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Tipping Points in the Earth System

Livrables

Update on state-dependence and spatial patterns of feedbacks

The review report from D.4.1 will be updated.The document will be updated during TiPES and include newly developed metrics of climate response at the end of T4.1 (Task 4.1).

Ice-sheet thresholds and improved sea-level rise projections

Report on paleo-constrained long-term (from centuries to tens of millennia) ice-sheet projections, including the identification of critical thresholds for irreversible melt-back of the ice sheets in terms of global temperature anomaly and CO2 concentration, as well as improved future sea level rise projections (Task 3.5).

State-dependence and spatial patterns of feedbacks

A review report will be compiled during the first year focusing on feedbacks in the climate system that will be addressed by TiPES Feedbacks will include those with an impact on the global mean temperature and those that may exhibit specific spatial patterns Task 41

AMOC thresholds in CMIP7

Report summarizing recent developments to climate models that are likely to impact on their simulation of AMOC thresholds, on the timescale of CMIP7/IPCC AR7 and beyond. Likely model developments include eddy-resolving ocean resolution and improved treatments of dense overflow waters. Expected to include an assessment of the impact of the model developments on the specific early warning indicators developed earlier in TiPES (Task 3.1).

Spatial patterns of the interrelations between different Tipping Elements

A report will be submitted on the spatial interaction patterns between the different tipping elements of the earth system that are evidenced in paleoclimatic records On this basis an assessment of cascading versus stabilizing effects of tippingelement interactions will be delivered Task 13

Impact report

Linked to Task 8.3.

Evaluation of tipping phenomena in models of climate tipping elements across scales

Climate models on different scales can show bifurcations inducing tipping. We are going to study stochastic reduction techniques to link the tipping events in model classes and examples across scales (Task 5.1).

Impact assessment in European vulnerable regional climates

Assessment report summarising the impacts of crossing TPs on a range of Europe-relevant climate properties such as the statistics of atmospheric blocking and weather regimes, using state-of-the-art climate models. TPs include significant melting of the European Alpine glaciers or the Greenland ice sheet, and a slowdown and potential collapse of the AMOC. Specific emphasis is put on significant changes in terms of precipitation and temperature extremes, as defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCDDI). Drought- and agricultural-impact models in worst case scenarios will be used to assess damages for society.

Mid-term report from scientific Advisory Board

Linked to Task 82

Rare-event algorithm for tracing Tipping Point

The result of implementing the rare-event algorithm in different models in the model hierarchy focused on specific TPs (AMOC and DO-events) will be reported. The aim is to assess the model dependence in quantitative predictions of TPs (Task 2.3).

Review of communication plan made in D7.1

Linked to Task 7.1.

New metrics for safe operating spaces and predictability for climate in the presence of tipping points

A review report will provide an overview of newly developed metrics for the climate sensitivity that incorporate the effect of TPs being passed. Focus will be on TEs that directly affect global mean temperature, as well as on spatial patterns of temperature change. The report will feed into informing the IPCC AR7 process (Task 4.2).

Tipping point report

A review report will be compiled during the first year derived from an expert public meeting focusing on tipping points that are addressed in TiPES It will form the basis for the first policy briefs and fact sheets produced by TiPES The document will be updated during TiPES M30 Task 72

Indian summer monsoon projections under regional and global forcings

Assessment report of the future Indian summer monsoon response to regional and global forcing scenarios based on a hierarchy of climate models This will include the definition of safe operating spaces excluding future dangerous conditions in the hydroclimatology of the region Task 33

Ecological and societal impacts of past abrupt transitions

A report will be submitted on the ecological and societal impacts of past transitions of tipping elements, as evidenced in climatic proxy as well as archaeological records. Particular focus will be on the impact of past climate transitions, as e.g. the 8.2 kyr and 4.2 kyr events, on early human societies (Task 1.3).

Report on warm climate stability

Report on warm climate stability in EMICs, ESMs, and ice-sheet models. A review report will be compiled during the first three years, based on both literature review, and new TiPES simulations. It will enable us to contribute towards policy briefs and fact sheets produced by TiPES (Task 2.2).

"Consistent ""tales of future"""

"Consistent ""tales of future"" communicating the possible consequences of optimal decision making, for generalist audience. This document represents the output of Task 6.3, which will further supported by publications submitted to peer-reviewed journals (Task 6.3)."

Review of tipping point report made in D7.1

Linked to Task 7.2.

Mid-term report from scientific Advisory Board II

Linked to Task 8.2.

Physical mechanisms underlying EWSs

Summary report on physical mechanisms responsible for statistical EWSs of all relevant regional TEs, as inferred from the model simulations carried out in WP3. This report will include an assessment of the predictive power of the discovered EWS and related physical precursors (WP3 all Tasks).

Observable EWSs for AMOC collapse, suitable for use in a changing background climate

Report summarising studies with lowdimensional climate models and AOGCMs in which AMOC thresholds are naturally passed or artificially induced while the underlying climate is changing according to plausible IPCC scenarios The work will identify conditions under which the likelihood of tipping is increased early warning indicators and how these conditions depend on the magnitude and rate of underlying climate change Task 31

Communication plan

A communication plan will be developed that identifies the adressees in academia society and decision makers in the partner countries and the lists the communication instruments that the project will utilize at the level of partners workpagages and the project as a whole The plan will be circulated among the project partners and then published on the www and reviewed M30 Task 71

Advanced statistical EWSs prior to past abrupt transitions

A report will be submitted on early-warning signals of abrupt transitions evidences in paleoclimate records. This report will clearly show how we have gone beyond classical indicators, e.g. by focussing on distinct time scales, co-variabilities between different records, and by considering more specific statistical measures (Task 1.4).

Drivers of abrupt shifts in European regional climates

Report assessing the relevance of causal precursors of abrupt transitions in European regional climates, including a risk assessment. A strong focus will be on the Mediterranean region. Rapid transitions in regional climates in high-resolution climate model simulations covering the 20th and 21st century will be identified. Potential precursors include an AMOC collapse, remote influences (e.g. Pacific or Arctic changes) and regional effects derived from vegetation changes and/or changed land-atmosphere feedbacks (Task 3.4).

Non-autonomous tipping, safe operating paths and unsafe excursions

Climate models are subject to non-autonomous driving. We are going to study associated pullback attractors, their role in tipping events and provide associated concepts of safe operating spaces (Task 5.2).

Uncertainty assessment of ice-sheet projections

Uncertainty assessment report of future mid-long term (from centuries to tens of millennia) Antarctic and Greenland ice-sheet evolution. The focus will be on parameters and parameterisations of ice-sheet models that dominate uncertainty in future projections, first using stand-alone ice-sheet models and then shifting to coupled ice-sheet-climate models (Task 3.5).

Development of uncertainty in tipping point systems

This deliverable provides the scientific basis supporting the formulation and specification the of the sequential decision problem, based on the domain-specific language (Task 6.2). It will actually consist of the compilation of articles submitted in the course of the tasks, with supporting code available open access as a git library. We therefore consider more efficient to report this progress as one formal deliverable, as this scientific output will, anyway, be processed all along and made publicly available through the usual peer-reviewed channels (Task 6.2, 6.3).

Likelihood and impacts of Amazon tipping to savanna state

Report providing a risk assessment of a tipping of the South American Monsoon System to a savannah state due to global-warming-induced precipitation changes, on the one hand, and widespread deforestation, on the other hand. These risks will be assessed using a hierarchy of models with dynamical atmosphere-vegetation coupling. Cumulative risk assessment induced by both factors will be included, as well as an assessment of the associated impacts (Task 3.2).

TiPES Outcome Briefs

For stakeholders in partner countries and policymakers briefs and fact sheets will be written for specific events such as professional conferences and UNFCCC COPs (Task 7.3).

Evaluation of EWS techniques: extensions beyond equilibria as well as for network systems

Early-warning signs have been focused on steady-state solutions in differential equations, yet our understanding will be improved for network systems as well as for other invariants sets. In these cases we are going to evaluate the impact of topology and invariant set structure (Task 5.3).

Domain-specific-language with basic notions about Tipping Points

With annotations examples of usage and relations and implementation in Idris It will be provided as a report containing the dictionary of notions formalised such as being compatible with computer language Idris or similar supported by a code library The report intends to function as a draft for a publication which can be circulated among partners for further feedback Task 61

Setup internal communication

Website launch with public part for outreach and internal part for communication among partners and transparent consortium administration, setup appropriate software solution for webinars, make plan for delegating seminar planning and appointment of organizers and moderators. Webside will be continuous developed throughout the project lifetime (Task 8.4).

TiPES website

A website will be created by the project management. It will contain material for all addressees identified in the communication plan. A special focus will be on scientific material, briefs, and fact sheets addressed at policymakers. The website will also host publications and data for public use (Task 7.3)

D1.1: Open-access proxy data repository of tipping elements in past climates

We will provide a publically available online data repository containing available proxy records that evidence the temporal behavior of tipping elements in past climates. This repository will be accessible from the TiPES website, and linked with existing repositories such as Pangaea. The most accurate age models will be published alongside the respective records, and wherever possible, marker-based synchronizations between the different records will be provided (Task 1.1).

Public engagement event

TiPES will contribute side events at a UNFCCC COP meeting or a similar international high profile events toward the end in order to communicate with high impact the findings relevant for Climate Change policies (Task 7.4).

Final version of the game

D7.6: Final version of the game (OTH, M36, Task 7.6). Digital game to engage with the public: A digital game for computers and other allocated platforms will be developed with the focus on facilitating tipping points to the general public (ages 12+) in an engaging manner. The game will focus on re-playability, allowing audiences to experiment with and evaluate the causes and effects of their own actions in regards to climate change and tipping points. Fabula will finalize the development of the game and release the game on appropriate platforms. The game will be made available in english and will be available to play for free in all EU countries.

