Constraining uncertainty of multi decadal climate projections

Rezultaty

D5.1 (M16, IMPERIAL, CLIMATE ANALYTICS): Emission pathway tool published online (Task 5.1.1).

Short report on main outcomes and participating organisations of the workshop on aerosol-cloud interactions

D1.2 (M24, Met Office, ULEI): Short report on main outcomes and participating organisations of the workshop on aerosol-cloud interactions from models vs. observations after volcanic eruptions and other constraints for aerosol-cloud interactions. Participants of this two day workshop will include 7 CONSTRAIN scientists and 2 international participants (for whom costs will be covered by the programme) and up to 9 other participants (who will be expected to cover their own travel, accommodation and subsistence costs) (Tasks 1.1.2 and 1.1.4).

Short report on main outcomes and participating organisations of the workshop on understanding of rapid adjustment processes

D1.5 (M36, UNIVLEEDS, ULEI, CICERO): Short report on main outcomes of the workshop on understanding rapid adjustment processes: participating organisations: representatives from the H2020 FORCES project, ECMWF CAMS aerosol and radiative forcing projects, and 1-2 non-EU key laboratories. Participants of this two day workshop will include 7 CONSTRAIN scientists and 2 international participants (for whom costs will be covered by the programme) and up to 9 other participants (who will be expected to cover their own travel, accommodation and subsistence costs) (Tasks 1.2.1, 1.2.2 and 1.2.3).

Short report on main outcomes and participating organisations of the workshop on frameworks for characterizing mesoscale organisation of shallow convection

D2.2 (M12, TU DELFT, CNRS, MPG, ETH, METEO-FRANCE): Short report on main outcomes and participating organisations of the workshop on frameworks for characterizing mesoscale organisation of shallow convection from observations and assessing their role for cloud feedbacks using a hierarchy of models. Participants of this two day workshop will include 12 CONSTRAIN scientists and 3 international participants (for whom costs will be covered by the programme) and up to 15 other participants (who will be expected to cover their own travel, accommodation and subsistence costs) (Task 2.2.2.1).

Online GitHub Code documenting the improvements made to the emulators regarding their use of climate patterns for climate impact (FAIR) and feedbacks (OSCAR) studies

D4.10 (M30, CNRS, IASA, UNIVLEEDS): Online GitHub code of the emulators with improvements made regarding their use of climate patterns for climate impact (FAIR) and feedbacks (OSCAR) studies (Task 4.3.1).

End-of-project KGSIR on the improved physical understanding and quantification of tropical low-cloud feedbacks

D2.4 (M48, CNRS, MPG, TU DELFT): End-of-project KGSIR on the improved physical understanding and quantification of tropical low-cloud feedbacks (Task 2.2 and 2.3 and all related subtasks), and their implications for WP-4 by revisiting the plausible range of climate sensitivity estimates in the light of new observational constraints.

End-of-Project KGSIR on interaction of ocean heat uptake and radiative feedback change via SST-pattern change

D3.2 (M42, MET OFFICE, STOCKHOLM, MPG): End-of-Project KGSIR on interaction of ocean heat uptake and radiative feedback change via SST-pattern change. Quantifying the likelihood of future periods, which are similar to the last 30 years (strong ocean heat uptake combined with negative feedback parameter) (Tasks 3.1.2, 3.1.3).

Annual CONSTRAIN report 3 on adaptation and mitigation choices

D58 M30 CLIMATE ANALYTICS Annual CONSTRAIN report 3 on adaptation and mitigation choices launched at annual December side event at UNFCCC COP Task 521

End-of-project KGSIR on ERF developments

D1.3 (M48, CICERO, UNIVLEEDS, ULEI): End-of-project KGSIR on ERF developments, including time evolution, causes on diversity in ERF of CO2 and quantification of model errors, constrained ERF for aerosol-cloud interactions from models vs. observations after volcanic eruptions (Tasks. 1.1.1 and 1.1.3).

