Our common future ocean in the Earth system – quantifying coupled cycles of carbon, oxygen, and nutrients for determining and achieving safe operating spaces with respect to tipping points | COMFORT | Project | Results | H2020 | CORDIS

Deliverables

The data management plan (DMP) will be conform with international standards as set by e.g. the Digital Curation Centre (DCC), address what data will be generated, what best practises will be followed and applied, how data will be curated, shared and accessed within the consortium, what measures are taking into account to protect Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) and when, how and where data will be long-term preserved and published.

Plan for Exploitation and Dissemination of results (PEDR), including communication plan

To achieve maximizing societal and policy impact as requested in the topic call COMFORT will facilitate for the best possible exploitation of project results by the different stakeholders see DoA section 22a

Report on constraining the CMIP6 model ensemble and appropriate model weighting schemes.

Report related to task 62

Report on reversibility and irreversibility of tipping points

Report related to task 24

Report on assessment of the new processes through simulations with new parameterisations

Report related to task 13

Report on dynamics of processes that can trigger tipping points from sensitivity studies

Report related to task 21

Summarized report from clustering events with other projects

The deliverable relates to Task 97 Thematic clustering and exchange with related H2020 projects

Report on derived impact metrics and multiple mitigation targets

Report related to task 5.1

Report on past and future vulnerabilities of selected fish stocks (Arctic stocks, tuna stocks, Indian-coast stocks) to tipping points

Report related to task 33

Report on identified processes behind tipping points, abrupt changes and hot-spots derived

Report related to task 12

Report on initial analysis of critical thresholds and rates of changes in selected physical-chemical stressors (pH, O2, NPP, temperature, salinity, saturation state for calcite & aragonite) based on current knowledge
Report on identified tipping points, abrupt changes and hot-spots from observations and models, including an assessment of their probability

Report related to task 11

Report on past and future tipping points in ecosystem components (low- to mid-trophic carbon flow and end-to-end tipping points up to highest trophic level)

Report related to task 32

Report on ecological and evolutionary dimensions of tipping points

Report related to task 43

List of communication contact points at all partner institutions

The list will enable smooth communications between partners and enable a smooth decision making progress (see also DoA section 3.2).

Report on proximity and early warning indicators of tipping points

Report related to task 23

Report on available observational data and selected model data

Report related to tasks 82 and 83

Report on future risks of tipping points and the related impacts

Report related to task 44

Report on potential, risks and side effects of mitigation measures

Report related to task 52

Report of the interaction with the SRG during the Special session at kick-off and annual project meetings

Report related to tasks 71 and 74

Report on the role of extreme conditions and variability for crossing thresholds

Report related to task 22

Report on past and future tipping points in habitats (surface ocean, mesopelagic, and deep habitats)

Report related to task 31

Report on feasibility of investigated mitigation methods and scenario choices to meet multiple climate targets; this will inform WP7

Report related to task 53

Report on robustness of ESM simulations and uncertainties with respect to thresholds defined by the impact metrics developed in WP6.

Report related to task 62

Policy event

Policy event related to task 74

Run selected mitigation scenarios in ESMs, synthesis report on ESM projections with and without mitigation pathways

Report related to task 63

First version of project's data portal

Related to tasks 8.1, 8.3, and 8.4. Web-portal.

Web-based SRG interaction-platform

Related to task 7.2.

Dissemination materials

Dissemination materials related to task 72 and task 71

Vulnerability maps for diverse habitats and ecosystems

Vulnerability maps related to task 4.2.

Additional high frequency ESM output

Related to task 6.1 (mainly for selected 2-D fields of model output).

Methods identified for tipping point intercomparison complient for implementation into ESMValTool

Report and/or code to be forwarded also to ESMValTool community. Related to task 1.1.

Publications

Hotspots and drivers of compound marine heatwaves and low net primary production extremes

Author(s): Le Grix N., Zscheischler J., Rodgers K.B., Yamaguchi R., Frolicher T.L.
Published in: Biogeosciences, Issue 19(24), 2023, ISSN 1726-4170
Publisher: European Geosciences Union (EGU).
DOI: 10.5194/bg-19-5807-2022

Ocean planning for species on the move provides substantial benefits and requires few trade-offs

Author(s): M. L. Pinsky, L. A. Rogers, J. W. Morley, T. L. Frölicher
Published in: Science Advances, Issue 6/50, 2020, Page(s) eabb8428, ISSN 2375-2548
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abb8428

Contrasting drivers and trends of ocean acidification in the subarctic Atlantic

Author(s): Fiz F. Pérez, Jon Olafsson, Solveig R. Ólafsdóttir, Marcos Fontela, Taro Takahashi
Published in: Scientific Reports, Issue 11/1, 2021, ISSN 2045-2322
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-93324-3

Impact of Remineralization Profile Shape on the Air‐Sea Carbon Balance

Author(s): Jonathan Maitland Lauderdale, B. B. Cael
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 48/7, 2021, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091746

Circulation timescales of Atlantic Water in the Arctic Ocean determined from anthropogenic radionuclides