Statistical toolbox to analyse tipping elements in proxy records

A statistical toolbox, written in the programming language Python, will be published on the open-access code platform GitHub, and linked to the TiPES website. This toolbox will allow to analyse records of tipping elements in past climates in terms of time series on common, absolute time scales, whilst keeping track of the associated uncertainties (Task 1.2).

Software: computational tools for identifying, classifying and predicting tipping

Computational benchmark studies for tipping events occur in several aspects of the project. Here we link the software and development efforts to provide extensions to currently available scientific computing approaches to tipping points (Task 5.3).

Course on functional languages and to dependently typed languages

The course will be delivered by N. Botta at UCL after the recruitment is finalised. It takes the form of seminars with either slide or syllabus support (Task 6.1).

Software implementation of new ice core and marine core relevant code

Software implementation of new ice core and marine core relevant code in UKESM1 to enable testing against water isotope measurements (UBristol). This deliverable will produce new (Fortran) code for the UKESM model. It will be made available to UKESM community once it has been fully tested (Task 2.1).

Modelling protocol for DO events for CMIP-PMIP

We will write suggested DO-modelling protocol, and liaise with CMIP-PMIP steering committee, to put appropriate protocol on the CMIP-PMIP website. This protocol will be published in a peer reviewed paper (T2.1).

Software package for linear response operators in climate models

A software package will be developed to construct linear response operators in different climate models. Based on our analysis of various models of intermediate to more sophisticated complexity (PlaSIM, Bern3D, HadCM3, EC-Earth, CESM) we will make available the analysis tools for extracting the linear response operator from climate models (Task 4.1).

Publications

Understanding AMOC stability: the North Atlantic Hosing Model Intercomparison Project

Auteurs: Laura C. Jackson, Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo, Katinka Bellomo, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Helmuth Haak, Aixue Hu, Johann Jungclaus, Warren Lee, Virna L. Meccia, Oleg Saenko, Andrew Shao, and Didier Swingedouw
Publié dans: Geosci. Model Dev., Numéro 6, 2023, Page(s) 1975–1995, ISSN 1991-959X
Éditeur: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-1975-2023

Internal multi-centennial variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation simulated by EC-Earth3

Auteurs: Virna L. Meccia, Ramón Fuentes-Franco, Paolo Davini, Katinka Bellomo, Federico Fabiano, Shuting Yang and Jost von Hardenberg
Publié dans: Climate Dynamics, Numéro 14320894, 2022, ISSN 1432-0894
Éditeur: Springer
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06534-4

Adaptive voter model on simplicial complexes.

Auteurs: Christian Kuehn; Leonhard Horstmeyer
Publié dans: Phys. Rev. E, Numéro 22, 2019, ISSN 1536-6065
Éditeur: American Physical Society
DOI: 10.1103/physreve.101.022305

Climate impacts of a substantial weakening of the AMOC over the Euro-Atlantic region in the EC-Earth3 climate model

Auteurs: Katinka Bellomo, Virna L. Meccia, Roberta D’Agostino, Federico Fabiano, Sarah M. Larson, Jost von Hardenberg & Susanna Corti
Publié dans: Climate Dynamics, 2023, ISSN 1432-0894
Éditeur: Copenicus
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-06754-2

Multi-centennial evolution of the climate response and deep ocean heat uptake in a set of abrupt stabilization scenarios with EC-Earth3

Auteurs: Federico Fabiano, Paolo Davini, Virna Meccia, Giuseppe Zappa, Alessio Bellucci, Valerio Lembo, Katinka Bellomo, and Susanna Corti
Publié dans: Earth System Dynamics, Numéro [accepted], 2023, ISSN 2190-4987
Éditeur: Copenicus
DOI: 10.5194/esd-2023-15

An astronomically dated record of Earth’s climate and its predictability over the last 66 million years

Auteurs: Thomas Westerhold, Norbert Marwan, Anna Joy Drury, Diederik Liebrand, Claudia Agnini, Eleni Anagnostou, James S. K. Barnet, Steven M. Bohaty, David De Vleeschouwer, Fabio Florindo, Thomas Frederichs, David A. Hodell, Ann E. Holbourn, Dick Kroon, Vittoria Lauretano, Kate Littler, Lucas J. Lourens, Mitchell Lyle, Heiko Pälike, Ursula Röhl, Jun Tian, Roy H. Wilkens, Paul A. Wilson, James C. Zachos
Publié dans: Science, Numéro 369/6509, 2020, Page(s) 1383-1387, ISSN 0036-8075
Éditeur: American Association for the Advancement of Science
DOI: 10.1126/science.aba6853

Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Auteurs: Peter D. Ditlevsen and Susanne Ditlevsen
Publié dans: Nature Communications, Numéro 14, 2023, Page(s) 4254, ISSN 2041-1723
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-39810-w

Theoretical and paleoclimatic evidence for abrupt transitions in the Earth system

Auteurs: Niklas Boers, Michael Ghil and Thomas F Stocker
Publié dans: Environ. Res. Lett., Numéro 17, 9, 2022, Page(s) 093006, ISSN 1748-9326
Éditeur: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac8944

The coupled ice sheet-Earth system model Bern3D v3. 0

Auteurs: Frerk Pöppelmeier, Fortunat Joos, and Thomas F. Stocker
Publié dans: Journal of Climate, 2023, Page(s) 1-39, ISSN 0894-8755
Éditeur: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0104.1

Robustness of competing climatic states

Auteurs: Ragon, Charline; Lembo, Valerio; Lucarini, Valerio; Vérard, Christian; Kasparian, Jérôme; Brunetti, Maura
Publié dans: Journal of Climate, Numéro 35(7), 2022, Page(s) 1-59, ISSN 1520-0442
Éditeur: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0148.1

Antarctic Ice Sheet elevation impacts on water isotope records during the Last Interglacial

Auteurs: Sentia Goursaud, Max Holloway, Louise Sime, Eric Wolff, Paul Valdes, Eric J. Steig, Andrew Pauling
Publié dans: Geophysical Research Letters, 2020, ISSN 0094-8276
Éditeur: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091412

Statistical estimation of global surface temperature response to forcing under the assumption of temporal scaling

Auteurs: Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, Sigrunn Holbek Sørbye, Hege-Beate Fredriksen, Håvard Rue, Martin Rypdal
Publié dans: Earth System Dynamics, Numéro 11/2, 2020, Page(s) 329-345, ISSN 2190-4987
Éditeur: EGU
DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-329-2020

Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Auteurs: Niklas Boers; Niklas Boers; Niklas Boers
Publié dans: Nature Climate Change, Numéro 11/12, 2021, ISSN 1758-6798
Éditeur: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01097-4

Meridional-energy-transport extremes and the general circulation of Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes: dominant weather regimes and preferred zonal wavenumbers

Auteurs: Valerio Lembo, Federico Fabiano, Vera Melinda Galfi, Rune Grand Graversen, Valerio Lucarini​​​​​​​, and Gabriele Messori
Publié dans: Weather and Climate Dynamics, Numéro 3, 2022, Page(s) 1037–1062, ISSN 2698-4016
Éditeur: Göttingen Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-3-1037-2022

Sea-ice-free Arctic during the Last Interglacial supports fast future loss

Auteurs: Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Louise C. Sime, David Schröeder, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Erica Rosenblum, Mark Ringer, Jeff Ridley, Danny Feltham, Cecilia Bitz, Eric J. Steig, Eric Wolff, Julienne Stroeve, Alistair Sellar
Publié dans: Nature Climate Change, Numéro 10/10, 2020, Page(s) 928-932, ISSN 1758-678X
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0865-2

Time-scale synchronisation of oscillatory responses can lead to non-monotonous R-tipping

Auteurs: Swierczek-Jereczek, J., Montoya, M., Robinson, A., Alvarez-Solas, J., & Blasco, J
Publié dans: Scientific Reports, Numéro 13, 2023, Page(s) 2104, ISSN 2045-2322
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-28771-1

Response and Sensitivity Using Markov Chains

Auteurs: Manuel Santos Gutiérrez, Valerio Lucarini
Publié dans: Journal of Statistical Physics, Numéro 179/5-6, 2020, Page(s) 1572-1593, ISSN 0022-4715
Éditeur: Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers
DOI: 10.1007/s10955-020-02504-4

East Greenland ice core dust record reveals timing of Greenland ice sheet advance and retreat

Auteurs: Paul Vallelonga; Aslak Grinsted; Alejandra Borunda; Alejandra Borunda; Steven L. Goldstein; Steven L. Goldstein; Thomas Blunier; Marius Simonsen; Mai Winstrup; Diana Vladimirova; Helle Astrid Kjær; Bo M Vinther; Gisela Winckler; Gisela Winckler; Barbara Delmonte; Robert Frei; Anders Svensson; Giovanni Baccolo; Todd Sowers
Publié dans: Nature communications, Numéro 30, 2019, ISSN 2041-1723
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-12546-2

Normalized US hurricane damage estimates using area of total destruction, 1900−2018

Auteurs: Aslak Grinsted, Peter Ditlevsen, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen
Publié dans: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Numéro 116/48, 2019, Page(s) 23942-23946, ISSN 0027-8424
Éditeur: National Academy of Sciences
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1912277116

Reconstructing complex system dynamics from time series: a method comparison

Auteurs: Forough Hassanibesheli, Niklas Boers, Jürgen Kurths
Publié dans: New Journal of Physics, Numéro 22/7, 2020, Page(s) 073053, ISSN 1367-2630
Éditeur: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1367-2630/ab9ce5