Annual CONSTRAIN report 2 on adaptation and mitigation choices

D5.7 (M18; CLIMATE ANALYTICS): Annual CONSTRAIN report 2 on adaptation and mitigation choices launched at annual December side event at UNFCCC COP. (Task 5.2.1).

KGSIR aimed at adaptation planners with info graphics on the robustness of 20-30 year projections

D5.2 (M36, CNRS, UNIVLEEDS, CLIMATE ANALYTICS, IMPERIAL): KGSIR aimed at adaptation planners characterising how scenario, policy and geophysical uncertainties affect projections over the next 20 to 30 years (Task 5.1.2).

Short report on main outcomes and participating organisations of the workshop on approaches to constraining climate sensitivity and integrating new insights on climate sensitivity

D43 M24 UNIVLEEDS ETH MPG STOCKHOLM Short report on main outcomes and participating organisations of the workshop for the scientific community on the various approaches to constrain climate sensitivity and integrating new insights on climate sensitivity developed by the midterm of the project in WPs 13 Participants of this two day workshop will include 7 CONSTRAIN scientists and 2 international participants for whom costs will be covered by the programme and up to 9 other participants who will be expected to cover their own travel accommodation and subsistence costs Task 422

KGSIR outlining the CONSTRAIN journal publications used by IPCC AR6 and the overall contribution to IPCC AR6

D4.1 (M16, UNIVLEEDS, MPG): A KGSIR outlining the CONSTRAIN journal publications used by IPCC AR6 and the overall contribution to IPCC AR6 (Tasks 4.1.1 and 4.1.2). This is expected to include at least 7 journal publications for relevant chapters as detailed in Section 2.

KGSIR on knowledge gained in understanding of climate sensitivity and its role in projections

D4.8 (M42, ETH, UNIVLEEDS, MPG, SU): A KGSIR on knowledge gained in understanding of climate sensitivity, TCRE and its role in projections (Task 4.2.2, 4.2.3).

Annual CONSTRAIN report 1 on adaptation and mitigation choices

D5.6 (M7; CLIMATE ANALYTICS): Annual CONSTRAIN report 1 on adaptation and mitigation choices launched at annual December side event at UNFCCC COP. (Task 5.2.1).

End-of-project KGSIR on rapid adjustment processes and constraint of ERF from spatiotemporal patterns

D1.6 (M48, ULEI, UNIVLEEDS, CICERO): End-of-project KGSIR on relative role of rapid adjustment processes and their timescales and constraint of ERF from spatiotemporal patterns (Tasks 1.2.1, 1.2.2 and 1.2.3)

Annual CONSTRAIN report 4 on adaptation and mitigation choices

D5.9 (M42; CLIMATE ANALYTICS): Annual CONSTRAIN report 4 on adaptation and mitigation choices launched at annual December side event at UNFCCC COP. (Task 5.2.1).

End-of-project KGSIR on robust circulation responses to climate change in the tropical Atlantic sector and in the mid-latitude European sector

D2.7 (M48, MPG, STOCKHOLM, WEIZMANN, CNRS): End-of-project KGSIR on robust circulation responses to climate change in the tropical Atlantic sector and in the mid-latitude European sector (all of Task 2.3).

End-of-Project KGSIR on the role of the ocean in setting the transient climate sensitivity

D3.3 (M48, METEO-FRANCE, MPG): End-of-Project KGSIR on the role of the ocean in setting the transient climate sensitivity to cumulative emissions, including the relative role of variations in SST patterns, the changes in ocean heat and carbon uptake (Tasks 3.1.2, 3.1.3, 3.2.2 and 3.2.3)

KGSIR on improved characterisation and understanding of the ERF concept.

D1.1 (M9, CICERO, UNIVLEEDS, MET OFFICE): KGSIR on improved characterisation and understanding of the ERF concept. This will be based on peer-reviewed publications to be assessed by IPCC AR6 on characterisation of model diversity of ERF due to CO2, on efficacy of climate drivers, and on time evolution of ERF (Task 1.1.1, 1.1.2, 1.1.3 and 1.1.4).

