Tipping Points in the Earth System

Livrables

Website launch with public part for outreach and internal part for communication among partners and transparent consortium administration, setup appropriate software solution for webinars, make plan for delegating seminar planning and appointment of organizers and moderators. Webside will be continuous developed throughout the project lifetime (Task 8.4).

TiPES website

A website will be created by the project management. It will contain material for all addressees identified in the communication plan. A special focus will be on scientific material, briefs, and fact sheets addressed at policymakers. The website will also host publications and data for public use (Task 7.3)

D1.1: Open-access proxy data repository of tipping elements in past climates

We will provide a publically available online data repository containing available proxy records that evidence the temporal behavior of tipping elements in past climates. This repository will be accessible from the TiPES website, and linked with existing repositories such as Pangaea. The most accurate age models will be published alongside the respective records, and wherever possible, marker-based synchronizations between the different records will be provided (Task 1.1).

Data management plan
Data management plan evaluation

Linked to Task 83

State-dependence and spatial patterns of feedbacks

A review report will be compiled during the first year focusing on feedbacks in the climate system that will be addressed by TiPES Feedbacks will include those with an impact on the global mean temperature and those that may exhibit specific spatial patterns Task 41

Spatial patterns of the interrelations between different Tipping Elements

A report will be submitted on the spatial interaction patterns between the different tipping elements of the earth system that are evidenced in paleoclimatic records On this basis an assessment of cascading versus stabilizing effects of tippingelement interactions will be delivered Task 13

Mid-term report from scientific Advisory Board

Linked to Task 82

Tipping point report

A review report will be compiled during the first year derived from an expert public meeting focusing on tipping points that are addressed in TiPES It will form the basis for the first policy briefs and fact sheets produced by TiPES The document will be updated during TiPES M30 Task 72

Indian summer monsoon projections under regional and global forcings

Assessment report of the future Indian summer monsoon response to regional and global forcing scenarios based on a hierarchy of climate models This will include the definition of safe operating spaces excluding future dangerous conditions in the hydroclimatology of the region Task 33

Observable EWSs for AMOC collapse, suitable for use in a changing background climate

Report summarising studies with lowdimensional climate models and AOGCMs in which AMOC thresholds are naturally passed or artificially induced while the underlying climate is changing according to plausible IPCC scenarios The work will identify conditions under which the likelihood of tipping is increased early warning indicators and how these conditions depend on the magnitude and rate of underlying climate change Task 31

Communication plan

A communication plan will be developed that identifies the adressees in academia society and decision makers in the partner countries and the lists the communication instruments that the project will utilize at the level of partners workpagages and the project as a whole The plan will be circulated among the project partners and then published on the www and reviewed M30 Task 71

Domain-specific-language with basic notions about Tipping Points

With annotations examples of usage and relations and implementation in Idris It will be provided as a report containing the dictionary of notions formalised such as being compatible with computer language Idris or similar supported by a code library The report intends to function as a draft for a publication which can be circulated among partners for further feedback Task 61

Statistical toolbox to analyse tipping elements in proxy records

A statistical toolbox, written in the programming language Python, will be published on the open-access code platform GitHub, and linked to the TiPES website. This toolbox will allow to analyse records of tipping elements in past climates in terms of time series on common, absolute time scales, whilst keeping track of the associated uncertainties (Task 1.2).

Course on functional languages and to dependently typed languages

The course will be delivered by N. Botta at UCL after the recruitment is finalised. It takes the form of seminars with either slide or syllabus support (Task 6.1).

Modelling protocol for DO events for CMIP-PMIP

We will write suggested DO-modelling protocol, and liaise with CMIP-PMIP steering committee, to put appropriate protocol on the CMIP-PMIP website. This protocol will be published in a peer reviewed paper (T2.1).

Software package for linear response operators in climate models

A software package will be developed to construct linear response operators in different climate models. Based on our analysis of various models of intermediate to more sophisticated complexity (PlaSIM, Bern3D, HadCM3, EC-Earth, CESM) we will make available the analysis tools for extracting the linear response operator from climate models (Task 4.1).

Publications

Understanding AMOC stability: the North Atlantic Hosing Model Intercomparison Project

Auteurs: Laura C. Jackson, Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo, Katinka Bellomo, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Helmuth Haak, Aixue Hu, Johann Jungclaus, Warren Lee, Virna L. Meccia, Oleg Saenko, Andrew Shao, and Didier Swingedouw
Publié dans: Geosci. Model Dev., Numéro 6, 2023, Page(s) 1975–1995, ISSN 1991-959X
Éditeur: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-1975-2023

Internal multi-centennial variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation simulated by EC-Earth3

Auteurs: Virna L. Meccia, Ramón Fuentes-Franco, Paolo Davini, Katinka Bellomo, Federico Fabiano, Shuting Yang and Jost von Hardenberg
Publié dans: Climate Dynamics, Numéro 14320894, 2022, ISSN 1432-0894
Éditeur: Springer
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06534-4

Adaptive voter model on simplicial complexes.

Auteurs: Christian Kuehn; Leonhard Horstmeyer
Publié dans: Phys. Rev. E, Numéro 22, 2019, ISSN 1536-6065
Éditeur: American Physical Society
DOI: 10.1103/physreve.101.022305

Climate impacts of a substantial weakening of the AMOC over the Euro-Atlantic region in the EC-Earth3 climate model

Auteurs: Katinka Bellomo, Virna L. Meccia, Roberta D’Agostino, Federico Fabiano, Sarah M. Larson, Jost von Hardenberg & Susanna Corti
Publié dans: Climate Dynamics, 2023, ISSN 1432-0894
Éditeur: Copenicus
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-06754-2

Multi-centennial evolution of the climate response and deep ocean heat uptake in a set of abrupt stabilization scenarios with EC-Earth3

Auteurs: Federico Fabiano, Paolo Davini, Virna Meccia, Giuseppe Zappa, Alessio Bellucci, Valerio Lembo, Katinka Bellomo, and Susanna Corti
Publié dans: Earth System Dynamics, Numéro [accepted], 2023, ISSN 2190-4987
Éditeur: Copenicus
DOI: 10.5194/esd-2023-15

An astronomically dated record of Earth’s climate and its predictability over the last 66 million years

Auteurs: Thomas Westerhold, Norbert Marwan, Anna Joy Drury, Diederik Liebrand, Claudia Agnini, Eleni Anagnostou, James S. K. Barnet, Steven M. Bohaty, David De Vleeschouwer, Fabio Florindo, Thomas Frederichs, David A. Hodell, Ann E. Holbourn, Dick Kroon, Vittoria Lauretano, Kate Littler, Lucas J. Lourens, Mitchell Lyle, Heiko Pälike, Ursula Röhl, Jun Tian, Roy H. Wilkens, Paul A. Wilson, James C. Zachos
Publié dans: Science, Numéro 369/6509, 2020, Page(s) 1383-1387, ISSN 0036-8075
Éditeur: American Association for the Advancement of Science
DOI: 10.1126/science.aba6853

Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Auteurs: Peter D. Ditlevsen and Susanne Ditlevsen
Publié dans: Nature Communications, Numéro 14, 2023, Page(s) 4254, ISSN 2041-1723
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-39810-w

Theoretical and paleoclimatic evidence for abrupt transitions in the Earth system

Auteurs: Niklas Boers, Michael Ghil and Thomas F Stocker
Publié dans: Environ. Res. Lett., Numéro 17, 9, 2022, Page(s) 093006, ISSN 1748-9326
Éditeur: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac8944

The coupled ice sheet-Earth system model Bern3D v3. 0

Auteurs: Frerk Pöppelmeier, Fortunat Joos, and Thomas F. Stocker
Publié dans: Journal of Climate, 2023, Page(s) 1-39, ISSN 0894-8755
Éditeur: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0104.1

Robustness of competing climatic states

Auteurs: Ragon, Charline; Lembo, Valerio; Lucarini, Valerio; Vérard, Christian; Kasparian, Jérôme; Brunetti, Maura
Publié dans: Journal of Climate, Numéro 35(7), 2022, Page(s) 1-59, ISSN 1520-0442
Éditeur: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0148.1

Antarctic Ice Sheet elevation impacts on water isotope records during the Last Interglacial

Auteurs: Sentia Goursaud, Max Holloway, Louise Sime, Eric Wolff, Paul Valdes, Eric J. Steig, Andrew Pauling
Publié dans: Geophysical Research Letters, 2020, ISSN 0094-8276
Éditeur: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091412

Statistical estimation of global surface temperature response to forcing under the assumption of temporal scaling

Auteurs: Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, Sigrunn Holbek Sørbye, Hege-Beate Fredriksen, Håvard Rue, Martin Rypdal
Publié dans: Earth System Dynamics, Numéro 11/2, 2020, Page(s) 329-345, ISSN 2190-4987
Éditeur: EGU
DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-329-2020

Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Auteurs: Niklas Boers; Niklas Boers; Niklas Boers
Publié dans: Nature Climate Change, Numéro 11/12, 2021, ISSN 1758-6798
Éditeur: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01097-4

Meridional-energy-transport extremes and the general circulation of Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes: dominant weather regimes and preferred zonal wavenumbers

Auteurs: Valerio Lembo, Federico Fabiano, Vera Melinda Galfi, Rune Grand Graversen, Valerio Lucarini, and Gabriele Messori
Publié dans: Weather and Climate Dynamics, Numéro 3, 2022, Page(s) 1037–1062, ISSN 2698-4016
Éditeur: Göttingen Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-3-1037-2022

Sea-ice-free Arctic during the Last Interglacial supports fast future loss

Auteurs: Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Louise C. Sime, David Schröeder, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Erica Rosenblum, Mark Ringer, Jeff Ridley, Danny Feltham, Cecilia Bitz, Eric J. Steig, Eric Wolff, Julienne Stroeve, Alistair Sellar
Publié dans: Nature Climate Change, Numéro 10/10, 2020, Page(s) 928-932, ISSN 1758-678X
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0865-2

Time-scale synchronisation of oscillatory responses can lead to non-monotonous R-tipping

Auteurs: Swierczek-Jereczek, J., Montoya, M., Robinson, A., Alvarez-Solas, J., & Blasco, J
Publié dans: Scientific Reports, Numéro 13, 2023, Page(s) 2104, ISSN 2045-2322
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-28771-1

Response and Sensitivity Using Markov Chains

Auteurs: Manuel Santos Gutiérrez, Valerio Lucarini
Publié dans: Journal of Statistical Physics, Numéro 179/5-6, 2020, Page(s) 1572-1593, ISSN 0022-4715
Éditeur: Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers
DOI: 10.1007/s10955-020-02504-4

East Greenland ice core dust record reveals timing of Greenland ice sheet advance and retreat

Auteurs: Paul Vallelonga; Aslak Grinsted; Alejandra Borunda; Alejandra Borunda; Steven L. Goldstein; Steven L. Goldstein; Thomas Blunier; Marius Simonsen; Mai Winstrup; Diana Vladimirova; Helle Astrid Kjær; Bo M Vinther; Gisela Winckler; Gisela Winckler; Barbara Delmonte; Robert Frei; Anders Svensson; Giovanni Baccolo; Todd Sowers
Publié dans: Nature communications, Numéro 30, 2019, ISSN 2041-1723
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-12546-2

Normalized US hurricane damage estimates using area of total destruction, 1900−2018

Auteurs: Aslak Grinsted, Peter Ditlevsen, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen
Publié dans: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Numéro 116/48, 2019, Page(s) 23942-23946, ISSN 0027-8424
Éditeur: National Academy of Sciences
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1912277116

Reconstructing complex system dynamics from time series: a method comparison

Auteurs: Forough Hassanibesheli, Niklas Boers, Jürgen Kurths
Publié dans: New Journal of Physics, Numéro 22/7, 2020, Page(s) 073053, ISSN 1367-2630
Éditeur: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1367-2630/ab9ce5

Stable stadial and interstadial states of the last glacial's climate identified in a combined stable water isotope and dust record from Greenland

Auteurs: Keno Riechers, Leonardo Rydin Gorjão, Forough Hassanibesheli, Pedro G. Lind, Dirk Witthaut, and Niklas Boers
Publié dans: Earth System Dynamics, Numéro 14.3, 2023, Page(s) 593-607, ISSN 2190-4979
Éditeur: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH
DOI: 10.5194/esd-14-593-2023

Elliptic and Parabolic Boundary Value Problems in Weighted Function Spaces

Auteurs: Hummel, Felix; Lindemulder, Nick
Publié dans: Potential Analysis, Numéro 52, 2021, ISSN 1572-929X
Éditeur: Springer Nature B.V.
DOI: 10.1007/s11118-021-09929-w

Resilience of dynamical systems

Auteurs: Hana Krakovská, Christian Kuehn and Iacopo P. Longo
Publié dans: European Journal of Applied Mathematics, 2023, Page(s) 1-46, ISSN 1469-4425
Éditeur: Cambridge University Press
DOI: 10.1017/s0956792523000141

Canadian forest fires, Icelandic volcanoes and increased local dust observed in six shallow Greenland firn cores

Auteurs: Helle Astrid Kjær, Patrick Zens, Samuel Black, Kasper Holst Lund, Anders Svensson, and Paul Vallelonga
Publié dans: Climate of the Past, Numéro 18149324, 2022, Page(s) 2211-2230, ISSN 1814-9324
Éditeur: European Geosciences Union (EGU).
DOI: 10.5194/cp-18-2211-2022

Stabilization of cyclic processes by slowly varying forcing

Auteurs: J. Newman; M. Lucas; A. Stefanovska
Publié dans: Chaos, Numéro 31(12), 2021, ISSN 1089-7682
Éditeur: American Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1063/5.0066641

