Periodic Reporting for period 3 - COMFORT (Our common future ocean in the Earth system – quantifying coupled cycles of carbon, oxygen, and nutrients for determining and achieving safe operating spaces with respect to tipping points)
Reporting period: 2022-09-01 to 2023-08-31
Human-caused greenhouse gas emissions result in frequent and extensive abrupt changes in the ocean, including enhanced stratification, circulation changes, acidification, oxygen loss, and the potential for irreversible tipping points, emphasizing the need for immediate emissions reductions to mitigate these damaging effects.
Accordingly, COMFORT aimed to close knowledge gaps for key ocean tipping elements within the Earth system under anthropogenic physical and chemical climate forcing through a coherent interdisciplinary research approach. The project aims to provide added value to decision and policy makers in terms of safe marine operating spaces, climate mitigation targets, and feasible mitigation pathways. It focuses on the triple threat of (1) warming, (2) deoxygenation, and (3) ocean acidification, and how to optimally deal with it.
The following specific objectives are addressed (CT=Core Theme, WP= Work Package; Figure):
1. Identify climate-induced ocean tipping points and attribute them to processes (CT1, WPs 1-2).
2. Quantify related impacts and establish multi-dimensional Safe Operating Spaces (SOS) (CT2, WPs 3-4).
3. Provide respective mitigation targets and options, as well as projected mitigation pathways (CT3, WPs 5-6).
4. Integrate stakeholder knowledge and provide new results including data to users (CT4, WPs 7-10).
COMFORT has been conducted over a span of four years (2019-2023) and has reached its completion. The project has successfully achieved its primary objectives, delivered all required outcomes and met all milestones.
Accordingly, COMFORT aimed to close knowledge gaps for key ocean tipping elements within the Earth system under anthropogenic physical and chemical climate forcing through a coherent interdisciplinary research approach. The project aims to provide added value to decision and policy makers in terms of safe marine operating spaces, climate mitigation targets, and feasible mitigation pathways. It focuses on the triple threat of (1) warming, (2) deoxygenation, and (3) ocean acidification, and how to optimally deal with it.
The following specific objectives are addressed (CT=Core Theme, WP= Work Package; Figure):
1. Identify climate-induced ocean tipping points and attribute them to processes (CT1, WPs 1-2).
2. Quantify related impacts and establish multi-dimensional Safe Operating Spaces (SOS) (CT2, WPs 3-4).
3. Provide respective mitigation targets and options, as well as projected mitigation pathways (CT3, WPs 5-6).
4. Integrate stakeholder knowledge and provide new results including data to users (CT4, WPs 7-10).
COMFORT has been conducted over a span of four years (2019-2023) and has reached its completion. The project has successfully achieved its primary objectives, delivered all required outcomes and met all milestones.
One of the primary outcomes of the COMFORT research revealed the existence of emerging climate feedback due to ocean warming. These studies also identified numerous previously unconsidered processes that interactively contribute to the occurrence of critical change points which are projected to occur in the near future and can be irreversible towards the end of the century. According to this outcome, the assessment of reversibility for abrupt changes and regime shifts in the ocean indicates that only a substantial and immediate reduction in greenhouse gas emissions would have a partial capacity to induce reversibility. This reduction would primarily impact the weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the decline of Arctic Sea ice. However, even after greenhouse gas emissions come to a halt, the triple threat posed by the ocean is expected to persist over the course of centuries. Over hundreds of high impact peer review articles have been published by COMFORT to disseminate these results to the academic sphere.
Through comprehensive analyses, COMFORT has identified and characterized the impacts, risks, and thresholds of ocean tipping points that affect marine ecosystems at various trophic levels. This encompasses evaluating both historical and projected tipping points that directly influence the biotic and abiotic drivers of ecosystems, as well as the vulnerability of fish stocks and coral reefs to abrupt changes. From this identified alarming change in the ocean, COMFORT proposed adoption of the Safe Operating Space (SOS) concept, part of the planetary boundary framework, analyze climate-induced abrupt changes affecting marine species and ecosystems which help to advise policy about future mitigation pathways.
Besides outstanding scientific peer reviewed article published on this subject, policy events, workshops, stakeholder engagement events, contribution to the IPCC and to the upcoming COP28 have been promoted and organize to communicate the imminent alert on ocean tipping point. Moreover, COMFORT was among the most productive EU projects (CINEA funded) concerning material cited in the 6th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Working Groups I and II).
COMFORT also provided a set of mitigation strategies to address climate-induced tipping points and evaluate the potential risks associated with selected mitigation measures. Furthermore, they aimed to precisely identify ocean tipping points related to surpassing the temperature target (1.5°C) specified in the Paris Agreement. This was achieved by conducting idealized simulations that incorporated the implementation of large-scale carbon dioxide removal techniques. This includes pilot studies of carbon dioxide removal implementation but have warned about risks and uncertainties generated.
Dissemination of results has been strategically operated in using a new framework to facilitate and communicate project results in a language and format appropriate to Stakeholder Reference Group (SRG) and other target audiences. A web-based SRG interaction-platform and development of a collection of dissemination materials to facilitate interactions have been achieved by COMFORT. COMFORT members participated in important international scientific events to communicate these findings such as in EGU, AGU, and during COP28, to name a few.
Best practice of FAIR data mandate, open-access articles, and data protection ethics have been carefully conducted and ensured by COMFORT throughout the project.