Stable stadial and interstadial states of the last glacial's climate identified in a combined stable water isotope and dust record from Greenland

Auteurs: Keno Riechers, Leonardo Rydin Gorjão, Forough Hassanibesheli, Pedro G. Lind, Dirk Witthaut, and Niklas Boers
Publié dans: Earth System Dynamics, Numéro 14.3, 2023, Page(s) 593-607, ISSN 2190-4979
Éditeur: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH
DOI: 10.5194/esd-14-593-2023

Elliptic and Parabolic Boundary Value Problems in Weighted Function Spaces

Auteurs: Hummel, Felix; Lindemulder, Nick
Publié dans: Potential Analysis, Numéro 52, 2021, ISSN 1572-929X
Éditeur: Springer Nature B.V.
DOI: 10.1007/s11118-021-09929-w

Resilience of dynamical systems

Auteurs: Hana Krakovská, Christian Kuehn and Iacopo P. Longo
Publié dans: European Journal of Applied Mathematics, 2023, Page(s) 1-46, ISSN 1469-4425
Éditeur: Cambridge University Press
DOI: 10.1017/s0956792523000141

Canadian forest fires, Icelandic volcanoes and increased local dust observed in six shallow Greenland firn cores

Auteurs: Helle Astrid Kjær, Patrick Zens, Samuel Black, Kasper Holst Lund, Anders Svensson, and Paul Vallelonga
Publié dans: Climate of the Past, Numéro 18149324, 2022, Page(s) 2211-2230, ISSN 1814-9324
Éditeur: European Geosciences Union (EGU).
DOI: 10.5194/cp-18-2211-2022

Stabilization of cyclic processes by slowly varying forcing

Auteurs: J. Newman; M. Lucas; A. Stefanovska
Publié dans: Chaos, Numéro 31(12), 2021, ISSN 1089-7682
Éditeur: American Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1063/5.0066641

Quasipotentials for coupled escape problems and the gate-height bifurcation

Auteurs: Peter Ashwin; Jennifer Creaser; Krasimira Tsaneva-Atanasova
Publié dans: Crossref, Numéro 24, 2023, ISSN 0031-9007
Éditeur: American Physical Society
DOI: 10.1103/physreve.107.014213

Main controls on the stable carbon isotope composition of speleothems

Auteurs: Jens Fohlmeister, Ny Riavo G. Voarintsoa, Franziska A. Lechleitner, Meighan Boyd, Susanne Brandtstätter, Matthew J. Jacobson, Jessica L. Oster
Publié dans: Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, Numéro 279, 2020, Page(s) 67-87, ISSN 0016-7037
Éditeur: Pergamon Press Ltd.
DOI: 10.1016/j.gca.2020.03.042

Fragmented tipping in a spatially heterogeneous world

Auteurs: Robbin Bastiaansen, Henk A Dijkstra, Anna S von der Heydt
Publié dans: Environmental Research letters, Numéro 17 (4), 2022, ISSN 1748-9326
Éditeur: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac59a8

Simulating the Laurentide Ice Sheet of the Last Glacial Maximum

Auteurs: Daniel Moreno-Parada, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Javier Blasco, Marisa Montoya, & Alexander Robinson
Publié dans: The Cryosphere, Numéro 17, 2023, Page(s) 2139–2156, ISSN 1994-0424
Éditeur: Göttingen Copernicus Publ.
DOI: 10.5194/tc-17-2139-2023

A new mathematical framework for atmospheric blocking events

Auteurs: Valerio Lucarini, Andrey Gritsun
Publié dans: Climate Dynamics, Numéro 54/1-2, 2020, Page(s) 575-598, ISSN 0930-7575
Éditeur: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-05018-2

Comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core records

Auteurs: Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, Keno Riechers,Martin Wibe Rypdal, Niklas Boers
Publié dans: Climate of the past, Numéro 18, 6, 2022, Page(s) 1275-1294, ISSN 1814-9332
Éditeur: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022

An early-warning indicator for Amazon droughts exclusively based on tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures

Auteurs: Catrin Ciemer, Lars Rehm, Jürgen Kurths, Reik V Donner, Ricarda Winkelmann, Niklas Boers
Publié dans: Environmental Research Letters, Numéro 15/9, 2020, Page(s) 094087, ISSN 1748-9326
Éditeur: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab9cff

Towards neural Earth system modelling by integrating artificial intelligence in Earth system science

Auteurs: Christopher Irrgang; Niklas Boers; Niklas Boers; Niklas Boers; Maike Sonnewald; Maike Sonnewald; Maike Sonnewald; Elizabeth A. Barnes; Christopher Kadow; Joanna Staneva; Jan Saynisch-Wagner
Publié dans: Nature Machine Intelligence, Numéro 3, 2021, ISSN 2522-5839
Éditeur: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s42256-021-00374-3

Uncertainties in critical slowing down indicators of observation-based fingerprints of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation

Auteurs: Ben-Yami, Maya ; Skiba, Vanessa ; Bathiany, Sebastian ; Boers, Niklas
Publié dans: Nature communications, Numéro 14, 2023, Page(s) 8344, ISSN 2041-1723
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44046-9

On the correctness of monadic backward induction

Auteurs: Brede, Nuria; Botta, Nicola
Publié dans: Journal of Functional Programming, Numéro 31, 2021, ISSN 1469-7653
Éditeur: online
DOI: 10.1017/s0956796821000228

Significance of uncertain phasing between the onsets of stadial–interstadial transitions in different Greenland ice core proxies

Auteurs: Keno Riechers Niklas Boers
Publié dans: Climate of the past, 2021, ISSN 1814-9332
Éditeur: Göttingen Copernicus Publ.
DOI: 10.5194/cp-17-1751-2021

Climate-induced speleothem radiocarbon variability on Socotra Island from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Younger Dryas

Auteurs: Steffen Therre, Jens Fohlmeister, Dominik Fleitmann, Albert Matter, Stephen J. Burns, Jennifer Arps, Andrea Schröder-Ritzrau, Ronny Friedrich, Norbert Frank
Publié dans: Climate of the Past, Numéro 16/1, 2020, Page(s) 409-421, ISSN 1814-9332
Éditeur: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/cp-16-409-2020

Fingerprints for Early Detection of Changes in the AMOC

Auteurs: L. C. Jackson, R. A. Wood
Publié dans: Journal of Climate, Numéro 33/16, 2020, Page(s) 7027-7044, ISSN 0894-8755
Éditeur: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0034.1

Differentiable programming for Earth system modeling

Auteurs: Maximilian Gelbrecht, Alistair White, Sebastian Bathiany, and Niklas Boers
Publié dans: Geoscientific Model Development, Numéro 16,11, 2023, Page(s) 3123–3135, ISSN 1991-9603
Éditeur: Göttingen Copernicus Publ.
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-3123-2023

Overturning Pathways Control AMOC Weakening in CMIP6 Models

Auteurs: Jonathan A. Baker, Michael J. Bell, Laura C. Jackson, Richard Renshaw, Geoffrey K. Vallis, Andrew J. Watson, Richard A. Wood
Publié dans: geophysical Research Letters, Numéro 50, 14, 2023, Page(s) e2023GL103381, ISSN 0094-8276
Éditeur: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2023gl103381

Neural partial differential equations for chaotic systems

Auteurs: Maximilian Gelbrecht; Maximilian Gelbrecht; Maximilian Gelbrecht; Niklas Boers; Niklas Boers; Niklas Boers; Juergen Kurths; Juergen Kurths
Publié dans: New Journal of Physics, Numéro 12, 2021, ISSN 1367-2630
Éditeur: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.17169/refubium-30839

Resilient Antarctic monsoonal climate prevented ice growth during the Eocene

Auteurs: Michiel Baatsen, Peter Bijl, Anna von der Heydt, Appy Sluijs, and Henk Dijkstra
Publié dans: Climate of the Past, Numéro 20,1, 2024, Page(s) 77-90, ISSN 1814-9332
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Auteurs: Valerio Lucarini, Larissa Serdukova, and Georgios Margazoglou
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Simulating AMOC tipping driven by internal climate variability with a rare event algorithm

Auteurs: Matteo Cini, Giuseppe Zappa, Francesco Ragone & Susanna Corti
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A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127 ka: sea ice data compilation and model differences

Auteurs: Masa Kageyama, Louise C. Sime, Marie Sicard, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Anne de Vernal, Ruediger Stein, David Schroeder, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cecilia Bitz, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Jian Cao, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Danny Feltham, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-B
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Early-warning signals for Cenozoic climate transitions

Auteurs: Christopher Boettner, Georg Klinghammer, Niklas Boers, Thomas Westerhold, Norbert Marwan,
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The coupled system response to 250 years of freshwater forcing: Last Interglacial CMIP6–PMIP4 HadGEM3 simulations

Auteurs: Maria Vittoria Guarino, Louise C. Sime, Rachel Diamond, Jeff Ridley, and David Schroeder
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Orbital insolation variations, intrinsic climate variability, and Quaternary glaciations

Auteurs: Keno Riechers, Takahito Mitsui, Niklas Boers, and Michael Ghil
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On some aspects of the response to stochastic and deterministic forcings

Auteurs: Gutiérrez, Manuel Santos, and Valerio Lucarini.
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"""Rate-induced tipping: thresholds, edge states and connecting orbits"

Auteurs: Wieczorek, Sebastian, Chun Xie, and Peter Ashwin.
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Warning signs for non-Markovian bifurcations: colour blindness and scaling laws

Auteurs: Kuehn, Christian; Lux, Kerstin; Neamtu, Alexandra
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The Pleistocene Glacial Cycles and Millennial-Scale Climate Variability

Auteurs: Peter Ditelvsen
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Seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon onset with echo state networks.