Quasipotentials for coupled escape problems and the gate-height bifurcation

Auteurs: Peter Ashwin; Jennifer Creaser; Krasimira Tsaneva-Atanasova
Publié dans: Crossref, Numéro 24, 2023, ISSN 0031-9007
Éditeur: American Physical Society
DOI: 10.1103/physreve.107.014213

Main controls on the stable carbon isotope composition of speleothems

Auteurs: Jens Fohlmeister, Ny Riavo G. Voarintsoa, Franziska A. Lechleitner, Meighan Boyd, Susanne Brandtstätter, Matthew J. Jacobson, Jessica L. Oster
Publié dans: Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, Numéro 279, 2020, Page(s) 67-87, ISSN 0016-7037
Éditeur: Pergamon Press Ltd.
DOI: 10.1016/j.gca.2020.03.042

Fragmented tipping in a spatially heterogeneous world

Auteurs: Robbin Bastiaansen, Henk A Dijkstra, Anna S von der Heydt
Publié dans: Environmental Research letters, Numéro 17 (4), 2022, ISSN 1748-9326
Éditeur: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac59a8

Simulating the Laurentide Ice Sheet of the Last Glacial Maximum

Auteurs: Daniel Moreno-Parada, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Javier Blasco, Marisa Montoya, & Alexander Robinson
Publié dans: The Cryosphere, Numéro 17, 2023, Page(s) 2139–2156, ISSN 1994-0424
Éditeur: Göttingen Copernicus Publ.
DOI: 10.5194/tc-17-2139-2023

A new mathematical framework for atmospheric blocking events

Auteurs: Valerio Lucarini, Andrey Gritsun
Publié dans: Climate Dynamics, Numéro 54/1-2, 2020, Page(s) 575-598, ISSN 0930-7575
Éditeur: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-05018-2

Comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core records

Auteurs: Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, Keno Riechers,Martin Wibe Rypdal, Niklas Boers
Publié dans: Climate of the past, Numéro 18, 6, 2022, Page(s) 1275-1294, ISSN 1814-9332
Éditeur: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022

An early-warning indicator for Amazon droughts exclusively based on tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures

Auteurs: Catrin Ciemer, Lars Rehm, Jürgen Kurths, Reik V Donner, Ricarda Winkelmann, Niklas Boers
Publié dans: Environmental Research Letters, Numéro 15/9, 2020, Page(s) 094087, ISSN 1748-9326
Éditeur: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab9cff

Towards neural Earth system modelling by integrating artificial intelligence in Earth system science

Auteurs: Christopher Irrgang; Niklas Boers; Niklas Boers; Niklas Boers; Maike Sonnewald; Maike Sonnewald; Maike Sonnewald; Elizabeth A. Barnes; Christopher Kadow; Joanna Staneva; Jan Saynisch-Wagner
Publié dans: Nature Machine Intelligence, Numéro 3, 2021, ISSN 2522-5839
Éditeur: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s42256-021-00374-3

Uncertainties in critical slowing down indicators of observation-based fingerprints of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation

Auteurs: Ben-Yami, Maya ; Skiba, Vanessa ; Bathiany, Sebastian ; Boers, Niklas
Publié dans: Nature communications, Numéro 14, 2023, Page(s) 8344, ISSN 2041-1723
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44046-9

On the correctness of monadic backward induction

Auteurs: Brede, Nuria; Botta, Nicola
Publié dans: Journal of Functional Programming, Numéro 31, 2021, ISSN 1469-7653
Éditeur: online
DOI: 10.1017/s0956796821000228

Significance of uncertain phasing between the onsets of stadial–interstadial transitions in different Greenland ice core proxies

Auteurs: Keno Riechers Niklas Boers
Publié dans: Climate of the past, 2021, ISSN 1814-9332
Éditeur: Göttingen Copernicus Publ.
DOI: 10.5194/cp-17-1751-2021

Climate-induced speleothem radiocarbon variability on Socotra Island from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Younger Dryas

Auteurs: Steffen Therre, Jens Fohlmeister, Dominik Fleitmann, Albert Matter, Stephen J. Burns, Jennifer Arps, Andrea Schröder-Ritzrau, Ronny Friedrich, Norbert Frank
Publié dans: Climate of the Past, Numéro 16/1, 2020, Page(s) 409-421, ISSN 1814-9332
Éditeur: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/cp-16-409-2020

Fingerprints for Early Detection of Changes in the AMOC

Auteurs: L. C. Jackson, R. A. Wood
Publié dans: Journal of Climate, Numéro 33/16, 2020, Page(s) 7027-7044, ISSN 0894-8755
Éditeur: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0034.1

Differentiable programming for Earth system modeling

Auteurs: Maximilian Gelbrecht, Alistair White, Sebastian Bathiany, and Niklas Boers
Publié dans: Geoscientific Model Development, Numéro 16,11, 2023, Page(s) 3123–3135, ISSN 1991-9603
Éditeur: Göttingen Copernicus Publ.
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-3123-2023

Overturning Pathways Control AMOC Weakening in CMIP6 Models

Auteurs: Jonathan A. Baker, Michael J. Bell, Laura C. Jackson, Richard Renshaw, Geoffrey K. Vallis, Andrew J. Watson, Richard A. Wood
Publié dans: geophysical Research Letters, Numéro 50, 14, 2023, Page(s) e2023GL103381, ISSN 0094-8276
Éditeur: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2023gl103381

Neural partial differential equations for chaotic systems

Auteurs: Maximilian Gelbrecht; Maximilian Gelbrecht; Maximilian Gelbrecht; Niklas Boers; Niklas Boers; Niklas Boers; Juergen Kurths; Juergen Kurths
Publié dans: New Journal of Physics, Numéro 12, 2021, ISSN 1367-2630
Éditeur: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.17169/refubium-30839

Resilient Antarctic monsoonal climate prevented ice growth during the Eocene

Auteurs: Michiel Baatsen, Peter Bijl, Anna von der Heydt, Appy Sluijs, and Henk Dijkstra
Publié dans: Climate of the Past, Numéro 20,1, 2024, Page(s) 77-90, ISSN 1814-9332
Éditeur: Göttingen Copernicus Publ.
DOI: 10.5194/cp-20-77-2024

Lévy noise versus Gaussian-noise-induced transitions in the Ghil–Sellers energy balance model

Auteurs: Valerio Lucarini, Larissa Serdukova, and Georgios Margazoglou
Publié dans: Nonlin. Processes Geophys., Numéro 16077946, 2022, Page(s) 183-205, ISSN 1607-7946
Éditeur: Copenicus Gesellschaft
DOI: 10.5194/npg-29-183-2022

Simulating AMOC tipping driven by internal climate variability with a rare event algorithm