Author(s): Anne-Marie Wefing, Núria Casacuberta, Marcus Christl, Nicolas Gruber, John N. Smith
Published in: Ocean Science, Issue 17/1, 2021, Page(s) 111-129, ISSN 1812-0792
Publisher: Göttingen: Copernicus Publ.
DOI: 10.5194/os-17-111-2021

Possible future scenarios for two major Arctic Gateways connecting Subarctic and Arctic marine systems: I. Climate and physical–chemical oceanography

Author(s): Drinkwater, Ken; Harada, Naomi; Nishino, Shigeto; Chierici, Melissa; Danielson, Seth L
Published in: ICES Journal od Marine Science, Issue 3, 2021, ISSN 1095-9289
Publisher: Oxford University Press
DOI: 10.1093/icesjms/fsab182

Biogeochemical extremes and compound events in the ocean

Author(s): Gruber, N., Boyd, P. W., Frölicher, T. L., & Vogt, M.
Published in: Nature, 2022, ISSN 0028-0836
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-03981-7

Compound high-temperature and low-chlorophyll extremes in the ocean over the satellite period

Author(s): Natacha Le Grix, Jakob Zscheischler, Charlotte Laufkötter, Cecile S. Rousseaux, Thomas L. Frölicher
Published in: Biogeosciences, Issue 18/6, 2021, Page(s) 2119-2137, ISSN 1726-4189
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/bg-18-2119-2021

Sharing the Burdens of Climate Mitigation and Adaptation: Incorporating Fairness Perspectives into Policy Optimization Models

Author(s): Żebrowski, P.; Dieckmann, U.; Brännström, Å.; Franklin, O.; Rovenskaya, E.
Published in: Sustainability, Issue 1, 2022, ISSN 2071-1050
Publisher: MDPI Open Access Publishing
DOI: 10.3390/su14073737

Improved Arctic Sea Ice Freeboard Retrieval From Satellite Altimetry Using Optimized Sea Surface Decorrelation Scales

Author(s): Jack C. Landy, Jerome Bouffard, Chris Wilson, Stefanie Rynders, Yevgeny Aksenov, Michel Tsamados
Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 2021, ISSN 2169-9275
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2021jc017466

Twenty-first century ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and upper-ocean nutrient and primary production decline from CMIP6 model projections

Author(s): Lester Kwiatkowski, Olivier Torres, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Aumont, Matthew Chamberlain, James R. Christian, John P. Dunne, Marion Gehlen, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G. John, Andrew Lenton, Hongmei Li, Nicole S. Lovenduski, James C. Orr, Julien Palmieri, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Charles A. Stock, Alessandro Tagliabue, Yohei Takano, Jerry Tjiputra, Katsuya Toyama, Hiroyu
Published in: Biogeosciences, Issue 17/13, 2020, Page(s) 3439-3470, ISSN 1726-4189
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020

Log-skew-normality of ocean turbulence

Author(s): B. B. Cael; Ali Mashayek
Published in: Physical Review Letters, 2021, ISSN 1079-7114
Publisher: American Physical Society
DOI: 10.1103/physrevlett.126.224502

Sparse observations induce large biases in estimates of the global ocean CO 2 sink: An ocean model subsampling experiment

Author(s): Hauck J., Nissen C., Landschutzer P., Rodenbeck C., Bushinsky S., Olsen A.
Published in: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Issue 381(2249), 20220063, 2023, ISSN 1364-503X
Publisher: Royal Society of London
DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2022.0063

Information content of absorption spectra and implications for ocean color inversion

Author(s): B. B. Cael, Alison Chase, Emmanuel Boss
Published in: Applied Optics, Issue 59/13, 2020, Page(s) 3971, ISSN 1559-128X
Publisher: OSA Publishing
DOI: 10.1364/AO.389189

Tracking Improvement in Simulated Marine Biogeochemistry Between CMIP5 and CMIP6

Author(s): Roland Séférian, Sarah Berthet, Andrew Yool, Julien Palmiéri, Laurent Bopp, Alessandro Tagliabue, Lester Kwiatkowski, Olivier Aumont, James Christian, John Dunne, Marion Gehlen, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G. John, Hongmei Li, Matthew C. Long, Jessica Y. Luo, Hideyuki Nakano, Anastasia Romanou, Jörg Schwinger, Charles Stock, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Yohei Takano, Jerry Tjiputra, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Mic
Published in: Current Climate Change Reports, Issue 6/3, 2020, Page(s) 95-119, ISSN 2198-6061
Publisher: Springer Nature Switzerland AG
DOI: 10.1007/s40641-020-00160-0

Clarifying the Relation between AMOC and Thermal Wind: Application to the Centennial Variability in a Coupled Climate Model

Author(s): Robin Waldman, Joël Hirschi, Aurore Voldoire, Christophe Cassou, Rym Msadek
Published in: Journal of Physical Oceanography, Issue 51/2, 2021, Page(s) 343-364, ISSN 0022-3670
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jpo-d-19-0284.1

Restructuring of plankton genomic biogeography in the surface ocean under climate change

