Description du projet
Évaluer les impacts interconnectés du changement climatique
Les impacts du changement climatique sont interconnectés. Par exemple, la réduction des rendements agricoles dans une partie du monde fait pression, par le biais des marchés alimentaires internationaux, sur les populations qui vivent ailleurs. Le projet CASCADES, financé par l’UE, cherche à comprendre les conditions dans lesquelles les risques climatiques se propagent au-delà de leur localisation géographique, sectorielle et temporelle de manière à affecter la stabilité et la cohésion européennes. Son principal objectif consiste à identifier les points de levier politiques qui peuvent aider l’UE à s’adapter et à répondre à ces risques climatiques en chaîne. Le projet mettra en œuvre différentes méthodologies, la modélisation des impacts climatiques biophysiques, la modélisation économique des réseaux commerciaux et financiers, les méthodes d’intégration des données, des approches qualitatives dont l’analyse de l’étude de cas des zones à risque et des simulations politiques impliquant des décideurs politiques et des exploitants d’entreprises.
Objectif
Climate change amplifies existing risks and vulnerabilities in a globalised world. New risks are also emerging from complex cross-sectoral and multi-dimensional interactions that aggregate gradually, and sometimes emerge abruptly. Recent examples of links between crop damage in Russia, international food prices and political instability in North Africa, as well as impact chains from drought, migration, civil unrest and war in the Middle East, demonstrate how climate-induced risks outside Europe can cascade and threaten Europe. CASCADES strives to understand the conditions under which climate risks propagate beyond their geographical and temporal location in ways that may affect European stability and cohesion. It does so via a broad 360° risk assessment and deeper thematic analyses of trade, value chain, financial and political connections between Europe and the rest of the world. CASCADES’ ambition is to identify the policy leverage points that can help the EU to adapt and respond to such cascading climate risks. CASCADES integrates a wide range of established and innovative methodologies – many of which have not been seriously applied to adaptation questions before – ranging from biophysical climate impact modelling, economic modelling of trade and financial networks, and data integration methods, to qualitative approaches including hotspot case study analysis original social science research and serious games. CASCADES combines leading expertise in climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, international trade and commodity flows, foreign policy and security, and finance and business, with deep knowledge and proven experience of co-creating with – and influencing – stakeholders from private sectors, public policy and civil society. CASCADES will provide knowledge and tools to support policy and decision-making processes, thus helping Europe to strategically navigate a sustainable and resilient path through a rapidly changing, interconnected world.
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RIA - Research and Innovation actionCoordinateur
14473 Potsdam
Allemagne