Modelling diseases in Mediterranean countries
Diabetes and CVDs are increasing in prevalence in low- and middle-income countries around the Mediterranean Sea. This has alerted health authorities to take appropriate action and devise country-specific recommendations in order to reduce the burden of these diseases. Based on this, the EU-funded MEDCHAMPS project wished to perform an epidemiological analysis of the risk factors implicated in diabetes and CVDs in occupied Palestinian territories, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey. The information would then be used to formulate policy recommendations inside and outside the health sector. For coronary heart disease (CHD) — risk factor data including cholesterol levels, blood pressure, diabetes and body mass index (BMI), were collected and computed into epidemiological models. Findings revealed an increase in BMI and a persisting prevalence of smoking among men, mainly in Syria. There is a high probability that mortality rates due to CHD rose in Syria and Tunisia as a result of the associated risk factors. A survey on diabetes and CVD policies in these countries revealed a lack of comprehensive and well defined measures. Major contributors of this situation were the centralised management system, a scarcity of information on the aforementioned diseases and a lack of specialist health personnel. The data from all four countries were computed into CHD and diabetes models and compared with observed data and global estimates of disease burden. Overall, the MEDCHAMPS risk factors were successful in explaining the mortality rates due to CHD and predicting diabetes prevalence. The information was utilised by project partners who proposed appropriate policies for each country, with healthcare cost estimation and appropriate action plans. One such measure is the reduction of dietary salt intake through a health promotion campaign, food packaging labelling and reducing salt content in processed food. Successful outcomes will reduce the incidence or severity of CVDs and diabetes through timely interventions and lifestyle changes.