Auteurs: Matteo Cini, Giuseppe Zappa, Francesco Ragone & Susanna Corti
Publié dans: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Numéro 7 (31), 2024, ISSN 2397-3722
Éditeur: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00568-7

A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127 ka: sea ice data compilation and model differences

Auteurs: Masa Kageyama, Louise C. Sime, Marie Sicard, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Anne de Vernal, Ruediger Stein, David Schroeder, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cecilia Bitz, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Jian Cao, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Danny Feltham, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-B
Publié dans: Climate of the Past, Numéro 17/1, 2021, Page(s) 37-62, ISSN 1814-9332
Éditeur: European geosciences union
DOI: 10.5194/cp-17-37-2021

Early-warning signals for Cenozoic climate transitions

Auteurs: Christopher Boettner, Georg Klinghammer, Niklas Boers, Thomas Westerhold, Norbert Marwan,
Publié dans: Quaternary Science Reviews, Numéro 270, 2021, ISSN 0277-3791
Éditeur: Pergamon Press Ltd.
DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.107177

The coupled system response to 250 years of freshwater forcing: Last Interglacial CMIP6–PMIP4 HadGEM3 simulations

Auteurs: Maria Vittoria Guarino, Louise C. Sime, Rachel Diamond, Jeff Ridley, and David Schroeder
Publié dans: Climate of the Past, Numéro 19, 2023, Page(s) 865–881, ISSN 1814-9324
Éditeur: European Geosciences Union (EGU).
DOI: 10.5194/cp-19-865-2023

Orbital insolation variations, intrinsic climate variability, and Quaternary glaciations

Auteurs: Keno Riechers, Takahito Mitsui, Niklas Boers, and Michael Ghil
Publié dans: Climate of the Past, Numéro 18, 2022, Page(s) 863-893, ISSN 1814-9324
Éditeur: European Geosciences Union (EGU).
DOI: 10.5194/cp-18-863-2022

On some aspects of the response to stochastic and deterministic forcings

Auteurs: Gutiérrez, Manuel Santos, and Valerio Lucarini.
Publié dans: Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical, Numéro 55.42, 2022, Page(s) 425002, ISSN 1751-8121
Éditeur: IOPScience
DOI: 10.1088/1751-8121/ac90fd

"""Rate-induced tipping: thresholds, edge states and connecting orbits"

Auteurs: Wieczorek, Sebastian, Chun Xie, and Peter Ashwin.
Publié dans: Nonlinearity, Numéro 36.6, 2023, Page(s) 3238, ISSN 1361-6544
Éditeur: IOP Science
DOI: 10.1088/1361-6544/accb37

Warning signs for non-Markovian bifurcations: colour blindness and scaling laws

Auteurs: Kuehn, Christian; Lux, Kerstin; Neamtu, Alexandra
Publié dans: Proceedings of the Royal Academy A, Numéro 8/12, 2022, ISSN 1471-2946
Éditeur: The Royal Society
DOI: 10.1098/rspa.2021.0740

The Pleistocene Glacial Cycles and Millennial-Scale Climate Variability

Auteurs: Peter Ditelvsen
Publié dans: Atmosphere-Ocean, Numéro 60:3-4, 2022, Page(s) 233-244, ISSN 1480-9214
Éditeur: Taylor and Francis Ltd.
DOI: 10.1080/07055900.2022.2077172

Seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon onset with echo state networks.

Auteurs: Mitsui, T., Boers, N.
Publié dans: Environmental research letters, Numéro 16, 2021, Page(s) 074024, ISSN 1748-9326
Éditeur: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac0acb

Ice core evidence for major volcanic eruptions at the onset of Dansgaard–Oeschger warming events

Auteurs: Johannes Lohmann and Anders Svensson
Publié dans: Climate of the Past, Numéro 18, 2022, Page(s) 2021-2043, ISSN 1814-9332
Éditeur: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/cp-18-2021-2022

Exploring the impact of atmospheric forcing and basal drag on the Antarctic Ice Sheet under Last Glacial Maximum conditions

Auteurs: Javier Blasco, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya
Publié dans: The Cryosphere, Numéro 15/1, 2021, Page(s) 215-231, ISSN 1994-0424
Éditeur: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-215-2021

Effect of orographic gravity wave drag on Northern Hemisphere climate in transient simulations of the last deglaciation

Auteurs: Brooke Snoll, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Paul J. Valdes, Amanda C. Maycock, Lauren J. Gregoire
Publié dans: Climate dynamics, 2022, ISSN 0930-7575
Éditeur: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06196-2

Lost options commitment: how short-term policies affect long-term scope of action

Auteurs: Marina Martínez Montero, Nuria Brede, Victor Couplet, Michel Crucifix, Nicola Botta, Claudia Wienerse
Publié dans: Oxford open climate change, 2024, Page(s) kgae004, ISSN 2634-4068
Éditeur: Oxford University Press
DOI: 10.1093/oxfclm/kgae004

Reversibility of Greenland ice sheet mass loss under artificial carbon dioxide removal scenarios

Auteurs: Höning, Dennis, Matteo Willeit, and Andrey Ganopolski
Publié dans: Environmental Research Letters, 2024, ISSN 1748-9326
Éditeur: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad2129

Role of mineral dust in the nitrate preservation during the glacial period: Insights from the RICE ice core

Auteurs: Abhijith U.Venugopala Nancy A.N.Bertler Rebecca L.Pyne Helle A.Kjær V. Holly L.Winton Paul A.Mayewski Giuseppe Cortesea
Publié dans: Global and Planetary change, 2022, ISSN 0921-8181
Éditeur: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103745

Atmospheric CO2 control of spontaneous millennial-scale ice age climate oscillations

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The Significance of the Melt-Pond Scheme in a CMIP6 Global Climate Model

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Global oscillatory modes in high-end climate modeling and reanalyses

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Probabilistic measures for biological adaptation and resilience

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Influence of Elevated Nd Fluxes on the Northern Nd Isotope End Member of the Atlantic During the Early Holocene

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Responsibility Under Uncertainty: Which Climate Decisions Matter Most?

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Fingerprinting Heatwaves and Cold Spells and Assessing Their Response to Climate Change Using Large Deviation Theory

Auteurs: Vera Melinda Galfi; Valerio Lucarini
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Distinguishing between deterministic oscillations and noise

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Response theory and phase transitions for the thermodynamic limit of interacting identical systems

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Melt in the Greenland EastGRIP ice core reveals Holocene warm events

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Glacial Abrupt Climate Change as a Multiscale Phenomenon Resulting from Monostable Excitable Dynamics

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Tipping points induced by parameter drift in an excitable ocean model

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The Effect of Past Saturation Changes on Noble Gas Reconstructions of Mean Ocean Temperature

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Latitudinal storm track shift in a reduced two-level model of the atmosphere

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Paleoclimate-conditioning reveals a North Africa land–atmosphere tipping point

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Reduction methods in climate dynamics—A brief review

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Arnold Maps with Noise: Differentiability and Non-monotonicity of the Rotation Number

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Ensemble Oscillation Correction (EnOC): Leveraging Oscillatory Modes to Improve Forecasts of Chaotic Systems

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Rough basin boundaries in high dimension: Can we classify them experimentally?