Author(s): Paul Frémont, Marion Gehlen, Mathieu Vrac, Jade Leconte, Tom O. Delmont, Patrick Wincker, Daniele Iudicone & Olivier Jaillon
Published in: Nature Climate Change, 2022, ISSN 1758-678X
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01314-8

Constraining Global Marine Iron Sources and Ligand‐Mediated Scavenging Fluxes With GEOTRACES Dissolved Iron Measurements in an Ocean Biogeochemical Model

Author(s): Christopher J. Somes, Andrew W. Dale, Klaus Wallmann, Florian Scholz, Wanxuan Yao, Andreas Oschlies, Juan Muglia, Andreas Schmittner, Eric P. Achterberg
Published in: Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Issue 35/8, 2021, ISSN 0886-6236
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2021gb006948

Ocean Biogeochemical Signatures of the North Pacific Blob

Author(s): Samuel C. Mogen, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Allysa R. Dallmann, Luke Gregor, Adrienne J. Sutton, Steven J. Bograd, Nathali Cordero Quiros, Emanuele Di Lorenzo, Elliott L. Hazen, Michael G. Jacox, Mercedes Pozo Buil, Stephen Yeager
Published in: Geophysical research Letters, 2022, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2021gl096938

How many independent quantities can be extracted from ocean color?

Author(s): Cael B.B., Bisson K., Boss E., Erickson Z.K.
Published in: Limnology And Oceanography Letters, Issue 8(4), 2023, ISSN 2378-2242
Publisher: John Wiley and Sons Inc
DOI: 10.1002/lol2.10319

The Sensitivity of the Marine Carbonate System to Regional Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement

Author(s): Daniel J. Burt; Friederike Fröb; Tatiana Ilyina
Published in: Frontiers in Climate, 2021, ISSN 2624-9553
Publisher: Frontiers
DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2021.624075

What Controls the Large-Scale Efficiency of Carbon Transfer Through the Ocean's Mesopelagic Zone? Insights From a New, Mechanistic Model (MSPACMAM)

Author(s): Dinauer A., Laufkotter C., Doney S.C., Joos F.
Published in: Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Issue 36(10), e2021GB007131, 2022, ISSN 0886-6236
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2021gb007131

Current and projected patterns of warming and marine heatwaves in the Southern Indian Ocean

Author(s): Azarian C., Bopp L., Pietri A., Sallee J.-B., d'Ovidio F.
Published in: Progress in Oceanography, Issue 215, 103036, 2023, ISSN 0079-6611
Publisher: Pergamon Press Ltd.
DOI: 10.1016/j.pocean.2023.103036

Timing and magnitude of climate-driven range shifts in transboundary fish stocks challenge their management

Author(s): Juliano Palacios-Abrantes, Thomas L. Frölicher, Gabriel Reygondeau, U. Rashid Sumaila, Alessandro Tagliabue, Colette C. C. Wabnitz, William W. L. Cheung
Published in: Global Change Biology, 2022, ISSN 1354-1013
Publisher: Blackwell Publishing Inc.
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16058

The rise of novelty in marine ecosystems: The Baltic Sea case

Author(s): Yosr Ammar, Susa Niiranen, Saskia A. Otto, Christian Möllmann, Walter Finsinger, Thorsten Blenckner
Published in: Global Change Biology, 2021, ISSN 1354-1013
Publisher: Blackwell Publishing Inc.
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15503

Marine heatwaves exacerbate climate change impacts for fisheries in the northeast Pacific

Author(s): William W. L. Cheung, Thomas L. Frölicher
Published in: Scientific Reports, Issue 10/1, 2020, ISSN 2045-2322
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-63650-z

State-dependence of Cenozoic thermal extremes

Author(s): Cael B.B., Goodwin P.
Published in: Communications Earth and Environment, Issue 4(1), 88, 2023, ISSN 2662-4435
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-023-00753-1

Marine Ecosystem Changepoints Spread Under Ocean Warming in an Earth System Model

Author(s): B. B. Cael, Charlotte Begouen Demeaux, Stephanie Henson, Charles A. Stock, Fernando González Taboada, Jasmin G. John, Andrew D. Barton
Published in: Journal of Geophyscial Research: Biogeosciences, 2022, ISSN 2169-8961
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2021jg006571

Automated Plankton Classification With a Dynamic Optimization and Adaptation Cycle.

