Tipping Points in the Earth System

CORDIS proporciona enlaces a los documentos públicos y las publicaciones de los proyectos de los programas marco HORIZONTE.

Los enlaces a los documentos y las publicaciones de los proyectos del Séptimo Programa Marco, así como los enlaces a algunos tipos de resultados específicos, como conjuntos de datos y «software», se obtienen dinámicamente de OpenAIRE .

Resultado final

Update on state-dependence and spatial patterns of feedbacks

The review report from D.4.1 will be updated.The document will be updated during TiPES and include newly developed metrics of climate response at the end of T4.1 (Task 4.1).

Ice-sheet thresholds and improved sea-level rise projections

Report on paleo-constrained long-term (from centuries to tens of millennia) ice-sheet projections, including the identification of critical thresholds for irreversible melt-back of the ice sheets in terms of global temperature anomaly and CO2 concentration, as well as improved future sea level rise projections (Task 3.5).

State-dependence and spatial patterns of feedbacks

A review report will be compiled during the first year focusing on feedbacks in the climate system that will be addressed by TiPES Feedbacks will include those with an impact on the global mean temperature and those that may exhibit specific spatial patterns Task 41

AMOC thresholds in CMIP7

Report summarizing recent developments to climate models that are likely to impact on their simulation of AMOC thresholds, on the timescale of CMIP7/IPCC AR7 and beyond. Likely model developments include eddy-resolving ocean resolution and improved treatments of dense overflow waters. Expected to include an assessment of the impact of the model developments on the specific early warning indicators developed earlier in TiPES (Task 3.1).

Spatial patterns of the interrelations between different Tipping Elements

A report will be submitted on the spatial interaction patterns between the different tipping elements of the earth system that are evidenced in paleoclimatic records On this basis an assessment of cascading versus stabilizing effects of tippingelement interactions will be delivered Task 13

Impact report

Linked to Task 8.3.

Evaluation of tipping phenomena in models of climate tipping elements across scales

Climate models on different scales can show bifurcations inducing tipping. We are going to study stochastic reduction techniques to link the tipping events in model classes and examples across scales (Task 5.1).

Impact assessment in European vulnerable regional climates

Assessment report summarising the impacts of crossing TPs on a range of Europe-relevant climate properties such as the statistics of atmospheric blocking and weather regimes, using state-of-the-art climate models. TPs include significant melting of the European Alpine glaciers or the Greenland ice sheet, and a slowdown and potential collapse of the AMOC. Specific emphasis is put on significant changes in terms of precipitation and temperature extremes, as defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCDDI). Drought- and agricultural-impact models in worst case scenarios will be used to assess damages for society.

Mid-term report from scientific Advisory Board

Linked to Task 82

Rare-event algorithm for tracing Tipping Point

The result of implementing the rare-event algorithm in different models in the model hierarchy focused on specific TPs (AMOC and DO-events) will be reported. The aim is to assess the model dependence in quantitative predictions of TPs (Task 2.3).

Review of communication plan made in D7.1

Linked to Task 7.1.

New metrics for safe operating spaces and predictability for climate in the presence of tipping points

A review report will provide an overview of newly developed metrics for the climate sensitivity that incorporate the effect of TPs being passed. Focus will be on TEs that directly affect global mean temperature, as well as on spatial patterns of temperature change. The report will feed into informing the IPCC AR7 process (Task 4.2).

Tipping point report

A review report will be compiled during the first year derived from an expert public meeting focusing on tipping points that are addressed in TiPES It will form the basis for the first policy briefs and fact sheets produced by TiPES The document will be updated during TiPES M30 Task 72

Indian summer monsoon projections under regional and global forcings

Assessment report of the future Indian summer monsoon response to regional and global forcing scenarios based on a hierarchy of climate models This will include the definition of safe operating spaces excluding future dangerous conditions in the hydroclimatology of the region Task 33

Ecological and societal impacts of past abrupt transitions

A report will be submitted on the ecological and societal impacts of past transitions of tipping elements, as evidenced in climatic proxy as well as archaeological records. Particular focus will be on the impact of past climate transitions, as e.g. the 8.2 kyr and 4.2 kyr events, on early human societies (Task 1.3).

