Constraining uncertainty of multi decadal climate projections

CORDIS proporciona enlaces a los documentos públicos y las publicaciones de los proyectos de los programas marco HORIZONTE.

Los enlaces a los documentos y las publicaciones de los proyectos del Séptimo Programa Marco, así como los enlaces a algunos tipos de resultados específicos, como conjuntos de datos y «software», se obtienen dinámicamente de OpenAIRE .

Resultado final

Emission pathway tool published online

D5.1 (M16, IMPERIAL, CLIMATE ANALYTICS): Emission pathway tool published online (Task 5.1.1).

Short report on main outcomes and participating organisations of the workshop on aerosol-cloud interactions

D1.2 (M24, Met Office, ULEI): Short report on main outcomes and participating organisations of the workshop on aerosol-cloud interactions from models vs. observations after volcanic eruptions and other constraints for aerosol-cloud interactions. Participants of this two day workshop will include 7 CONSTRAIN scientists and 2 international participants (for whom costs will be covered by the programme) and up to 9 other participants (who will be expected to cover their own travel, accommodation and subsistence costs) (Tasks 1.1.2 and 1.1.4).

Short report on main outcomes and participating organisations of the workshop on understanding of rapid adjustment processes

D1.5 (M36, UNIVLEEDS, ULEI, CICERO): Short report on main outcomes of the workshop on understanding rapid adjustment processes: participating organisations: representatives from the H2020 FORCES project, ECMWF CAMS aerosol and radiative forcing projects, and 1-2 non-EU key laboratories. Participants of this two day workshop will include 7 CONSTRAIN scientists and 2 international participants (for whom costs will be covered by the programme) and up to 9 other participants (who will be expected to cover their own travel, accommodation and subsistence costs) (Tasks 1.2.1, 1.2.2 and 1.2.3).

Short report on main outcomes and participating organisations of the workshop on frameworks for characterizing mesoscale organisation of shallow convection

D2.2 (M12, TU DELFT, CNRS, MPG, ETH, METEO-FRANCE): Short report on main outcomes and participating organisations of the workshop on frameworks for characterizing mesoscale organisation of shallow convection from observations and assessing their role for cloud feedbacks using a hierarchy of models. Participants of this two day workshop will include 12 CONSTRAIN scientists and 3 international participants (for whom costs will be covered by the programme) and up to 15 other participants (who will be expected to cover their own travel, accommodation and subsistence costs) (Task 2.2.2.1).

Online GitHub Code documenting the improvements made to the emulators regarding their use of climate patterns for climate impact (FAIR) and feedbacks (OSCAR) studies

D4.10 (M30, CNRS, IASA, UNIVLEEDS): Online GitHub code of the emulators with improvements made regarding their use of climate patterns for climate impact (FAIR) and feedbacks (OSCAR) studies (Task 4.3.1).

End-of-project KGSIR on the improved physical understanding and quantification of tropical low-cloud feedbacks

D2.4 (M48, CNRS, MPG, TU DELFT): End-of-project KGSIR on the improved physical understanding and quantification of tropical low-cloud feedbacks (Task 2.2 and 2.3 and all related subtasks), and their implications for WP-4 by revisiting the plausible range of climate sensitivity estimates in the light of new observational constraints.

End-of-Project KGSIR on interaction of ocean heat uptake and radiative feedback change via SST-pattern change

D3.2 (M42, MET OFFICE, STOCKHOLM, MPG): End-of-Project KGSIR on interaction of ocean heat uptake and radiative feedback change via SST-pattern change. Quantifying the likelihood of future periods, which are similar to the last 30 years (strong ocean heat uptake combined with negative feedback parameter) (Tasks 3.1.2, 3.1.3).

Annual CONSTRAIN report 3 on adaptation and mitigation choices

D58 M30 CLIMATE ANALYTICS Annual CONSTRAIN report 3 on adaptation and mitigation choices launched at annual December side event at UNFCCC COP Task 521

End-of-project KGSIR on ERF developments

D1.3 (M48, CICERO, UNIVLEEDS, ULEI): End-of-project KGSIR on ERF developments, including time evolution, causes on diversity in ERF of CO2 and quantification of model errors, constrained ERF for aerosol-cloud interactions from models vs. observations after volcanic eruptions (Tasks. 1.1.1 and 1.1.3).

Annual CONSTRAIN report 2 on adaptation and mitigation choices

D5.7 (M18; CLIMATE ANALYTICS): Annual CONSTRAIN report 2 on adaptation and mitigation choices launched at annual December side event at UNFCCC COP. (Task 5.2.1).

KGSIR aimed at adaptation planners with info graphics on the robustness of 20-30 year projections

D5.2 (M36, CNRS, UNIVLEEDS, CLIMATE ANALYTICS, IMPERIAL): KGSIR aimed at adaptation planners characterising how scenario, policy and geophysical uncertainties affect projections over the next 20 to 30 years (Task 5.1.2).

Short report on main outcomes and participating organisations of the workshop on approaches to constraining climate sensitivity and integrating new insights on climate sensitivity

D43 M24 UNIVLEEDS ETH MPG STOCKHOLM Short report on main outcomes and participating organisations of the workshop for the scientific community on the various approaches to constrain climate sensitivity and integrating new insights on climate sensitivity developed by the midterm of the project in WPs 13 Participants of this two day workshop will include 7 CONSTRAIN scientists and 2 international participants for whom costs will be covered by the programme and up to 9 other participants who will be expected to cover their own travel accommodation and subsistence costs Task 422

KGSIR outlining the CONSTRAIN journal publications used by IPCC AR6 and the overall contribution to IPCC AR6

D4.1 (M16, UNIVLEEDS, MPG): A KGSIR outlining the CONSTRAIN journal publications used by IPCC AR6 and the overall contribution to IPCC AR6 (Tasks 4.1.1 and 4.1.2). This is expected to include at least 7 journal publications for relevant chapters as detailed in Section 2.

KGSIR on knowledge gained in understanding of climate sensitivity and its role in projections

D4.8 (M42, ETH, UNIVLEEDS, MPG, SU): A KGSIR on knowledge gained in understanding of climate sensitivity, TCRE and its role in projections (Task 4.2.2, 4.2.3).

Annual CONSTRAIN report 1 on adaptation and mitigation choices

D5.6 (M7; CLIMATE ANALYTICS): Annual CONSTRAIN report 1 on adaptation and mitigation choices launched at annual December side event at UNFCCC COP. (Task 5.2.1).

End-of-project KGSIR on rapid adjustment processes and constraint of ERF from spatiotemporal patterns

D1.6 (M48, ULEI, UNIVLEEDS, CICERO): End-of-project KGSIR on relative role of rapid adjustment processes and their timescales and constraint of ERF from spatiotemporal patterns (Tasks 1.2.1, 1.2.2 and 1.2.3)

Annual CONSTRAIN report 4 on adaptation and mitigation choices

D5.9 (M42; CLIMATE ANALYTICS): Annual CONSTRAIN report 4 on adaptation and mitigation choices launched at annual December side event at UNFCCC COP. (Task 5.2.1).

End-of-project KGSIR on robust circulation responses to climate change in the tropical Atlantic sector and in the mid-latitude European sector

D2.7 (M48, MPG, STOCKHOLM, WEIZMANN, CNRS): End-of-project KGSIR on robust circulation responses to climate change in the tropical Atlantic sector and in the mid-latitude European sector (all of Task 2.3).

End-of-Project KGSIR on the role of the ocean in setting the transient climate sensitivity

D3.3 (M48, METEO-FRANCE, MPG): End-of-Project KGSIR on the role of the ocean in setting the transient climate sensitivity to cumulative emissions, including the relative role of variations in SST patterns, the changes in ocean heat and carbon uptake (Tasks 3.1.2, 3.1.3, 3.2.2 and 3.2.3)

KGSIR on improved characterisation and understanding of the ERF concept.

D1.1 (M9, CICERO, UNIVLEEDS, MET OFFICE): KGSIR on improved characterisation and understanding of the ERF concept. This will be based on peer-reviewed publications to be assessed by IPCC AR6 on characterisation of model diversity of ERF due to CO2, on efficacy of climate drivers, and on time evolution of ERF (Task 1.1.1, 1.1.2, 1.1.3 and 1.1.4).

KGSIR on carbon budget estimates updates with the latest insights on forcing, variability and feedbacks

D5.3 (M48, IMPERIAL, CLIMATE ANALYTICS, UNIVLEEDS, CNRS): KGSIR on carbon budget estimates updates with the latest insights on forcing, variability and feedbacks, showing clearly how different uncertainties and short-lived climate forcer pathways affect budgets. Timed to meet IPCC AR6 WGI literature cut-off date and feed into Chapter 5 (Global carbon and other biogeochemical cycles and feedbacks). (Task 5.1.3 and 4.3.1).

Full documentation of the improved emulators in the form of a technical report or a model presentation publication for FAIR and OSCAR.

D4.11 (M36, CNRS, IASA, UNIVLEEDS): Full documentation of the improved emulators in the form of a technical report or a model presentation publication for FAIR and OSCAR (Task 4.3.1).

KGSIR assessing the skill of climate emulators

D4.12 (M36 ETH, IPSL-CNRS, UNIVLEEDS): KGSIR assessing the skill of climate emulators having participated in the intercomparison and how they should be used. This will examine the credibility of these tools and their limitations, which depends on the timescale, scenario and variable to inform scientists on how to use these emulators and inform policy makers where to trust their results (Task 4.3.2).

Online interactive infographics created such as the Climate Action Tracker, but targeting both adaptation and mitigation decisions

D5.12 (M48, CLIMATE ANALYTICS): Online interactive infographics created such as the Climate Action Tracker, but targeting both adaptation and mitigation decisions (Task 5.2.1).

Stakeholder driven and bespoke communication tools for general audience (e.g. graphic novel) on near term climate change

D5.11 (M48, UNIVLEEDS): A stakeholder driven and bespoke communication tool for general audience (e.g. graphic novel) on near term climate change. (Task 5.2.2).

Final CONSTRAIN summary input into the global stocktake

D5.10 (M44, CLIMATE ANALYTICS): Final CONSTRAIN summary input into the Global Stocktake. Whenever appropriate opportunities arise within the UNFCCC policy process leading up to the 2023 Global Stocktake. Depending on the modalities of the Global Stocktake process this deliverable could occur between M36 – M48 (Task 5.2.1).