Author(s): Conradt J., Borner G., Lopez-Urrutia A., Mollmann C., Moyano M.
Published in: Frontiers in Marine Science, Issue 9, 2022, ISSN 2296-7745
Publisher: Frontiers Media S.A.
DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2022.868420

North Atlantic Western Boundary Currents Are Intense Dissolved Organic Carbon Streams

Author(s): Marcos Fontela, Fiz F. Pérez, Herlé Mercier, Pascale Lherminier
Published in: Frontiers in Marine Science, Issue 7, 2020, ISSN 2296-7745
Publisher: Frontiers
DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2020.593757

Reconciling the Size‐Dependence of Marine Particle Sinking Speed

Author(s): B. B. Cael, Emma L. Cavan, Gregory L. Britten
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 48/5, 2021, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091771

Feedbacks Between Ocean Productivity and Organic Iron Complexation in Reaction to Changes in Ocean Iron Supply

Author(s): Völker, Christoph; Ye, Ying
Published in: Frontiers in Marine Science, 2022, ISSN 2296-7745
Publisher: Frontiers
DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2022.777334

OceanSODA-ETHZ: a global gridded data set of the surface ocean carbonate system for seasonal to decadal studies of ocean acidification

Author(s): Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber
Published in: Earth System Science Data, Issue 13/2, 2021, Page(s) 777-808, ISSN 1866-3516
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/essd-13-777-2021

The Risk for Novel and Disappearing Environmental Conditions in the Baltic Sea

Author(s): Thorsten Blenckner, Yosr Ammar, Bärbel Müller-Karulis, Susa Niiranen, Lars Arneborg, Qiang Li
Published in: Frontiers in Marine Science, Issue 8, 2021, ISSN 2296-7745
Publisher: Frontiers
DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2021.745722

Future phytoplankton diversity in a changing climate

Author(s): Stephanie A. Henson, B. B. Cael, Stephanie R. Allen, Stephanie Dutkiewicz
Published in: Nature Communications, Issue 12/1, 2021, ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-25699-w

The Northeast Atlantic is running out of excess carbonate in the horizon of cold-water corals communities

Author(s): Marcos Fontela, Fiz F. Pérez, Lidia I. Carracedo, Xosé A. Padín, Antón Velo, Maribel I. García-Ibañez, Pascale Lherminier
Published in: Scientific Reports, Issue 10/1, 2020, ISSN 2045-2322
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-71793-2

Significant variability of structure and predictability of Arctic Ocean surface pathways affects basin-wide connectivity

Author(s): Chris Wilson, Yevgeny Aksenov, Stefanie Rynders, Stephen J. Kelly, Thomas Krumpen, Andrew C. Coward
Published in: Communications Earth & Environment, Issue 2/1, 2021, ISSN 2662-4435
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-021-00237-0

A committed fourfold increase in ocean oxygen loss

Author(s): Andreas Oschlies
Published in: Nature Communications, Issue 12/1, 2021, ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22584-4

Projecting coral responses to intensifying marine heatwaves under ocean acidification

Author(s): Shannon G. Klein, Nathan R. Geraldi, Andrea Anton, Sebastian Schmidt-Roach, Maren Ziegler, Maha J. Cziesielski, Cecilia Martin, Nils Rädecker, Thomas L. Frölicher, Peter J. Mumby, John M. Pandolfi, David J. Suggett, Christian R. Voolstra, Manuel Aranda, Carlos. M. Duarte
Published in: Global change Biology, 2021, ISSN 1354-1013
Publisher: Blackwell Publishing Inc.
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15818

Climate change, tropical fisheries and prospects for sustainable development

Author(s): Vicky W. Y. Lam, Edward H. Allison, Johann D. Bell, Jessica Blythe, William W. L. Cheung, Thomas L. Frölicher, Maria A. Gasalla, U. Rashid Sumaila
Published in: Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Issue 1/9, 2020, Page(s) 440-454, ISSN 2662-138X
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s43017-020-0071-9

Open Ocean Particle Flux Variability From Surface to Seafloor

Author(s): B. B. Cael, Kelsey Bisson, Maureen Conte, Manon T. Duret, Christopher L. Follett, Stephanie A. Henson, Makio C. Honda, Morten H. Iversen, David M. Karl, Richard S. Lampitt, Colleen B. Mouw, Frank Muller-Karger, Corinne A. Pebody, Kenneth L. Smith Jr., David Talmy
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, 2021, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2021gl092895

Global Carbon Budget 2022

Author(s): Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Luke Gregor, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Ramdane Alkama, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bel
Published in: Earth System Science Data, Issue 14(11), 2022, ISSN 1866-3508
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022

Carbon Cycle Responses to Changes in Weathering and the Long-Term Fate of Stable Carbon Isotopes

Author(s): Jeltsch-Thommes A., Joos F.
Published in: Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, Issue 38(2), e2022PA004577, 2023, ISSN 2572-4525
Publisher: John Wiley and Sons Inc
DOI: 10.1029/2022pa004577

An evolutionary explanation of female-biased sexual size dimorphism in North Sea plaice, Pleuronectes platessa L.