Auteurs: Mitsui, T., Boers, N.
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Ice core evidence for major volcanic eruptions at the onset of Dansgaard–Oeschger warming events

Auteurs: Johannes Lohmann and Anders Svensson
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Exploring the impact of atmospheric forcing and basal drag on the Antarctic Ice Sheet under Last Glacial Maximum conditions

Auteurs: Javier Blasco, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya
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Effect of orographic gravity wave drag on Northern Hemisphere climate in transient simulations of the last deglaciation

Auteurs: Brooke Snoll, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Paul J. Valdes, Amanda C. Maycock, Lauren J. Gregoire
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Lost options commitment: how short-term policies affect long-term scope of action

Auteurs: Marina Martínez Montero, Nuria Brede, Victor Couplet, Michel Crucifix, Nicola Botta, Claudia Wienerse
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Reversibility of Greenland ice sheet mass loss under artificial carbon dioxide removal scenarios

Auteurs: Höning, Dennis, Matteo Willeit, and Andrey Ganopolski
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Role of mineral dust in the nitrate preservation during the glacial period: Insights from the RICE ice core

Auteurs: Abhijith U.Venugopala Nancy A.N.Bertler Rebecca L.Pyne Helle A.Kjær V. Holly L.Winton Paul A.Mayewski Giuseppe Cortesea
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Atmospheric CO2 control of spontaneous millennial-scale ice age climate oscillations

Auteurs: Guido Vettoretti Peter D. Ditlevsen Markus Jochum S. Olander Rasmussen
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The contribution of melt ponds to enhanced Arctic sea-ice melt during the Last Interglacial

Auteurs: Diamond, R Sime, LC Schroeder, D Guarino, M-V
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Random templex encodes topological tipping points in noise-driven chaotic dynamics

Auteurs: Gisela D. Charó; Michael Ghil; Denisse Sciamarella
Publié dans: Chaos, Numéro 33, 2023, Page(s) 103141, ISSN 1054-1500
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The role of Northern Hemisphere summer insolation for millennial-scale climate variability during the penultimate glacial

Auteurs: Jens Fohlmeister, Marc Luetscher, Christoph Spötl, Andrea Schröder-Ritzrau, Birgit Schröder, Norbert Frank, René Eichstädter, Martin Trüssel, Vanessa Skiba & Niklas Boers
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Critical slowing down in dynamical systems driven by nonstationary correlated noise

Auteurs: Christopher Boettner, Niklas Boers
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Global footprints of dansgaard-oeschger oscillations in a GCM

Auteurs: Kenji Izumi, Edward Armstrong, Paul Valdes,
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Global reorganization of atmospheric circulation during Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles

Auteurs: Jens Fohlmeister, Natasha Sekhon, Andrea Columbu, Guido Vettoretti, Nils Weitzel, Kira Rehfeld, Cristina Veiga-Pires, Maya Ben-Yami, Norbert Marwan, and Niklas Boers
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Abrupt climate change as a rate-dependent cascading tipping point

Auteurs: Johannes Lohmann, Daniele Castellana, Peter D. Ditlevsen, Henk A. Dijkstra
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Hysteresis of the Earth system under positive and negative CO 2 emissions

Auteurs: Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Thomas F Stocker, Fortunat Joos
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Rate-induced tracking for concave or d-concave transitions in a time-dependent environment with application in ecology

Auteurs: J. Dueñas, I. P. Longo, R. Obaya
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Multi-proxy constraints on Atlantic circulation dynamics since the last ice age

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The Significance of the Melt-Pond Scheme in a CMIP6 Global Climate Model

Auteurs: Rachel Diamond, David Schroeder, Louise C. Sime, Jeff Ridley, and Danny Feltham
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Climate response and sensitivity: time scales and late tipping points

Auteurs: Robbin Bastiaansen; Peter Ashwin; Anna S. von der Heydt
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Global oscillatory modes in high-end climate modeling and reanalyses

Auteurs: Yizhak Feliks Justin Small Michael Ghil
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Detection of dynamical regime transitions with lacunarity as a multiscale recurrence quantification measure

Auteurs: Tobias Braun, Vishnu R. Unni, R. I. Sujith, Juergen Kurths, Norbert Marwan
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Probabilistic measures for biological adaptation and resilience

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Influence of Elevated Nd Fluxes on the Northern Nd Isotope End Member of the Atlantic During the Early Holocene

Auteurs: Frerk Pöppelmeier, Jeemijn Scheen, Patrick Blaser, Jörg Lippold, Marcus Gutjahr, Thomas F. Stocker
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Responsibility Under Uncertainty: Which Climate Decisions Matter Most?

Auteurs: Nicola Botta, Nuria Brede, Michel Crucifix, Cezar Ionescu, Patrik Jansson, Zheng Li, Marina Martínez & Tim Richter
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Overshooting the critical threshold for the Greenland ice sheet

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Fingerprinting Heatwaves and Cold Spells and Assessing Their Response to Climate Change Using Large Deviation Theory

Auteurs: Vera Melinda Galfi; Valerio Lucarini
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Distinguishing between deterministic oscillations and noise

Auteurs: Rowland Adams, J., Newman, J. & Stefanovska, A.
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Response theory and phase transitions for the thermodynamic limit of interacting identical systems

Auteurs: Valerio Lucarini, Grigorios A. Pavliotis, Niccolò Zagli
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Melt in the Greenland EastGRIP ice core reveals Holocene warm events

Auteurs: Julien Westhoff, Giulia Sinnl, Anders Svensson, Johannes Freitag, Helle Astrid Kjær, Paul Vallelonga, Bo Vinther, Sepp Kipfstuhl, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen and Ilka Weikusat
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Glacial Abrupt Climate Change as a Multiscale Phenomenon Resulting from Monostable Excitable Dynamics

Auteurs: Keno Riechers, Georg Gottwald, and Niklas Boers
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Tipping points induced by parameter drift in an excitable ocean model

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The Effect of Past Saturation Changes on Noble Gas Reconstructions of Mean Ocean Temperature

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Latitudinal storm track shift in a reduced two-level model of the atmosphere

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Paleoclimate-conditioning reveals a North Africa land–atmosphere tipping point

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Reduction methods in climate dynamics—A brief review

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Arnold Maps with Noise: Differentiability and Non-monotonicity of the Rotation Number

Auteurs: L. Marangio, J. Sedro, S. Galatolo, A. Di Garbo, M. Ghil
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Ensemble Oscillation Correction (EnOC): Leveraging Oscillatory Modes to Improve Forecasts of Chaotic Systems

Auteurs: Eviatar Bach Safa Mote V. Krishnamurthy Michael Ghil Eugenia Kalnay
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Rough basin boundaries in high dimension: Can we classify them experimentally?

Auteurs: Tamás Bódai, Valerio Lucarini
Publié dans: Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, Numéro 30/10, 2020, Page(s) 103105, ISSN 1054-1500
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Climate and structure of the 8.2 ka event reconstructed from three speleothems from Germany

Auteurs: Sarah Waltgenbach, Denis Scholz, Christoph Spötl, Dana F.C. Riechelmann, Klaus P. Jochum, Jens Fohlmeister, Andrea Schröder-Ritzrau
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Applications of large deviation theory in geophysical fluid dynamics and climate science

Auteurs: Vera Melinda Gálfi, Valerio Lucarini, Francesco Ragone, Jeroen Wouters
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Rough Center Manifolds

Auteurs: Alexandra Neamţu; Christian Kuehn
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Complex systems approaches for Earth system data analysis

Auteurs: Niklas Boers, Jürgen Kurths, Norbert Marwan
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Homogenization of Fully-Coupled Chaotic Fast-Slow Systems via Intermediate Stochastic Regularization

Auteurs: Engel, Maximilian; Gkogkas, Marios-Antonios; Kuehn, Christian
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Network dynamics on graphops

Auteurs: Christian Kuehn
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Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review

Auteurs: Nico Wunderling, Anna S. von der Heydt, Yevgeny Aksenov, Stephen Barker, Robbin Bastiaansen, Victor Brovkin, Maura Brunetti, Victor Couplet, Thomas Kleinen, Caroline H. Lear, Johannes Lohmann, Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta, Sacha Sinet, Didier Swingedouw, Ricarda Winkelmann, Pallavi Anand, Jonathan Barichivich, Sebastian Bathiany, Mara Baudena, John T. Bruun, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Helen K. Coxall, David
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Event synchrony measures for functional climate network analysis: A case study on South American rainfall dynamics

Auteurs: Frederik Wolf, Jurek Bauer, Niklas Boers, Reik V. Donner
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Analysis of a bistable climate toy model with physics-based machine learning methods

Auteurs: Maximilian Gelbrecht, Valerio Lucarini, Niklas Boers, Jürgen Kurths
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Chameleon attractors in turbulent flows

Auteurs: Tommaso Alberti, Francois Daviaud, Reik V. Donner, Berengere Dubrulle, Davide Faranda, Valerio Lucarini
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Extreme cold events in Europe under a reduced AMOC

Auteurs: Virna L Meccia, Claudia Simolo, Katinka Bellomo and Susanna Corti
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Sample Paths Estimates for Stochastic Fast-Slow Systems Driven by Fractional Brownian Motion

Auteurs: Katharina Eichinger, Christian Kuehn, Alexandra Neamţu
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Limited Retreat of the Wilkes Basin Ice Sheet During the Last Interglacial

Auteurs: J. Sutter, O. Eisen, M. Werner, K. Grosfeld, T. Kleiner, H. Fischer
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Can we use linear response theory to assess geoengineering strategies?