Publicaciones

Understanding the Extreme Spread in Climate Sensitivity within the Radiative‐Convective Equilibrium Model Intercomparison Project

Autores: Becker T., Wing A.A.
Publicado en: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Edición Vol. 12, Edición 10, 2020, Página(s) Pages e2020MS002165, ISSN 1942-2466
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020ms002165

Modifying Emissions Scenario Projections to Account for the Effects of COVID-19: Protocol for CovidMIP

Autores: Lamboll R.D., Jones C.D., Skeie R.B., Fiedler S., Samset B.H., Gillett N.P., Rogelj J., Forster P.M.
Publicado en: Geoscientific Model Development, Edición Vol. 14, Edición 6, 2021, Página(s) Pages 3683-3695, ISSN 1991-9603
Editor: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-14-3683-2021

Inter-Model Variability in Convection-Resolving Simulations of Subtropical Marine Low Clouds

Autores: Heim C., Hentgen L., Ban N., Schär C.
Publicado en: Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan Ser. II, Edición Vol. 99, Edición 5, 2021, Página(s) Pages 1271-1295, ISSN 2186-9057
Editor: Nihon kisho gakkai
DOI: 10.2151/jmsj.2021-062

Multiple Drivers of the North Atlantic Warming Hole

Autores: Keil P., Mauritsen T., Jungclaus J., Hedemann C., Olonscheck D., Ghosh R.
Publicado en: Nature Climate Change, Edición Vol. 10, Edición 7, 2020, Página(s) Pages 667-671, ISSN 1758-6798
Editor: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0819-8

Assessing the Size and Uncertainty of Remaining Carbon Budgets

Autores: Lamboll R.D., Nicholls Z.R.J., Smith C.J., Kikstra J.S., Byers E., Rogelj J.
Publicado en: Nature Climate Change, 2023, ISSN 1758-6798
Editor: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01848-5

Projected Land Ice Contributions to Twenty-First-Century Sea Level Rise

Autores: Edwards T.L., Nowicki S., Marzeion B., Hock R., Goelzer H., Seroussi H., Jourdain N.C., Slater D.A., Turner F.E., Smith C.J., McKenna C.M., Simon E., Abe-Ouchi A., Gregory J.M., Larour E., Lipscomb W.H., Payne A.J., Shepherd A., Agosta C., Alexander P., Albrecht T., Anderson B., Asay-Davis X., Aschwanden A., Barthel A., Bliss A., Calov R., Chambers C., Champollion N., Choi Y., Cullather R., Cuzzon
Publicado en: Nature, Edición Vol. 593, Edición 7857, 2021, Página(s) Pages 74-82, ISSN 1476-4687
Editor: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y

Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Modulates the Climate Impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation in Australia

Autores: Trascasa-Castro P., Maycock A.C., Ruprich-Robert Y., Turco M., Staten P.W.
Publicado en: Environmental Research Letters, Edición Vol. 18, Edición 8, 2023, Página(s) Pages 084029, ISSN 1748-9326
Editor: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ace920

Evaluating Large-Domain, Hecto-Meter, Large-Eddy Simulations of Trade-Wind Clouds Using EUREC4A Data

Autores: Schulz H. and Stevens B.
Publicado en: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Edición Vol. 15, Edición 10, 2023, Página(s) Pages e2023MS003648, ISSN 1942-2466
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2023ms003648

Quantifying Uncertainty in Aggregated Climate Change Risk Assessments

Autores: Harrington L.J., Schleussner C.-F., Otto F.E.L.
Publicado en: Nature Communications, Edición Vol. 12, Edición 1, 2021, Página(s) Pages 7140, ISSN 2041-1723
Editor: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-27491-2

Effects of Local and Remote Black Carbon Aerosols on Summer Monsoon Precipitation Over India

Autores: Krishnamohan K.S., Modak A., Bala G.
Publicado en: Environmental Research Communications, Edición Vol. 3, Edición 8, 2021, Página(s) Pages 081003, ISSN 2515-7620
Editor: IOP Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/ac18d1

Scientific Data from Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project

Autores: Myhre G., Samset B., Forster P.M., Hodnebrog Ø., Sandstad M., Mohr C.W., Sillmann J., Stjern C.W., Andrews T., Boucher O., Faluvegi G., Iversen T., Lamarque J.-F., Kasoar M., Kirkevåg A., Kramer R., Liu L., Mülmenstädt J., Olivié D., Quaas J., Richardson T.B., Shawki D., Shindell D., Smith C., Stier P., Tang T., Takemura T., Voulgarakis A., Watson-Parris D.
Publicado en: Nature Scientific Data, Edición Vol. 9, Edición 1, 2022, Página(s) Pages 123, ISSN 2052-4463
Editor: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41597-022-01194-9

The Impact of CO2-Driven Climate Change on the Arctic Atmospheric Energy Budget in CMIP6 Climate Model Simulations

Autores: Linke O., Quaas J.
Publicado en: Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, Edición Vol. 74, Edición 1, 2022, Página(s) Pages 106–118, ISSN 1600-0870
Editor: Taylor & Francis
DOI: 10.16993/tellusa.29

On the Structure of Instantaneous Radiative Forcing Kernels for Greenhouse Gases

Autores: Maycock A.C., Smith C.J., Rap A., Rutherford O.
Publicado en: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Edición Vol. 78, Edición 3, 2021, Página(s) Pages 949-965, ISSN 0022-4928
Editor: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jas-d-19-0267.1

Application of the Pseudo-Global Warming Approach in a Kilometer-Resolution Climate Simulation of the Tropics

Autores: Heim C., Leutwyler D., Schär C.
Publicado en: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Edición Vol. 128, Edición 5, 2023, Página(s) Pages e2022JD037958, ISSN 2169-897X
Editor: Wiley
DOI: 10.1029/2022jd037958

The Pseudo-Global-Warming (PGW) Approach: Methodology, Software Package PGW4ERA5 v1.1, Validation and Sensitivity Analysis

Autores: Brogli R., Heim C., Mensch J., Sørland S.L., Schär C.
Publicado en: Geoscientific Model Development, Edición Vol. 16, Edición 3, 2023, Página(s) Pages 907-926, ISSN 1991-9603
Editor: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-907-2023

Biased Estimates of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity and Transient Climate Response Derived From Historical CMIP6 Simulations

Autores: Dong Y., Armour K.C., Proistosescu C., Andrews T., Battisti D.S., Forster P.M., Paynter D., Smith C.J., Shiogama H.
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición Vol. 48, Edición 24, 2021, Página(s) Pages e2021GL095778, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2021gl095778

Path Independence of Carbon Budgets When Meeting a Stringent Global Mean Temperature Target After an Overshoot

Autores: Tokarska K.B., Zickfeld K., Rogelj J.
Publicado en: Earth's Future, Edición Vol. 7, Edición 12, 2019, Página(s) Pages 1283-1295, ISSN 2328-4277
Editor: Wiley
DOI: 10.1029/2019ef001312

Clouds and Convective Self‐Aggregation in a Multimodel Ensemble of Radiative‐Convective Equilibrium Simulations

Autores: Wing A.A., Stauffer C.L., Becker T., Reed K.A., Ahn M.-S., Arnold N.P., Bony S., Branson M., Bryan G.H., Chaboureau J.-P., De Roode S.R., Gayatri K., Hohenegger C., Hu I.-K., Jansson F., Jones T.R., Khairoutdinov M., Kim D., Martin Z.K., Matsugishi S., Medeiros B., Miura H., Moon Y., Müller S.K., Ohno T., Popp M., Prabhakaran T., Randall D., Rios‐Berrios R., Rochetin N., Roehrig R., Romps D.M.
Publicado en: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Edición Vol. 12, Edición 9, 2020, Página(s) Pages e2020MS002138, ISSN 1942-2466
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020ms002138

Understanding Top‐of‐Atmosphere Flux Bias in the AeroCom Phase III Models: A Clear‐Sky Perspective

Autores: Su W., Liang L., Myhre G., Thorsen T.J., Loeb N.G., Schuster G.L., Ginoux P., Paulot F., Neubauer D., Checa-Garcia R., Matsui H., Tsigaridis K., Skeie R.B., Takemura T., Bauer S.E., Schulz M.
Publicado en: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Edición Vol. 13, Edición 9, 2021, Página(s) Pages e2021MS002584, ISSN 1942-2466
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2021ms002584

Northern-High-Latitude Permafrost and Terrestrial Carbon Response to Two Solar Geoengineering Scenarios

Autores: Chen Y., Ji D., Zhang Q., Moore J.C., Boucher O., Jones A., Lurton T., Mills M.J., Niemeier U., Séférian R., Tilmes S.
Publicado en: Earth System Dynamics, Edición Vol. 14, Edición 1, 2023, Página(s) Pages 55-79, ISSN 2190-4987
Editor: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/esd-14-55-2023

Present‐Day and Historical Aerosol and Ozone Characteristics in CNRM CMIP6 Simulations

Autores: Michou M., Nabat P., Saint‐Martin D., Bock J., Decharme B., Mallet M., Roehrig R., Séférian R., Sénési S., Voldoire A.
Publicado en: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Edición Vol. 12, Edición 1, 2019, Página(s) Pages e2019MS001816, ISSN 1942-2466
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2019ms001816

ICON-Sapphire: Simulating the Components of the Earth System and Their Interactions at Kilometer and Subkilometer Scales

Autores: Hohenegger C., Korn P., Linardakis L., Redler R., Schnur R., Adamidis P., Bao J., Bastin S., Behravesh M., Bergemann M., Biercamp J., Bockelmann H., Brokopf R., Brüggemann N., Casaroli L., Chegini F., Datseris G., Esch M., George G., Giorgetta M., Gutjahr O., Haak H., Hanke M., Ilyina T., Jahns T., Jungclaus J., Kern M., Klocke D., Kluft L., Kölling T., Kornblueh L., Kosukhin S., Kroll C., Lee J
Publicado en: Geoscientific Model Development, Edición Vol. 16, Edición 2, 2023, Página(s) Pages 779-811, ISSN 1991-9603
Editor: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-779-2023

Ten New Insights in Climate Science 2021: A Horizon Scan

Autores: Martin M.A., Sendra O.A., Bastos A., Bauer N., Bertram C., Blenckner T., Bowen K., Brando P.M., Rudolph T.B., Büchs M., Bustamante M., Chen D., Cleugh H., Dasgupta P., Denton F., Donges J.F., Donkor F.K., Duan H., Duarte C.M., Ebi K.L., Edwards C.M., Engel A., Fisher E., Fuss S., Gaertner J., Gettelman A., Girardin C.A.J., Golledge N.R., Green J.F., Grose M.R., Hashizume M., Hebden S., Hepach H.,
Publicado en: Global Sustainability, Edición Vol. 4, 2021, Página(s) Pages e25, ISSN 2059-4798
Editor: Cambridge University Press
DOI: 10.1017/sus.2021.25

Sources of Uncertainty in Multimodel Large Ensemble Projections of the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation

Autores: McKenna C.M., Maycock A.C.
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición Vol. 48, Edición 14, 2021, Página(s) Pages e2021GL093258, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2021gl093258

Silicone v1.0.0: An Open-Source Python Package for Inferring Missing Emissions Data for Climate Change Research

Autores: Lamboll R.D., Nicholls Z.R.J., Kikstra J.S., Meinshausen M., Rogelj J.
Publicado en: Geoscientific Model Development, Edición Vol. 13, Edición 11, 2020, Página(s) Pages 5259-5275, ISSN 1991-9603
Editor: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-13-5259-2020

Broad Consistency Between Observed and Simulated Trends in Sea Surface Temperature Patterns

Autores: Olonscheck D., Rugenstein M., Marotzke J.
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición Vol. 47, Edición 10, 2020, Página(s) Pages e2019GL086773, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2019gl086773

Attribution of Multi-Annual to Decadal Changes in the Climate System: The Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP)

Autores: Smith D.M., Gillett N.P., Simpson I.R., Athanasiadis P.J., Baehr J., Bethke I., Bilge T.A., Bonnet R., Boucher O., Findell K.L., Gastineau G., Gualdi S., Hermanson L., Leung L.R., Mignot J., Müller W.A., Osprey S., Otterå O.H., Persad G.G., Scaife A.A., Schmidt G.A., Shiogama H., Sutton R.T., Swingedouw D., Yang S., Zhou T., Ziehn T.
Publicado en: Frontiers in Climate, Edición Vol. 4, 2022, ISSN 2624-9553
Editor: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2022.955414

