022, ISSN 1354-1013
Éditeur: Blackwell Publishing Inc.
DOI: 10.48350/172627

Policy Brief and Key Findings from the H2020 COMFORT project: Tipping Points and Regime Shifts in Regional Marine Ecosystems

Auteurs: Rusiecka, D., Blenckner, T., Heinze, C., Martins, H., Mongwe, P., Beatriz Arellano-Nava, B., Halloran, P., Oziel L., Powley, H
Publié dans: 2023
Éditeur: Unknown
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7939918

Climate change increases marine heatwaves harming marine ecosystems

Auteurs: Wernberg, Thomas; Smale, Dan A.; Frölicher, Thomas L.; Smith, Adam J. P.
Publié dans: ScienceBrief, 2021
Éditeur: ScienceBrief
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.5596820

Integrated Ocean Carbon Research: A Summary of Ocean Carbon Research, and Vision of Coordinated Ocean Carbon Research and Observations for the Next Decade

Auteurs: IOC Working Group on Integrated Ocean Carbon Research (IOC-R); Aricò, Salvatore; Arrieta, Jesús M.; Bakker, Dorothée C.E.; Boyd, Philip W.; Cotrim da Cunha, Leticia; Chai, Fei; Dai, Minhan; Gruber, Nicolas ; Isensee, Kirsten; Ishii, Masao; Jiao, Nianzhi; Lauvset, Siv K.; McKinley, Galen A.; Monteiro, Pedro; Robinson, Carol; Sabine, Christopher; Sanders, Richard; Schoo, Katherina L.; Schust
Publié dans: IOC Technical Series, Numéro IOC/2021/TS/158 Rev, 2021
Éditeur: UNESCO
DOI: 10.3929/ethz-b-000527959

The ICON Earth System Model Version 1.0

Auteurs: Johann H. Jungclaus; Stephan Lorenz; Hauke Schmidt; Oliver Gutjahr; Helmuth Haak; Carolin Mehlmann; Uwe Mikolajewicz; Dirk Notz; Dian Putrashan; Jin-Song von Storch; Linardakis Leonidas; Victor Brokvin; Fatemeh Chegini; Veronika Gayler; Marco Giorgetta; Stefan Hagemann; Tatiana Ilyina; Peter Korn; Jürgen Kröger; Wolfgang A. Müller; Holger Pohlmann; Thomas Raddatz; Lennart Ramme; Reick H. Christ
Publié dans: 2021
Éditeur: UNESCO
DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10507989.1

Safer Operations in Changing Ice-Covered Seas: Approaches and Perspectives

Auteurs: Yevgeny Aksenov, Stefanie Rynders, Danny L. Feltham, Lucia Hosekova, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, Laurent Bertino, Timothy D. Williams, Ekaterina Popova, Andrew Yool, A. J. George Nurser, Andrew Coward, Lucy Bricheno, Meric Srokosz & Harold Heorton
Publié dans: IUTAM Symposium on Physics and Mechanics of Sea Ice, 2022, ISBN 978-3-030-80439-8
Éditeur: Springer Link

Detection of Changepoints in Ocean Time Series

Auteurs: Severin Kaderli; Thomas L. Frölicher; Friedrich Burger
Publié dans: 2020
Éditeur: Univrsity of Bern
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.4564623

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