Auteurs: Tamás Bódai, Valerio Lucarini, Frank Lunkeit
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Assessing the impact of parametric uncertainty on tipping points of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Auteurs: Kerstin Lux, Peter Ashwin, Richard Wood and Christian Kuehn
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Asymptotic behavior of the forecast–assimilation process with unstable dynamics

Auteurs: Dan Crisan and Michael Ghil
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Existence and influence of mixed states in a model of vegetation patterns

Auteurs: Lilian Vanderveken, Marina Martínez Montero, and Michel Crucifix
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Estimating Remaining Carbon Budgets Using Temperature Responses Informed by CMIP6

Auteurs: Martin Rypdal, Niklas Boers, Hege-Beate Fredriksen, Kai-Uwe Eiselt, Andreas Johansen, Andreas Martinsen, Endre Falck Mentzoni, Rune G. Graversen and Kristoffer Rypdal
Publié dans: Frontiers in Climate, 2021, ISSN 2624-9553
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The physics of climate variability and climate change

Auteurs: Michael Ghil, Valerio Lucarini
Publié dans: Reviews of Modern Physics, Numéro 92/3, 2020, ISSN 0034-6861
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Dansgaard–Oeschger-like events of the penultimate climate cycle: the loess point of view

Auteurs: Denis-Didier Rousseau, Pierre Antoine, Niklas Boers, France Lagroix, Michael Ghil, Johanna Lomax, Markus Fuchs, Maxime Debret, Christine Hatté, Olivier Moine, Caroline Gauthier, Diana Jordanova, Neli Jordanova
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Changes in Local and Global Climate Feedbacks in the Absence of Interactive Clouds: Southern Ocean–Climate Interactions in Two Intermediate-Complexity Models

Auteurs: Patrik L. Pfister, Thomas F. Stocker
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Multistability and Transient Response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions

Auteurs: Dennis Höning, Matteo Willeit, Reinhard Calov, Volker Klemann, Meike Bagge, Andrey Ganopolski
Publié dans: Geophysical research letters, Numéro 50, 6, 2023, Page(s) e2022GL101827, ISSN 0094-8276
Éditeur: American Geophysical Union
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A punctuated equilibrium analysis of the climate evolution of cenozoic exhibits a hierarchy of abrupt transitions

Auteurs: Denis-Didier Rousseau, Witold Bagniewski & Valerio Lucarini
Publié dans: Scientific Reports, Numéro 13, 2023, Page(s) 11290, ISSN 2332-2675
Éditeur: Springer
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Robustness of precipitation Emergent Constraints in CMIP6 models

Auteurs: Olivia Ferguglia, Jost von Hardenberg and Elisa Palazzi
Publié dans: Climate Dynamics, 2023, ISSN 1432-0894
Éditeur: Springer
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A potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may stabilise eastern Amazonian rainforests

Auteurs: Da Nian, Sebastian Bathiany, Maya Ben-Yami, Lana L. Blaschke, Marina Hirota, Regina R. Rodrigues & Niklas Boers
Publié dans: Communications Earth & Environment, Numéro 4, 470, 2023, ISSN 2662-4435
Éditeur: Springer Nature,
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Numerical continuation for a fast-reaction system and its cross-diffusion limit

Auteurs: Christian Kuehn, Cinzia Soresina
Publié dans: SN Partial Differential Equations and Applications, Numéro 1/2, 2020, ISSN 2662-2963
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Destabilisation of the Subpolar North Atlantic prior to the Little Ice Age

Auteurs: Beatriz Arellano-Nava, Paul R. Halloran, Chris A. Boulton, James Scourse, Paul G. Butler, David J. Reynolds and Timothy M. Lenton
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Identifying the Mechanisms of DO-scale Oscillations in a Gcm: a Salt Oscillator Triggered by the Laurentide Ice Sheet

Auteurs: Edward M. Armstrong; Kenji Izumi; Paul Valdes
Publié dans: Climate Dynamics, Numéro 18, 2022, ISSN 0930-7575
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Antarctic evidence for an abrupt northward shift of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies at 32 ka BP

Auteurs: Abhijith U. Venugopal, Nancy A. N. Bertler, Jeffrey P. Severinghaus, Edward J. Brook, Giuseppe Cortese, James E. Lee, Thomas Blunier, Paul A. Mayewski, Helle A. Kjær, Lionel Carter, Michael E. Weber, Richard H. Levy, Rebecca L. Pyne & Marcus J. Vandergoes
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Noise-driven topological changes in chaotic dynamics

Auteurs: Gisela D. Charó; Gisela D. Charó; Mickaël D. Chekroun; Denisse Sciamarella; Denisse Sciamarella; Michael Ghil; Michael Ghil
Publié dans: Chaos, Numéro 31(10), 2021, ISSN 1089-7682
Éditeur: American Institute of Physics
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Dynamical landscape and multistability of a climate model

Auteurs: Georgios Margazoglou, Tobias Grafke, Alessandro Laio, Valerio Lucarini
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Intermittent phase dynamics of non-autonomous oscillators through time-varying phase

Auteurs: Joseph P. Scott, Julian Newman, Joe Rowland Adams, & Aneta Stefanovska
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How might a collapse in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation affect rainfall over tropical South America

Auteurs: Peter Good, Niklas Boers, Chris A. Boulton, Jason A. Lowe, Ingo Richter
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Estimating rate-induced tipping via asymptotic series and a Melnikov-like method

Auteurs: Christian Kuehn, Iacopo P. Longo
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Review article: Hilbert problems for the climate sciences in the 21st century – 20 years later

Auteurs: Michael Ghil
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Physical measures of asymptotically autonomous dynamical systems

Auteurs: Julian Newman and Peter Ashwin
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Typicality of the 2021 Western North America summer heatwave

Auteurs: Valerio Lucarini, Vera Melinda Galfi, Jacopo Riboldi and Gabriele Messori
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Boundary value problems of elliptic and parabolic type with boundary data of negative regularity

Auteurs: Felix Hummel
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Interrupting vaccination policies can greatly spread SARS-CoV-2 and enhance mortality from COVID-19 disease: The AstraZeneca case for France and Italy

Auteurs: Davide Faranda, Tommaso Alberti, Maxence Arutkin, Valerio Lembo, Valerio Lucarini
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A universal route to explosive phenomena.

Auteurs: Christian Kuehn; Christian Bick
Publié dans: Science Advances, Numéro 7(16), 2021, ISSN 2375-2548
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Critical slowing down suggests that the western Greenland Ice Sheet is close to a tipping point

Auteurs: Niklas Boers, Martin Rypdal
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Automatic detection of abrupt transitions in paleoclimate records

Auteurs: W. Bagniewski, M. Ghil, D. D. Rousseau
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Éditeur: American Institute of Physics
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Risk of tipping the overturning circulation due to increasing rates of ice melt

Auteurs: Johannes Lohmann, Peter D. Ditlevsen
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Modeling the marine chromium cycle: new constraints on global-scale processes

Auteurs: Frerk Pöppelmeier David J. Janssen Samuel L. Jaccard Thomas F. Stocker
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A New Method to Compute Transition Probabilities in Multi-Stable Stochastic Dynamical Systems: Application to the Wind-Driven Ocean Circulation

Auteurs: René M. van Westen, Sourabh Kotnala, Sven Baars, Fred W. Wubs, Henk A. Dijkstra
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Simulated stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during the Last Glacial Maximum

Auteurs: Frerk Pöppelmeier, Jeemijn Scheen, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Thomas F. Stocker
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Increased wintertime European atmospheric blocking frequencies in General Circulation Models with an eddy-permitting ocean

Auteurs: Simon L. L. Michel, Anna S. von der Heydt, René M. van Westen, Michiel L. J. Baatsen & Henk A. Dijkstra
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Abrupt CO 2 release to the atmosphere under glacial and early interglacial climate conditions

Auteurs: C. Nehrbass-Ahles, J. Shin, J. Schmitt, B. Bereiter, F. Joos, A. Schilt, L. Schmidely, L. Silva, G. Teste, R. Grilli, J. Chappellaz, D. Hodell, H. Fischer, T. F. Stocker
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Uncertainty Quantification of Bifurcations in Random Ordinary Differential Equations

Auteurs: Kerstin Lux; Christian Kuehn
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Modelling the effect of aerosol and greenhouse gas forcing on the South Asian and East Asian monsoons with an intermediate-complexity climate model

Auteurs: Lucy G. Recchia and Valerio Lucarini
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A portable Lightweight In Situ Analysis (LISA) box for ice and snow analysis

Auteurs: Kjær, Helle Astrid Lisa Lolk Hauge Marius Simonsen Yoldi, Zuriñe Iben Koldtoft Maria Hörholdt Johannes Freitag Sepp Kipfstuhl Svensson, Anders Paul Vallelonga
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Stochastic resonance for nonequilibrium systems

Auteurs: Valerio Lucarini
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Global vegetation resilience linked to water availability and variability

Auteurs: Smith, T., Boers, N.
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Evasion of tipping in complex systems through spatial pattern formation

Auteurs: Max, Rietkerk; Robbin, Bastiaansen; Swarnendu, Banerjee; Johan, van de Koppel; Mara, Baudena; Arjen, Doelman
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Spectroscopy of phase transitions for multiagent systems

Auteurs: Niccolò Zagli, Valerio Lucarini, Grigorios A. Pavliotis
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Remotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales

Auteurs: Timothy M. Lenton, Jesse F. Abrams, Annett Bartsch, Sebastian Bathiany, Chris A. Boulton, Joshua E. Buxton, Alessandra Conversi, Andrew M. Cunliffe, Sophie Hebden, Thomas Lavergne, Benjamin Poulter, Andrew Shepherd, Taylor Smith, Didier Swingedouw, Ricarda Winkelmann & Niklas Boers
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Review article: Dynamical systems, algebraic topology and the climate sciences