Climate Model Projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

Autores: Tebaldi C., Debeire K., Eyring V., Fischer E., Fyfe J., Friedlingstein P., Knutti R., Lowe J., O'Neill B., Sanderson B., van Vuuren D., Riahi K., Meinshausen M., Nicholls Z., Tokarska K.B., Hurtt G., Kriegler E., Lamarque J.-F., Meehl G., Moss R., Bauer S.E., Boucher O., Brovkin V., Byun Y.-H., Dix M., Gualdi S., Guo H., John J.G., Kharin S., Kim Y., Koshiro T., Ma L., Olivié D., Panickal S., Qia
Publicado en: Earth System Dynamics, Edición Vol. 12, Edición 1, 2021, Página(s) Pages 253-293, ISSN 2190-4987
Editor: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/esd-12-253-2021

Global Carbon Budget 2021

Autores: Friedlingstein P., Jones M.W., O'Sullivan M., Andrew R.M., Bakker D.C.E., Hauck J., Le Quéré C., Peters G.P., Peters W., Pongratz J., Sitch S., Canadell J.G., Ciais P., Jackson R.B., Alin S.R., Anthoni P., Bates N.R., Becker M., Bellouin N., Bopp L., Chau T.T.T., Chevallier F., Chini L.P., Cronin M., Currie K.I., Decharme B., Djeutchouang L.M., Dou X., Evans W., Feely R.A., Feng L., Gasser T., G
Publicado en: Earth System Science Data, Edición Vol. 14, Edición 4, 2022, Página(s) Pages 1917-2005, ISSN 1866-3516
Editor: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022

Effective Radiative Forcing and Adjustments in CMIP6 Models

Autores: Smith C.J., Kramer R.J., Myhre G., Alterskjær K., Collins W., Sima A., Boucher O., Dufresne J.-L., Nabat P., Michou M., Yukimoto S., Cole J., Paynter D., Shiogama H., O'Connor F.M., Robertson E., Wiltshire A., Andrews T., Hannay C., Miller R., Nazarenko L., Kirkevåg A., Olivié D., Fiedler S., Lewinschal A., Mackallah C., Dix M., Pincus R., Forster P.M.
Publicado en: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Edición Vol. 20, Edición 16, 2020, Página(s) Pages 9591-9618, ISSN 1680-7324
Editor: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020

Climate Model Selection by Independence, Performance, and Spread (ClimSIPS v1.0.1) for Regional Applications

Autores: Merrifield A.L., Brunner L., Lorenz R., Humphrey V., Knutti R.
Publicado en: Geoscientific Model Development, Edición Vol. 16, Edición 16, 2023, Página(s) Pages 4715-4747, ISSN 1991-9603
Editor: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-4715-2023

Global Carbon Budget 2020

Autores: Friedlingstein P., O'Sullivan M., Jones M.W., Andrew R.M., Hauck J., Olsen A., Peters G.P., Peters W., Pongratz J., Sitch S., Le Quéré C., Canadell J.G., Ciais P., Jackson R.B., Alin S., Aragão L.E.O., Arneth A., Arora V., Bates N.R., Becker M., Benoit-Cattin A., Bittig H.C., Bopp L., Bultan S., Chandra N., Chevallier F., Chini L.P., Evans W., Florentie L., Forster P.M., Gasser T., Gehlen M., G
Publicado en: Earth System Science Data, Edición Vol. 12, Edición 4, 2020, Página(s) Pages 3269-3340, ISSN 1866-3516
Editor: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020

The Effect of Rapid Adjustments to Halocarbons and N2O on Radiative Forcing

Autores: Hodnebrog Ø., Myhre G., Kramer R.J., Shine K.P., Andrews T., Faluvegi G., Kasoar M., Kirkevåg A., Lamarque J.-F., Mülmenstädt J., Olivié D., Samset B.H., Shindell D., Smith C.J., Takemura T., Voulgarakis A.
Publicado en: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Edición Vol. 3, Edición 1, 2020, Página(s) Pages 43, ISSN 2397-3722
Editor: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-020-00150-x

Widespread Shallow Mesoscale Circulations Observed in the Trades

Autores: George G., Stevens B., Bony S., Vogel R., Naumann A.K.
Publicado en: Nature Geoscience, Edición Vol. 16, Edición 7, 2023, Página(s) 584-589, ISSN 1752-0908
Editor: Springer Nature
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Stratospheric Ozone Response to Sulfate Aerosol and Solar Dimming Climate Interventions based on the G6 Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) Simulations

Autores: Tilmes S., Visioni D., Jones A., Haywood J., Séférian R., Nabat P., Boucher O., Bednarz E.M., Niemeier U.
Publicado en: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Edición Vol. 22, Edición 7, 2022, Página(s) Pages 4557-4579, ISSN 1680-7324
Editor: Copernicus Publications
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Convection Self-Aggregation in CNRM-CM6-1: Equilibrium and Transition Sensitivity to Surface Temperature

Autores: Coppin D., Roehrig R.
Publicado en: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Edición Vol. 14, Edición 12, 2022, Página(s) Pages e2022MS003064, ISSN 1942-2466
Editor: American Geophysical Union
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Latest Climate Models Confirm Need for Urgent Mitigation

Autores: Forster P.M., Maycock A.C., McKenna C.M., Smith C.J.
Publicado en: Nature Climate Change, Edición Vol. 10, Edición 1, 2019, Página(s) Pages 7-10, ISSN 1758-6798
Editor: Springer Nature
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Autores: Tokarska K.B., Schleussner C.-F., Rogelj J., Stolpe M.B., Matthews H.D., Pfleiderer P., Gillett N.P.
Publicado en: Nature Geoscience, Edición Vol. 12, Edición 12, 2019, Página(s) Pages 964-971, ISSN 1752-0908
Editor: Springer Nature
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Decomposing the Response of the Stratospheric Brewer-Dobson Circulation to an Abrupt Quadrupling in CO2

Autores: Chrysanthou A., Maycock A.C., Chipperfield M.P.
Publicado en: Weather and Climate Dynamics, Edición Vol. 1, Edición 1, 2020, Página(s) Pages 155-174, ISSN 2698-4016
Editor: Copernicus Publications
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Estimating and Tracking the Remaining Carbon Budget for Stringent Climate Targets

Autores: Rogelj J., Forster P.M., Kriegler E., Smith C.J., Séférian R.
Publicado en: Nature, Edición Vol. 571, Edición 7765, 2019, Página(s) Pages 335-342, ISSN 1476-4687
Editor: Springer Nature
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An Emission Pathway Classification Reflecting the Paris Agreement Climate Objectives

Autores: Schleussner C.-F., Ganti G., Rogelj J., Gidden M.J.
Publicado en: Communications Earth & Environment, Edición Vol. 3, Edición 1, 2022, Página(s) Pages 135, ISSN 2662-4435
Editor: Springer Nature
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Hadley Cell Size and Strength Responses Depend on Turbulent Drag

Autores: Flynn C.M. and Mauritsen T.
Publicado en: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Edición Vol. 80, Edición 4, 2023, Página(s) Pages 1047-1064, ISSN 0022-4928
Editor: American Meteorological Society
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Emissions Estimations Should Embed a Precautionary Principle

Autores: Hoepner A.G.F., Rogelj J.
Publicado en: Nature Climate Change, Edición Vol. 11, Edición 8, 2021, Página(s) Pages 638-640, ISSN 1758-6798
Editor: Springer Nature
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Indicate Separate Contributions of Long-Lived and Short-Lived Greenhouse Gases in Emission Targets

Autores: Allen M.R., Peters G.P., Shine K.P., Azar C., Balcombe P., Boucher O., Cain M., Ciais P., Collins W., Forster P.M., Frame D.J., Friedlingstein P., Fyson C., Gasser T., Hare B., Jenkins S., Hamburg S.P., Johansson D.J.A., Lynch J., Macey A., Morfeldt J., Nauels A., Ocko I., Oppenheimer M., Pacala S.W., Pierrehumbert R., Rogelj J., Schaeffer M., Schleussner C.-F., Shindell D., Skeie R.B., Smith S.M.
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Editor: Springer Nature
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Climate Impact of Aircraft-Induced Cirrus Assessed from Satellite Observations Before and During COVID-19

Autores: Quaas J., Gryspeerdt E., Vautard R., Boucher O.
Publicado en: Environmental Research Letters, Edición Vol. 16, Edición 6, 2021, Página(s) Pages 064051, ISSN 1748-9326
Editor: Institute of Physics Publishing
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Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Synthesizing Earth System Knowledge for Probabilistic Climate Projections

Autores: Nicholls Z., Meinshausen M., Lewis J., Corradi M.R., Dorheim K., Gasser T., Gieseke R., Hope A.P., Leach N.J., McBride L.A., Quilcaille Y., Rogelj J., Salawitch R.J., Samset B.H., Sandstad M., Shiklomanov A., Skeie R.B., Smith C.J., Smith S.J., Su X., Tsutsui J., Vega-Westhoff B., Woodard D.L.
Publicado en: Earth's Future, Edición Vol. 9, Edición 6, 2021, Página(s) Pages e2020EF001900, ISSN 2328-4277
Editor: Wiley
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Identifying the Sources of Uncertainty in Climate Model Simulations of Solar Radiation Modification with the G6sulfur and G6solar Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) Simulations

Autores: Visioni D., MacMartin D.G., Kravitz B., Boucher O., Jones A., Lurton T., Martine M., Mills M.J., Nabat P., Niemeier U., Séférian R., Tilmes S.
Publicado en: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Edición Vol. 21, Edición 13, 2021, Página(s) Pages 10039-10063, ISSN 1680-7324
Editor: Copernicus Publications
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Strong Aerosol Cooling Alone Does Not Explain Cold-Biased Mid-Century Temperatures in CMIP6 models

Autores: Flynn C.M., Huusko L., Modak A., Mauritsen T.
Publicado en: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Edición Vol. 23, Edición 23, 2023, Página(s) Pages 15121-15133, ISSN 1680-7324
Editor: Copernicus Publications
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Warm Phase of AMV Damps ENSO Through Weakened Thermocline Feedback

Autores: Trascasa-Castro P., Ruprich-Robert Y., Castruccio F. Maycock A.C.
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición Vol. 48, Edición 23, 2021, Página(s) Pages e2021GL096149, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
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On the Daily Cycle of Mesoscale Cloud Organization in the Winter Trades

Autores: Vial J., Vogel R., Schulz H.
Publicado en: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Edición Vol. 147, Edición 738, 2021, Página(s) Pages 2850-2873, ISSN 0035-9009
Editor: Royal Meteorological Society
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Nonlinearity of the Cloud Response Postpones Climate Penalty of Mitigating Air Pollution in Polluted Regions

Autores: Jia, H., Quaas, J.
Publicado en: Nature Climate Change, Edición 13, 2023, Página(s) 943–950, ISSN 1758-6798
Editor: Springer Nature
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Clear-Sky Control of Anvils in Response to Increased CO2 or Surface Warming or Volcanic Eruptions

Autores: Saint-Lu M., Bony S., Dufresne J.-L.
Publicado en: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Edición Vol. 5, Edición 1, 2022, Página(s) Pages 78, ISSN 2397-3722
Editor: Springer Nature
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Trends in AOD, Clouds, and Cloud Radiative Effects in Satellite Data and CMIP5 and CMIP6 Model Simulations Over Aerosol Source Regions

Autores: Cherian R., Quaas J.
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición Vol. 47, Edición 9, 2020, Página(s) Pages e2020GL087132, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
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What Could We Learn About Climate Sensitivity from Variability in the Surface Temperature Record?