KGSIR on carbon budget estimates updates with the latest insights on forcing, variability and feedbacks

D5.3 (M48, IMPERIAL, CLIMATE ANALYTICS, UNIVLEEDS, CNRS): KGSIR on carbon budget estimates updates with the latest insights on forcing, variability and feedbacks, showing clearly how different uncertainties and short-lived climate forcer pathways affect budgets. Timed to meet IPCC AR6 WGI literature cut-off date and feed into Chapter 5 (Global carbon and other biogeochemical cycles and feedbacks). (Task 5.1.3 and 4.3.1).

Full documentation of the improved emulators in the form of a technical report or a model presentation publication for FAIR and OSCAR.

D4.11 (M36, CNRS, IASA, UNIVLEEDS): Full documentation of the improved emulators in the form of a technical report or a model presentation publication for FAIR and OSCAR (Task 4.3.1).

KGSIR assessing the skill of climate emulators

D4.12 (M36 ETH, IPSL-CNRS, UNIVLEEDS): KGSIR assessing the skill of climate emulators having participated in the intercomparison and how they should be used. This will examine the credibility of these tools and their limitations, which depends on the timescale, scenario and variable to inform scientists on how to use these emulators and inform policy makers where to trust their results (Task 4.3.2).

Online interactive infographics created such as the Climate Action Tracker, but targeting both adaptation and mitigation decisions

D5.12 (M48, CLIMATE ANALYTICS): Online interactive infographics created such as the Climate Action Tracker, but targeting both adaptation and mitigation decisions (Task 5.2.1).

Stakeholder driven and bespoke communication tools for general audience (e.g. graphic novel) on near term climate change

D5.11 (M48, UNIVLEEDS): A stakeholder driven and bespoke communication tool for general audience (e.g. graphic novel) on near term climate change. (Task 5.2.2).

Final CONSTRAIN summary input into the global stocktake

D5.10 (M44, CLIMATE ANALYTICS): Final CONSTRAIN summary input into the Global Stocktake. Whenever appropriate opportunities arise within the UNFCCC policy process leading up to the 2023 Global Stocktake. Depending on the modalities of the Global Stocktake process this deliverable could occur between M36 – M48 (Task 5.2.1).

Publikacje

Understanding the Extreme Spread in Climate Sensitivity within the Radiative‐Convective Equilibrium Model Intercomparison Project

Autorzy: Becker T., Wing A.A.
Opublikowane w: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Numer Vol. 12, Numer 10, 2020, Strona(/y) Pages e2020MS002165, ISSN 1942-2466
Wydawca: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020ms002165

Modifying Emissions Scenario Projections to Account for the Effects of COVID-19: Protocol for CovidMIP

Autorzy: Lamboll R.D., Jones C.D., Skeie R.B., Fiedler S., Samset B.H., Gillett N.P., Rogelj J., Forster P.M.
Opublikowane w: Geoscientific Model Development, Numer Vol. 14, Numer 6, 2021, Strona(/y) Pages 3683-3695, ISSN 1991-9603
Wydawca: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-14-3683-2021

Inter-Model Variability in Convection-Resolving Simulations of Subtropical Marine Low Clouds

Autorzy: Heim C., Hentgen L., Ban N., Schär C.
Opublikowane w: Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan Ser. II, Numer Vol. 99, Numer 5, 2021, Strona(/y) Pages 1271-1295, ISSN 2186-9057
Wydawca: Nihon kisho gakkai
DOI: 10.2151/jmsj.2021-062

Multiple Drivers of the North Atlantic Warming Hole

Autorzy: Keil P., Mauritsen T., Jungclaus J., Hedemann C., Olonscheck D., Ghosh R.
Opublikowane w: Nature Climate Change, Numer Vol. 10, Numer 7, 2020, Strona(/y) Pages 667-671, ISSN 1758-6798
Wydawca: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0819-8