Auteurs: Tamás Bódai, Valerio Lucarini
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Climate and structure of the 8.2 ka event reconstructed from three speleothems from Germany

Auteurs: Sarah Waltgenbach, Denis Scholz, Christoph Spötl, Dana F.C. Riechelmann, Klaus P. Jochum, Jens Fohlmeister, Andrea Schröder-Ritzrau
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Applications of large deviation theory in geophysical fluid dynamics and climate science

Auteurs: Vera Melinda Gálfi, Valerio Lucarini, Francesco Ragone, Jeroen Wouters
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Rough Center Manifolds

Auteurs: Alexandra Neamţu; Christian Kuehn
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Complex systems approaches for Earth system data analysis

Auteurs: Niklas Boers, Jürgen Kurths, Norbert Marwan
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Homogenization of Fully-Coupled Chaotic Fast-Slow Systems via Intermediate Stochastic Regularization

Auteurs: Engel, Maximilian; Gkogkas, Marios-Antonios; Kuehn, Christian
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Network dynamics on graphops

Auteurs: Christian Kuehn
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Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review

Auteurs: Nico Wunderling, Anna S. von der Heydt, Yevgeny Aksenov, Stephen Barker, Robbin Bastiaansen, Victor Brovkin, Maura Brunetti, Victor Couplet, Thomas Kleinen, Caroline H. Lear, Johannes Lohmann, Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta, Sacha Sinet, Didier Swingedouw, Ricarda Winkelmann, Pallavi Anand, Jonathan Barichivich, Sebastian Bathiany, Mara Baudena, John T. Bruun, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Helen K. Coxall, David
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Event synchrony measures for functional climate network analysis: A case study on South American rainfall dynamics

Auteurs: Frederik Wolf, Jurek Bauer, Niklas Boers, Reik V. Donner
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Analysis of a bistable climate toy model with physics-based machine learning methods

Auteurs: Maximilian Gelbrecht, Valerio Lucarini, Niklas Boers, Jürgen Kurths
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Chameleon attractors in turbulent flows

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Extreme cold events in Europe under a reduced AMOC

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Sample Paths Estimates for Stochastic Fast-Slow Systems Driven by Fractional Brownian Motion

Auteurs: Katharina Eichinger, Christian Kuehn, Alexandra Neamţu
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Limited Retreat of the Wilkes Basin Ice Sheet During the Last Interglacial

Auteurs: J. Sutter, O. Eisen, M. Werner, K. Grosfeld, T. Kleiner, H. Fischer
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Can we use linear response theory to assess geoengineering strategies?

Auteurs: Tamás Bódai, Valerio Lucarini, Frank Lunkeit
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Assessing the impact of parametric uncertainty on tipping points of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Auteurs: Kerstin Lux, Peter Ashwin, Richard Wood and Christian Kuehn
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Éditeur: Institute of Physics Publishing
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Asymptotic behavior of the forecast–assimilation process with unstable dynamics

Auteurs: Dan Crisan and Michael Ghil
Publié dans: Chaos, Numéro 33, 2023, Page(s) 023139, ISSN 1054-1500
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Existence and influence of mixed states in a model of vegetation patterns

Auteurs: Lilian Vanderveken, Marina Martínez Montero, and Michel Crucifix
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Estimating Remaining Carbon Budgets Using Temperature Responses Informed by CMIP6

Auteurs: Martin Rypdal, Niklas Boers, Hege-Beate Fredriksen, Kai-Uwe Eiselt, Andreas Johansen, Andreas Martinsen, Endre Falck Mentzoni, Rune G. Graversen and Kristoffer Rypdal
Publié dans: Frontiers in Climate, 2021, ISSN 2624-9553
Éditeur: Lausanne Frontiers Media SA
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The physics of climate variability and climate change

Auteurs: Michael Ghil, Valerio Lucarini
Publié dans: Reviews of Modern Physics, Numéro 92/3, 2020, ISSN 0034-6861
Éditeur: American Physical Society
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Dansgaard–Oeschger-like events of the penultimate climate cycle: the loess point of view

Auteurs: Denis-Didier Rousseau, Pierre Antoine, Niklas Boers, France Lagroix, Michael Ghil, Johanna Lomax, Markus Fuchs, Maxime Debret, Christine Hatté, Olivier Moine, Caroline Gauthier, Diana Jordanova, Neli Jordanova
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Changes in Local and Global Climate Feedbacks in the Absence of Interactive Clouds: Southern Ocean–Climate Interactions in Two Intermediate-Complexity Models

Auteurs: Patrik L. Pfister, Thomas F. Stocker
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Multistability and Transient Response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions

Auteurs: Dennis Höning, Matteo Willeit, Reinhard Calov, Volker Klemann, Meike Bagge, Andrey Ganopolski
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A punctuated equilibrium analysis of the climate evolution of cenozoic exhibits a hierarchy of abrupt transitions

Auteurs: Denis-Didier Rousseau, Witold Bagniewski & Valerio Lucarini
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Robustness of precipitation Emergent Constraints in CMIP6 models

Auteurs: Olivia Ferguglia, Jost von Hardenberg and Elisa Palazzi
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A potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may stabilise eastern Amazonian rainforests

Auteurs: Da Nian, Sebastian Bathiany, Maya Ben-Yami, Lana L. Blaschke, Marina Hirota, Regina R. Rodrigues & Niklas Boers
Publié dans: Communications Earth & Environment, Numéro 4, 470, 2023, ISSN 2662-4435
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Numerical continuation for a fast-reaction system and its cross-diffusion limit

Auteurs: Christian Kuehn, Cinzia Soresina
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Destabilisation of the Subpolar North Atlantic prior to the Little Ice Age

Auteurs: Beatriz Arellano-Nava, Paul R. Halloran, Chris A. Boulton, James Scourse, Paul G. Butler, David J. Reynolds and Timothy M. Lenton
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Identifying the Mechanisms of DO-scale Oscillations in a Gcm: a Salt Oscillator Triggered by the Laurentide Ice Sheet

Auteurs: Edward M. Armstrong; Kenji Izumi; Paul Valdes
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Antarctic evidence for an abrupt northward shift of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies at 32 ka BP

Auteurs: Abhijith U. Venugopal, Nancy A. N. Bertler, Jeffrey P. Severinghaus, Edward J. Brook, Giuseppe Cortese, James E. Lee, Thomas Blunier, Paul A. Mayewski, Helle A. Kjær, Lionel Carter, Michael E. Weber, Richard H. Levy, Rebecca L. Pyne & Marcus J. Vandergoes
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Noise-driven topological changes in chaotic dynamics