Autores: Annan J.D., Hargreaves J.C., Mauritsen T., Stevens B.
Publicado en: Earth System Dynamics, Edición Vol. 11, Edición 3, 2020, Página(s) Pages 709-719, ISSN 2190-4987
Editor: Copernicus Publications
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The 2000–2012 Global Warming Hiatus More Likely With a Low Climate Sensitivity

Autores: Modak A., Mauritsen T.
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición Vol. 48, Edición 9, 2021, Página(s) Pages e2020GL091779, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
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A New Look at the Daily Cycle of Trade Wind Cumuli

Autores: Vial J., Vogel R., Bony S., Stevens B., Winker D.M., Cai X., Hohenegger C., Naumann A.K., Brogniez H.
Publicado en: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Edición Vol. 11, Edición 10, 2019, Página(s) Pages 3148-3166, ISSN 1942-2466
Editor: American Geophysical Union
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Unintentional Unfairness When Applying New Greenhouse Gas Emissions Metrics at Country Level

Autores: Rogelj J., Schleussner C.-F.
Publicado en: Environmental Research Letters, Edición Vol. 14, Edición 11, 2019, Página(s) Pages 114039, ISSN 1748-9326
Editor: Institute of Physics Publishing
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Storylines for Unprecedented Heatwaves Based on Ensemble Boosting

Autores: Fischer E.M., Beyerle U., Bloin-Wibe L., Gessner C., Humphrey V., Lehner F., Pendergrass A.G., Sippel S., Zeder J., Knutti R.
Publicado en: Nature Communications, Edición Vol. 14, Edición 1, 2023, Página(s) Pages 4643, ISSN 2041-1723
Editor: Nature Publishing Group
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Effect of Orographic Gravity Wave Drag on Northern Hemisphere Climate in Transient Simulations of the Last Deglaciation

Autores: Snoll B., Ivanovic R.F., Valdes P.J., Maycock A.C., Gregoire L.J.
Publicado en: Climate Dynamics, Edición Vol. 59, Edición 7, 2022, Página(s) Pages 2067-2079, ISSN 1432-0894
Editor: Springer Nature
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The Contribution of Global Aviation to Anthropogenic Climate Forcing for 2000 to 2018

Autores: Lee D.S., Fahey D.W., Skowron A., Allen M.R., Burkhardt U., Chen Q., Doherty S.J., Freeman S., Forster P.M., Fuglestvedt J., Gettelman A., De León R.R., Lim L.L., Lund M.T., Millar R.J., Owen B., Penner J.E., Pitari G., Prather M.J., Sausen R., Wilcox L.J.
Publicado en: Atmospheric Environment, Edición Vol. 244, 2020, Página(s) Pages 117834, ISSN 1352-2310
Editor: Elsevier BV
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The Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation for Projections of Winter Mean Precipitation in Europe

Autores: McKenna C.M., Maycock A.C.
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición Vol. 49, Edición 19, 2022, Página(s) Pages e2022GL099083, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
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Absorbing Aerosol Decreases Cloud Cover in Cloud-Resolving Simulations Over Germany

Autores: Senf F., Quaas J., Tegen I.
Publicado en: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Edición Vol. 147, Edición 741, 2021, Página(s) 4083-4100, ISSN 0035-9009
Editor: Royal Meteorological Society
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Presentation and Evaluation of the IPSL‐CM6A‐LR Ensemble of Extended Historical Simulations

Autores: Bonnet R., Boucher O., Deshayes J., Gastineau G., Hourdin F., Mignot J., Servonnat J., Swingedouw D.
Publicado en: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Edición Vol. 13, Edición 9, 2021, Página(s) Pages e2021MS002565, ISSN 1942-2466
Editor: American Geophysical Union
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Reducing Uncertainty in Local Temperature Projections

Autores: Qasmi S., Ribes A.
Publicado en: Science Advances, Edición Vol. 8, Edición 41, 2022, Página(s) Pages eabo6872, ISSN 2375-2548
Editor: American Association for the Advancement of Science
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The Zero Emissions Commitment and Climate Stabilization

Autores: Palazzo Corner S., Siegert M., Ceppi P., Fox-Kemper B., Frölicher T.L., Gallego-Sala A., Haigh J., Hegerl G.C., Jones C.D., Knutti R., Koven C.D., MacDougall A.H., Meinshausen M., Nicholls Z., Sallée J.B., Sanderson B.M., Séférian R., Turetsky M., Williams R.G., Zaehle S., Rogelj J.
Publicado en: Frontiers in Science, Edición 1, 2023, ISSN 2813-6330
Editor: Frontiers Media
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Simulated Tropical Precipitation Assessed across Three Major Phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)

Autores: Fiedler S., Crueger T., D'Agostino R., Peters K., Becker T., Leutwyler D., Paccini L., Burdanowitz J., Buehler S.A., Cortes A.U., Dauhut T., Dommenget D., Fraedrich K., Jungandreas L., Maher N., Naumann A.K., Rugenstein M., Sakradzija M., Schmidt H., Sielmann F., Stephan C., Timmreck C., Zhu X., Stevens B.
Publicado en: Monthly Weather Review, Edición Vol. 148, Edición 9, 2020, Página(s) Pages 3653-3680, ISSN 0027-0644
Editor: American Meteorological Society
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Observed and CMIP6 Modeled Internal Variability Feedbacks and Their Relation to Forced Climate Feedbacks

Autores: Uribe A., Bender F.A.-M., Mauritsen T.
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición Vol. 49, Edición 24, 2022, Página(s) Pages e2022GL100075, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
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EUREC4A

Autores: Stevens B., Bony S., Farrell D., Ament F., Blyth A., Fairall C., Karstensen J., Quinn P.K., Speich S., Acquistapace C., Aemisegger F., Albright A.L., Bellenger H., Bodenschatz E., Caesar K.-A., Chewitt-Lucas R., de Boer G., Delanoë J., Denby L., Ewald F., Fildier B., Forde M., George G., Gross S., Hagen M., Hausold A., Heywood K.J., Hirsch L., Jacob M., Jansen F., Kinne S., Klocke D., Kölling T.
Publicado en: Earth System Science Data, Edición Vol. 13, Edición 8, 2021, Página(s) Pages 4067-4119, ISSN 1866-3516
Editor: Copernicus Publications
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The Time Scales of Climate Responses to Carbon Dioxide and Aerosols

Autores: Stjern C.W., Forster P.M., Jia H., Jouan C., Kasoar M.R., Myhre G., Olivié D., Quaas J., Samset B.H., Sand M., Takemura T., Voulgarakis A., Wells C.D.
Publicado en: Journal of Climate, Edición Vol. 36, Edición 11, 2023, Página(s) Pages 3537-3551, ISSN 0894-8755
Editor: American Meteorological Society
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The Southern Hemisphere Midlatitude Circulation Response to Rapid Adjustments and Sea Surface Temperature Driven Feedbacks

Autores: Wood T., Maycock A.C., Forster P.M., Richardson T.B., Andrews T., Boucher O., Myhre G., Samset B.H., Kirkevåg A., Lamarque J.-F., Mülmenstädt J., Olivié D., Takemura T., Watson-Parris D.
Publicado en: Journal of Climate or American Meteorological Society, Edición Vol. 33, Edición 22, 2020, Página(s) Pages 9673-9690, ISSN 0894-8755
Editor: American Meteorological Society
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CMIP6 Simulations With the Compact Earth System Model OSCAR v3.1

Autores: Quilcaille Y., Gasser T., Ciais P., Boucher O.
Publicado en: Geoscientific Model Development, Edición Vol. 16, Edición 3, 2023, Página(s) Pages 1129-1161, ISSN 1991-9603
Editor: Copernicus Publications
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Evaluation of CNRM Earth System Model, CNRM-ESM2-1: Role of Earth System Processes in Present-Day and Future Climate

Autores: Séférian R., Nabat P., Michou M., Saint‐Martin D., Voldoire A., Colin J., Decharme B., Delire C., Berthet S., Chevallier M., Sénési S., Franchisteguy L., Vial J., Mallet M., Joetzjer E., Geoffroy O., Guérémy J.-F., Moine M.-P., Msadek R., Ribes A., Rocher M., Roehrig R., Salas‐y‐Mélia D., Sanchez E., Terray L., Valcke S., Waldman R., Aumont O., Bopp L., Deshayes J., Éthé C., Madec G
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Editor: American Geophysical Union
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Pathways of Climate Resilience Over the 21st Century

Autores: Schleussner C.-F., Pfleiderer P., Andrijevic M., Vogel M.M., Otto F.E.L., Seneviratne S.I.
Publicado en: Environmental Research Letters, Edición Vol. 16, Edición 5, 2021, Página(s) Pages 054058, ISSN 1748-9326
Editor: Institute of Physics Publishing
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Analysis of Polarimetric Satellite Measurements Suggests Stronger Cooling Due to Aerosol-Cloud Interactions

Autores: Hasekamp O.P., Gryspeerdt E., Quaas J.
Publicado en: Nature Communications, Edición Vol. 10, Edición 1, 2019, Página(s) Pages 5405, ISSN 2041-1723
Editor: Nature Publishing Group
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Impact of Bioenergy Crop Expansion on Climate-Carbon Cycle Feedbacks in Overshoot Scenarios

Autores: Melnikova I., Boucher O., Cadule P., Tanaka K., Gasser T., Hajima T., Quilcaille Y., Shiogama H., Séférian R., Tachiiri K., Vuichard N., Yokohata T., Ciais P.
Publicado en: Earth System Dynamics, Edición Vol. 13, Edición 2, 2022, Página(s) Pages 779-794, ISSN 2190-4987
Editor: Copernicus Publications
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Pathfinder v1.0.1: A Bayesian-Inferred Simple Carbon-Climate Model to Explore Climate Change Scenarios

Autores: Bossy T., Gasser T., Ciais P.
Publicado en: Geoscientific Model Development, Edición Vol. 15, Edición 23, 2022, Página(s) Pages 8831-8868, ISSN 1991-9603
Editor: Copernicus Publications
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Presentation and Evaluation of the IPSL‐CM6A‐LR Climate Model

Autores: Boucher O., Servonnat J., Albright A.L., Aumont O., Balkanski Y., Bastrikov V., Bekki S., Bonnet R., Bony S., Bopp L., Braconnot P., Brockmann P., Cadule P., Caubel A., Cheruy F., Codron F., Cozic A., Cugnet D., D'Andrea F., Davini P., Lavergne C., Denvil S., Deshayes J., Devilliers M., Ducharne A., Dufresne J.-L., Dupont E., Éthé C., Fairhead L., Falletti L., Flavoni S., Foujols M.-A., Gardoll
Publicado en: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Edición Vol. 12, Edición 7, 2020, Página(s) Pages e2019MS002010, ISSN 1942-2466
Editor: American Geophysical Union
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Comparing Different Generations of Idealized Solar Geoengineering Simulations in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

Autores: Kravitz B., MacMartin D.G., Visioni D., Boucher O., Cole J.N.S., Haywood J., Jones A., Lurton T., Nabat P., Niemeier U., Robock A., Séférian R., Tilmes S
Publicado en: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Edición Vol. 21, Edición 6, 2021, Página(s) Pages 4231-4247, ISSN 1680-7324
Editor: Copernicus Publications
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Current-Climate Sea Ice Amount and Seasonality As Constraints for Future Arctic Amplification