Assessing the Size and Uncertainty of Remaining Carbon Budgets

Autorzy: Lamboll R.D., Nicholls Z.R.J., Smith C.J., Kikstra J.S., Byers E., Rogelj J.
Opublikowane w: Nature Climate Change, 2023, ISSN 1758-6798
Wydawca: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01848-5

Projected Land Ice Contributions to Twenty-First-Century Sea Level Rise

Autorzy: Edwards T.L., Nowicki S., Marzeion B., Hock R., Goelzer H., Seroussi H., Jourdain N.C., Slater D.A., Turner F.E., Smith C.J., McKenna C.M., Simon E., Abe-Ouchi A., Gregory J.M., Larour E., Lipscomb W.H., Payne A.J., Shepherd A., Agosta C., Alexander P., Albrecht T., Anderson B., Asay-Davis X., Aschwanden A., Barthel A., Bliss A., Calov R., Chambers C., Champollion N., Choi Y., Cullather R., Cuzzon
Opublikowane w: Nature, Numer Vol. 593, Numer 7857, 2021, Strona(/y) Pages 74-82, ISSN 1476-4687
Wydawca: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y

Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Modulates the Climate Impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation in Australia

Autorzy: Trascasa-Castro P., Maycock A.C., Ruprich-Robert Y., Turco M., Staten P.W.
Opublikowane w: Environmental Research Letters, Numer Vol. 18, Numer 8, 2023, Strona(/y) Pages 084029, ISSN 1748-9326
Wydawca: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ace920

Evaluating Large-Domain, Hecto-Meter, Large-Eddy Simulations of Trade-Wind Clouds Using EUREC4A Data

Autorzy: Schulz H. and Stevens B.
Opublikowane w: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Numer Vol. 15, Numer 10, 2023, Strona(/y) Pages e2023MS003648, ISSN 1942-2466
Wydawca: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2023ms003648

Quantifying Uncertainty in Aggregated Climate Change Risk Assessments

Autorzy: Harrington L.J., Schleussner C.-F., Otto F.E.L.
Opublikowane w: Nature Communications, Numer Vol. 12, Numer 1, 2021, Strona(/y) Pages 7140, ISSN 2041-1723
Wydawca: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-27491-2

Effects of Local and Remote Black Carbon Aerosols on Summer Monsoon Precipitation Over India

Autorzy: Krishnamohan K.S., Modak A., Bala G.
Opublikowane w: Environmental Research Communications, Numer Vol. 3, Numer 8, 2021, Strona(/y) Pages 081003, ISSN 2515-7620
Wydawca: IOP Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/ac18d1

Scientific Data from Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project

Autorzy: Myhre G., Samset B., Forster P.M., Hodnebrog Ø., Sandstad M., Mohr C.W., Sillmann J., Stjern C.W., Andrews T., Boucher O., Faluvegi G., Iversen T., Lamarque J.-F., Kasoar M., Kirkevåg A., Kramer R., Liu L., Mülmenstädt J., Olivié D., Quaas J., Richardson T.B., Shawki D., Shindell D., Smith C., Stier P., Tang T., Takemura T., Voulgarakis A., Watson-Parris D.
Opublikowane w: Nature Scientific Data, Numer Vol. 9, Numer 1, 2022, Strona(/y) Pages 123, ISSN 2052-4463
Wydawca: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41597-022-01194-9

The Impact of CO2-Driven Climate Change on the Arctic Atmospheric Energy Budget in CMIP6 Climate Model Simulations

Autorzy: Linke O., Quaas J.
Opublikowane w: Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, Numer Vol. 74, Numer 1, 2022, Strona(/y) Pages 106–118, ISSN 1600-0870
Wydawca: Taylor & Francis
DOI: 10.16993/tellusa.29