Author(s): Mollet F.M., Enberg K., Boukal D.S., Rijnsdorp A.D., Dieckmann U.
Published in: Ecology and Evolution, Issue 13(1), e8070, 2023, ISSN 2045-7758
Publisher: John Wiley and Sons Ltd
DOI: 10.1002/ece3.8070

Cold-water corals in the Subpolar North Atlantic Ocean exposed to aragonite undersaturation if the 2 °C global warming target is not met

Author(s): Maribel I. García-Ibáñez, Nicholas R. Bates, Dorothee C.E. Bakker, Marcos Fontela, Antón Velo
Published in: Global and Planetary Change, Issue 201, 2021, Page(s) 103480, ISSN 0921-8181
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2021.103480

The climate sensitivity of northern Greenland fjords is amplified through sea-ice damming

Author(s): Christian Stranne, Johan Nilsson, Adam Ulfsbo, Matt O’Regan, Helen K. Coxall, Lorenz Meire, Julia Muchowski, Larry A. Mayer, Volker Brüchert, Jonas Fredriksson, Brett Thornton, Julek Chawarski, Gabriel West, Elizabeth Weidner, Martin Jakobsson
Published in: Communications Earth & Environment, Issue 2/1, 2021, ISSN 2662-4435
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-021-00140-8

Simulated stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during the Last Glacial Maximum

Author(s): Frerk Pöppelmeier, Jeemijn Scheen, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Thomas F. Stocker
Published in: Climate of the Past, Issue 17/2, 2021, Page(s) 615-632, ISSN 1814-9332
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/cp-17-615-2021

Hotter and Weaker Mediterranean Outflow as a Response to Basin-Wide Alterations

Author(s): Jesús García-Lafuente, Simone Sammartino, I. Emma Huertas, Susana Flecha, Ricardo F. Sánchez-Leal, Cristina Naranjo, Irene Nadal, María Jesús Bellanco
Published in: Frontiers in Marine Science, Issue 8, 2021, ISSN 2296-7745
Publisher: Frontiers
DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2021.613444

Destabilisation of the Subpolar North Atlantic prior to the Little Ice Age

Author(s): Beatriz Arellano-Nava, Paul R. Halloran, Chris A. Boulton, James Scourse, Paul G. Butler, David J. Reynolds & Timothy M. Lenton
Published in: Nature Communications, 2022, ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-32653-x

Compound marine heatwaves and ocean acidity extremes

Author(s): Friedrich A. Burger, Jens Terhaar & Thomas L. Frölicher
Published in: Nature Communications, 2022, ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-32120-7

Cascading effects augment the direct impact of CO2 on phytoplankton growth in a biogeochemical model

Author(s): Miriam Seifert, Cara Nissen, Björn Rost, Judith Hauck
Published in: Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, Issue 23251026, 2022, ISSN 2325-1026
Publisher: Elementa
DOI: 10.1525/elementa.2021.00104

Linking observed changes in pelagic catches to temperature and oxygen in the Eastern Tropical Pacific

Author(s): Clarke T.M., Wabnitz C.C.C., Frolicher T.L., Reygondeau G., Pauly D., Cheung W.W.L
Published in: Fish and Fisheries, Issue 23(6), 2023, ISSN 1467-2979
Publisher: John Wiley and Sons Inc
DOI: 10.1111/faf.12694

Riverine nitrogen supply to the global ocean and its limited impact on global marine primary production: a feedback study using an Earth system model

Author(s): Miriam Tivig, David P. Keller, Andreas Oschlies
Published in: Biogeosciences, Issue 18/19, 2021, Page(s) 5327-5350, ISSN 1726-4189
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/bg-18-5327-2021

Persistent Uncertainties in Ocean Net Primary Production Climate Change Projections at Regional Scales Raise Challenges for Assessing Impacts on Ecosystem Services

Author(s): Alessandro Tagliabue; Lester Kwiatkowski; Laurent Bopp; Momme Butenschön; William W. L. Cheung; Matthieu Lengaigne; Jérôme Vialard
Published in: Frontiers in Climate, 2021, ISSN 2624-9553
Publisher: Frontiers
DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2021.738224

Drivers of surface ocean acidity extremes in an Earth system model

Author(s): Friedrich A. Burger, Thomas L. Frölicher
Published in: Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 2023, ISSN 1944-9224
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2023gb007785

Decadal acidification in Atlantic and Mediterranean water masses exchanging at the Strait of Gibraltar

Author(s): Susana Flecha, Fiz F. Pérez, Akihiko Murata, Ahmed Makaoui, I. Emma Huertas
Published in: Scientific Reports, Issue 9/1, 2019, ISSN 2045-2322
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-52084-x

Marine high temperature extremes amplify the impacts of climate change on fish and fisheries

Author(s): William W. L. Cheung, Thomas L. Frölicher, Vicky W. Y. Lam, Muhammed A. Oyinlola, Gabriel Reygondeau, U. Rashid Sumaila, Travis C. Tai, Lydia C. L. Teh, Colette C. C. Wabnitz
Published in: Science Advances, Issue 7/40, 2021, ISSN 2375-2548
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abh0895

A unified theory for organic matter accumulation

Author(s): Emily J. Zakem, B. B. Cael, Naomi M. Levine
Published in: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Issue 118/6, 2021, Page(s) e2016896118, ISSN 0027-8424
Publisher: National Academy of Sciences
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2016896118

Can we project changes in fish abundance and distribution in response to climate?