Report on warm climate stability

Report on warm climate stability in EMICs, ESMs, and ice-sheet models. A review report will be compiled during the first three years, based on both literature review, and new TiPES simulations. It will enable us to contribute towards policy briefs and fact sheets produced by TiPES (Task 2.2).

"Consistent ""tales of future"""

"Consistent ""tales of future"" communicating the possible consequences of optimal decision making, for generalist audience. This document represents the output of Task 6.3, which will further supported by publications submitted to peer-reviewed journals (Task 6.3)."

Review of tipping point report made in D7.1

Linked to Task 7.2.

Mid-term report from scientific Advisory Board II

Linked to Task 8.2.

Physical mechanisms underlying EWSs

Summary report on physical mechanisms responsible for statistical EWSs of all relevant regional TEs, as inferred from the model simulations carried out in WP3. This report will include an assessment of the predictive power of the discovered EWS and related physical precursors (WP3 all Tasks).

Observable EWSs for AMOC collapse, suitable for use in a changing background climate

Report summarising studies with lowdimensional climate models and AOGCMs in which AMOC thresholds are naturally passed or artificially induced while the underlying climate is changing according to plausible IPCC scenarios The work will identify conditions under which the likelihood of tipping is increased early warning indicators and how these conditions depend on the magnitude and rate of underlying climate change Task 31

Communication plan

A communication plan will be developed that identifies the adressees in academia society and decision makers in the partner countries and the lists the communication instruments that the project will utilize at the level of partners workpagages and the project as a whole The plan will be circulated among the project partners and then published on the www and reviewed M30 Task 71

Advanced statistical EWSs prior to past abrupt transitions

A report will be submitted on early-warning signals of abrupt transitions evidences in paleoclimate records. This report will clearly show how we have gone beyond classical indicators, e.g. by focussing on distinct time scales, co-variabilities between different records, and by considering more specific statistical measures (Task 1.4).

Drivers of abrupt shifts in European regional climates

Report assessing the relevance of causal precursors of abrupt transitions in European regional climates, including a risk assessment. A strong focus will be on the Mediterranean region. Rapid transitions in regional climates in high-resolution climate model simulations covering the 20th and 21st century will be identified. Potential precursors include an AMOC collapse, remote influences (e.g. Pacific or Arctic changes) and regional effects derived from vegetation changes and/or changed land-atmosphere feedbacks (Task 3.4).

Non-autonomous tipping, safe operating paths and unsafe excursions

Climate models are subject to non-autonomous driving. We are going to study associated pullback attractors, their role in tipping events and provide associated concepts of safe operating spaces (Task 5.2).

Uncertainty assessment of ice-sheet projections

Uncertainty assessment report of future mid-long term (from centuries to tens of millennia) Antarctic and Greenland ice-sheet evolution. The focus will be on parameters and parameterisations of ice-sheet models that dominate uncertainty in future projections, first using stand-alone ice-sheet models and then shifting to coupled ice-sheet-climate models (Task 3.5).

Development of uncertainty in tipping point systems

This deliverable provides the scientific basis supporting the formulation and specification the of the sequential decision problem, based on the domain-specific language (Task 6.2). It will actually consist of the compilation of articles submitted in the course of the tasks, with supporting code available open access as a git library. We therefore consider more efficient to report this progress as one formal deliverable, as this scientific output will, anyway, be processed all along and made publicly available through the usual peer-reviewed channels (Task 6.2, 6.3).

Likelihood and impacts of Amazon tipping to savanna state

Report providing a risk assessment of a tipping of the South American Monsoon System to a savannah state due to global-warming-induced precipitation changes, on the one hand, and widespread deforestation, on the other hand. These risks will be assessed using a hierarchy of models with dynamical atmosphere-vegetation coupling. Cumulative risk assessment induced by both factors will be included, as well as an assessment of the associated impacts (Task 3.2).

TiPES Outcome Briefs

For stakeholders in partner countries and policymakers briefs and fact sheets will be written for specific events such as professional conferences and UNFCCC COPs (Task 7.3).