On the Structure of Instantaneous Radiative Forcing Kernels for Greenhouse Gases

Autorzy: Maycock A.C., Smith C.J., Rap A., Rutherford O.
Opublikowane w: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Numer Vol. 78, Numer 3, 2021, Strona(/y) Pages 949-965, ISSN 0022-4928
Wydawca: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jas-d-19-0267.1

Application of the Pseudo-Global Warming Approach in a Kilometer-Resolution Climate Simulation of the Tropics

Autorzy: Heim C., Leutwyler D., Schär C.
Opublikowane w: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Numer Vol. 128, Numer 5, 2023, Strona(/y) Pages e2022JD037958, ISSN 2169-897X
Wydawca: Wiley
DOI: 10.1029/2022jd037958

The Pseudo-Global-Warming (PGW) Approach: Methodology, Software Package PGW4ERA5 v1.1, Validation and Sensitivity Analysis

Autorzy: Brogli R., Heim C., Mensch J., Sørland S.L., Schär C.
Opublikowane w: Geoscientific Model Development, Numer Vol. 16, Numer 3, 2023, Strona(/y) Pages 907-926, ISSN 1991-9603
Wydawca: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-907-2023

Biased Estimates of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity and Transient Climate Response Derived From Historical CMIP6 Simulations

Autorzy: Dong Y., Armour K.C., Proistosescu C., Andrews T., Battisti D.S., Forster P.M., Paynter D., Smith C.J., Shiogama H.
Opublikowane w: Geophysical Research Letters, Numer Vol. 48, Numer 24, 2021, Strona(/y) Pages e2021GL095778, ISSN 0094-8276
Wydawca: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2021gl095778

Path Independence of Carbon Budgets When Meeting a Stringent Global Mean Temperature Target After an Overshoot

Autorzy: Tokarska K.B., Zickfeld K., Rogelj J.
Opublikowane w: Earth's Future, Numer Vol. 7, Numer 12, 2019, Strona(/y) Pages 1283-1295, ISSN 2328-4277
Wydawca: Wiley
DOI: 10.1029/2019ef001312

Clouds and Convective Self‐Aggregation in a Multimodel Ensemble of Radiative‐Convective Equilibrium Simulations

Autorzy: Wing A.A., Stauffer C.L., Becker T., Reed K.A., Ahn M.-S., Arnold N.P., Bony S., Branson M., Bryan G.H., Chaboureau J.-P., De Roode S.R., Gayatri K., Hohenegger C., Hu I.-K., Jansson F., Jones T.R., Khairoutdinov M., Kim D., Martin Z.K., Matsugishi S., Medeiros B., Miura H., Moon Y., Müller S.K., Ohno T., Popp M., Prabhakaran T., Randall D., Rios‐Berrios R., Rochetin N., Roehrig R., Romps D.M.
Opublikowane w: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Numer Vol. 12, Numer 9, 2020, Strona(/y) Pages e2020MS002138, ISSN 1942-2466
Wydawca: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020ms002138

Understanding Top‐of‐Atmosphere Flux Bias in the AeroCom Phase III Models: A Clear‐Sky Perspective

Autorzy: Su W., Liang L., Myhre G., Thorsen T.J., Loeb N.G., Schuster G.L., Ginoux P., Paulot F., Neubauer D., Checa-Garcia R., Matsui H., Tsigaridis K., Skeie R.B., Takemura T., Bauer S.E., Schulz M.
Opublikowane w: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Numer Vol. 13, Numer 9, 2021, Strona(/y) Pages e2021MS002584, ISSN 1942-2466
Wydawca: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2021ms002584

Northern-High-Latitude Permafrost and Terrestrial Carbon Response to Two Solar Geoengineering Scenarios

Autorzy: Chen Y., Ji D., Zhang Q., Moore J.C., Boucher O., Jones A., Lurton T., Mills M.J., Niemeier U., Séférian R., Tilmes S.
Opublikowane w: Earth System Dynamics, Numer Vol. 14, Numer 1, 2023, Strona(/y) Pages 55-79, ISSN 2190-4987
Wydawca: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/esd-14-55-2023

