Descrizione del progetto
Valutare gli impatti interconnessi dei cambiamenti climatici
Gli impatti dei cambiamenti climatici sono interconnessi. Ad esempio, i rendimenti dei raccolti ridotti in una parte del mondo esercitano pressione su popolazioni che vivono altrove attraverso i mercati alimentari internazionali. Il progetto CASCADES, finanziato dall’UE, cerca di comprendere le condizioni per cui i rischi climatici si propagano oltre la loro ubicazione geografica, settoriale e temporale in modi che potrebbero influenzare la stabilità e la coesione europea. Il suo principale obiettivo è quello di identificare i punti di leva politici che possono aiutare l’UE ad adattarsi e rispondere a tali rischi climatici a cascata. Il progetto attuerà diverse metodologie: modellizzazione biofisica dell’impatto climatico, modellizzazione di reti commerciali e finanziarie, metodi di integrazione dei dati, approcci qualitativi tra cui l’analisi di casi di studio di punti caldi e simulazioni politiche che coinvolgono responsabili decisionali e operatori commerciali.
Obiettivo
Climate change amplifies existing risks and vulnerabilities in a globalised world. New risks are also emerging from complex cross-sectoral and multi-dimensional interactions that aggregate gradually, and sometimes emerge abruptly. Recent examples of links between crop damage in Russia, international food prices and political instability in North Africa, as well as impact chains from drought, migration, civil unrest and war in the Middle East, demonstrate how climate-induced risks outside Europe can cascade and threaten Europe. CASCADES strives to understand the conditions under which climate risks propagate beyond their geographical and temporal location in ways that may affect European stability and cohesion. It does so via a broad 360° risk assessment and deeper thematic analyses of trade, value chain, financial and political connections between Europe and the rest of the world. CASCADES’ ambition is to identify the policy leverage points that can help the EU to adapt and respond to such cascading climate risks. CASCADES integrates a wide range of established and innovative methodologies – many of which have not been seriously applied to adaptation questions before – ranging from biophysical climate impact modelling, economic modelling of trade and financial networks, and data integration methods, to qualitative approaches including hotspot case study analysis original social science research and serious games. CASCADES combines leading expertise in climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, international trade and commodity flows, foreign policy and security, and finance and business, with deep knowledge and proven experience of co-creating with – and influencing – stakeholders from private sectors, public policy and civil society. CASCADES will provide knowledge and tools to support policy and decision-making processes, thus helping Europe to strategically navigate a sustainable and resilient path through a rapidly changing, interconnected world.
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Vedi altri progetti per questo bandoBando secondario
H2020-LC-CLA-2018-2
Meccanismo di finanziamento
RIA - Research and Innovation actionCoordinatore
14473 Potsdam
Germania