Auteurs: Michael Ghil and Denisse Sciamarella
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Volcanism and the Greenland ice cores: A new tephrochronological framework for the last glacial-interglacial transition (LGIT) based on cryptotephra deposits in three ice cores

Auteurs: Eliza Cook, Peter M.Abbott, Nick J.G.Pearcec, Seyedhamidreza Mojtabavid, Anders Svensson, Anna J. Bournea, Sune O.Rasmussen, Inger K.Seierstad, Bo M.Vinther, Joseph Harrisone, Elliott Street, Jørgen Peder Steffensen, Frank Wilhelms, Siwan M. Davies
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Reduced-order models for coupled dynamical systems: Data-driven methods and the Koopman operator

Auteurs: Manuel Santos Gutiérrez, Valerio Lucarini, Mickaël D. Chekroun, Michael Ghil
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Connecting a direct and a Galerkin approach to slow manifolds in infinite dimensions

Auteurs: Maximilian Engel; Felix Hummel; Christian Kuehn
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Emergent structure and dynamics of tropical forest-grassland landscapes

Auteurs: Wuyts, Bert, and Jan Sieber
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CH4 and N2O fluctuations during the penultimate deglaciation

Auteurs: Loïc Schmidely, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Jochen Schmitt, Juhyeong Han, Lucas Silva, Jinwha Shin, Fortunat Joos, Jérôme Chappellaz, Hubertus Fischer, Thomas Stocker
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How dusty was the last glacial maximum over Europe?

Auteurs: Denis-Didier Rousseau, Pierre Antoine, Youbin Sun
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Summer surface air temperature proxies point to near-sea-ice-free conditions in the Arctic at 127 ka

Auteurs: Louise C. Sime, Rahul Sivankutty, Irene Vallet-Malmierca, Agatha M. de Boer, and Marie Sicard
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A reliable benchmark of the last 640,000 years millennial climate variability

Auteurs: Rousseau, Denis-Didier, Witold Bagniewski, and Hai Cheng
Publié dans: Scientific Reports, Numéro 13.1, 2023, Page(s) 22851, ISSN 2045-2322
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Physical invariant measures and tipping probabilities for chaotic attractors of asymptotically autonomous systems

Auteurs: Peter Ashwin, Julian Newman
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Surprises for climate stability

Auteurs: Thomas F. Stocker
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A Data-Based Minimal Model of Episodic Inflation Events at Volcanoes

Auteurs: Damian Walwer, Michael Ghil and Eric Calais
Publié dans: Frontiers in Earth Science, 2022, ISSN 2296-6463
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Multivariate Estimations of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity From Short Transient Warming Simulations

Auteurs: Robbin Bastiaansen, Henk A. Dijkstra, Anna S. von der Heydt
Publié dans: Geophysical Research Letters, Numéro 48/1, 2021, ISSN 0094-8276
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Crossover and peaks in the Pleistocene climate spectrum; understanding from simple ice age models

Auteurs: Peter Ditlevsen, Takahito Mitsui, Michel Crucifix
Publié dans: Climate Dynamics, Numéro 54/3-4, 2020, Page(s) 1801-1818, ISSN 0930-7575
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Impact of an AMOC weakening on the stability of the southern Amazon rainforest

Auteurs: Catrin Ciemer, Ricarda Winkelmann, Jürgen Kurths Niklas Boers
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Abrupt climate changes and the astronomical theory: are they related?

Auteurs: Denis-Didier Rousseau, Witold Bagniewski, Michael Ghil
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Machine learning approach reveals strong link between obliquity amplitude increase and the Mid-Brunhes transition

Auteurs: T Mitsui, N Boers
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Evaluating the Performance of Climate Models Based on Wasserstein Distance

Auteurs: Gabriele Vissio, Valerio Lembo, Valerio Lucarini, Michael Ghil
Publié dans: Geophysical Research Letters, Numéro 47/21, 2020, ISSN 0094-8276
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Reliability of vegetation resilience estimates depends on biomass density

Auteurs: Taylor Smith and Niklas Boers
Publié dans: Nature Ecology & Evolution, Numéro 7, 2023, Page(s) 1799-1808, ISSN 2397-334X
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A Multi-Model Ensemble Kalman Filter for Data Assimilation and Forecasting

Auteurs: Eviatar Bach, Michael Ghil
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Pronounced loss of Amazon rainforest resilience since the early 2000s

Auteurs: Chris A. Boulton, Timothy M. Lenton, Niklas Boers
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Extensional equality preservation and verified generic programming

Auteurs: Botta, Nicola; Brede, Nuria; Jansson, Patrik; Richter, Tim
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Extratropical Low‐Frequency Variability With ENSO Forcing: A Reduced‐Order Coupled Model Study

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Stochastic Parameterizations and the Climate Response to External Forcing: An Experiment With EC‐Earth

Auteurs: Virna L. Meccia, Federico Fabiano, Paolo Davini, Susanna Corti
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Theoretical tools for understanding the climate crisis from Hasselmann's programme and beyond

Auteurs: V Lucarini, MD Chekroun
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Introduction to the Special Issue on the Statistical Mechanics of Climate

Auteurs: Valerio Lucarini; Valerio Lucarini
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Critical transitions for scalar nonautonomous systems with concave nonlinearities: some rigorous estimates

Auteurs: Iacopo P Longo, Carmen Núñez, and Rafael Obaya
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Sea ice feedbacks influence the isotopic signature of Greenland ice sheet elevation changes: last interglacial HadCM3 simulations

Auteurs: I. Malmierca-Vallet; I. Malmierca-Vallet; L. C. Sime; P. J. Valdes; J. C. Tindall
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Evaporative controls on Antarctic precipitation: an ECHAM6 model study using innovative water tracer diagnostics

Auteurs: Qinggang Gao, Louise C. Sime, Alison J. McLaren, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Emilie Capron, Rachael H. Rhodes, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Xiaoxu Shi, and Martin Werner
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Analysis of a two-layer energy balance model: Long time behavior and greenhouse effect

Auteurs: P. Cannarsa ; V. Lucarini ; P. Martinez ; C. Urbani ; J. Vancostenoble
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Controls on propagation of the Indian monsoon onset in an idealised model

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Future climate change shaped by inter-model differences in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation response

Auteurs: Katinka Bellomo, Michela Angeloni, Susanna Corti, Jost von Hardenberg
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An annually resolved chronology for the Mount Brown South ice cores, East Antarctica

Auteurs: Tessa R. Vance, Nerilie J. Abram, Alison S. Criscitiello, Camilla K. Crockart, Aylin DeCampo, Vincent Favier, Vasileios Gkinis, Margaret Harlan, Sarah L. Jackson, Helle A. Kjær, Chelsea A. Long, Meredith K. Nation, Chris T. Plummer, Delia Segato, Andrea Spolaor, and Paul T. Vallelonga
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Green Sahara tipping points in transient climate model simulations of the Holocene

Auteurs: Peter O Hopcroft; Paul J Valdes
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Projections of the Transient State-Dependency of Climate Feedbacks

Auteurs: Robbin Bastiaansen; Henk A. Dijkstra; Anna von der Heydt
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Sample paths of white noise in spaces with dominating mixed smoothness

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Bipolar volcanic synchronization of abrupt climate change in Greenland and Antarctic ice cores during the last glacial period

Auteurs: Anders Svensson, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Jørgen Peder Steffensen, Thomas Blunier, Sune O. Rasmussen, Bo M. Vinther, Paul Vallelonga, Emilie Capron, Vasileios Gkinis, Eliza Cook, Helle Astrid Kjær, Raimund Muscheler, Sepp Kipfstuhl, Frank Wilhelms, Thomas F. Stocker, Hubertus Fischer, Florian Adolphi, Tobias Erhardt, Michael Sigl, Amaelle Landais, Frédéric Parrenin, Christo Buizert, Joseph R. McCon
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Coupled Climate-Economy-Ecology (CoCEB) Modeling: A Dynamic Approach

Auteurs: Keroboto B.Z. Ogutu, Fabio D'Andrea, Andreas Groth, Michael Ghil
Publié dans: SSRN Electronic Journal, 2020, ISSN 1556-5068
Éditeur: SSRN
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3697299

State-dependent impact of major volcanic eruptions observed in ice-core records of the last glacial period

Auteurs: Johannes Lohmann, Jiamei Lin, Bo M. Vinther, Sune O. Rasmussen, and Anders Svensson
Publié dans: Climate of the past, Numéro 20, 2024, Page(s) 313–333, ISSN 1814-9324
Éditeur: European Geosciences Union (EGU).
DOI: 10.5194/cp-20-313-2024

Eddy saturation in a reduced two-level model of the atmosphere

Auteurs: Melanie Kobras, Maarten H. P. Ambaum, Valerio Lucarini
Publié dans: Geophysical & Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics, Numéro 116, 2022, ISSN 0309-1929
Éditeur: Taylor & Francis
DOI: 10.1080/03091929.2021.1990912

Mechanics and thermodynamics of a new minimal model of the atmosphere

Auteurs: Gabriele Vissio, Valerio Lucarini
Publié dans: The European Physical Journal Plus, Numéro 135/10, 2020, ISSN 2190-5444
Éditeur: Springer Science + Business Media
DOI: 10.1140/epjp/s13360-020-00814-w

Numerical continuation for fractional PDEs: sharp teeth and bloated snakes

Auteurs: Noémie Ehstand, Christian Kuehn, Cinzia Soresina
Publié dans: Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation, Numéro 98, 2021, Page(s) 105762, ISSN 1007-5704
Éditeur: Elsevier BV
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Empirical evidence for recent global declines in vegetation resilience