Present‐Day and Historical Aerosol and Ozone Characteristics in CNRM CMIP6 Simulations

Autorzy: Michou M., Nabat P., Saint‐Martin D., Bock J., Decharme B., Mallet M., Roehrig R., Séférian R., Sénési S., Voldoire A.
Opublikowane w: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Numer Vol. 12, Numer 1, 2019, Strona(/y) Pages e2019MS001816, ISSN 1942-2466
Wydawca: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2019ms001816

ICON-Sapphire: Simulating the Components of the Earth System and Their Interactions at Kilometer and Subkilometer Scales

Autorzy: Hohenegger C., Korn P., Linardakis L., Redler R., Schnur R., Adamidis P., Bao J., Bastin S., Behravesh M., Bergemann M., Biercamp J., Bockelmann H., Brokopf R., Brüggemann N., Casaroli L., Chegini F., Datseris G., Esch M., George G., Giorgetta M., Gutjahr O., Haak H., Hanke M., Ilyina T., Jahns T., Jungclaus J., Kern M., Klocke D., Kluft L., Kölling T., Kornblueh L., Kosukhin S., Kroll C., Lee J
Opublikowane w: Geoscientific Model Development, Numer Vol. 16, Numer 2, 2023, Strona(/y) Pages 779-811, ISSN 1991-9603
Wydawca: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-779-2023

Ten New Insights in Climate Science 2021: A Horizon Scan

Autorzy: Martin M.A., Sendra O.A., Bastos A., Bauer N., Bertram C., Blenckner T., Bowen K., Brando P.M., Rudolph T.B., Büchs M., Bustamante M., Chen D., Cleugh H., Dasgupta P., Denton F., Donges J.F., Donkor F.K., Duan H., Duarte C.M., Ebi K.L., Edwards C.M., Engel A., Fisher E., Fuss S., Gaertner J., Gettelman A., Girardin C.A.J., Golledge N.R., Green J.F., Grose M.R., Hashizume M., Hebden S., Hepach H.,
Opublikowane w: Global Sustainability, Numer Vol. 4, 2021, Strona(/y) Pages e25, ISSN 2059-4798
Wydawca: Cambridge University Press
DOI: 10.1017/sus.2021.25

Sources of Uncertainty in Multimodel Large Ensemble Projections of the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation

Autorzy: McKenna C.M., Maycock A.C.
Opublikowane w: Geophysical Research Letters, Numer Vol. 48, Numer 14, 2021, Strona(/y) Pages e2021GL093258, ISSN 0094-8276
Wydawca: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2021gl093258

Silicone v1.0.0: An Open-Source Python Package for Inferring Missing Emissions Data for Climate Change Research

Autorzy: Lamboll R.D., Nicholls Z.R.J., Kikstra J.S., Meinshausen M., Rogelj J.
Opublikowane w: Geoscientific Model Development, Numer Vol. 13, Numer 11, 2020, Strona(/y) Pages 5259-5275, ISSN 1991-9603
Wydawca: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-13-5259-2020

Broad Consistency Between Observed and Simulated Trends in Sea Surface Temperature Patterns

Autorzy: Olonscheck D., Rugenstein M., Marotzke J.
Opublikowane w: Geophysical Research Letters, Numer Vol. 47, Numer 10, 2020, Strona(/y) Pages e2019GL086773, ISSN 0094-8276
Wydawca: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2019gl086773

Attribution of Multi-Annual to Decadal Changes in the Climate System: The Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP)

