Swedish researchers develop new method for better earthquake warnings
What if scientists could accurately predict the next 19 major earthquakes that take place every year around the world? Well, one team has developed a system of stress analysis in earthquake research which could be a breakthrough into predicting earthquakes earlier and more accurately. Professor Ragnar Slunga of Uppsala University, Sweden, in charge of the project funded by the Swedish Defence Research Agency, told CORDIS News: 'To call it a breakthrough is an understatement. This new method is even better than I thought possible and turns earthquake research into something closer to weather forecasting than prediction.' The system uses highly developed geophysical observations systems to estimate the complete stress tensor in a given area, before monitoring the changes in the magnitude of that stress and the impact on the cracks or fault lines in the earth's crust. By rooting the method of analysis in physics, instead of statistics, the project team believes they can make more accurate predictions, even going so far as to suggest that the new model can predict quakes years before they occur. Such confidence in their work did not come over night. It is the result of decades of research into earthquakes and especially the analysis of 250,000 micro-tremors in one of the most earthquake-prone places on the planet; Iceland. 'What is crucial to whether the analysis is reliable is to what extent the small quakes are analysed,' said Prof Slunga. 'It is necessary to analyse very minor micro-tremors as well, especially if the method is to be used to warn people immediately before a coming earthquake, a few days or a few hours before the quake.' If an accurate early warning system for earthquakes could be put in place, it could the spell the end of the huge loss of life experienced each time an earthquake hits highly populated areas such as Japan and California.
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