Periodic Reporting for period 3 - HumMingBird (Enhanced migration measures from a multidimensional perspective)
Periodo di rendicontazione: 2022-06-01 al 2024-05-31
Migration has become a matter of significant social, political and broader public concern. It has therefore shifted very high on the agenda of national and EU authorities. There is a need for tools to forecast migration flows in order to minimise shocks and tensions and to foster good governance. HumMingBird’s objectives can be summarised as follows:
• To explore and validate the use of big data in mapping, analysing and ‘nowcasting’ emerging migration flows;
• To understand the changing nature of migration flows and the drivers of migration, including from the migrants' point of view;
• To analyse the attitudes of locals towards migration and migrants, and the role of legacy and social media in shaping these attitudes;
• To examine the interactions between migration flows and policies, and assess the effectiveness of policies.
• To explore and validate the use of big data in mapping, analysing and ‘nowcasting’ emerging migration flows;
• To understand the changing nature of migration flows and the drivers of migration, including from the migrants' point of view;
• To analyse the attitudes of locals towards migration and migrants, and the role of legacy and social media in shaping these attitudes;
• To examine the interactions between migration flows and policies, and assess the effectiveness of policies.
The research focussed primarily on asylum seekers and irregular migrants, groups for which the European Union has specific competences.
The key messages of the HumMingBird research can be summarised as follows:
1. Big data provide important and detailed ‘real-time’ information about migration patterns at relatively low cost. Both the European Commission and Member States should invest in more systematic data collection from these sources. Agreements should be negotiated with neighbour countries and providers of big data with a view to creating a strong evidence base for more pro-active reception measures.
2. Nowcasting and forecasting models based on big data and AI can yield fairly accurate figures about emerging migration flows. They will even become more accurate as longer time series of indicators can feed into the models. It is worthwhile to continue investing in experiments with such models.
3. Ethical use of big data on migration is essential in future research as well as in the monitoring of migration by public authorities. Establishing stringent guidelines for the responsible use of migration data is essential to ensure that these technological advancements benefit society as a whole.
4. Our research in migration hubs has yielded interesting insights into their role as places where migrants work (to fund the next stage of their journey), where they network and collect information. Based on this information, migrants often reorient their journeys. The EU and/or Member States could set up antennas in these hubs to promote legal applications and disseminate information on the risks linked to irregular border crossing - offering assistance for returning to places of origin.
5. Irregular migration is not only problematic for the receiving countries: it involves a very high physical, mental and economic cost for the migrants themselves. Pushbacks and extended detention add to this cost for both parties. Respectful treatment, including access to essential services and protection of vulnerable persons should be guaranteed and monitored.
6. (News) media contribute significantly to shaping the attitudes of locals towards migrants. Positive narratives and reliable information strengthen trust and prevent polarisation. Consequently, media have a responsibility in ensuring qualified content. Public authorities and civil society organisations can play a role by designing balanced media strategies, including incentives for media integrity and action against hate speech.
This message also applies to social media. Our mapping of hate speech and migrant-friendliness across the EU can help governments to differentiate their strategies by region. Regular updating of this kind of mapping (at low cost) can help monitoring changes in the public opinion.
7. Push as well as pull factors will likely persist in the future. The present restrictive migration policies will at best discourage part of the potential migrants from moving to Europe, while producing negative side-effects (shifting geographies, more risky behaviour and more irregular immigration, more suffering, and less return migration).
Alternatively, European member states could create more legal opportunities for immigration, based on their labour market needs (e.g. through Talent Partnerships), and invest more in economic cooperation with surrounding countries.
8. Restrictive immigration policies also tend to create a vicious circle of exclusion that reinforces fear and separation, while inclusive policies create a virtuous circle of integration that promotes openness and interaction.
Selective admission policies (e.g. based on labour market needs) can be useful, provided that the selection criteria are not limited to language proficiency and/or level of qualification but also include informal competencies and soft skills.
In any event, selective admission policies can never be used as an argument to escape the duty to welcome other refugees.
The key messages of the HumMingBird research can be summarised as follows:
1. Big data provide important and detailed ‘real-time’ information about migration patterns at relatively low cost. Both the European Commission and Member States should invest in more systematic data collection from these sources. Agreements should be negotiated with neighbour countries and providers of big data with a view to creating a strong evidence base for more pro-active reception measures.
2. Nowcasting and forecasting models based on big data and AI can yield fairly accurate figures about emerging migration flows. They will even become more accurate as longer time series of indicators can feed into the models. It is worthwhile to continue investing in experiments with such models.
3. Ethical use of big data on migration is essential in future research as well as in the monitoring of migration by public authorities. Establishing stringent guidelines for the responsible use of migration data is essential to ensure that these technological advancements benefit society as a whole.
4. Our research in migration hubs has yielded interesting insights into their role as places where migrants work (to fund the next stage of their journey), where they network and collect information. Based on this information, migrants often reorient their journeys. The EU and/or Member States could set up antennas in these hubs to promote legal applications and disseminate information on the risks linked to irregular border crossing - offering assistance for returning to places of origin.
5. Irregular migration is not only problematic for the receiving countries: it involves a very high physical, mental and economic cost for the migrants themselves. Pushbacks and extended detention add to this cost for both parties. Respectful treatment, including access to essential services and protection of vulnerable persons should be guaranteed and monitored.