Autorzy: Smith D.M., Gillett N.P., Simpson I.R., Athanasiadis P.J., Baehr J., Bethke I., Bilge T.A., Bonnet R., Boucher O., Findell K.L., Gastineau G., Gualdi S., Hermanson L., Leung L.R., Mignot J., Müller W.A., Osprey S., Otterå O.H., Persad G.G., Scaife A.A., Schmidt G.A., Shiogama H., Sutton R.T., Swingedouw D., Yang S., Zhou T., Ziehn T.
Opublikowane w: Frontiers in Climate, Numer Vol. 4, 2022, ISSN 2624-9553
Wydawca: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2022.955414

Climate Model Projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

Autorzy: Tebaldi C., Debeire K., Eyring V., Fischer E., Fyfe J., Friedlingstein P., Knutti R., Lowe J., O'Neill B., Sanderson B., van Vuuren D., Riahi K., Meinshausen M., Nicholls Z., Tokarska K.B., Hurtt G., Kriegler E., Lamarque J.-F., Meehl G., Moss R., Bauer S.E., Boucher O., Brovkin V., Byun Y.-H., Dix M., Gualdi S., Guo H., John J.G., Kharin S., Kim Y., Koshiro T., Ma L., Olivié D., Panickal S., Qia
Opublikowane w: Earth System Dynamics, Numer Vol. 12, Numer 1, 2021, Strona(/y) Pages 253-293, ISSN 2190-4987
Wydawca: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/esd-12-253-2021

Global Carbon Budget 2021

Autorzy: Friedlingstein P., Jones M.W., O'Sullivan M., Andrew R.M., Bakker D.C.E., Hauck J., Le Quéré C., Peters G.P., Peters W., Pongratz J., Sitch S., Canadell J.G., Ciais P., Jackson R.B., Alin S.R., Anthoni P., Bates N.R., Becker M., Bellouin N., Bopp L., Chau T.T.T., Chevallier F., Chini L.P., Cronin M., Currie K.I., Decharme B., Djeutchouang L.M., Dou X., Evans W., Feely R.A., Feng L., Gasser T., G
Opublikowane w: Earth System Science Data, Numer Vol. 14, Numer 4, 2022, Strona(/y) Pages 1917-2005, ISSN 1866-3516
Wydawca: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022

Effective Radiative Forcing and Adjustments in CMIP6 Models

Autorzy: Smith C.J., Kramer R.J., Myhre G., Alterskjær K., Collins W., Sima A., Boucher O., Dufresne J.-L., Nabat P., Michou M., Yukimoto S., Cole J., Paynter D., Shiogama H., O'Connor F.M., Robertson E., Wiltshire A., Andrews T., Hannay C., Miller R., Nazarenko L., Kirkevåg A., Olivié D., Fiedler S., Lewinschal A., Mackallah C., Dix M., Pincus R., Forster P.M.
Opublikowane w: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Numer Vol. 20, Numer 16, 2020, Strona(/y) Pages 9591-9618, ISSN 1680-7324
Wydawca: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020

Climate Model Selection by Independence, Performance, and Spread (ClimSIPS v1.0.1) for Regional Applications

Autorzy: Merrifield A.L., Brunner L., Lorenz R., Humphrey V., Knutti R.
Opublikowane w: Geoscientific Model Development, Numer Vol. 16, Numer 16, 2023, Strona(/y) Pages 4715-4747, ISSN 1991-9603
Wydawca: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-4715-2023

Global Carbon Budget 2020

Autorzy: Friedlingstein P., O'Sullivan M., Jones M.W., Andrew R.M., Hauck J., Olsen A., Peters G.P., Peters W., Pongratz J., Sitch S., Le Quéré C., Canadell J.G., Ciais P., Jackson R.B., Alin S., Aragão L.E.O., Arneth A., Arora V., Bates N.R., Becker M., Benoit-Cattin A., Bittig H.C., Bopp L., Bultan S., Chandra N., Chevallier F., Chini L.P., Evans W., Florentie L., Forster P.M., Gasser T., Gehlen M., G
Opublikowane w: Earth System Science Data, Numer Vol. 12, Numer 4, 2020, Strona(/y) Pages 3269-3340, ISSN 1866-3516
Wydawca: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020