Auteurs: Gisela D. Charó; Gisela D. Charó; Mickaël D. Chekroun; Denisse Sciamarella; Denisse Sciamarella; Michael Ghil; Michael Ghil
Publié dans: Chaos, Numéro 31(10), 2021, ISSN 1089-7682
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Dynamical landscape and multistability of a climate model

Auteurs: Georgios Margazoglou, Tobias Grafke, Alessandro Laio, Valerio Lucarini
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Intermittent phase dynamics of non-autonomous oscillators through time-varying phase

Auteurs: Joseph P. Scott, Julian Newman, Joe Rowland Adams, & Aneta Stefanovska
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How might a collapse in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation affect rainfall over tropical South America

Auteurs: Peter Good, Niklas Boers, Chris A. Boulton, Jason A. Lowe, Ingo Richter
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Estimating rate-induced tipping via asymptotic series and a Melnikov-like method

Auteurs: Christian Kuehn, Iacopo P. Longo
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Review article: Hilbert problems for the climate sciences in the 21st century – 20 years later

Auteurs: Michael Ghil
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Physical measures of asymptotically autonomous dynamical systems

Auteurs: Julian Newman and Peter Ashwin
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Typicality of the 2021 Western North America summer heatwave

Auteurs: Valerio Lucarini, Vera Melinda Galfi, Jacopo Riboldi and Gabriele Messori
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Boundary value problems of elliptic and parabolic type with boundary data of negative regularity

Auteurs: Felix Hummel
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Interrupting vaccination policies can greatly spread SARS-CoV-2 and enhance mortality from COVID-19 disease: The AstraZeneca case for France and Italy

Auteurs: Davide Faranda, Tommaso Alberti, Maxence Arutkin, Valerio Lembo, Valerio Lucarini
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A universal route to explosive phenomena.

Auteurs: Christian Kuehn; Christian Bick
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Critical slowing down suggests that the western Greenland Ice Sheet is close to a tipping point

Auteurs: Niklas Boers, Martin Rypdal
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How dusty was the last glacial maximum over Europe?

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A Data-Based Minimal Model of Episodic Inflation Events at Volcanoes

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Multivariate Estimations of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity From Short Transient Warming Simulations

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Crossover and peaks in the Pleistocene climate spectrum; understanding from simple ice age models

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Impact of an AMOC weakening on the stability of the southern Amazon rainforest

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Abrupt climate changes and the astronomical theory: are they related?

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Machine learning approach reveals strong link between obliquity amplitude increase and the Mid-Brunhes transition

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Evaluating the Performance of Climate Models Based on Wasserstein Distance

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Reliability of vegetation resilience estimates depends on biomass density

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A Multi-Model Ensemble Kalman Filter for Data Assimilation and Forecasting

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Pronounced loss of Amazon rainforest resilience since the early 2000s

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Extratropical Low‐Frequency Variability With ENSO Forcing: A Reduced‐Order Coupled Model Study

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Stochastic Parameterizations and the Climate Response to External Forcing: An Experiment With EC‐Earth

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Theoretical tools for understanding the climate crisis from Hasselmann's programme and beyond

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Introduction to the Special Issue on the Statistical Mechanics of Climate

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Critical transitions for scalar nonautonomous systems with concave nonlinearities: some rigorous estimates

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Sea ice feedbacks influence the isotopic signature of Greenland ice sheet elevation changes: last interglacial HadCM3 simulations

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Evaporative controls on Antarctic precipitation: an ECHAM6 model study using innovative water tracer diagnostics

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Analysis of a two-layer energy balance model: Long time behavior and greenhouse effect

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Future climate change shaped by inter-model differences in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation response

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An annually resolved chronology for the Mount Brown South ice cores, East Antarctica

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Green Sahara tipping points in transient climate model simulations of the Holocene

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Projections of the Transient State-Dependency of Climate Feedbacks

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Sample paths of white noise in spaces with dominating mixed smoothness

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Bipolar volcanic synchronization of abrupt climate change in Greenland and Antarctic ice cores during the last glacial period

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Coupled Climate-Economy-Ecology (CoCEB) Modeling: A Dynamic Approach

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State-dependent impact of major volcanic eruptions observed in ice-core records of the last glacial period

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Eddy saturation in a reduced two-level model of the atmosphere

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Mechanics and thermodynamics of a new minimal model of the atmosphere

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Numerical continuation for fractional PDEs: sharp teeth and bloated snakes

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Empirical evidence for recent global declines in vegetation resilience

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Heterogeneity of the attractor of the Lorenz ’96 model: Lyapunov analysis, unstable periodic orbits, and shadowing properties

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A Random Dynamical Systems Perspective on Isochronicity for Stochastic Oscillations

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Neodymium isotopes as a paleo-water mass tracer: A model-data reassessment

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Holocene climate forcings and lacustrine regime shifts in the Indian summer monsoon realm

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Impacts of the PMIP4 ice sheets on Northern Hemisphere climate during the last glacial period

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Decomposing the dynamics of the Lorenz 1963 model using unstable periodic orbits: Averages, transitions, and quasi-invariant sets

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SURFER v2.0: a flexible and simple model linking anthropogenic CO2 emissions and solar radiation modification to ocean acidification and sea level rise

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Synchronization phenomena observed in glacial–interglacial cycles simulated in an Earth system model of intermediate complexity

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Extreme Sensitivity and Climate Tipping Points

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Publié dans: Journal of Statistical Physics, Numéro 179/5-6, 2020, Page(s) 1531-1552, ISSN 0022-4715
Éditeur: Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers
DOI: 10.1007/s10955-019-02425-x

Climate intervention on a high-emissions pathway could delay but not prevent West Antarctic Ice Sheet demise

Auteurs: J. Sutter, A. Jones, T. L. Frölicher, C. Wirths & T. F. Stocker
Publié dans: Nature Climate Change, 2023, ISSN 1758-678X
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01738-w

Detection of abrupt changes in East Asian monsoon from Chinese loess and speleothem records

Auteurs: Denis-Didier Rousseau, Witold Bagniewski, Youbin Sun
Publié dans: Global and Planetary Change, Numéro 227, 2023, Page(s) 104154, ISSN 0921-8181
Éditeur: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104154

The South American monsoon approaches a critical transition in response to deforestation

Auteurs: Nils Bochow and Niklas Boers
Publié dans: science advances, Numéro 9 (40), 2023, ISSN 2375-2548
Éditeur: Science Advances
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.add9973

Slow manifolds for infinite-dimensional evolution equations

Auteurs: Felix Hummel and Chrsitian Kuehn
Publié dans: Commentarii Mathematici Helvetici, Numéro 14208946, 2022, Page(s) 61-132, ISSN 1420-8946
Éditeur: Swiss Mathematical Society
DOI: 10.4171/cmh/527

