Periodic Reporting for period 2 - COMFORT (Our common future ocean in the Earth system – quantifying coupled cycles of carbon, oxygen, and nutrients for determining and achieving safe operating spaces with respect to tipping points)
Berichtszeitraum: 2021-03-01 bis 2022-08-31
The following specific objectives are addressed (CT=core theme, WP= work package; Figure):
1. Identify climate-induced ocean TPs and attribute them to processes (CT1, WPs 1-2).
2. Quantify related impacts and establish multi-dimensional safe operating spaces (SOS) (CT2, WPs 3-4).
3. Provide respective mitigation targets and options, as well as projected mitigation pathways (CT3, WPs 5-6).
4. Integrate stakeholder knowledge and provide new results including data to users (CT4, WPs 7-10).
Concerning cross-cutting issues, progress has been made on stakeholder engagement, data set collation/compilation, communication/dissemination, project management, and following ethical rules. A suite of new peer-reviewed publications was achieved including papers in high-impact journals. COMFORT was among the most productive EU projects (CINEA funded) concerning material cited in the 6th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Working Group II). COMFORT also organised a policy event on tipping points together with the two other relevant projects that originally responded to the same call for proposals. The project website was continuously updated. A lot of effort and attention was placed on open access publishing.
The CT2 provided knowledge of the potential impact caused by the occurrence of climate-induced tipping points through a framework of “if” and “then”. A major progress has been made in assessing climatic impacts on a suite of organisms from plankton to commercially exploitable fishes. For this, a series of case studies have been carried out.
The CT3 provided the presentation of concrete mitigation targets and pathways to avoid dangerous impacts on the ocean realm by avoiding the crossing of critical thresholds for tipping points. The results should represent both: new forcing scenarios and new projections concerning pathways for a sustainable future of ocean ecosystems. CT3 explored a series of mitigation scenarios with complex Earth system models in order to determine potential options in climate policies. In view of the problems associated with Negative Emissions Technologies on one side, and the difficulties in achieving greenhouse gas emission reduction targets, societies may have to plan for a world with substantially more abrupt and extreme climate events.
In CT4, existing stakeholder knowledge has been combined with COMFORT recent results and new information has been provided to decision makers, policy makers, scientists, the IPCC writing teams, and the general public. The CT4 provided an optimal use and usefulness of the prospective COMFORT results of CTs 1-3 within the stakeholder communities.
In summary, COMFORT work has already contributed to a larger awareness of the scientific community, policy makers and the public concerning potential damage from imminent ocean tipping points due to warming, ocean acidification, and deoxygenation. An example is the tipping point policy event organised by CINEA and a joint policy brief (https://zenodo.org/record/6577027#.Y1ubQuRBwuX). In the final phase of the project four synthesis papers (one per CT) are expected to emerge forming COMFORT’s legacy. These papers are expected to help to make efforts towards limiting the damage of increased greenhouse gas emissions to the marine ecosystems and contribute to the IPCC report and a follow-up of the Paris agreement guided by scientific guardrails.