Author(s): Jose A. Fernandes, Louise Rutterford, Stephen D. Simpson, Momme Butenschön, Thomas L. Frölicher, Andrew Yool, William W. L. Cheung, Alastair Grant
Published in: Global Change Biology, Issue 26/7, 2020, Page(s) 3891-3905, ISSN 1354-1013
Publisher: Blackwell Publishing Inc.
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15081

Underestimation of oceanic carbon uptake in the Arctic Ocean: ice melt as predictor of the sea ice carbon pump

Author(s): Richaud, B., Fennel, K., Oliver, E. C. J., DeGrandpre, M. D., Bourgeois, T., Hu, X., and Lu, Y.
Published in: The Cryosphere, Issue 17(7), 2665-2680, 2023, ISSN 1994-0416
Publisher: Copernicus Group
DOI: 10.5194/tc-17-2665-2023

Reemergence of Anthropogenic Carbon Into the Ocean's Mixed Layer Strongly Amplifies Transient Climate Sensitivity

Author(s): K. B. Rodgers, S. Schlunegger, R. D. Slater, M. Ishii, T. L. Frölicher, K. Toyama, Y. Plancherel, O. Aumont, A. J. Fassbender
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 47/18, 2020, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl089275

Ocean acidification in emission-driven temperature stabilization scenarios: the role of TCRE and non-CO2 greenhouse gases

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Published in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 18(2), 024033, 2023, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
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A strong mitigation scenario maintains climate neutrality of northern peatlands

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Quantitative modelling of the spatial dynamics of South Pacific and Atlantic albacore tuna populations

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Time of Emergence and Large Ensemble Intercomparison for Ocean Biogeochemical Trends

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Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
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Including filter-feeding gelatinous macrozooplankton in a global marine biogeochemical model: model-data comparison and impact on the ocean carbon cycle

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Source apportionment of methane escaping the subsea permafrost system in the outer Eurasian Arctic Shelf

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Diazotrophy as a key driver of the response of marine net primary productivity to climate change

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Local Drivers of Marine Heatwaves: A Global Analysis With an Earth System Model

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Magnitude and uncertainty of nitrous oxide emissions from North America based on bottom-up and top-down approaches: Informing future research and national inventories

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Iron and copper complexation in Macaronesian coastal waters

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Trends and variability in the ocean carbon sink

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Advancing real-time pH sensing capabilities to monitor coastal acidification as measured in a productive and dynamic estuary (Ría de Arousa, NW Spain)

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Abruptly attenuated carbon sequestration with Weddell Sea dense waters by 2100

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Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
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Emit now, mitigate later? Earth system reversibility under overshoots of different magnitudes and durations

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Observation-constrained estimates of the global ocean carbon sink from Earth system models

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Anthropogenic CO2 and ocean acidification in Argentine Basin Water Masses over almost five decades of observations

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Stratification constrains future heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean between 30°S and 55°S

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Trivial improvements of predictive skill due to direct reconstruction of global carbon cycle. In open review for Earth System Dynamics

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Publisher: Copernicus Publications
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Ocean Heat Uptake Efficiency Increase Since 1970

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Publisher: American Geophysical Union
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Climate change impacts the vertical structure of marine ecosystem thermal ranges

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Published in: Nature Climate Change, Issue 1758678X, 2022, ISSN 1758-678X
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
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Climate warming is predicted to enhance the negative effects of harvesting on high‐latitude lake fish

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Counteracting Contributions of the Upper and Lower Meridional Overturning Limbs to the North Atlantic Nutrient Budgets: Enhanced Imbalance in 2010

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Published in: Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Issue 35/6, 2021, ISSN 0886-6236
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
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Contrasting projections of the ENSO-driven CO2 flux variability in the equatorial Pacific under high-warming scenario

Author(s): Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar, Laurent Bopp, Jim R. Christian, Tatiana Ilyina, John P. Krasting, Roland Séférian, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Michio Watanabe, Andrew Yool, and Jerry Tjiputra
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Publisher: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH
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Radiocarbon in the Land and Ocean Components of the Community Earth System Model

Author(s): Tobias Frischknecht, Altug Ekici, Fortunat Joos
Published in: Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 2021, ISSN 0886-6236
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
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Ocean Acidification Effect on the Iron-Gallic Acid Redox Interaction in Seawater

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Published in: Frontiers in Marine Science, 2022, ISSN 2296-7745
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The Pan-Arctic Continental Slope as an Intensifying Conveyer Belt for Nutrients in the Central Arctic Ocean (1985–2015)

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Published in: Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 2022, ISSN 0886-6236
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
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Arctic Ocean acidification over the 21st century co-driven by anthropogenic carbon increases and freshening in the CMIP6 model ensemble

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Failures to disagree are essential for environmental science to effectively influence policy development

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High trophic level feedbacks on global ocean carbon uptake and marine ecosystem dynamics under climate change

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Possibility for strong northern hemisphere high-latitude cooling under negative emissions

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Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
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Ocean dynamics and biological feedbacks limit the potential of macroalgae carbon dioxide removal

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The evaluation of the North Atlantic climate system in UKESM1 historical simulations for CMIP6

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Publisher: American Geophysical Union
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Characterizing Mean and Extreme Diurnal Variability of Ocean CO 2 System Variables Across Marine Environments

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Publisher: American Geophysical Union
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Testing the Skill of a Species Distribution Model Using a 21st Century Virtual Ecosystem

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Publisher: American Geophysical Union
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The carbonate system and air-sea CO2 fluxes in coastal and open-ocean waters of the Macaronesia

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Published in: Frontiers in Marine Science, 2023, ISSN 2296-7745
Publisher: Frontiers Media S.A.
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Strong Habitat Compression by Extreme Shoaling Events of Hypoxic Waters in the Eastern Pacific

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Publisher: American Geophysical Union
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Global vulnerability of marine mammals to global warming.