Evaluation of EWS techniques: extensions beyond equilibria as well as for network systems

Early-warning signs have been focused on steady-state solutions in differential equations, yet our understanding will be improved for network systems as well as for other invariants sets. In these cases we are going to evaluate the impact of topology and invariant set structure (Task 5.3).

Domain-specific-language with basic notions about Tipping Points

With annotations examples of usage and relations and implementation in Idris It will be provided as a report containing the dictionary of notions formalised such as being compatible with computer language Idris or similar supported by a code library The report intends to function as a draft for a publication which can be circulated among partners for further feedback Task 61

Setup internal communication

Website launch with public part for outreach and internal part for communication among partners and transparent consortium administration, setup appropriate software solution for webinars, make plan for delegating seminar planning and appointment of organizers and moderators. Webside will be continuous developed throughout the project lifetime (Task 8.4).

TiPES website

A website will be created by the project management. It will contain material for all addressees identified in the communication plan. A special focus will be on scientific material, briefs, and fact sheets addressed at policymakers. The website will also host publications and data for public use (Task 7.3)

D1.1: Open-access proxy data repository of tipping elements in past climates

We will provide a publically available online data repository containing available proxy records that evidence the temporal behavior of tipping elements in past climates. This repository will be accessible from the TiPES website, and linked with existing repositories such as Pangaea. The most accurate age models will be published alongside the respective records, and wherever possible, marker-based synchronizations between the different records will be provided (Task 1.1).

Public engagement event

TiPES will contribute side events at a UNFCCC COP meeting or a similar international high profile events toward the end in order to communicate with high impact the findings relevant for Climate Change policies (Task 7.4).

Data management plan
Data management plan evaluation II

Linked to Task 8.3.

Data management plan evaluation

Linked to Task 83

Final version of the game

D7.6: Final version of the game (OTH, M36, Task 7.6). Digital game to engage with the public: A digital game for computers and other allocated platforms will be developed with the focus on facilitating tipping points to the general public (ages 12+) in an engaging manner. The game will focus on re-playability, allowing audiences to experiment with and evaluate the causes and effects of their own actions in regards to climate change and tipping points. Fabula will finalize the development of the game and release the game on appropriate platforms. The game will be made available in english and will be available to play for free in all EU countries.

Statistical toolbox to analyse tipping elements in proxy records

A statistical toolbox, written in the programming language Python, will be published on the open-access code platform GitHub, and linked to the TiPES website. This toolbox will allow to analyse records of tipping elements in past climates in terms of time series on common, absolute time scales, whilst keeping track of the associated uncertainties (Task 1.2).

Software: computational tools for identifying, classifying and predicting tipping

Computational benchmark studies for tipping events occur in several aspects of the project. Here we link the software and development efforts to provide extensions to currently available scientific computing approaches to tipping points (Task 5.3).

Course on functional languages and to dependently typed languages

The course will be delivered by N. Botta at UCL after the recruitment is finalised. It takes the form of seminars with either slide or syllabus support (Task 6.1).

Software implementation of new ice core and marine core relevant code

Software implementation of new ice core and marine core relevant code in UKESM1 to enable testing against water isotope measurements (UBristol). This deliverable will produce new (Fortran) code for the UKESM model. It will be made available to UKESM community once it has been fully tested (Task 2.1).

Modelling protocol for DO events for CMIP-PMIP

We will write suggested DO-modelling protocol, and liaise with CMIP-PMIP steering committee, to put appropriate protocol on the CMIP-PMIP website. This protocol will be published in a peer reviewed paper (T2.1).

Software package for linear response operators in climate models

A software package will be developed to construct linear response operators in different climate models. Based on our analysis of various models of intermediate to more sophisticated complexity (PlaSIM, Bern3D, HadCM3, EC-Earth, CESM) we will make available the analysis tools for extracting the linear response operator from climate models (Task 4.1).