The Effect of Rapid Adjustments to Halocarbons and N2O on Radiative Forcing

Autorzy: Hodnebrog Ø., Myhre G., Kramer R.J., Shine K.P., Andrews T., Faluvegi G., Kasoar M., Kirkevåg A., Lamarque J.-F., Mülmenstädt J., Olivié D., Samset B.H., Shindell D., Smith C.J., Takemura T., Voulgarakis A.
Opublikowane w: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Numer Vol. 3, Numer 1, 2020, Strona(/y) Pages 43, ISSN 2397-3722
Wydawca: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-020-00150-x

Widespread Shallow Mesoscale Circulations Observed in the Trades

Autorzy: George G., Stevens B., Bony S., Vogel R., Naumann A.K.
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The Effect of Convective Injection of Ice on Stratospheric Water Vapor in a Changing Climate

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Observational Evidence for a Stability Iris Effect in the Tropics

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Understanding Pattern Scaling Errors Across a Range of Emissions Pathways

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A Comprehensive and Synthetic Dataset for Global, Regional, and National Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector 1970–2018 with an Extension to 2019

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The Impact of Stratospheric Aerosol Intervention on the North Atlantic and Quasi-Biennial Oscillations in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G6sulfur Experiment

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Uncompensated Claims to Fair Emission Space Risk Putting Paris Agreement Goals Out of Reach

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Energy Budget Constraints on Historical Radiative Forcing

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Climate Change Response of Tropical Atlantic Clouds in a Kilometer-Resolution Model

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Early Development and Tuning of a Global Coupled Cloud Resolving Model, and its Fast Response to Increasing CO2

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Increased Risk of Near Term Global Warming due to a Recent AMOC Weakening

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Carbon Cycle Response to Temperature Overshoot Beyond 2°C: An Analysis of CMIP6 Models

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A Bayesian Framework for Emergent Constraints: Case Studies of Climate Sensitivity With PMIP

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On the Effect of Historical SST Patterns on Radiative Feedback

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Historical Total Ozone Radiative Forcing Derived from CMIP6 Simulations

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Connecting the SST Pattern Problem and the Hot Model Problem

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The Effect of Anthropogenic Aerosols on the Aleutian Low

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Eddy Activity Response to Global Warming-Like Temperature Changes

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The Deployment Length of Solar Radiation Modification: An Interplay of Mitigation, Net-negative Emissions and Climate Uncertainty

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Cloud Patterns in the Trades Have Four Interpretable Dimensions

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Impact of Holuhraun Volcano Aerosols on Clouds in Cloud-System-Resolving Simulations

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Climate-Driven Chemistry and Aerosol Feedbacks in CMIP6 Earth System Models

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Global Warming at Near-Constant Tropospheric Relative Humidity is Supported by Observations

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The Time Scale of Shallow Convective Self-Aggregation in Large-Eddy Simulations Is Sensitive to Numerics

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Past Warming Trend Constrains Future Warming in CMIP6 Models

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Changes in Poleward Atmospheric Energy Transport Over a Wide Range of Climates: Energetic and Diffusive Perspectives and A Priori Theories

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Sugar, Gravel, Fish, and Flowers: Dependence of Mesoscale Patterns of Trade‐Wind Clouds on Environmental Conditions

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Dependence of Climate Sensitivity on the Given Distribution of Relative Humidity

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On the Climate Sensitivity and Historical Warming Evolution in Recent Coupled Model Ensembles

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Tuning the MPI-ESM1.2 Global Climate Model to Improve the Match With Instrumental Record Warming by Lowering Its Climate Sensitivity

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Responsibility of Major Emitters for Country-Level Warming and Extreme Hot Years

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Trade Wind Boundary Layer Turbulence and Shallow Precipitating Convection: New Insights Combining SAR Images, Satellite Brightness Temperature, and Airborne In Situ Measurements

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