Autores: Linke O., Feldl N., Quaas J.
Publicado en: Environmental Research: Climate, Edición Vol. 2, Edición 4, 2023, Página(s) 045003, ISSN 2752-5295
Editor: IOP Publishing
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Drivers of Recent North Pacific Decadal Variability: The Role of Aerosol Forcing

Autores: Dittus A.J., Hawkins E., Robson J.I., Smith D.M., Wilcox L.J.
Publicado en: Earth's Future, Edición Vol. 9, Edición 12, 2021, Página(s) Pages e2021EF002249, ISSN 2328-4277
Editor: Wiley
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Large Variations in Volcanic Aerosol Forcing Efficiency Due to Eruption Source Parameters and Rapid Adjustments

Autores: Marshall L.R., Smith C.J., Forster P.M., Aubry T.J., Andrews T., Schmidt A.
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición Vol. 47, Edición 19, 2020, Página(s) Pages e2020GL090241, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
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Incremental Improvements of 2030 Targets Insufficient to Achieve the Paris Agreement Goals

Autores: Geiges A., Nauels A., Parra P.Y., Andrijevic M., Hare W., Pfleiderer P., Schaeffer M., Schleussner C.-F.
Publicado en: Earth System Dynamics, Edición Vol. 11, Edición 3, 2020, Página(s) Pages 697-708, ISSN 2190-4987
Editor: Copernicus Publications
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Effective Radiative Forcing in a GCM With Fixed Surface Temperatures

Autores: Andrews T., Smith C., J., Myhre G., Forster P.M., Chadwick R., Ackerley D.
Publicado en: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Edición Vol. 126, Edición 4, 2021, Página(s) Pages e2020JD033880, ISSN 2169-897X
Editor: Wiley
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Strong Cloud-Circulation Coupling Explains Weak Trade Cumulus Feedback

Autores: Vogel R., Albright A.L., Vial J., George G., Stevens B., Bony S.
Publicado en: Nature, Edición Vol. 612, Edición 7941, 2022, Página(s) Pages 696-700, ISSN 1476-4687
Editor: Springer Nature
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A Cloud-Controlling Factor Perspective on the Hemispheric Asymmetry of Extratropical Cloud Albedo

Autores: Blanco J.E., Caballero R., Datseris G., Stevens B., Bony S., Hadas O., Kaspi Y.
Publicado en: Journal of Climate, Edición Vol. 36, Edición 6, 2023, Página(s) Pages 1793-1804, ISSN 0894-8755
Editor: American Meteorological Society
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Carbon-Concentration and Carbon-Climate Feedbacks in CMIP6 Models and Their Comparison to CMIP5 Models

Autores: Arora V.K., Katavouta A., Williams R.G., Jones C.D., Brovkin V., Friedlingstein P., Schwinger J., Bopp L., Boucher O., Cadule P., Chamberlain M.A., Christian J.R., Delire C., Fisher R.A., Hajima T., Ilyina T., Joetzjer E., Kawamiya M., Koven C.D., Krasting J.P., Law R.M., Lawrence D.M., Lenton A., Lindsay K., Pongratz J., Raddatz T., Séférian R., Tachiiri K., Tjiputra J.F., Wiltshire A., Wu T.,
Publicado en: Biogeosciences, Edición Vol. 17, Edición 16, 2020, Página(s) Pages 4173-4222, ISSN 1726-4189
Editor: Copernicus Publications
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Cloud Transition Across the Daily Cycle Illuminates Model Responses of Trade Cumuli to Warming

Autores: Vial J., Albright A.L., Vogel R., Musat I., Bony S.
Publicado en: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Edición Vol. 120, Edición 8, 2023, Página(s) Pages e2209805120, ISSN 1091-6490
Editor: National Academy of Sciences
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The Role of Baroclinic Activity in Controlling Earth’s Albedo in the Present and Future Climates

Autores: Hadas O., Datseris G., Blanco J., Bony S., Caballero R., Stevens B., Kaspi Y.
Publicado en: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Edición Vol. 120, Edición 5, 2023, Página(s) Pages e2208778120, ISSN 1091-6490
Editor: National Academy of Sciences
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Making Climate Projections Conditional on Historical Observations

Autores: Ribes A., Qasmi S., Gillett N.P.
Publicado en: Science Advances, Edición Vol. 7, Edición 4, 2021, Página(s) Pages eabc0671, ISSN 2375-2548
Editor: American Association for the Advancement of Science
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An Underestimated Negative Cloud Feedback from Cloud Lifetime Changes

Autores: Mülmenstädt J., Salzmann M., Kay J.E., Zelinka M.D., P.-L., M., Nam C., Kretzschmar J., Hörnig S., Quaas J.
Publicado en: Nature Climate Change, Edición Vol. 11, Edición 6, 2021, Página(s) Pages 508-513, ISSN 1758-6798
Editor: Springer Nature
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Constraining Uncertainty in Aerosol Direct Forcing

Autores: Watson‐Parris D., Bellouin N., Deaconu L.T., Schutgens N.A.J., Yoshioka M., Regayre L.A., Pringle K.J., Johnson J.S., Smith C.J., Carslaw K.S., Stier P.
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición Vol. 47, Edición 9, 2020, Página(s) Pages e2020GL087141, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
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Robust Evidence for Reversal of the Trend in Aerosol Effective Climate Forcing

Autores: Quaas J., Jia H., Smith C., Albright A.L., Aas W., Bellouin N., Boucher O., Doutriaux-Boucher M., Forster P.M., Grosvenor D., Jenkins S., Klimont Z., Loeb N.G., Ma X., Naik V., Paulot F., Stier P., Wild M., Myhre G., Schulz M.
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Editor: Copernicus Publications
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The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII Climate Assessment of Mitigation Pathways: From Emissions to Global Temperatures

Autores: Kikstra J.S., Nicholls Z.R.J., Smith C.J., Lewis J., Lamboll R.D., Byers E., Sandstad M., Meinshausen M., Gidden M.J., Rogelj J., Kriegler E., Peters G.P., Fuglestvedt J.S., Skeie R.B., Samset B.H., Wienpahl L., van Vuuren D.P., van der Wijst K.I., Al Khourdajie A., Forster P.M., Reisinger A., Schaeffer R., Riahi K.
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Editor: Copernicus Publications
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Substantial Reductions in Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reductions Implied by IPCC Estimates of the Remaining Carbon Budget

Autores: Rogelj J., Lamboll R.D.
Publicado en: Communications Earth & Environment, Edición Vol. 5, Edición 1, 2024, Página(s) Pages 35, ISSN 2662-4435
Editor: Springer Nature
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Compatible Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions in the CMIP6 Earth System Models’ Historical and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Experiments of the Twenty-First Century

Autores: Spencer K., Liddicoat S.K., Wiltshire A.J., Jones C.D., Arora V.K., Brovkin V., Cadule P., Hajima T., Lawrence D.M., Pongratz J., Schwinger J., Séférian R., Tjiputra J.F., Ziehn T.
Publicado en: Journal of Climate, Edición Vol. 34, Edición 8, 2021, Página(s) Pages 2853-2875, ISSN 0894-8755
Editor: American Meteorological Society
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Minimal Recipes for Global Cloudiness

Autores: Datseris G., Blanco J., Hadas O., Bony S., Caballero R., Kaspi Y., Stevens B.
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición Vol. 49, Edición 20, 2022, Página(s) Pages e2022GL099678, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
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Stringent Mitigation Substantially Reduces Risk of Unprecedented Near-Term Warming Rates

Autores: McKenna C.M., Maycock A.C., Forster P.M., Smith C.J., Tokarska K.B.
Publicado en: Nature Climate Change, Edición Vol. 11, Edición 2, 2020, Página(s) Pages 126-131, ISSN 1758-6798
Editor: Springer Nature
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Future Summer Warming Pattern Under Climate Change is Affected by Lapse-Rate Changes

Autores: Brogli R., Lund Sørland S., Kröner N., Schär C.
Publicado en: Weather and Climate Dynamics, Edición Vol. 2, Edición 4, 2021, Página(s) Pages 1093-1110, ISSN 2698-4016
Editor: Copernicus Publications
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Low-Level Marine Tropical Clouds in Six CMIP6 Models Are Too Few, Too Bright but Also Too Compact and Too Homogeneous

Autores: Konsta D., Dufresne J.-L., Chepfer H., Vial J., Koshiro T., Kawai H., Bodas-Salcedo A., Roehrig R., Watanabe M., Ogura T.
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición Vol. 49, Edición 11, 2022, Página(s) Pages e2021GL097593, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
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Net Zero Targets in Science and Policy

Autores: Rogelj J.
Publicado en: Environmental Research Letters, Edición Vol. 18, Edición 2, 2023, Página(s) Pages 021003, ISSN 1748-9326
Editor: Institute of Physics Publishing
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A Sensitivity Study of Arctic Air-Mass Transformation Using Large Eddy Simulation

Autores: Dimitrelos A., Ekman A.M.L., Caballero R., Savre J.
Publicado en: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Edición Vol. 125, Edición 6, 2020, Página(s) Pages e2019JD031738, ISSN 2169-897X
Editor: Wiley
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Characterization and Evolution of Organized Shallow Convection in the Downstream North Atlantic Trades

Autores: Schulz H., Eastman R., Stevens B.
Publicado en: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Edición Vol. 126, Edición 17, 2021, Página(s) Pages e2021JD034575, ISSN 2169-897X
Editor: Wiley
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Enhanced Warming Constrained by Past Trends in Equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Gradient

Autores: Watanabe M., Dufresne J.-L., Kosaka Y., Mauritsen T., Tatebe H.
Publicado en: Nature Climate Change, Edición Vol. 11, Edición 1, 2020, Página(s) Pages 33-37, ISSN 1758-6798
Editor: Springer Nature
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Variations of Tropical Lapse Rates in Climate Models and Their Implications for Upper-Tropospheric Warming

Autores: Keil P., Schmidt H., Stevens B., Bao J.
Publicado en: Journal of Climate, Edición Vol. 34, Edición 24, 2021, Página(s) 9747-9761, ISSN 0894-8755
Editor: American Meteorological Society
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Cloud Botany: Shallow Cumulus Clouds in an Ensemble of Idealized Large-Domain Large-Eddy Simulations of the Trades

Autores: Jansson F., Janssens M., Grönqvist J.H., Siebesma A.P., Glassmeier F., Attema J., Azizi V., Satoh M., Sato Y., Schulz H., Kölling T.
Publicado en: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Edición Vol. 15, Edición 11, 2023, Página(s) Pages e2023MS003796, ISSN 1942-2466
Editor: American Geophysical Union
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A Drier Than Expected Future, Supported by Near-Surface Relative Humidity Observations

Autores: Douville H. and Willett K.M.
Publicado en: Science Advances, Edición Vol. 9, Edición 30, 2023, Página(s) eade6253, ISSN 2375-2548
Editor: American Association for the Advancement of Science
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Causes of the Weak Emergent Constraint on Climate Sensitivity at the Last Glacial Maximum

Autores: Renoult M., Sagoo N., Zhu J., Mauritsen T.
Publicado en: Climate of the Past, Edición Vol. 19, Edición 2, 2023, Página(s) Pages 323-356, ISSN 1814-9332
Editor: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/cp-19-323-2023

Emergent Constraints on Earth's Transient and Equilibrium Response to Doubled CO2 from Post-1970s Global Warming