Predictors and predictands of linear response in spatially extended systems

Auteurs: Umberto Maria Tomasini, Valerio Lucarini
Publié dans: The European Physical Journal Special Topics, 2021, ISSN 1951-6355
Éditeur: EDP Sciences
DOI: 10.1140/epjs/s11734-021-00158-1

Model-Data Comparison of Antarctic Winter Sea-Ice Extent and Southern Ocean Sea-Surface Temperatures During Marine Isotope Stage 5e

Auteurs: M. Chadwick, L. C. Sime, C. S. Allen, M.-V. Guarino
Publié dans: Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, Numéro 38, 6, 2023, Page(s) e2022PA004600, ISSN 2572-4525
Éditeur: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
DOI: 10.1029/2022pa004600

Global stability properties of the climate: Melancholia states, invariant measures, and phase transitions

Auteurs: Valerio Lucarini, Tamás Bódai
Publié dans: Nonlinearity, Numéro 33/9, 2020, Page(s) R59-R92, ISSN 0951-7715
Éditeur: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1361-6544/ab86cc

Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction

Auteurs: Simon L. L. Michel, Didier Swingedouw, Pablo Ortega, Guillaume Gastineau, Juliette Mignot, Gerard McCarthy, Myriam Khodri
Publié dans: Nature communications, Numéro 5176, 2022, ISSN 2041-1723
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-32704-3

Beyond Forcing Scenarios: Predicting Climate Change through Response Operators in a Coupled General Circulation Model.

Auteurs: Valerio Lucarini; Valerio Lucarini; Valerio Lembo; Francesco Ragone
Publié dans: Scientific Reports, Vol 10, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2020), Numéro 18, 2020, ISSN 2045-2322
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-65297-2

Multistability and intermediate tipping of the Atlantic Ocean circulation

Auteurs: Johannes Lohmann; Henk A. Dijkstra; Markus Jochum; Valerio Lucarini; Peter D. Ditlevsen
Publié dans: SCIENCE ADVANCES, Numéro 10, 12, 2024, ISSN 2375-2548
Éditeur: American Association for the Advancement of Science
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adi4253

Dansgaard–Oeschger events in climate models: review and baseline Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3) protocol

Auteurs: Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Louise C. Sime, and the D–O community members
Publié dans: Climate of the Past, Numéro 19, 2023, Page(s) 915–942, ISSN 1814-9324
Éditeur: European Geosciences Union (EGU).
DOI: 10.5194/cp-19-915-2023

The PaleoJump database for abrupt transitions in past climates

Auteurs: Witold Bagniewski, Michael Ghil & Denis-Didier Rousseau
Publié dans: Sci Rep, Numéro 13, 2023, Page(s) 4472, ISSN 2045-2322
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-30592-1

Reconstructing Historical Climate Fields With Deep Learning

Auteurs: Nils Bochow, Anna Poltronieri, Martin Rypdal, Niklas Boers
Publié dans: arXiv, Numéro [preprint], 2023
Éditeur: arXiv
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2311.18348

Persistent synchronization of heterogeneous networks with time-dependent linear diffusive coupling

Auteurs: Jardón-Kojakhmetov, Hildeberto ; Kuehn, Christian ; Longo, Iacopo P.
Publié dans: ArXiv, Numéro [prerint], 2023
Éditeur: Cornell University
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2305.05747

Anticipating critical transitions in multi-dimensional systems driven by time- and state-dependent noise

Auteurs: Andreas Morr, Keno Riechers, Leonardo Rydin Gorjão, Niklas Boers
Publié dans: arXiv, Numéro [preprint], 2023
Éditeur: ArXiv
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2308.16773

Tipping Point Detection and Early-Warnings in climate, ecological, and human systems

Auteurs: Vasilis Dakos, Chris A. Boulton, Josh E. Buxton, Jesse F. Abrams, David I. Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Lana Blaschke, Niklas Boers, Daniel Dylewsky, Carlos López-Martínez, Isobel Parry, Paul Ritchie, Bregje van der Bolt, Larissa van der Laan, Els Weinans, and Sonia Kéfi
Publié dans: EGUSphere, Numéro [preprint], 2023
Éditeur: Copenicus
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-1773

Detecting and Attributing Change in Climate and Complex Systems: Foundations, Kolmogorov Modes, and Nonlinear Fingerprints

Auteurs: Valerio Lucarini, Mickaël Chekroun
Publié dans: arXiV, Numéro [preprint], 2023
Éditeur: Cornell University
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2212.02628

The influence of present-day regional surface mass balance uncertainties on the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Auteurs: Christian Wirths, Johannes Sutter, and Thomas Stocker
Publié dans: EGUsphere, Numéro [preprint], 2023
Éditeur: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-2233

Spatial correlation increase in single-sensor satellite data reveals loss of Amazon rainforest resilience

Auteurs: Lana L. Blaschke, Da Nian, Bathiany, Maya Ben-Yami, Taylor Smith, Chris A. Boulton, Niklas Boers
Publié dans: arXiv, Numéro [preprint], 2023
Éditeur: Cornell University
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2310.18540

The Temporal Phasing of Rapid Dansgaard–Oeschger Warming Events Cannot Be Reliably Determined

Auteurs: John Slattery, Louise C. Sime, Francesco Muschitiello, and Keno Riechers
Publié dans: Climate of the Past discussions, Numéro [in review], 2023, ISSN 1814-9324
Éditeur: European Geosciences Union (EGU).
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-2496

Description and validation of the ice sheet model Nix v1.0

Auteurs: Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya, and Jorge Alvarez-Solas
Publié dans: EGUSphere, Numéro [preprint], 2023
Éditeur: Copenicus
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-2690

Types, equations, dimensions and the Pi theorem

Auteurs: Nicola Botta, Patrik Jansson, Guilherme Horta Alvares Da Silva
Publié dans: arXiv, Numéro [preprint], 2023
Éditeur: Cornell university
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2308.09481

Rainfall Seasonality Dominates Critical Precipitation Threshold for the Amazon Forest in the Lpjml Vegetation Model

Auteurs: NIAN, DA and Bathiany, Sebastian and Sakschewski, Boris and Drüke, Markus and Blaschke, Lana and Ben-Yami, Maya and von Bloh, Werner and Boers, Niklas
Publié dans: SSRN, Numéro [preprint], 2023
Éditeur: SSRN
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.4658035

Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations

Auteurs: Sina Loriani, Yevgeny Aksenov, David Armstrong McKay, Govindasamy Bala, Andreas Born, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Henk Dijkstra, Jonathan F. Donges, Sybren Drijfhout, Matthew H. England, Alexey V. Fedorov, Laura Jackson, Kai Kornhuber, Gabriele Messori, Francesco Pausata, Stefanie Rynders, Jean-Baptiste Salée, Bablu Sinha, Steven Sherwood, Didier Swingedouw, and Thejna Tharammal
Publié dans: Erath system Dynamics, Numéro [preprint], 2023
Éditeur: Copenicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-2589

