Deep Atlantic mysteries unveiled in the face of climate change
ATLAS (A Trans-AtLantic Assessment and deep-water ecosystem-based Spatial management plan for Europe) was born out of the realisation that, despite being one of the most studied oceans on Earth, the Atlantic still holds many mysteries. Plus, it is changing at a faster pace now than it has over the past 6 million years. How exactly it is changing, how we can expect it to keep changing in the future, and how we can better manage avoiding dramatic consequences are some of the questions at the heart of the project. With 34 deep-sea missions, ATLAS has tackled subjects as varied as the connectivity of deep-water coral habitats, marine governance, the identification of vulnerable ecosystems and the fate of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Prof. Murray Roberts, coordinator of ATLAS, discusses the project’s approach, findings and expected impact.
What type of gaps in knowledge did you aim to fill with this project?
ATLAS focuses on understanding the ecosystems of the Atlantic’s deep seabed. These are the most poorly known, yet also the ecosystems most vulnerable to growing human impacts from fisheries and deep-water oil/gas production. These ecosystems are also largely impacted by the wider consequences of global climate change such as ocean acidification, warming and deoxygenation, and the situation might just get worse if deep-sea mining becomes a reality. The reality today is that the management of deep-sea ecosystems is very sectoral. Each stakeholder has its own way, from fishermen to oil/gas companies. Besides, these plans have been drafted with little ecological understanding. For example, Marine Protected Area designations take little to no account of ecosystem connectivity. ATLAS is creating mathematical models of how key areas are connected, by simulating how larvae would transfer across the Atlantic.
What are the most innovative aspects of your approach?
We ground all our work in the physics of the Atlantic. We then use this robust understanding of ocean currents to study ecosystem functioning, biodiversity/biogeography and connectivity. Moreover, we integrate socio-economic analyses and people’s perceptions of deep-sea ecosystems into our work. The role of people and personal opinions is too often ignored or not taken seriously. Social science and policy are at the very heart of everything ATLAS does.
Can you tell us more about the expeditions you organised? What was the extent of their missions and how did you proceed to pick the case studies?
So far ATLAS has led or participated in 34 offshore expeditions. If I had to highlight two of them, I would probably go for the 2016 MEDWAVES expedition led by the Spanish Institute of Oceanography and our 2-year collaboration with the Canadians to study sponge grounds in the Davis Strait. The first expedition aimed to understand how Mediterranean Outflow Water influences the biodiversity and biogeography of seamounts and goes all the way from Spain to the Azores. The MEDWAVES team is exploring important scientific ideas on how the Mediterranean and Atlantic are linked ecologically. The second expedition required ATLAS working aboard the Canadian Coast Guard icebreaker ‘Amundsen’ to survey the area, assess food supply to the sponges and leave long-term landers from our partners in the USA that were collected earlier this summer. The ‘Amundsen’ expedition is a fantastic example of how ATLAS brought Trans-Atlantic partnerships together to deliver results that we wouldn’t have achieved otherwise.
What would you say are your most important findings? Can you provide one or two concrete examples?
There are many to choose from. We have published 59 peer reviewed papers with 74 more currently in preparation. I could probably highlight the ‘Nature’ and ‘Science’ papers from the physics work package. The ‘Nature’ paper by Thornalley et al. in particular is important because it shows that the Atlantic’s major overturning circulation – which regulates climate by distributing heat around the globe and whose potential shutdown inspired the 2004 blockbuster movie “The Day after Tomorrow” – is already running slower than previously thought. It is even projected to keep slowing down with global climate change. There are many other issues we could discuss, from microplastics to marine policy and economics, which were all covered by the project.
What are the main blue growth recommendations resulting from the project?
The main recommendations relate to the overarching importance of understanding ecosystems better. We need to know how they will respond to changing ocean conditions BEFORE we can develop management plans. For instance, ATLAS has been providing input to critical UN negotiations aiming to create a new legal instrument for the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity in areas beyond national jurisdiction – known as the BBNJ process. We were present at the preparatory committees and ongoing Intergovernmental Conferences. The 3rd IGC took place at the UN headquarters in August, and our policy team has done significant work there. There are several other examples, including our work at Ocean Business earlier this year and deliverables still in development. For example, we’ve been looking into how the oil industry could adapt its operations in light of ATLAS findings.
What do you hope will be the long-term impact of ATLAS, especially in the face of recent accelerations in climate change-induced disasters and growing public awareness?
We hope the project will lead to better ocean management and we have engaged deeply in the science-policy process to make it happen. We also place people at the heart of everything we do, which should help us have a long-term impact. For example, we have developed new educational materials in partnership with our educational lead at Dynamic Earth – one of Europe’s largest earth science-focused visitor attractions in Europe – along with a new oceans gallery to showcase ATLAS work.
Do you have any follow-up plans?
Yes, there is a variety of plans ahead. The biggest example is a new H2020 project ‘iAtlantic; an integrated assessment of Atlantic marine ecosystems in space and time’. I also coordinate this project. We have created a consortium that takes the ATLAS approach and expands aspects of its work to the entire deep and open Atlantic Ocean, by working with partners in Argentina, South Africa, Brazil, Canada and the USA.