Autores: Jiménez-de-la-Cuesta D., Mauritsen T.
Publicado en: Nature Geoscience, Edición Vol. 12, Edición 11, 2019, Página(s) Pages 902-905, ISSN 1752-0908
Editor: Springer Nature
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A New Perspective for Future Precipitation Change from Intense Extratropical Cyclones

Autores: Kodama C., Stevens B., Mauritsen T., Seiki T., Satoh M.
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición Vol. 46, Edición 21, 2019, Página(s) Pages 12435-12444, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
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CERESMIP: A Climate Modeling Protocol to Investigate Recent Trends in the Earth's Energy Imbalance

Autores: Schmidt G.A., Andrews T., Bauer S.E., Durack P.J., Loeb N.G., Ramaswamy V., Arnold N.P., Bosilovich M.G., Cole J., Horowitz L.W., Johnson G.C., Lyman J.M., Medeiros B., Michibata T., Olonscheck D., Paynter D., Raghuraman S.P., Schulz M., Takasuka D., Tallapragada V., Taylor P.C., Ziehn T.
Publicado en: Frontiers in Climate, Edición 5, 2023, ISSN 2624-9553
Editor: Frontiers Media SA
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Sensitivity of Bias Adjustment Methods to Low-Frequency Internal Climate Variability Over the Reference Period: An Ideal Model Study

Autores: Bonnet R., Boucher O., Vrac M., Jin X.
Publicado en: Environmental Research: Climate, Edición Vol. 1, Edición 1, 2022, Página(s) Pages 011001, ISSN 2752-5295
Editor: Elsevier
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Suppressed Late‐20th Century Warming in CMIP6 Models Explained by Forcing and Feedbacks

Autores: Smith C.J., Forster P.M.
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición Vol. 48, Edición 19, 2021, Página(s) Pages e2021GL094948, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
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Inequalities in Air Pollution Exposure and Attributable Mortality in a Low Carbon Future

Autores: Reddington C.L., Turnock S.T., Conibear L., Forster P.M., Lowe J.A., Ford L.B., Weaver C., van Bavel B., Dong H., Alizadeh M.R., Arnold S.R.
Publicado en: Earth's Future, Edición Vol. 11, Edición 12, 2023, Página(s) Pages e2023EF003697, ISSN 2328-4277
Editor: Wiley
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Changes in IPCC Scenario Assessment Emulators Between SR1.5 and AR6 Unraveled

Autores: Nicholls Z., Meinshausen M., Lewis J., Smith C.J., Forster P.M., Fuglestvedt J.S., Rogelj J., Kikstra J.S., Riahi K., Byers E.
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición Vol. 49, Edición 20, 2022, Página(s) Pages e2022GL099788, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
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Past and Future Response of the North Atlantic Warming Hole to Anthropogenic Forcing

Autores: Qasmi S.
Publicado en: Earth System Dynamics, Edición Vol. 14, Edición 3, 2023, Página(s) 685-695, ISSN 2190-4987
Editor: Copernicus Publications
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Errors in Simple Climate Model Emulations of Past and Future Global Temperature Change

Autores: Jackson L.S., Maycock A.C., Andrews T., Fredriksen H.-B., Smith C.J., Forster P.M.
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición Vol. 49, Edición 15, 2022, Página(s) Pages e2022GL098808, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
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Tropospheric Ozone Radiative Forcing Uncertainty Due to Pre-Industrial Fire and Biogenic Emissions

Autores: Rowlinson M.J., Rap A., Hamilton D.S., Pope R.J., Hantson S., Arnold S.R., Kaplan J.O., Arneth A., Chipperfield M.P., Forster P.M., Nieradzik L.
Publicado en: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Edición Vol. 20, Edición 18, 2020, Página(s) 10937-10951, ISSN 1680-7324
Editor: Copernicus Publications
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Reply to Comment on 'Unintentional Unfairness When Applying New Greenhouse Gas Emissions Metrics at Country Level'

Autores: Rogelj J., Schleussner C.-F.
Publicado en: Environmental Research Letters, Edición Vol. 16, Edición 6, 2021, Página(s) 068002, ISSN 1748-9326
Editor: Institute of Physics Publishing
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Opportunities and Challenges in Using Remaining Carbon Budgets to Guide Climate Policy

Autores: Matthews H.D., Tokarska K.B., Nicholls Z.R.J., Rogelj J., Canadell J.G., Friedlingstein P., Frölicher T.L., Forster P.M., Gillett N.P., Ilyina T., Jackson R.B., Jones C.D., Koven C., Knutti R., MacDougall A.H., Meinshausen M., Mengis N., Séférian R., Zickfeld K.
Publicado en: Nature Geoscience, Edición Vol. 13, Edición 12, 2020, Página(s) Pages 769-779, ISSN 1752-0908
Editor: Springer Nature
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Better-Constrained Climate Sensitivity When Accounting for Dataset Dependency on Pattern Effect Estimates

Autores: Modak A., Mauritsen T.
Publicado en: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Edición Vol. 23, Edición 13, 2023, Página(s) Pages 7535-7549, ISSN 1680-7324
Editor: Copernicus Publications
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An Assessment of Earth's Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence

Autores: Sherwood S.C., Webb M.J., Annan J.D., Armour K.C., Forster P.M., Hargreaves J.C., Hegerl G., Klein S.A., Marvel K.D., Rohling E.J., Watanabe M., Andrews T., Braconnot, P., Bretherton C.S., Foster G.L., Hausfather Z., Heydt A.S., Knutti R., Mauritsen T., Norris J.R., Proistosescu C., Rugenstein M.,Schmidt G.A.,Tokarska K.B., Zelinka M.D.
Publicado en: Reviews of Geophysics, Edición Vol. 58, Edición 4, 2020, Página(s) Pages e2019RG000678, ISSN 8755-1209
Editor: American Geophysical Union
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Effective Radiative Forcing from Emissions of Reactive Gases and Aerosols – A Multi-Model Comparison

Autores: Thornhill G.D., Collins W.J., Kramer R.J., Olivié D., Skeie R.B., O'Connor F.M., Abraham N.L., Checa-Garcia R., Bauer S.E., Deushi M., Emmons L.K., Forster P.M., Horowitz L.W., Johnson B., Keeble J., Lamarque J.-F., Michou M., Mills M.J., Mulcahy J.P., Myhre G., Nabat P., Naik V., Oshima N., Schulz M., Smith C.J., Takemura T., Tilmes S., Wu T., Zeng G., Zhang J.
Publicado en: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Edición Vol. 21, Edición 2, 2021, Página(s) Pages 853-874, ISSN 1680-7324
Editor: Copernicus Publications
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Efficacy of Climate Forcings in PDRMIP Models

Autores: Richardson T.B., Forster P.M., Smith C.J., Maycock A.C., Wood T., Andrews T., Boucher O., Faluvegi G., Fläschner D., Hodnebrog Ø., Kasoar M., Kirkevåg A., Lamarque J.-F., Mülmenstädt J., Myhre G., Olivié D., Portmann R.W., Samset B.H., Shawki D., Shindell D., Stier P., Takemura T., Voulgarakis A., Watson‐Parris D.
Publicado en: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Edición Vol. 124, Edición 23, 2019, Página(s) Pages 12824-12844, ISSN 2169-897X
Editor: Wiley
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Stronger Response to the Aerosol Indirect Effect due to Cooling in Remote Regions

Autores: Huusko L., Modak A., Mauritsen T.
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición Vol. 49, Edición 21, 2022, Página(s) Pages e2022GL101184, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
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Assessing Precipitation Over the Amazon Basin as Simulated by a Storm-Resolving Model

Autores: Paccini L., Stevens B.
Publicado en: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Edición Vol. 128, Edición 4, 2023, Página(s) e2022JD037436, ISSN 2169-897X
Editor: Wiley
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Temperature-Dependence of the Clear-Sky Feedback in Radiative-Convective Equilibrium

Autores: Kluft L., Dacie S., Brath M., Buehler S.A., Stevens B.
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición Vol. 48, Edición 22, 2021, Página(s) e2021GL094649, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
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Northern Hemisphere Cold Air Outbreaks Are More Likely to be Severe During Weak Polar Vortex Conditions

Autores: Huang J., Hitchcock P., Maycock A.C., McKenna C.M., Tian W.
Publicado en: Communications Earth & Environment, Edición Vol. 2, Edición 1, 2021, Página(s) 147, ISSN 2662-4435
Editor: Springer Nature
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The HadGEM3-GA7.1 Radiative Kernel: The Importance of a Well-Resolved Stratosphere

Autores: Smith C.J., Kramer R.J., Sima A.
Publicado en: Earth System Science Data, Edición Vol. 12, Edición 3, 2020, Página(s) Pages 2157-2168, ISSN 1866-3516
Editor: Copernicus Publications
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How the Glasgow Declaration on Forests Can Help Keep Alive the 1.5 °C Target

Autores: Gasser T., Ciais P., Lewis S.L.
Publicado en: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Edición Vol. 119, Edición 23, 2022, Página(s) Pages e2200519119, ISSN 1091-6490
Editor: National Academy of Sciences
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Role of Sea Surface Temperature Patterns for the Southern Hemisphere Jet Stream Response to CO2 Forcing

Autores: Wood T., McKenna C.M., Chrysanthou A., Maycock A.C.
Publicado en: Environmental Research Letters, Edición Vol. 16, Edición 1, 2020, Página(s) Pages 014020, ISSN 1748-9326
Editor: Institute of Physics Publishing
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The Contributions of Individual Countries and Regions to the Global Radiative Forcing

Autores: Fu B., Li B., Gasser T., Tao S., Ciais P., Piao S., Balkanski Y., Li W., Yin T., Han L., Han Y., Peng S., Xu J.
Publicado en: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Edición Vol. 118, Edición 15, 2020, Página(s) e2018211118, ISSN 1091-6490
Editor: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
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Wave of Net Zero Emission Targets Opens Window to Meeting the Paris Agreement

Autores: Höhne N., Gidden M.J., den Elzen M., Hans F., Fyson C., Geiges A., Jeffery M.L., Gonzales-Zuñiga S., Mooldijk S., Hare W., Rogelj J.
Publicado en: Nature Climate Change, Edición Vol. 11, Edición 10, 2021, Página(s) Pages 820-822, ISSN 1758-6798
Editor: Springer Nature
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Current and Future Global Climate Impacts Resulting from COVID-19

Autores: Forster P.M., Forster H.I., Evans M.J., Gidden M.J., Jones C.D., Keller C.A., Lamboll R.D., Le Quéré C., Rogelj J., Rosen D., Schleussner C.-F., Richardson T.B., Smith C.J., Turnock S.T.
Publicado en: Nature Climate Change, Edición Vol. 10, Edición 10, 2020, Página(s) Pages 913-919, ISSN 1758-6798
Editor: Springer Nature
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Quantification of Chaotic Intrinsic Variability of Sea‐Air CO2 Fluxes at Interannual Timescales

Autores: Gehlen M., Berthet S., Séférian R., Ethé Ch., Penduff T.
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición Vol. 47, Edición 22, 2020, Página(s) Pages e2020GL088304, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
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Assessing Carbon Cycle Projections from Complex and Simple Models Under SSP Scenarios

Autores: Melnikova I., Ciais P., Boucher O., Tanaka K.
Publicado en: Climate Change, Edición Vol. 176, Edición 12, 2023, Página(s) Pages 168, ISSN 1573-1480
Editor: Springer Publishing
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An Updated Assessment of Past and Future Warming Over France Based on a Regional Observational Constraint