Auteurs: Taylor Smith, Dominik Traxl and Niklas Boers
Publié dans: Nature Climate Change, Numéro 12, 2022, Page(s) 477-484, ISSN 1758-678X
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01352-2

Compound warm–dry and cold–wet events over the Mediterranean

Auteurs: Paolo De Luca, Gabriele Messori, Davide Faranda, Philip J. Ward, Dim Coumou
Publié dans: Earth System Dynamics, Numéro 11/3, 2020, Page(s) 793-805, ISSN 2190-4987
Éditeur: copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-793-2020

Heterogeneity of the attractor of the Lorenz ’96 model: Lyapunov analysis, unstable periodic orbits, and shadowing properties

Auteurs: Chiara Cecilia Maiocchi, Valerio Lucarini, Andrey Gritsun, Yuzuru Sato
Publié dans: Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, Numéro 457, 2024, Page(s) 133970, ISSN 0167-2789
Éditeur: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.physd.2023.133970

A Random Dynamical Systems Perspective on Isochronicity for Stochastic Oscillations

Auteurs: Maximilian Engel; Christian Kuehn
Publié dans: Communications in Mathematical Physics, Numéro 386, 2021, ISSN 1432-0916
Éditeur: Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany
DOI: 10.1007/s00220-021-04077-z

Neodymium isotopes as a paleo-water mass tracer: A model-data reassessment

Auteurs: Frerk Pöppelmeier; Jörg Lippold; Patrick Blaser; Marcus Gutjahr; Martin Frank; Thomas F. Stocker
Publié dans: Quaternary Science Review, Numéro 279, 2022, ISSN 0277-3791
Éditeur: Pergamon Press Ltd.
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Holocene climate forcings and lacustrine regime shifts in the Indian summer monsoon realm

Auteurs: Sushma Prasad, Norbert Marwan, Deniz Eroglu, Bedartha Goswami, Praveen K. Mishra, Birgit Gaye, A. Anoop, N. Basavaiah, Martina Stebich, Arshid Jehangir
Publié dans: Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 2020, ISSN 0197-9337
Éditeur: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
DOI: 10.1002/esp.5004

Random attractors via pathwise mild solutions for stochastic parabolic evolution equations

Auteurs: Christian Kuehn; Alexandra Neamţu; Stefanie Sonner
Publié dans: Journal of Evolution Equations, Numéro 21, 2021, Page(s) 2631–2663, ISSN 1424-3202
Éditeur: Springer Nature Switzerland AG
DOI: 10.1007/s00028-021-00699-x

Impacts of the PMIP4 ice sheets on Northern Hemisphere climate during the last glacial period

Auteurs: Kenji Izumi, Paul Valdes, Ruza Ivanovic, Lauren Gregoire
Publié dans: Climate Dynamics, 2022, ISSN 0930-7575
Éditeur: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06456-1

Decomposing the dynamics of the Lorenz 1963 model using unstable periodic orbits: Averages, transitions, and quasi-invariant sets

Auteurs: Chiara Cecilia Maiocchi, Valerio Lucarini, Andrey Gritsun,
Publié dans: AIP Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, Numéro 32, 033129, 2022, ISSN 1054-1500
Éditeur: American Institute of Physics
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Sensitivity of the tropical dust cycle to glacial abrupt climate changes

Auteurs: Hopcroft, P. O., Pichat, S., Valdes, P. J., & Kienast, S. S
Publié dans: Geophysical Research Letters, Numéro 50.1, 2023, ISSN 0094-8276
Éditeur: American Geophysical Union
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Quantification and interpretation of the climate variability record

Auteurs: Anna S. von der Heydt, Peter Ashwin, Charles D. Camp, Michel Crucifix, Henk A. Dijkstra, Peter Ditlevsen, Timothy M. Lenton
Publié dans: Global and Planetary Change, Numéro 197, 2021, Page(s) 103399, ISSN 0921-8181
Éditeur: Elsevier BV
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SURFER v2.0: a flexible and simple model linking anthropogenic CO2 emissions and solar radiation modification to ocean acidification and sea level rise

Auteurs: Marina Martínez Montero, Michel Crucifix, Victor Couplet, Nuria Brede, and Nicola Botta
Publié dans: Geosci. Model Dev., Numéro 19919603, 2022, Page(s) 8059-8084, ISSN 1991-9603
Éditeur: Copernicus
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Synchronization phenomena observed in glacial–interglacial cycles simulated in an Earth system model of intermediate complexity

Auteurs: Takahito Mitsui, Matteo Willeit, and Niklas Boers
Publié dans: Earth System Dynamics, Numéro 14, 6, 2023, Page(s) 1277–1294, ISSN 2190-4987
Éditeur: Göttingen Copernicus Publ.
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Extreme Sensitivity and Climate Tipping Points

Auteurs: Peter Ashwin, Anna S. von der Heydt
Publié dans: Journal of Statistical Physics, Numéro 179/5-6, 2020, Page(s) 1531-1552, ISSN 0022-4715
Éditeur: Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers
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Climate intervention on a high-emissions pathway could delay but not prevent West Antarctic Ice Sheet demise

Auteurs: J. Sutter, A. Jones, T. L. Frölicher, C. Wirths & T. F. Stocker
Publié dans: Nature Climate Change, 2023, ISSN 1758-678X
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
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Detection of abrupt changes in East Asian monsoon from Chinese loess and speleothem records

Auteurs: Denis-Didier Rousseau, Witold Bagniewski, Youbin Sun
Publié dans: Global and Planetary Change, Numéro 227, 2023, Page(s) 104154, ISSN 0921-8181
Éditeur: Elsevier BV
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The South American monsoon approaches a critical transition in response to deforestation

Auteurs: Nils Bochow and Niklas Boers
Publié dans: science advances, Numéro 9 (40), 2023, ISSN 2375-2548
Éditeur: Science Advances
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.add9973

Slow manifolds for infinite-dimensional evolution equations

Auteurs: Felix Hummel and Chrsitian Kuehn
Publié dans: Commentarii Mathematici Helvetici, Numéro 14208946, 2022, Page(s) 61-132, ISSN 1420-8946
Éditeur: Swiss Mathematical Society
DOI: 10.4171/cmh/527

Predictors and predictands of linear response in spatially extended systems

Auteurs: Umberto Maria Tomasini, Valerio Lucarini
Publié dans: The European Physical Journal Special Topics, 2021, ISSN 1951-6355
Éditeur: EDP Sciences
DOI: 10.1140/epjs/s11734-021-00158-1

Model-Data Comparison of Antarctic Winter Sea-Ice Extent and Southern Ocean Sea-Surface Temperatures During Marine Isotope Stage 5e

Auteurs: M. Chadwick, L. C. Sime, C. S. Allen, M.-V. Guarino
Publié dans: Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, Numéro 38, 6, 2023, Page(s) e2022PA004600, ISSN 2572-4525
Éditeur: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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Global stability properties of the climate: Melancholia states, invariant measures, and phase transitions

Auteurs: Valerio Lucarini, Tamás Bódai
Publié dans: Nonlinearity, Numéro 33/9, 2020, Page(s) R59-R92, ISSN 0951-7715
Éditeur: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1361-6544/ab86cc

Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction

Auteurs: Simon L. L. Michel, Didier Swingedouw, Pablo Ortega, Guillaume Gastineau, Juliette Mignot, Gerard McCarthy, Myriam Khodri
Publié dans: Nature communications, Numéro 5176, 2022, ISSN 2041-1723
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-32704-3

Beyond Forcing Scenarios: Predicting Climate Change through Response Operators in a Coupled General Circulation Model.

Auteurs: Valerio Lucarini; Valerio Lucarini; Valerio Lembo; Francesco Ragone
Publié dans: Scientific Reports, Vol 10, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2020), Numéro 18, 2020, ISSN 2045-2322
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-65297-2

Multistability and intermediate tipping of the Atlantic Ocean circulation

Auteurs: Johannes Lohmann; Henk A. Dijkstra; Markus Jochum; Valerio Lucarini; Peter D. Ditlevsen
Publié dans: SCIENCE ADVANCES, Numéro 10, 12, 2024, ISSN 2375-2548
Éditeur: American Association for the Advancement of Science
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Dansgaard–Oeschger events in climate models: review and baseline Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3) protocol

Auteurs: Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Louise C. Sime, and the D–O community members
Publié dans: Climate of the Past, Numéro 19, 2023, Page(s) 915–942, ISSN 1814-9324
Éditeur: European Geosciences Union (EGU).
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The PaleoJump database for abrupt transitions in past climates

Auteurs: Witold Bagniewski, Michael Ghil & Denis-Didier Rousseau
Publié dans: Sci Rep, Numéro 13, 2023, Page(s) 4472, ISSN 2045-2322
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
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Reconstructing Historical Climate Fields With Deep Learning

Auteurs: Nils Bochow, Anna Poltronieri, Martin Rypdal, Niklas Boers
Publié dans: arXiv, Numéro [preprint], 2023
Éditeur: arXiv
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2311.18348

Persistent synchronization of heterogeneous networks with time-dependent linear diffusive coupling

Auteurs: Jardón-Kojakhmetov, Hildeberto ; Kuehn, Christian ; Longo, Iacopo P.
Publié dans: ArXiv, Numéro [prerint], 2023
Éditeur: Cornell University
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2305.05747

Anticipating critical transitions in multi-dimensional systems driven by time- and state-dependent noise

Auteurs: Andreas Morr, Keno Riechers, Leonardo Rydin Gorjão, Niklas Boers
Publié dans: arXiv, Numéro [preprint], 2023
Éditeur: ArXiv
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2308.16773

Tipping Point Detection and Early-Warnings in climate, ecological, and human systems