A strategy to compute convective timescales of the Indian monsoon with the WRF model

Auteurs: Lucy G. Recchia, Valerio Lucarini
Publié dans: arXiv, Numéro [preprint], 2023
Éditeur: ArXiV
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2310.15871

Saddle avoidance of noise-induced transitions in multiscale systems

Auteurs: Reyk Börner, Ryan Deeley, Raphael Römer, Tobias Grafke, Valerio Lucarini, Ulrike Feudel
Publié dans: arXiv, Numéro [preprint], 2023
Éditeur: Cornell University
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2311.10231

Crossing planetary boundaries could lead to Hothouse Earth

Auteurs: Erik Chavez, Michael Ghil, Jan Rombouts
Publié dans: https://www.researchsquare.com/, Numéro [preprint], 2024
Éditeur: https://www.researchsquare.com/
DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3870378/v1

Internal noise interference in anticipation of tipping points of generic multi-dimensional dynamical systems

Auteurs: Andreas Morr, Niklas Boers and Peter Ashwin
Publié dans: arXiv, Numéro [preprint], 2023
Éditeur: Cornell University
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2311.18597

Dimensional analysis identifies contrasting dynamics of past climate states and critical transitions

Auteurs: Tommaso Alberti, Fabio Florindo, Eelco J. Rohling, Valerio Lucarini, Davide Faranda
Publié dans: arXiv, Numéro [preprint], 2023
Éditeur: ArXiV
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2309.12693

Agnostic detection of large-scale weather patterns in the northern hemisphere: from blockings to teleconnections

Auteurs: Sebastian Springer, Vera Melinda Galfi, Alessandro Laio, Valerio Lucarini
Publié dans: arXiv, Numéro [preprint], 2023
Éditeur: arXiv
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2309.06833

Climate sensitivity, commitment and abrupt change: toward an ontology for climate tipping point research

Auteurs: Botta, Nicola; Brede, Nuria; Crucifix, Michel; Marina Martínez Montero
Publié dans: 2022
Éditeur: TiPES
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.6820683

Winter Euro-Atlantic blocking activity less sensitive to climate change than previously evaluated

Auteurs: Simon L. L. Michel, Anna S. von der Heydt, Henk A. Dijkstra
Publié dans: ESS Open Archive, Numéro [preprint], 2023
Éditeur: Authorea.com
DOI: 10.22541/essoar.168839598.85584521/v1

Decoupling of δ18O from surface temperature in Antarctica in an ensemble of Historical simulations

Auteurs: Sentia Oger, Louise Sime, and Max Holloway
Publié dans: EGUsphere, Numéro [preprint], 2023
Éditeur: Copenicus
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-2735

Deep learning reconstruction of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation strength validates ongoig twenty-first century decline

Auteurs: Simon Michel, Henk Dijkstra, Francesco Guardamagna, Valérian Jacques-Dumas, René van Westen, Anna von der Heydt
Publié dans: Research Square, Numéro [preprint], 2023
Éditeur: https://www.researchsquare.com/
DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3377545/v1

A DSL for Monadic Decision Problems, Responsibility under Uncertainty and Tipping Point Notions

Auteurs: Botta, Nicola; Brede, Nuria; Crucifix, Michel; Martínez Montero, Marina
Publié dans: 2022
Éditeur: TiPES
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.6820605

On the periodicity of free oscillations for a finite ice column

Auteurs: Daniel Moreno, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya, and Jorge Alvarez-Solas
Publié dans: The Cryosphere Discuss. [preprint], Numéro in review, 2022, ISSN 1994-0440
Éditeur: Copenicus
DOI: 10.5194/tc-2022-97

Antarctic Tipping points triggered by the mid-Pliocene warm climate

Auteurs: Javier Blasco, Ilaria Tabone, Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Frank Pattyn, and Marisa Montoya
Publié dans: Climateof the Past Discussions, Numéro [preprint], 2023, ISSN 1814-9324
Éditeur: European Geosciences Union (EGU).
DOI: 10.5194/cp-2023-76

Looking to the (far) future of climate projection.

Auteurs: Chris A. Boulton
Publié dans: Global Change Biology, Numéro 7, 2022, ISSN 1354-1013
Éditeur: Blackwell Publishing Inc.
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15936

A Climate Science Toolkit for High Impact-Low Likelihood Climate Risks

Auteurs: Richard A. Wood, Michel Crucifix, Timothy M. Lenton, Katharine J. Mach, Crystal Moore, Mark New, Simon Sharpe, Thomas F. Stocker, Rowan T. Sutton
Publié dans: Erath's Future, Numéro 11, 4, 2023, Page(s) e2022EF003369, ISSN 2328-4277
Éditeur: John Wiley & Sons
DOI: 10.1029/2022ef003369

Limits to predictability of the asymptotic state of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a conceptual climate model

Auteurs: Mehling, Oliver, Reyk Börner, and Valerio Lucarini
Publié dans: Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, Numéro 134043, 2023, ISSN 0167-2789
Éditeur: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.physd.2023.134043

Can the Miocene climate inform the future?

Auteurs: Anna von der Heydt
Publié dans: Science, Numéro 377, 6601, 2022, Page(s) 26-27, ISSN 0036-8075
Éditeur: American Association for the Advancement of Science
DOI: 10.1126/science.abq6542

Climate, zoonosis, and interdisciplinarity

Auteurs: Michael Ghil
Publié dans: PNAS, Numéro 120 (39), 2023, Page(s) e2311575120, ISSN 0027-8424
Éditeur: National Academy of Sciences
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2311575120

Bifurcation Analysis of Systems With Delays: Methods and Their Use in Applications

Auteurs: Bernd Krauskopf and Jan Sieber
Publié dans: Controlling Delayed Dynamics. CISM International Centre for Mechanical Sciences, Numéro vol 604., 2022, ISBN 978-3-031-01129-0
Éditeur: Springer, Cham.
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-01129-0_7

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Nonautonomous Dynamical Systems, and the Climate Sciences

Auteurs: Michael Ghil, Eric Simonnet
Publié dans: Mathematical Approach to Climate Change and its Impacts - MAC2I, Numéro 38, 2020, Page(s) 3-81, ISBN 978-3-030-38668-9
Éditeur: Springer International Publishing
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-38669-6_1

Coupled Climate-Economy-Ecology-Biosphere Modeling: A Dynamic and Stochastic Approach

Auteurs: Ogutu, K.B.Z., D’Andrea, F., Groth, A., Ghil, M
Publié dans: Handbook of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation, 2022, Page(s) 225-287, ISBN 978-3-030-72579-2
Éditeur: Springer, Cham
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-72579-2_103

An ice-core perspective

Auteurs: Sune Olander Rasmussen
Publié dans: Abrupt Climate Change, Numéro 1, 2020, ISBN 978-87-93604-86-5
Éditeur: Strandberg publishing

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