Autores: Ribes A., Boé J., Qasmi S., Dubuisson B., Douville H., Terray L.
Publicado en: Earth System Dynamics, Edición Vol. 13, Edición 4, 2022, Página(s) Pages 1397-1415, ISSN 2190-4987
Editor: Copernicus Publications
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Energy Budget Constraints on the Time History of Aerosol Forcing and Climate Sensitivity

Autores: Smith C.J., Harris G.R., Palmer M.D., Bellouin N., Collins W., Myhre G., Schulz M., Golaz J.-C., Ringer M., Storelvmo T., Forster P.M.
Publicado en: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Edición Vol. 126, Edición 13, 2021, Página(s) Pages e2020JD033622, ISSN 2169-897X
Editor: Wiley
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Climate Warming Mitigation from Nationally Determined Contributions

Autores: Fu B., Li J., Gasser T., Ciais P., Piao S., Tao S., Shen G., Lai Y., Han L., Li B.
Publicado en: Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Edición Vol. 39, Edición 8, 2022, Página(s) Pages 1217-1228, ISSN 1861-9533
Editor: Springer Science+Business Media
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Observational Evidence of Increasing Global Radiative Forcing

Autores: Kramer R.J., He H., Soden B.J., Oreopoulos L., Myhre G., Forster P.M., Smith C.J.
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters or American Geophysical Union (AGU), Edición Vol. 48, Edición 7, 2021, Página(s) Pages e2020GL091585, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
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Is There Warming in the Pipeline? A Multi-Model Analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO2

Autores: MacDougall A.H., Frölicher T.L., Jones C.D., Rogelj J., Matthews H.D., Zickfeld K., Arora V.K., Barrett N.J., Brovkin V., Burger F.A., Eby M., Eliseev A.V., Hajima T., Holden P.B., Jeltsch-Thömmes A., Koven C., Mengis N., Menviel L., Michou M., Mokhov I.I., Oka A., Schwinger J., Séférian R., Shaffer G., Sokolov A., Tachiiri K., Tjiputra J., Wiltshire A., Ziehn T.
Publicado en: Biogeosciences, Edición Vol. 17, Edición 11, 2020, Página(s) Pages 2987-3016, ISSN 1726-4189
Editor: Copernicus Publications
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The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) contribution to C4MIP: quantifying committed climate changes following zero carbon emissions

Autores: Jones C.D., Frölicher T.L., Koven C., MacDougall A.H., Matthews H.D., Zickfeld K., Rogelj J., Tokarska K.B., Gillett N.P., Ilyina T., Meinshausen M., Mengis N., Séférian R., Eby M., Burger F.A.
Publicado en: Geoscientific Model Development, Edición Vol. 12, Edición 10, 2019, Página(s) Pages 4375-4385, ISSN 1991-9603
Editor: Copernicus Publications
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Large-Scale Emergence of Regional Changes in Year-to-Year Temperature Variability by the End of the 21st Century

Autores: Olonscheck D., Schurer A.P., Lücke L., Hegerl G.C.
Publicado en: Nature Communications, Edición Vol. 12, Edición 1, 2021, Página(s) Pages 7237, ISSN 2041-1723
Editor: Nature Publishing Group
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Uncertainty in Near-Term Temperature Evolution Must Not Obscure Assessments of Climate Mitigation Benefits

Autores: Lanson A., Pfleiderer P., Lehner F., Schleussner C.-F.
Publicado en: Nature Communications, Edición Vol. 13, Edición 1, 2020, Página(s) Pages 4029, ISSN 2041-1723
Editor: Nature Publishing Group
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Reconciling Conflicting Accounts of Local Radiative Feedbacks in Climate Models

Autores: Hedemann C., Mauritsen T., Jungclaus J., Marotzke J.
Publicado en: Journal of Climate, Edición Vol. 35, Edición 10, 2022, Página(s) Pages 3131-3146, ISSN 0894-8755
Editor: American Meteorological Society
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New Generation of Climate Models Track Recent Unprecedented Changes in Earth's Radiation Budget Observed by CERES

Autores: Loeb N.G., Wang H., Allan R.P., Andrews T., Armour K., Cole J.N.S., Dufresne J.-L., Forster P., Gettelman A., Guo H., Mauritsen T., Ming Y., Paynter D., Proistosescu C., Stuecker M.F., Willén U., Wyser K.
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición Vol. 47, Edición 5, 2020, Página(s) e2019GL086705, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
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Non-Precipitating Shallow Cumulus Convection is Intrinsically Unstable to Length-Scale Growth

Autores: Janssens M., de Arellano J.V.-G., van Heerwaarden C.C., de Roode S.R., Siebesma A.P., Glassmeier F.
Publicado en: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Edición Vol. 80, Edición 3, 2023, Página(s) Pages 849-870, ISSN 0022-4928
Editor: American Meteorological Society
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Uncertainty in Carbon Budget Estimates Due to Internal Climate Variability

Autores: Tokarska K.B., Arora V.K., Gillett N.P., Lehner F., Rogelj J., Schleussner C.-F., Séférian R., Knutti R.
Publicado en: Environmental Research Letters, Edición Vol. 15, Edición 10, 2020, Página(s) Pages 104064, ISSN 1748-9326
Editor: Institute of Physics Publishing
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Indicators of Global Climate Change 2022: Annual Update of Large-Scale Indicators of the State of the Climate System and Human Influence

Autores: Forster P.M., Smith C.J., Walsh T., Lamb W.F., Lamboll R., Hauser M., Ribes A., Rosen D., Gillett N., Palmer M.D., Rogelj J., von Schuckmann K., Seneviratne S.I., Trewin B., Zhang X., Allen M., Andrew R., Birt A., Borger A., Boyer T., Broersma J.A., Cheng L., Dentener F., Friedlingstein P., Gutiérrez J.M., Gütschow J., Hall B., Ishii M., Jenkins S., Lan X., Lee J.Y., Morice C., Kadow C., Kennedy
Publicado en: Earth System Science Data, Edición Vol. 15, Edición 6, 2023, Página(s) 2295-2327, ISSN 1866-3516
Editor: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023

The Effect of Convective Injection of Ice on Stratospheric Water Vapor in a Changing Climate

Autores: Smith J.W., Bushell A.C., Butchart N., Haynes P.H., Maycock A.C.
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición Vol. 49, Edición 9, 2022, Página(s) e2021GL097386, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2021gl097386

How Large Does a Large Ensemble Need to Be?

Autores: Milinski S., Maher N., Olonscheck D.
Publicado en: Earth System Dynamics, Edición Vol. 11, Edición 4, 2020, Página(s) Pages 885-901, ISSN 2190-4987
Editor: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-885-2020

Historical Ocean Heat Uptake in Two Pairs of CMIP6 Models: Global and Regional Perspectives

Autores: Kuhlbrodt T., Voldoire A., Palmer M.D., Geoffroy O., Killick R.E.
Publicado en: Journal of Climate, Edición Vol. 36, Edición 7, 2023, Página(s) Pages 2183-2203, ISSN 0894-8755
Editor: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0468.1

Observational Evidence for a Stability Iris Effect in the Tropics

Autores: Saint‐Lu M., Bony S., Dufresne J.-L.
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición Vol. 47, Edición 14, 2020, Página(s) Pages e2020GL089059, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl089059

Shallow Cumulus Cloud Feedback in Large Eddy Simulations – Bridging the Gap to Storm-Resolving Models

Autores: Radtke J., Mauritsen T., Hohenegger C.
Publicado en: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Edición Vol. 21, Edición 5, 2021, Página(s) Pages 3275-3288, ISSN 1680-7324
Editor: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/acp-21-3275-2021

An Integrated Approach to Quantifying Uncertainties in the Remaining Carbon Budget

Autores: Matthews H.D., Tokarska K.B., Rogelj J., Smith C.J., MacDougall A.H., Haustein K., Mengis N., Sippel S., Forster P.M., Knutti R.
Publicado en: Communications Earth & Environment, Edición Vol. 2, Edición 1, 2021, Página(s) Pages 7, ISSN 2662-4435
Editor: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-020-00064-9

Negligible Unforced Historical Pattern Effect on Climate Feedback Strength Found in HadISST-Based AMIP Simulations

Autores: Lewis N., Mauritsen T.
Publicado en: Journal of Climate, Edición Vol. 34, Edición 1, 2020, Página(s) Pages 39-55, ISSN 0894-8755
Editor: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-0941.1

The New Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble With CMIP6 Forcing and High-Frequency Model Output

Autores: Olonscheck D., Suarez-Gutierrez L., Milinski S., Beobide-Arsuaga G., Baehr J., Fröb F., Ilyina T., Kadow C., Krieger D., Li H., Marotzke J., Plésiat É., Schupfner M., Wachsmann F., Wallberg L., Wieners K.-H., Brune S.
Publicado en: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Edición Vol. 15, Edición 10, 2023, Página(s) e2023MS003790, ISSN 1942-2466
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2023ms003790

Institutional Decarbonization Scenarios Evaluated Against the Paris Agreement 1.5 °C Goal

Autores: Brecha R.J., Ganti G., Lamboll R.D., Nicholls Z., Hare B., Lewis J., Meinshausen M., Schaeffer M., Smith C.J., Gidden M.J.
Publicado en: Nature Communications, Edición Vol. 13, Edición 1, 2022, Página(s) Pages 4304, ISSN 2041-1723
Editor: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-31734-1

Guidance on Emissions Metrics for Nationally Determined Contributions Under the Paris Agreement

Autores: Denison S., Forster P.M., Smith C.J.
Publicado en: Environmental Research Letters, Edición Vol. 14, Edición 12, 2019, Página(s) 124002, ISSN 1748-9326
Editor: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab4df4

Understanding Pattern Scaling Errors Across a Range of Emissions Pathways

Autores: Wells C.D., Jackson L.S., Maycock A.C., Forster P.M.
Publicado en: Earth System Dynamics, Edición Vol. 14, Edición 4, 2023, Página(s) Pages 817-834, ISSN 2190-4987
Editor: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/esd-14-817-2023

A Comprehensive and Synthetic Dataset for Global, Regional, and National Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector 1970–2018 with an Extension to 2019

Autores: Minx J.C., Lamb W.F., Andrew R.M., Canadell J.G., Crippa M., Döbbeling N., Forster P.M., Guizzardi D., Olivier J., Peters G.P., Pongratz J., Reisinger A., Rigby M., Saunois M., Smith, S.J., Solazzo E.,Tian H
Publicado en: Earth System Science Data, Edición Vol. 13, Edición 11, 2021, Página(s) Pages 5213-5252, ISSN 1866-3516
Editor: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/essd-13-5213-2021

The Impact of Stratospheric Aerosol Intervention on the North Atlantic and Quasi-Biennial Oscillations in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G6sulfur Experiment

Autores: Jones A., Haywood J.M., Scaife A.A., Boucher O., Henry M., Kravitz B., Lurton T., Nabat P., Niemeier U., Séférian R., Tilmes S., Visioni D.
Publicado en: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Edición Vol. 22, Edición 5, 2022, Página(s) Pages 2999-3016, ISSN 1680-7324
Editor: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/acp-22-2999-2022

Uncompensated Claims to Fair Emission Space Risk Putting Paris Agreement Goals Out of Reach

Autores: Ganti G., Gidden M.J., Smith C.J., Fyson C., Nauels A., Riahi K., Schleussner C.-F.
Publicado en: Environmental Research Letters, Edición Vol. 18, Edición 2, 2023, Página(s) Pages 024040, ISSN 1748-9326
Editor: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acb502