Publicaciones

Understanding AMOC stability: the North Atlantic Hosing Model Intercomparison Project

Autores: Laura C. Jackson, Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo, Katinka Bellomo, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Helmuth Haak, Aixue Hu, Johann Jungclaus, Warren Lee, Virna L. Meccia, Oleg Saenko, Andrew Shao, and Didier Swingedouw
Publicado en: Geosci. Model Dev., Edición 6, 2023, Página(s) 1975–1995, ISSN 1991-959X
Editor: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-1975-2023

Internal multi-centennial variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation simulated by EC-Earth3

Autores: Virna L. Meccia, Ramón Fuentes-Franco, Paolo Davini, Katinka Bellomo, Federico Fabiano, Shuting Yang and Jost von Hardenberg
Publicado en: Climate Dynamics, Edición 14320894, 2022, ISSN 1432-0894
Editor: Springer
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06534-4

Adaptive voter model on simplicial complexes.

Autores: Christian Kuehn; Leonhard Horstmeyer
Publicado en: Phys. Rev. E, Edición 22, 2019, ISSN 1536-6065
Editor: American Physical Society
DOI: 10.1103/physreve.101.022305

Climate impacts of a substantial weakening of the AMOC over the Euro-Atlantic region in the EC-Earth3 climate model

Autores: Katinka Bellomo, Virna L. Meccia, Roberta D’Agostino, Federico Fabiano, Sarah M. Larson, Jost von Hardenberg & Susanna Corti
Publicado en: Climate Dynamics, 2023, ISSN 1432-0894
Editor: Copenicus
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-06754-2

Multi-centennial evolution of the climate response and deep ocean heat uptake in a set of abrupt stabilization scenarios with EC-Earth3

Autores: Federico Fabiano, Paolo Davini, Virna Meccia, Giuseppe Zappa, Alessio Bellucci, Valerio Lembo, Katinka Bellomo, and Susanna Corti
Publicado en: Earth System Dynamics, Edición [accepted], 2023, ISSN 2190-4987
Editor: Copenicus
DOI: 10.5194/esd-2023-15

An astronomically dated record of Earth’s climate and its predictability over the last 66 million years

Autores: Thomas Westerhold, Norbert Marwan, Anna Joy Drury, Diederik Liebrand, Claudia Agnini, Eleni Anagnostou, James S. K. Barnet, Steven M. Bohaty, David De Vleeschouwer, Fabio Florindo, Thomas Frederichs, David A. Hodell, Ann E. Holbourn, Dick Kroon, Vittoria Lauretano, Kate Littler, Lucas J. Lourens, Mitchell Lyle, Heiko Pälike, Ursula Röhl, Jun Tian, Roy H. Wilkens, Paul A. Wilson, James C. Zachos
Publicado en: Science, Edición 369/6509, 2020, Página(s) 1383-1387, ISSN 0036-8075
Editor: American Association for the Advancement of Science
DOI: 10.1126/science.aba6853

Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Autores: Peter D. Ditlevsen and Susanne Ditlevsen
Publicado en: Nature Communications, Edición 14, 2023, Página(s) 4254, ISSN 2041-1723
Editor: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-39810-w

Theoretical and paleoclimatic evidence for abrupt transitions in the Earth system

Autores: Niklas Boers, Michael Ghil and Thomas F Stocker
Publicado en: Environ. Res. Lett., Edición 17, 9, 2022, Página(s) 093006, ISSN 1748-9326
Editor: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac8944

The coupled ice sheet-Earth system model Bern3D v3. 0

Autores: Frerk Pöppelmeier, Fortunat Joos, and Thomas F. Stocker
Publicado en: Journal of Climate, 2023, Página(s) 1-39, ISSN 0894-8755
Editor: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0104.1

Robustness of competing climatic states

Autores: Ragon, Charline; Lembo, Valerio; Lucarini, Valerio; Vérard, Christian; Kasparian, Jérôme; Brunetti, Maura
Publicado en: Journal of Climate, Edición 35(7), 2022, Página(s) 1-59, ISSN 1520-0442
Editor: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0148.1

Antarctic Ice Sheet elevation impacts on water isotope records during the Last Interglacial

Autores: Sentia Goursaud, Max Holloway, Louise Sime, Eric Wolff, Paul Valdes, Eric J. Steig, Andrew Pauling
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, 2020, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091412

Statistical estimation of global surface temperature response to forcing under the assumption of temporal scaling

Autores: Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, Sigrunn Holbek Sørbye, Hege-Beate Fredriksen, Håvard Rue, Martin Rypdal
Publicado en: Earth System Dynamics, Edición 11/2, 2020, Página(s) 329-345, ISSN 2190-4987
Editor: EGU
DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-329-2020

Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Autores: Niklas Boers; Niklas Boers; Niklas Boers
Publicado en: Nature Climate Change, Edición 11/12, 2021, ISSN 1758-6798
Editor: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01097-4

Meridional-energy-transport extremes and the general circulation of Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes: dominant weather regimes and preferred zonal wavenumbers

Autores: Valerio Lembo, Federico Fabiano, Vera Melinda Galfi, Rune Grand Graversen, Valerio Lucarini, and Gabriele Messori
Publicado en: Weather and Climate Dynamics, Edición 3, 2022, Página(s) 1037–1062, ISSN 2698-4016
Editor: Göttingen Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-3-1037-2022

Sea-ice-free Arctic during the Last Interglacial supports fast future loss

Autores: Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Louise C. Sime, David Schröeder, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Erica Rosenblum, Mark Ringer, Jeff Ridley, Danny Feltham, Cecilia Bitz, Eric J. Steig, Eric Wolff, Julienne Stroeve, Alistair Sellar
Publicado en: Nature Climate Change, Edición 10/10, 2020, Página(s) 928-932, ISSN 1758-678X
Editor: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0865-2

Time-scale synchronisation of oscillatory responses can lead to non-monotonous R-tipping

Autores: Swierczek-Jereczek, J., Montoya, M., Robinson, A., Alvarez-Solas, J., & Blasco, J
Publicado en: Scientific Reports, Edición 13, 2023, Página(s) 2104, ISSN 2045-2322
Editor: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-28771-1

Response and Sensitivity Using Markov Chains

Autores: Manuel Santos Gutiérrez, Valerio Lucarini
Publicado en: Journal of Statistical Physics, Edición 179/5-6, 2020, Página(s) 1572-1593, ISSN 0022-4715
Editor: Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers
DOI: 10.1007/s10955-020-02504-4

East Greenland ice core dust record reveals timing of Greenland ice sheet advance and retreat

Autores: Paul Vallelonga; Aslak Grinsted; Alejandra Borunda; Alejandra Borunda; Steven L. Goldstein; Steven L. Goldstein; Thomas Blunier; Marius Simonsen; Mai Winstrup; Diana Vladimirova; Helle Astrid Kjær; Bo M Vinther; Gisela Winckler; Gisela Winckler; Barbara Delmonte; Robert Frei; Anders Svensson; Giovanni Baccolo; Todd Sowers
Publicado en: Nature communications, Edición 30, 2019, ISSN 2041-1723
Editor: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-12546-2

Normalized US hurricane damage estimates using area of total destruction, 1900−2018

Autores: Aslak Grinsted, Peter Ditlevsen, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen
Publicado en: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Edición 116/48, 2019, Página(s) 23942-23946, ISSN 0027-8424
Editor: National Academy of Sciences
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1912277116

Reconstructing complex system dynamics from time series: a method comparison

Autores: Forough Hassanibesheli, Niklas Boers, Jürgen Kurths
Publicado en: New Journal of Physics, Edición 22/7, 2020, Página(s) 073053, ISSN 1367-2630
Editor: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1367-2630/ab9ce5

Stable stadial and interstadial states of the last glacial's climate identified in a combined stable water isotope and dust record from Greenland

Autores: Keno Riechers, Leonardo Rydin Gorjão, Forough Hassanibesheli, Pedro G. Lind, Dirk Witthaut, and Niklas Boers
Publicado en: Earth System Dynamics, Edición 14.3, 2023, Página(s) 593-607, ISSN 2190-4979
Editor: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH
DOI: 10.5194/esd-14-593-2023

Elliptic and Parabolic Boundary Value Problems in Weighted Function Spaces

Autores: Hummel, Felix; Lindemulder, Nick
Publicado en: Potential Analysis, Edición 52, 2021, ISSN 1572-929X
Editor: Springer Nature B.V.
DOI: 10.1007/s11118-021-09929-w

Resilience of dynamical systems

Autores: Hana Krakovská, Christian Kuehn and Iacopo P. Longo
Publicado en: European Journal of Applied Mathematics, 2023, Página(s) 1-46, ISSN 1469-4425
Editor: Cambridge University Press
DOI: 10.1017/s0956792523000141