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Published in: Scientific Reports, 10 (1), Issue 2, 2020, ISSN 2045-2322
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
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Committed and projected future changes in global peatlands – continued transient model simulations since the Last Glacial Maximum

Author(s): Jurek Müller and Fortunat Joos
Published in: Biogeosciences, 2021, ISSN 1726-4189
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
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Climate Change-Induced Emergence of Novel Biogeochemical Provinces

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Publisher: Frontiers
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Climate-driven variability of the Southern Ocean CO2 sink

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Integrating environmental variability to broaden the research on coral responses to future ocean conditions

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Published in: Global Change Biology, 2021, ISSN 1354-1013
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Pathways to sustaining tuna-dependent Pacific Island economies during climate change

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Published in: Nature Sustainability, 2021, ISSN 2398-9629
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
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Freshwater in the Arctic Ocean 2010–2019

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Rapid fCO2 rise in the northern Barents Sea and Nansen Basin

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Is deoxygenation detectable before warming in the thermocline?

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Publisher: Copernicus Publications
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Operationalizing Ocean Health: Toward Integrated Research on Ocean Health and Recovery to Achieve Ocean Sustainability

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Exploring the Effects of Organic Matter Characteristics on Fe(II) Oxidation Kinetics in Coastal Seawater

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Publisher: American Chemical Society
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Impact of deoxygenation and warming on global marine species in the 21st century

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Publisher: European Geosciences Union (EGU).
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Seasonality of Dissolved Organic Carbon Exchange Across the Strait of Gibraltar

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Publisher: American Geophysical Union
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Global climate-change trends detected in indicators of ocean ecology

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Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
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Energy budget diagnosis of changing climate feedback

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Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science
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Seasonal Arctic sea ice forecasting with probabilistic deep learning

Author(s): Tom R. Andersson, J. Scott Hosking, María Pérez-Ortiz, Brooks Paige, Andrew Elliott, Chris Russell, Stephen Law, Daniel C. Jones, Jeremy Wilkinson, Tony Phillips, James Byrne, Steffen Tietsche, Beena Balan Sarojini, Eduardo Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Yevgeny Aksenov, Rod Downie & Emily Shuckburgh
Published in: Nature Communications, 2021, ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
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The representation of alkalinity and the carbonate pump from CMIP5 to CMIP6 Earth system models and implications for the carbon cycle

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Publisher: European Geosciences Union (EGU).
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Increase in ocean acidity variability and extremes under increasing atmospheric CO2

Author(s): Friedrich A. Burger, Jasmin G. John, Thomas L. Frölicher
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Publisher: Copernicus Publications
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The sensitivity of pCO2 reconstructions to sampling scales across a Southern Ocean sub-domain: a semi-idealized ocean sampling simulation approach

Author(s): Laique M. Djeutchouang; Nicolette Chang; Luke Gregor; Marcello Vichi; Pedro M. S. Monteiro
Published in: Biogeosciences, 19 (17), 2022, ISSN 1726-4189
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Consistency and Challenges in the Ocean Carbon Sink Estimate for the Global Carbon Budget

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Hysteresis of the Earth system under positive and negative CO 2 emissions

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The quiet crossing of ocean tipping points

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Evaluation of Data‐Based Estimates of Anthropogenic Carbon in the Arctic Ocean

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Interaction matters: Bottom-up driver interdependencies alter the projected response of phytoplankton communities to climate change

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Contrasting Upper and Deep Ocean Oxygen Response to Protracted Global Warming

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Publisher: American Geophysical Union
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Tracking the Space-Time Evolution of Ocean Acidification Extremes in the California Current System and Northeast Pacific

Author(s): Flora Desmet; Nicolas Gruber; Eike E. Köhn; Matthias Münnich; Meike Vogt
Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Issue 2, 2022, ISSN 2169-9275
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
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ARIOS: a database for ocean acidification assessment in the Iberian upwelling system (1976–2018)

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Published in: Earth System Science Data, Issue 12/4, 2020, Page(s) 2647-2663, ISSN 1866-3516
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
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Early detection of anthropogenic climate change signals in the ocean interior

Author(s): Tjiputra J.F., Negrel J., Olsen A.
Published in: Scientific Reports, Issue 13(1), 3006, 2023, ISSN 2045-2322
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-30159-0

They Came From the Pacific: How Changing Arctic Currents Could Contribute to an Ecological Regime Shift in the Atlantic Ocean