Energy Budget Constraints on Historical Radiative Forcing

Autores: Andrews T., Forster P.M.
Publicado en: Nature Climate Change, Edición Vol. 10, Edición 4, 2020, Página(s) Pages 313-316, ISSN 1758-6798
Editor: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0696-1

Sensitivity of Tropical Extreme Precipitation to Surface Warming in Aquaplanet Experiments Using a Global Nonhydrostatic Model

Autores: Uribe A., Vial J., Mauritsen T.
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición Vol. 48, Edición 9, 2021, Página(s) Pages e2020GL091371, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091371

Climate Change Response of Tropical Atlantic Clouds in a Kilometer-Resolution Model

Autores: Heim C., Schär C.
Publicado en: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Edición Vol. 129, Edición 1, 2023, Página(s) Pages e2023JD038947, ISSN 2169-897X
Editor: Wiley
DOI: 10.1029/2023jd038947

The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions Due to COVID‐19: Initial Results From CovidMIP

Autores: Jones C.D., Hickman J.E., Rumbold S.T., Walton J., Lamboll R.D., Skeie R.B., Fiedler S., Forster P.M., Rogelj J., Abe M., Botzet M., Calvin K., Cassou C., Cole J.N.S., Davini P., Deushi M., Dix M., Fyfe J.C., Gillett N.P., Ilyina T., Kawamiya M., Kelley M., Kharin S., Koshiro T., Li H., Mackallah C., Müller W.A., Nabat P., van Noije T., Nolan P., Ohgaito R., Olivié D., Oshima N., Parodi J., Reer
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición Vol. 48, Edición 8, 2021, Página(s) Pages e2020GL091883, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091883

Inconsistencies When Applying Novel Metrics for Emissions Accounting to the Paris Agreement

Autores: Schleussner C.-F., Nauels A., Schaeffer M., Hare W., Rogelj J.
Publicado en: Environmental Research Letters, Edición Vol. 14, Edición 12, 2019, Página(s) Pages 124055, ISSN 1748-9326
Editor: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab56e7

Early Development and Tuning of a Global Coupled Cloud Resolving Model, and its Fast Response to Increasing CO2

Autores: Mauritsen T., Redler R., Esch M., Stevens B., Hohenegger C., Klocke D., Brokopf R., Haak H., Linardakis L., Röber N., Schnur R.
Publicado en: Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, Edición Vol. 74, Edición 1, 2022, Página(s) Pages 346–363, ISSN 1600-0870
Editor: Taylor and Francis Ltd.
DOI: 10.16993/tellusa.54

Increased Risk of Near Term Global Warming due to a Recent AMOC Weakening

Autores: Bonnet R., Swingedouw D., Gastineau G., Boucher O., Deshayes J., Hourdin F., Mignot J., Servonnat J., Sima A.
Publicado en: Nature Communications, Edición Vol. 12, Edición 1, 2021, Página(s) Pages 6108, ISSN 2041-1723
Editor: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-26370-0

Carbon Cycle Response to Temperature Overshoot Beyond 2°C: An Analysis of CMIP6 Models

Autores: Melnikova I., Boucher O., Cadule P., Ciais P., Gasser T., Quilcaille Y., Shiogama H., Tachiiri K., Yokohata T., Tanaka K.
Publicado en: Earth's Future, Edición Vol. 9, Edición 5, 2021, Página(s) Pages e2020EF001967, ISSN 2328-4277
Editor: Wiley
DOI: 10.1029/2020ef001967

A Bayesian Framework for Emergent Constraints: Case Studies of Climate Sensitivity With PMIP

Autores: Renoult M., Annan J.D., Hargreaves J.C., Sagoo N., Flynn C., Kapsch M.-L., Li Q., Lohmann G., Mikolajewicz U., Ohgaito R., Shi X., Zhang Q., Mauritsen T.
Publicado en: Climate of the Past, Edición Vol. 16, Edición 5, 2020, Página(s) Pages 1715-1735, ISSN 1814-9332
Editor: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/cp-16-1715-2020

On the Effect of Historical SST Patterns on Radiative Feedback

Autores: Andrews T., Bodas-Salcedo A., Gregory J.M., Dong Y., Armour K.C., Paynter D., Lin P., Modak A., Mauritsen T., Cole J.N.S., Medeiros B., Benedict J.J., Douville H., Roehrig R., Koshiro T., Kawai H., Ogura T., Dufresne J.-L., Allan R.P., Liu C.
Publicado en: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Edición Vol. 127, Edición 18, 2022, Página(s) Pages e2022JD036675, ISSN 2169-897X
Editor: Wiley
DOI: 10.1029/2022jd036675

Historical Total Ozone Radiative Forcing Derived from CMIP6 Simulations

Autores: Skeie R.B., Myhre G., Hodnebrog Ø., Cameron-Smith P.J., Deushi M., Hegglin M.I., Horowitz L.W., Kramer R.J., Michou M., Mills M.J., Olivié D.J.L., O'Connor F.M., Paynter D., Samset B.H., Sellar A., Shindell D., Takemura T., Tilmes S., Wu T.
Publicado en: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Edición Vol. 3, Edición 1, 2020, Página(s) Pages 32, ISSN 2397-3722
Editor: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-020-00131-0

Connecting the SST Pattern Problem and the Hot Model Problem

Autores: Rugenstein M., Dhame S., Olonscheck D., Wills R.J., Watanabe M., Seager R.
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición Vol. 50, Edición 22, 2023, Página(s) Pages e2023GL105488, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2023gl105488

The Effect of Anthropogenic Aerosols on the Aleutian Low

Autores: Dow W.J., Maycock A., Lofverstrom M., Smith C.J.
Publicado en: Journal of Climate, Edición Vol. 34, Edición 5, 2021, Página(s) Pages 1725-1741, ISSN 0894-8755
Editor: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0423.1

Eddy Activity Response to Global Warming-Like Temperature Changes

Autores: Yuval J., Kaspi Y.
Publicado en: Journal of Climate, Edición Vol. 33, Edición 4, 2020, Página(s) Pages 1381-1404, ISSN 0894-8755
Editor: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-0190.1

The Deployment Length of Solar Radiation Modification: An Interplay of Mitigation, Net-negative Emissions and Climate Uncertainty

Autores: Baur S., Nauels A., Nicholls Z., Sanderson B.M., Schleussner C.-F.`
Publicado en: Earth System Dynamics, Edición Vol. 14, Edición 2, 2023, Página(s) Pages 367-381, ISSN 2190-4987
Editor: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/esd-14-367-2023

Cloud Patterns in the Trades Have Four Interpretable Dimensions

Autores: Janssens M., Vilà-Guerau de Arellano J., Scheffer M., Antonissen C., Siebesma P.A., Glassmeier F.
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición Vol. 48, Edición 5, 2021, Página(s) Pages e2020GL091001, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091001

Impact of Holuhraun Volcano Aerosols on Clouds in Cloud-System-Resolving Simulations

Autores: Haghighatnasab M., Kretzschmar J., Block K., Quaas J.
Publicado en: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Edición Vol. 22, Edición 13, 2022, Página(s) Pages 8457-8472, ISSN 1680-7324
Editor: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/acp-22-8457-2022

Climate-Driven Chemistry and Aerosol Feedbacks in CMIP6 Earth System Models

Autores: Thornhill G., Collins W., Olivié D., Skeie R.B., Archibald A., Bauer S., Checa-Garcia R., Fiedler S., Folberth G., Gjermundsen A., Horowitz L., Lamarque J.-F., Michou M., Mulcahy J., Nabat P., Naik V., O'Connor F.M., Paulot F., Schulz M., Scott C.E., Séférian R., Smith C., Takemura T., Tilmes S., Tsigaridis K., Weber J.
Publicado en: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Edición Vol. 21, Edición 2, 2021, Página(s) Pages 1105-1126, ISSN 1680-7324
Editor: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/acp-21-1105-2021

Global Warming at Near-Constant Tropospheric Relative Humidity is Supported by Observations

Autores: Douville H., Qasmi S., Ribes A., Bock O.
Publicado en: Communications Earth & Environment, Edición Vol. 3, Edición 1, 2022, Página(s) Pages 237, ISSN 2662-4435
Editor: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-022-00561-z

The Time Scale of Shallow Convective Self-Aggregation in Large-Eddy Simulations Is Sensitive to Numerics

Autores: Janssens M., Vilà-Guerau de Arellano J., van Heerwaarden C.C., van Stratum B.J.H., de Roode S.R., Siebesma A.P., Glassmeier F.
Publicado en: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Edición Vol. 15, Edición 1, 2022, Página(s) Pages e2022MS003292, ISSN 1942-2466
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2022ms003292

Past Warming Trend Constrains Future Warming in CMIP6 Models

Autores: Tokarska K.B., Stolpe M.B., Sippel S., Fischer E.M., Smith C.J., Lehner F., Knutti R.
Publicado en: Science Advances, Edición Vol. 6, Edición 12, 2020, Página(s) Pages eaaz9549, ISSN 2375-2548
Editor: American Association for the Advancement of Science
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aaz9549

Changes in Poleward Atmospheric Energy Transport Over a Wide Range of Climates: Energetic and Diffusive Perspectives and A Priori Theories

Autores: Merlis T.M., Feldl N., Caballero R.
Publicado en: Journal of Climate, Edición Vol. 35, Edición 20, 2022, Página(s) Pages 2933-2948, ISSN 0894-8755
Editor: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0682.1

Sugar, Gravel, Fish, and Flowers: Dependence of Mesoscale Patterns of Trade‐Wind Clouds on Environmental Conditions

Autores: Bony S., Schulz H., Vial J., Stevens B.
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición Vol. 47, Edición 7, 2020, Página(s) e2019GL085988, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2019gl085988

Dependence of Climate Sensitivity on the Given Distribution of Relative Humidity

Autores: Bourdin S., Kluft L., Stevens B.
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición Vol. 48, Edición 8, 2021, Página(s) Pages e2021GL092462, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2021gl092462

On the Climate Sensitivity and Historical Warming Evolution in Recent Coupled Model Ensembles

Autores: Flynn C.M., Mauritsen T.
Publicado en: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Edición Vol. 20, Edición 13, 2020, Página(s) Pages 7829-7842, ISSN 1680-7324
Editor: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/acp-20-7829-2020

Tuning the MPI-ESM1.2 Global Climate Model to Improve the Match With Instrumental Record Warming by Lowering Its Climate Sensitivity

Autores: Mauritsen T., Roeckner E.
Publicado en: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Edición Vol. 12, Edición 5, 2020, Página(s) Pages e2019MS002037, ISSN 1942-2466
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2019ms002037

Responsibility of Major Emitters for Country-Level Warming and Extreme Hot Years

Autores: Beusch L., Nauels A., Gudmundsson L., Gütschow J., Schleussner C.-F., Seneviratne S.I.
Publicado en: Communications Earth & Environment, Edición Vol. 3, Edición 1, 2022, Página(s) Pages 7, ISSN 2662-4435
Editor: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-021-00320-6

Trade Wind Boundary Layer Turbulence and Shallow Precipitating Convection: New Insights Combining SAR Images, Satellite Brightness Temperature, and Airborne In Situ Measurements

Autores: Brilouet P.-E., Bouniol D., Couvreux F., Ayet A., Granero-Belinchon C., Lothon M., Mouche A.
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición Vol. 50, Edición 2, 2022, Página(s) Pages e2022GL102180, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2022gl102180

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