Canadian forest fires, Icelandic volcanoes and increased local dust observed in six shallow Greenland firn cores

Autores: Helle Astrid Kjær, Patrick Zens, Samuel Black, Kasper Holst Lund, Anders Svensson, and Paul Vallelonga
Publicado en: Climate of the Past, Edición 18149324, 2022, Página(s) 2211-2230, ISSN 1814-9324
Editor: European Geosciences Union (EGU).
DOI: 10.5194/cp-18-2211-2022

Stabilization of cyclic processes by slowly varying forcing

Autores: J. Newman; M. Lucas; A. Stefanovska
Publicado en: Chaos, Edición 31(12), 2021, ISSN 1089-7682
Editor: American Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1063/5.0066641

Quasipotentials for coupled escape problems and the gate-height bifurcation

Autores: Peter Ashwin; Jennifer Creaser; Krasimira Tsaneva-Atanasova
Publicado en: Crossref, Edición 24, 2023, ISSN 0031-9007
Editor: American Physical Society
DOI: 10.1103/physreve.107.014213

Main controls on the stable carbon isotope composition of speleothems

Autores: Jens Fohlmeister, Ny Riavo G. Voarintsoa, Franziska A. Lechleitner, Meighan Boyd, Susanne Brandtstätter, Matthew J. Jacobson, Jessica L. Oster
Publicado en: Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, Edición 279, 2020, Página(s) 67-87, ISSN 0016-7037
Editor: Pergamon Press Ltd.
DOI: 10.1016/j.gca.2020.03.042

Fragmented tipping in a spatially heterogeneous world

Autores: Robbin Bastiaansen, Henk A Dijkstra, Anna S von der Heydt
Publicado en: Environmental Research letters, Edición 17 (4), 2022, ISSN 1748-9326
Editor: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac59a8

Simulating the Laurentide Ice Sheet of the Last Glacial Maximum

Autores: Daniel Moreno-Parada, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Javier Blasco, Marisa Montoya, & Alexander Robinson
Publicado en: The Cryosphere, Edición 17, 2023, Página(s) 2139–2156, ISSN 1994-0424
Editor: Göttingen Copernicus Publ.
DOI: 10.5194/tc-17-2139-2023

A new mathematical framework for atmospheric blocking events

Autores: Valerio Lucarini, Andrey Gritsun
Publicado en: Climate Dynamics, Edición 54/1-2, 2020, Página(s) 575-598, ISSN 0930-7575
Editor: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-05018-2

Comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core records

Autores: Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, Keno Riechers,Martin Wibe Rypdal, Niklas Boers
Publicado en: Climate of the past, Edición 18, 6, 2022, Página(s) 1275-1294, ISSN 1814-9332
Editor: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022

An early-warning indicator for Amazon droughts exclusively based on tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures

Autores: Catrin Ciemer, Lars Rehm, Jürgen Kurths, Reik V Donner, Ricarda Winkelmann, Niklas Boers
Publicado en: Environmental Research Letters, Edición 15/9, 2020, Página(s) 094087, ISSN 1748-9326
Editor: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab9cff

Towards neural Earth system modelling by integrating artificial intelligence in Earth system science

Autores: Christopher Irrgang; Niklas Boers; Niklas Boers; Niklas Boers; Maike Sonnewald; Maike Sonnewald; Maike Sonnewald; Elizabeth A. Barnes; Christopher Kadow; Joanna Staneva; Jan Saynisch-Wagner
Publicado en: Nature Machine Intelligence, Edición 3, 2021, ISSN 2522-5839
Editor: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s42256-021-00374-3

Uncertainties in critical slowing down indicators of observation-based fingerprints of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation

Autores: Ben-Yami, Maya ; Skiba, Vanessa ; Bathiany, Sebastian ; Boers, Niklas
Publicado en: Nature communications, Edición 14, 2023, Página(s) 8344, ISSN 2041-1723
Editor: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44046-9

On the correctness of monadic backward induction

Autores: Brede, Nuria; Botta, Nicola
Publicado en: Journal of Functional Programming, Edición 31, 2021, ISSN 1469-7653
Editor: online
DOI: 10.1017/s0956796821000228