Auteurs: Vasilis Dakos, Chris A. Boulton, Josh E. Buxton, Jesse F. Abrams, David I. Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Lana Blaschke, Niklas Boers, Daniel Dylewsky, Carlos López-Martínez, Isobel Parry, Paul Ritchie, Bregje van der Bolt, Larissa van der Laan, Els Weinans, and Sonia Kéfi
Publié dans: EGUSphere, Numéro [preprint], 2023
Éditeur: Copenicus
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-1773

Detecting and Attributing Change in Climate and Complex Systems: Foundations, Kolmogorov Modes, and Nonlinear Fingerprints

Auteurs: Valerio Lucarini, Mickaël Chekroun
Publié dans: arXiV, Numéro [preprint], 2023
Éditeur: Cornell University
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2212.02628

The influence of present-day regional surface mass balance uncertainties on the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Auteurs: Christian Wirths, Johannes Sutter, and Thomas Stocker
Publié dans: EGUsphere, Numéro [preprint], 2023
Éditeur: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-2233

Spatial correlation increase in single-sensor satellite data reveals loss of Amazon rainforest resilience

Auteurs: Lana L. Blaschke, Da Nian, Bathiany, Maya Ben-Yami, Taylor Smith, Chris A. Boulton, Niklas Boers
Publié dans: arXiv, Numéro [preprint], 2023
Éditeur: Cornell University
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The Temporal Phasing of Rapid Dansgaard–Oeschger Warming Events Cannot Be Reliably Determined

Auteurs: John Slattery, Louise C. Sime, Francesco Muschitiello, and Keno Riechers
Publié dans: Climate of the Past discussions, Numéro [in review], 2023, ISSN 1814-9324
Éditeur: European Geosciences Union (EGU).
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-2496

Description and validation of the ice sheet model Nix v1.0

Auteurs: Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya, and Jorge Alvarez-Solas
Publié dans: EGUSphere, Numéro [preprint], 2023
Éditeur: Copenicus
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Types, equations, dimensions and the Pi theorem

Auteurs: Nicola Botta, Patrik Jansson, Guilherme Horta Alvares Da Silva
Publié dans: arXiv, Numéro [preprint], 2023
Éditeur: Cornell university
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2308.09481

Rainfall Seasonality Dominates Critical Precipitation Threshold for the Amazon Forest in the Lpjml Vegetation Model

Auteurs: NIAN, DA and Bathiany, Sebastian and Sakschewski, Boris and Drüke, Markus and Blaschke, Lana and Ben-Yami, Maya and von Bloh, Werner and Boers, Niklas
Publié dans: SSRN, Numéro [preprint], 2023
Éditeur: SSRN
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.4658035

Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations

Auteurs: Sina Loriani, Yevgeny Aksenov, David Armstrong McKay, Govindasamy Bala, Andreas Born, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Henk Dijkstra, Jonathan F. Donges, Sybren Drijfhout, Matthew H. England, Alexey V. Fedorov, Laura Jackson, Kai Kornhuber, Gabriele Messori, Francesco Pausata, Stefanie Rynders, Jean-Baptiste Salée, Bablu Sinha, Steven Sherwood, Didier Swingedouw, and Thejna Tharammal
Publié dans: Erath system Dynamics, Numéro [preprint], 2023
Éditeur: Copenicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-2589

A strategy to compute convective timescales of the Indian monsoon with the WRF model

Auteurs: Lucy G. Recchia, Valerio Lucarini
Publié dans: arXiv, Numéro [preprint], 2023
Éditeur: ArXiV
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Saddle avoidance of noise-induced transitions in multiscale systems

Auteurs: Reyk Börner, Ryan Deeley, Raphael Römer, Tobias Grafke, Valerio Lucarini, Ulrike Feudel
Publié dans: arXiv, Numéro [preprint], 2023
Éditeur: Cornell University
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2311.10231

Crossing planetary boundaries could lead to Hothouse Earth

Auteurs: Erik Chavez, Michael Ghil, Jan Rombouts
Publié dans: https://www.researchsquare.com/, Numéro [preprint], 2024
Éditeur: https://www.researchsquare.com/
DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3870378/v1

Internal noise interference in anticipation of tipping points of generic multi-dimensional dynamical systems

Auteurs: Andreas Morr, Niklas Boers and Peter Ashwin
Publié dans: arXiv, Numéro [preprint], 2023
Éditeur: Cornell University
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2311.18597

Dimensional analysis identifies contrasting dynamics of past climate states and critical transitions

Auteurs: Tommaso Alberti, Fabio Florindo, Eelco J. Rohling, Valerio Lucarini, Davide Faranda
Publié dans: arXiv, Numéro [preprint], 2023
Éditeur: ArXiV
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Agnostic detection of large-scale weather patterns in the northern hemisphere: from blockings to teleconnections

Auteurs: Sebastian Springer, Vera Melinda Galfi, Alessandro Laio, Valerio Lucarini
Publié dans: arXiv, Numéro [preprint], 2023
Éditeur: arXiv
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Climate sensitivity, commitment and abrupt change: toward an ontology for climate tipping point research

Auteurs: Botta, Nicola; Brede, Nuria; Crucifix, Michel; Marina Martínez Montero
Publié dans: 2022
Éditeur: TiPES
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.6820683

Winter Euro-Atlantic blocking activity less sensitive to climate change than previously evaluated

Auteurs: Simon L. L. Michel, Anna S. von der Heydt, Henk A. Dijkstra
Publié dans: ESS Open Archive, Numéro [preprint], 2023
Éditeur: Authorea.com
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Decoupling of δ18O from surface temperature in Antarctica in an ensemble of Historical simulations

Auteurs: Sentia Oger, Louise Sime, and Max Holloway
Publié dans: EGUsphere, Numéro [preprint], 2023
Éditeur: Copenicus
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-2735

Deep learning reconstruction of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation strength validates ongoig twenty-first century decline

Auteurs: Simon Michel, Henk Dijkstra, Francesco Guardamagna, Valérian Jacques-Dumas, René van Westen, Anna von der Heydt
Publié dans: Research Square, Numéro [preprint], 2023
Éditeur: https://www.researchsquare.com/
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A DSL for Monadic Decision Problems, Responsibility under Uncertainty and Tipping Point Notions

Auteurs: Botta, Nicola; Brede, Nuria; Crucifix, Michel; Martínez Montero, Marina
Publié dans: 2022
Éditeur: TiPES
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On the periodicity of free oscillations for a finite ice column

Auteurs: Daniel Moreno, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya, and Jorge Alvarez-Solas
Publié dans: The Cryosphere Discuss. [preprint], Numéro in review, 2022, ISSN 1994-0440
Éditeur: Copenicus
DOI: 10.5194/tc-2022-97

Antarctic Tipping points triggered by the mid-Pliocene warm climate

Auteurs: Javier Blasco, Ilaria Tabone, Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Frank Pattyn, and Marisa Montoya
Publié dans: Climateof the Past Discussions, Numéro [preprint], 2023, ISSN 1814-9324
Éditeur: European Geosciences Union (EGU).
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Looking to the (far) future of climate projection.

Auteurs: Chris A. Boulton
Publié dans: Global Change Biology, Numéro 7, 2022, ISSN 1354-1013
Éditeur: Blackwell Publishing Inc.
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A Climate Science Toolkit for High Impact-Low Likelihood Climate Risks

Auteurs: Richard A. Wood, Michel Crucifix, Timothy M. Lenton, Katharine J. Mach, Crystal Moore, Mark New, Simon Sharpe, Thomas F. Stocker, Rowan T. Sutton
Publié dans: Erath's Future, Numéro 11, 4, 2023, Page(s) e2022EF003369, ISSN 2328-4277
Éditeur: John Wiley & Sons
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Limits to predictability of the asymptotic state of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a conceptual climate model

Auteurs: Mehling, Oliver, Reyk Börner, and Valerio Lucarini
Publié dans: Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, Numéro 134043, 2023, ISSN 0167-2789
Éditeur: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.physd.2023.134043

Can the Miocene climate inform the future?

Auteurs: Anna von der Heydt
Publié dans: Science, Numéro 377, 6601, 2022, Page(s) 26-27, ISSN 0036-8075
Éditeur: American Association for the Advancement of Science
DOI: 10.1126/science.abq6542

Climate, zoonosis, and interdisciplinarity

Auteurs: Michael Ghil
Publié dans: PNAS, Numéro 120 (39), 2023, Page(s) e2311575120, ISSN 0027-8424
Éditeur: National Academy of Sciences
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Bifurcation Analysis of Systems With Delays: Methods and Their Use in Applications

Auteurs: Bernd Krauskopf and Jan Sieber
Publié dans: Controlling Delayed Dynamics. CISM International Centre for Mechanical Sciences, Numéro vol 604., 2022, ISBN 978-3-031-01129-0
Éditeur: Springer, Cham.
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Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Nonautonomous Dynamical Systems, and the Climate Sciences

Auteurs: Michael Ghil, Eric Simonnet
Publié dans: Mathematical Approach to Climate Change and its Impacts - MAC2I, Numéro 38, 2020, Page(s) 3-81, ISBN 978-3-030-38668-9
Éditeur: Springer International Publishing
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Coupled Climate-Economy-Ecology-Biosphere Modeling: A Dynamic and Stochastic Approach

Auteurs: Ogutu, K.B.Z., D’Andrea, F., Groth, A., Ghil, M
Publié dans: Handbook of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation, 2022, Page(s) 225-287, ISBN 978-3-030-72579-2
Éditeur: Springer, Cham
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An ice-core perspective

Auteurs: Sune Olander Rasmussen
Publié dans: Abrupt Climate Change, Numéro 1, 2020, ISBN 978-87-93604-86-5
Éditeur: Strandberg publishing

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