6. (News) media contribute significantly to shaping the attitudes of locals towards migrants. Positive narratives and reliable information strengthen trust and prevent polarisation. Consequently, media have a responsibility in ensuring qualified content. Public authorities and civil society organisations can play a role by designing balanced media strategies, including incentives for media integrity and action against hate speech.
This message also applies to social media. Our mapping of hate speech and migrant-friendliness across the EU can help governments to differentiate their strategies by region. Regular updating of this kind of mapping (at low cost) can help monitoring changes in the public opinion.
7. Push as well as pull factors will likely persist in the future. The present restrictive migration policies will at best discourage part of the potential migrants from moving to Europe, while producing negative side-effects (shifting geographies, more risky behaviour and more irregular immigration, more suffering, and less return migration).
Alternatively, European member states could create more legal opportunities for immigration, based on their labour market needs (e.g. through Talent Partnerships), and invest more in economic cooperation with surrounding countries.
8. Restrictive immigration policies also tend to create a vicious circle of exclusion that reinforces fear and separation, while inclusive policies create a virtuous circle of integration that promotes openness and interaction.
Selective admission policies (e.g. based on labour market needs) can be useful, provided that the selection criteria are not limited to language proficiency and/or level of qualification but also include informal competencies and soft skills.
In any event, selective admission policies can never be used as an argument to escape the duty to welcome other refugees.
Progress beyond state of the art:
Firstly, various types of big data were used to ‘nowcast’ (or at least, monitor very closely) emerging migration flows. A variety of big data sources were used for this purpose: e.g. satellite maps to measure the impact of climate change and environmental disasters such as floods or droughts; the use of social media; air traffic data; quantitative (geo-located) indicators of telephone conversations; data on deaths of undocumented residents.
Secondly, in-depth qualitative research focussed on the perspective of migrants themselves. In addition to interviews with settled migrants, anthropological research was conducted in some key ‘migration hubs’, i.e. transit places where migrants ‘en route’ reside for a while and often adjust their plans depending on the information on obstacles and opportunities that they collect.
As regards the attitudes of 'locals' towards migration and migrants, a survey was carried out in 6 EU countries, and social media data were used to map hate speech and pro-immigrant attitudes.
Results:
98 outputs were produced, including 6 new datasets, a series of new migration indicators, and (mainly) scientific and policy-oriented publications. The datasets can be found in data repositories (mainly CESSDA); the publications are listed on the project website https://hummingbird-h2020.eu.
Impact:
The scientific impact included (a) enhanced quantitative and qualitative information tools on migration flows, as well as knowledge on their determinants; (b) design of scenarios and forecasting/nowcasting models of migration flows in interaction with migration policies. Five PhDs were successfully completed within the context of the project.
The dissemination occurred through a website (15,694 visits by 3,186 unique visitors), social media (1721 followers), newsletters (7), policy briefs (5), expert workshops (7), conferences organised by the consortium (3) and participation in external events (42).
The policy impact takes time beyond the research project. In addition to the 5 policy briefs, the consortium co--organised a conference together with the FUME and QuantMig research consortia in April 2023, targeted at researchers and policy makers. The HumMingBird team also organised a policy symposium two months before the European elections of 2024, with 102 participants including EC officers, national policy makers, international experts, representatives of international NGOs and the European Parliament.
Firstly, various types of big data were used to ‘nowcast’ (or at least, monitor very closely) emerging migration flows. A variety of big data sources were used for this purpose: e.g. satellite maps to measure the impact of climate change and environmental disasters such as floods or droughts; the use of social media; air traffic data; quantitative (geo-located) indicators of telephone conversations; data on deaths of undocumented residents.
Secondly, in-depth qualitative research focussed on the perspective of migrants themselves. In addition to interviews with settled migrants, anthropological research was conducted in some key ‘migration hubs’, i.e. transit places where migrants ‘en route’ reside for a while and often adjust their plans depending on the information on obstacles and opportunities that they collect.
As regards the attitudes of 'locals' towards migration and migrants, a survey was carried out in 6 EU countries, and social media data were used to map hate speech and pro-immigrant attitudes.
Results:
98 outputs were produced, including 6 new datasets, a series of new migration indicators, and (mainly) scientific and policy-oriented publications. The datasets can be found in data repositories (mainly CESSDA); the publications are listed on the project website https://hummingbird-h2020.eu.
Impact:
The scientific impact included (a) enhanced quantitative and qualitative information tools on migration flows, as well as knowledge on their determinants; (b) design of scenarios and forecasting/nowcasting models of migration flows in interaction with migration policies. Five PhDs were successfully completed within the context of the project.
The dissemination occurred through a website (15,694 visits by 3,186 unique visitors), social media (1721 followers), newsletters (7), policy briefs (5), expert workshops (7), conferences organised by the consortium (3) and participation in external events (42).
The policy impact takes time beyond the research project. In addition to the 5 policy briefs, the consortium co--organised a conference together with the FUME and QuantMig research consortia in April 2023, targeted at researchers and policy makers. The HumMingBird team also organised a policy symposium two months before the European elections of 2024, with 102 participants including EC officers, national policy makers, international experts, representatives of international NGOs and the European Parliament.