Significance of uncertain phasing between the onsets of stadial–interstadial transitions in different Greenland ice core proxies

Autores: Keno Riechers Niklas Boers
Publicado en: Climate of the past, 2021, ISSN 1814-9332
Editor: Göttingen Copernicus Publ.
DOI: 10.5194/cp-17-1751-2021

Climate-induced speleothem radiocarbon variability on Socotra Island from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Younger Dryas

Autores: Steffen Therre, Jens Fohlmeister, Dominik Fleitmann, Albert Matter, Stephen J. Burns, Jennifer Arps, Andrea Schröder-Ritzrau, Ronny Friedrich, Norbert Frank
Publicado en: Climate of the Past, Edición 16/1, 2020, Página(s) 409-421, ISSN 1814-9332
Editor: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/cp-16-409-2020

Fingerprints for Early Detection of Changes in the AMOC

Autores: L. C. Jackson, R. A. Wood
Publicado en: Journal of Climate, Edición 33/16, 2020, Página(s) 7027-7044, ISSN 0894-8755
Editor: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0034.1

Differentiable programming for Earth system modeling

Autores: Maximilian Gelbrecht, Alistair White, Sebastian Bathiany, and Niklas Boers
Publicado en: Geoscientific Model Development, Edición 16,11, 2023, Página(s) 3123–3135, ISSN 1991-9603
Editor: Göttingen Copernicus Publ.
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-3123-2023

Overturning Pathways Control AMOC Weakening in CMIP6 Models

Autores: Jonathan A. Baker, Michael J. Bell, Laura C. Jackson, Richard Renshaw, Geoffrey K. Vallis, Andrew J. Watson, Richard A. Wood
Publicado en: geophysical Research Letters, Edición 50, 14, 2023, Página(s) e2023GL103381, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2023gl103381

Neural partial differential equations for chaotic systems

Autores: Maximilian Gelbrecht; Maximilian Gelbrecht; Maximilian Gelbrecht; Niklas Boers; Niklas Boers; Niklas Boers; Juergen Kurths; Juergen Kurths
Publicado en: New Journal of Physics, Edición 12, 2021, ISSN 1367-2630
Editor: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.17169/refubium-30839

Resilient Antarctic monsoonal climate prevented ice growth during the Eocene

Autores: Michiel Baatsen, Peter Bijl, Anna von der Heydt, Appy Sluijs, and Henk Dijkstra
Publicado en: Climate of the Past, Edición 20,1, 2024, Página(s) 77-90, ISSN 1814-9332
Editor: Göttingen Copernicus Publ.
DOI: 10.5194/cp-20-77-2024

Lévy noise versus Gaussian-noise-induced transitions in the Ghil–Sellers energy balance model

Autores: Valerio Lucarini, Larissa Serdukova, and Georgios Margazoglou
Publicado en: Nonlin. Processes Geophys., Edición 16077946, 2022, Página(s) 183-205, ISSN 1607-7946
Editor: Copenicus Gesellschaft
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Simulating AMOC tipping driven by internal climate variability with a rare event algorithm

Autores: Matteo Cini, Giuseppe Zappa, Francesco Ragone & Susanna Corti
Publicado en: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Edición 7 (31), 2024, ISSN 2397-3722
Editor: Springer Nature
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A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127 ka: sea ice data compilation and model differences

Autores: Masa Kageyama, Louise C. Sime, Marie Sicard, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Anne de Vernal, Ruediger Stein, David Schroeder, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cecilia Bitz, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Jian Cao, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Danny Feltham, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-B
Publicado en: Climate of the Past, Edición 17/1, 2021, Página(s) 37-62, ISSN 1814-9332
Editor: European geosciences union
DOI: 10.5194/cp-17-37-2021

Early-warning signals for Cenozoic climate transitions

Autores: Christopher Boettner, Georg Klinghammer, Niklas Boers, Thomas Westerhold, Norbert Marwan,
Publicado en: Quaternary Science Reviews, Edición 270, 2021, ISSN 0277-3791
Editor: Pergamon Press Ltd.
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The coupled system response to 250 years of freshwater forcing: Last Interglacial CMIP6–PMIP4 HadGEM3 simulations

