Descripción del proyecto
Evaluación de la relación entre los efectos del cambio climático
Los efectos del cambio climático están interconectados; por ejemplo, la reducción de las cosechas en una parte del mundo supone una presión para personas de otras zonas, debido al mercado alimentario. El proyecto CASCADES, financiado con fondos europeos, se propone entender las condiciones que extienden los riesgos climáticos más allá de su ubicación geográfica, su sector o su momento en el tiempo, y que afectan a la estabilidad y cohesión de Europa. Su principal objetivo es identificar las medidas políticas que podrían utilizarse para que la Unión Europea se adaptara y respondiera a dichos riesgos climáticos interconectados. El proyecto pondrá en marcha diferentes metodologías: la modelización biofísica de los efectos climáticos, la modelización económica de redes financieras y comerciales, métodos de integración de datos, métodos cualitativos, como análisis de estudios de caso de puntos críticos y simulaciones de políticas relacionadas con los responsables de la toma de decisiones y operadores comerciales.
Objetivo
Climate change amplifies existing risks and vulnerabilities in a globalised world. New risks are also emerging from complex cross-sectoral and multi-dimensional interactions that aggregate gradually, and sometimes emerge abruptly. Recent examples of links between crop damage in Russia, international food prices and political instability in North Africa, as well as impact chains from drought, migration, civil unrest and war in the Middle East, demonstrate how climate-induced risks outside Europe can cascade and threaten Europe. CASCADES strives to understand the conditions under which climate risks propagate beyond their geographical and temporal location in ways that may affect European stability and cohesion. It does so via a broad 360° risk assessment and deeper thematic analyses of trade, value chain, financial and political connections between Europe and the rest of the world. CASCADES’ ambition is to identify the policy leverage points that can help the EU to adapt and respond to such cascading climate risks. CASCADES integrates a wide range of established and innovative methodologies – many of which have not been seriously applied to adaptation questions before – ranging from biophysical climate impact modelling, economic modelling of trade and financial networks, and data integration methods, to qualitative approaches including hotspot case study analysis original social science research and serious games. CASCADES combines leading expertise in climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, international trade and commodity flows, foreign policy and security, and finance and business, with deep knowledge and proven experience of co-creating with – and influencing – stakeholders from private sectors, public policy and civil society. CASCADES will provide knowledge and tools to support policy and decision-making processes, thus helping Europe to strategically navigate a sustainable and resilient path through a rapidly changing, interconnected world.
Palabras clave
Programa(s)
Convocatoria de propuestas
Consulte otros proyectos de esta convocatoriaConvocatoria de subcontratación
H2020-LC-CLA-2018-2
Régimen de financiación
RIA - Research and Innovation actionCoordinador
14473 Potsdam
Alemania