Author(s): S. J. Kelly, E. Popova, Y. Aksenov, R. Marsh, A. Yool
Published in: Earth's Future, Issue 8/4, 2020, ISSN 2328-4277
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2019ef001394

Arctic Ocean annual high in pCO2 could shift from winter to summer

Author(s): James C. Orr, Lester Kwiatkowski & Hans-Otto Pörtner
Published in: Nature, Issue 00280836, 2022, ISSN 0028-0836
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-022-05205-y

Climate intervention on a high-emissions pathway could delay but not prevent West Antarctic Ice Sheet demise

Author(s): Sutter J., Jones A., Frolicher T.L., Wirths C., Stocker T.F.
Published in: Nature Climate Change, 2023, ISSN 1758-678X
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01738-w

Technical note: Interpreting pH changes

Author(s): Andrea J. Fassbender, James C. Orr, Andrew G. Dickson
Published in: Biogeosciences, Issue 18/4, 2021, Page(s) 1407-1415, ISSN 1726-4189
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/bg-18-1407-2021

Global Carbon Budget 2021

Author(s): Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee, C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Rob B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Laurent Bopp, Thi Tuyet Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louis
Published in: Earth System Science Data, 2022, ISSN 1866-3516
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022

Rebuilding fish biomass for the world's marine ecoregions under climate change.

Author(s): Cheung, William W L; Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano; Frölicher, Thomas L; Palomares, Maria Lourdes; Clarke, Tayler; Lam, Vicky W Y; Oyinlola, Muhammed A; Pauly, Daniel; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Sumaila, U Rashid; Teh, Lydia C L; Wabnitz, Colette C C
Published in: Global Change Biology, 2022, ISSN 1354-1013
Publisher: Blackwell Publishing Inc.
DOI: 10.48350/172627

Policy Brief and Key Findings from the H2020 COMFORT project: Tipping Points and Regime Shifts in Regional Marine Ecosystems

Author(s): Rusiecka, D., Blenckner, T., Heinze, C., Martins, H., Mongwe, P., Beatriz Arellano-Nava, B., Halloran, P., Oziel L., Powley, H
Published in: 2023
Publisher: Unknown
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7939918

Climate change increases marine heatwaves harming marine ecosystems

Author(s): Wernberg, Thomas; Smale, Dan A.; Frölicher, Thomas L.; Smith, Adam J. P.
Published in: ScienceBrief, 2021
Publisher: ScienceBrief
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.5596820

Integrated Ocean Carbon Research: A Summary of Ocean Carbon Research, and Vision of Coordinated Ocean Carbon Research and Observations for the Next Decade

Author(s): IOC Working Group on Integrated Ocean Carbon Research (IOC-R); Aricò, Salvatore; Arrieta, Jesús M.; Bakker, Dorothée C.E.; Boyd, Philip W.; Cotrim da Cunha, Leticia; Chai, Fei; Dai, Minhan; Gruber, Nicolas ; Isensee, Kirsten; Ishii, Masao; Jiao, Nianzhi; Lauvset, Siv K.; McKinley, Galen A.; Monteiro, Pedro; Robinson, Carol; Sabine, Christopher; Sanders, Richard; Schoo, Katherina L.; Schust
Published in: IOC Technical Series, Issue IOC/2021/TS/158 Rev, 2021
Publisher: UNESCO
DOI: 10.3929/ethz-b-000527959

The ICON Earth System Model Version 1.0

Author(s): Johann H. Jungclaus; Stephan Lorenz; Hauke Schmidt; Oliver Gutjahr; Helmuth Haak; Carolin Mehlmann; Uwe Mikolajewicz; Dirk Notz; Dian Putrashan; Jin-Song von Storch; Linardakis Leonidas; Victor Brokvin; Fatemeh Chegini; Veronika Gayler; Marco Giorgetta; Stefan Hagemann; Tatiana Ilyina; Peter Korn; Jürgen Kröger; Wolfgang A. Müller; Holger Pohlmann; Thomas Raddatz; Lennart Ramme; Reick H. Christ
Published in: 2021
Publisher: UNESCO
DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10507989.1

Safer Operations in Changing Ice-Covered Seas: Approaches and Perspectives

Author(s): Yevgeny Aksenov, Stefanie Rynders, Danny L. Feltham, Lucia Hosekova, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, Laurent Bertino, Timothy D. Williams, Ekaterina Popova, Andrew Yool, A. J. George Nurser, Andrew Coward, Lucy Bricheno, Meric Srokosz & Harold Heorton
Published in: IUTAM Symposium on Physics and Mechanics of Sea Ice, 2022, ISBN 978-3-030-80439-8
Publisher: Springer Link

Detection of Changepoints in Ocean Time Series

Author(s): Severin Kaderli; Thomas L. Frölicher; Friedrich Burger
Published in: 2020
Publisher: Univrsity of Bern
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.4564623

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Our common future ocean in the Earth system – quantifying coupled cycles of carbon, oxygen, and nutrients for determining and achieving safe operating spaces with respect to tipping points

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