COMFORT has been successfully completed. Four synthesis papers are currently being prepared for publication. These papers aim to effectively communicate all the findings, warn about urgent alerts, and efforts to bridge the knowledge gap on ocean tipping points in a succinct and informative manner.
Through comprehensive analyses, COMFORT has identified and characterized the impacts, risks, and thresholds of ocean tipping points that affect marine ecosystems at various trophic levels. This encompasses evaluating both historical and projected tipping points that directly influence the biotic and abiotic drivers of ecosystems, as well as the vulnerability of fish stocks and coral reefs to abrupt changes. From this identified alarming change in the ocean, COMFORT proposed adoption of the Safe Operating Space (SOS) concept, part of the planetary boundary framework, analyze climate-induced abrupt changes affecting marine species and ecosystems which help to advise policy about future mitigation pathways.
Besides outstanding scientific peer reviewed article published on this subject, policy events, workshops, stakeholder engagement events, contribution to the IPCC and to the upcoming COP28 have been promoted and organize to communicate the imminent alert on ocean tipping point. Moreover, COMFORT was among the most productive EU projects (CINEA funded) concerning material cited in the 6th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Working Groups I and II).
COMFORT also provided a set of mitigation strategies to address climate-induced tipping points and evaluate the potential risks associated with selected mitigation measures. Furthermore, they aimed to precisely identify ocean tipping points related to surpassing the temperature target (1.5°C) specified in the Paris Agreement. This was achieved by conducting idealized simulations that incorporated the implementation of large-scale carbon dioxide removal techniques. This includes pilot studies of carbon dioxide removal implementation but have warned about risks and uncertainties generated.
Dissemination of results has been strategically operated in using a new framework to facilitate and communicate project results in a language and format appropriate to Stakeholder Reference Group (SRG) and other target audiences. A web-based SRG interaction-platform and development of a collection of dissemination materials to facilitate interactions have been achieved by COMFORT. COMFORT members participated in important international scientific events to communicate these findings such as in EGU, AGU, and during COP28, to name a few.
Best practice of FAIR data mandate, open-access articles, and data protection ethics have been carefully conducted and ensured by COMFORT throughout the project.
COMFORT has been successfully completed. Four synthesis papers are currently being prepared for publication. These papers aim to effectively communicate all the findings, warn about urgent alerts, and efforts to bridge the knowledge gap on ocean tipping points in a succinct and informative manner.
The CT1 provided a new framework on the most crucial regional hotspots and time windows for tipping elements as well as new knowledge about tipping points and regime shifts related to warming, de-oxygenation, and ocean acidification.
The CT2 delivered new insights on potential risks and impacts of the past and future climate-induced tipping points on the marine ecosystems at different trophic levels. Major progress has been undertaken in assessing climatic impacts on a suite of organisms from plankton to commercially exploitable fishes. Accordingly, various case studies have been carried out.
The CT3 provided concrete mitigation targets and pathways to avoid dangerous impacts on the ocean realm by avoiding the crossing of tipping point thresholds. CT3 explored a series of mitigation scenarios with complex Earth System Models in order to determine potential options in climate policies. CT3 highly recommends defining a plan to face a world with more extreme climate events if Negative Emissions Technologies initiative fails.
CT4 produced and promoted stakeholder engagements and key knowledge for climate decisions. It has been combined with COMFORT recent results, and new information has been provided to decision makers, policy makers, scientists, the IPCC writing teams, and the general public. The CT4 provided an optimal use and usefulness of the prospective COMFORT results of CTs 1-3 within the stakeholder communities.
In summary, COMFORT closed knowledge gaps for key ocean tipping elements within the Earth system under global warming. COMFORT’s work has largely contributed to increasing awareness to scientists, policy makers and the public concerning potential damage from imminent ocean tipping points due to global warming. Four synthesis papers are underway to disseminate and pass on COMFORT’s legacy. These documents are critical in assisting mitigation efforts and contribute to the IPCC report as well as a follow-up of the Paris agreement guided by scientific guardrails.
The CT2 delivered new insights on potential risks and impacts of the past and future climate-induced tipping points on the marine ecosystems at different trophic levels. Major progress has been undertaken in assessing climatic impacts on a suite of organisms from plankton to commercially exploitable fishes. Accordingly, various case studies have been carried out.
The CT3 provided concrete mitigation targets and pathways to avoid dangerous impacts on the ocean realm by avoiding the crossing of tipping point thresholds. CT3 explored a series of mitigation scenarios with complex Earth System Models in order to determine potential options in climate policies. CT3 highly recommends defining a plan to face a world with more extreme climate events if Negative Emissions Technologies initiative fails.
CT4 produced and promoted stakeholder engagements and key knowledge for climate decisions. It has been combined with COMFORT recent results, and new information has been provided to decision makers, policy makers, scientists, the IPCC writing teams, and the general public. The CT4 provided an optimal use and usefulness of the prospective COMFORT results of CTs 1-3 within the stakeholder communities.
In summary, COMFORT closed knowledge gaps for key ocean tipping elements within the Earth system under global warming. COMFORT’s work has largely contributed to increasing awareness to scientists, policy makers and the public concerning potential damage from imminent ocean tipping points due to global warming. Four synthesis papers are underway to disseminate and pass on COMFORT’s legacy. These documents are critical in assisting mitigation efforts and contribute to the IPCC report as well as a follow-up of the Paris agreement guided by scientific guardrails.