Autores: Maria Vittoria Guarino, Louise C. Sime, Rachel Diamond, Jeff Ridley, and David Schroeder
Publicado en: Climate of the Past, Edición 19, 2023, Página(s) 865–881, ISSN 1814-9324
Editor: European Geosciences Union (EGU).
DOI: 10.5194/cp-19-865-2023

Orbital insolation variations, intrinsic climate variability, and Quaternary glaciations

Autores: Keno Riechers, Takahito Mitsui, Niklas Boers, and Michael Ghil
Publicado en: Climate of the Past, Edición 18, 2022, Página(s) 863-893, ISSN 1814-9324
Editor: European Geosciences Union (EGU).
DOI: 10.5194/cp-18-863-2022

On some aspects of the response to stochastic and deterministic forcings

Autores: Gutiérrez, Manuel Santos, and Valerio Lucarini.
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Editor: IOPScience
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"""Rate-induced tipping: thresholds, edge states and connecting orbits"

Autores: Wieczorek, Sebastian, Chun Xie, and Peter Ashwin.
Publicado en: Nonlinearity, Edición 36.6, 2023, Página(s) 3238, ISSN 1361-6544
Editor: IOP Science
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Warning signs for non-Markovian bifurcations: colour blindness and scaling laws

Autores: Kuehn, Christian; Lux, Kerstin; Neamtu, Alexandra
Publicado en: Proceedings of the Royal Academy A, Edición 8/12, 2022, ISSN 1471-2946
Editor: The Royal Society
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The Pleistocene Glacial Cycles and Millennial-Scale Climate Variability

Autores: Peter Ditelvsen
Publicado en: Atmosphere-Ocean, Edición 60:3-4, 2022, Página(s) 233-244, ISSN 1480-9214
Editor: Taylor and Francis Ltd.
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Seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon onset with echo state networks.

Autores: Mitsui, T., Boers, N.
Publicado en: Environmental research letters, Edición 16, 2021, Página(s) 074024, ISSN 1748-9326
Editor: Institute of Physics Publishing
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Ice core evidence for major volcanic eruptions at the onset of Dansgaard–Oeschger warming events

Autores: Johannes Lohmann and Anders Svensson
Publicado en: Climate of the Past, Edición 18, 2022, Página(s) 2021-2043, ISSN 1814-9332
Editor: Copernicus
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Exploring the impact of atmospheric forcing and basal drag on the Antarctic Ice Sheet under Last Glacial Maximum conditions

Autores: Javier Blasco, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya
Publicado en: The Cryosphere, Edición 15/1, 2021, Página(s) 215-231, ISSN 1994-0424
Editor: Copernicus
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Effect of orographic gravity wave drag on Northern Hemisphere climate in transient simulations of the last deglaciation

Autores: Brooke Snoll, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Paul J. Valdes, Amanda C. Maycock, Lauren J. Gregoire
Publicado en: Climate dynamics, 2022, ISSN 0930-7575
Editor: Springer Verlag
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Lost options commitment: how short-term policies affect long-term scope of action

Autores: Marina Martínez Montero, Nuria Brede, Victor Couplet, Michel Crucifix, Nicola Botta, Claudia Wienerse
Publicado en: Oxford open climate change, 2024, Página(s) kgae004, ISSN 2634-4068
Editor: Oxford University Press
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Reversibility of Greenland ice sheet mass loss under artificial carbon dioxide removal scenarios

Autores: Höning, Dennis, Matteo Willeit, and Andrey Ganopolski
Publicado en: Environmental Research Letters, 2024, ISSN 1748-9326
Editor: Institute of Physics Publishing
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Role of mineral dust in the nitrate preservation during the glacial period: Insights from the RICE ice core

Autores: Abhijith U.Venugopala Nancy A.N.Bertler Rebecca L.Pyne Helle A.Kjær V. Holly L.Winton Paul A.Mayewski Giuseppe Cortesea
Publicado en: Global and Planetary change, 2022, ISSN 0921-8181
Editor: Elsevier BV
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Atmospheric CO2 control of spontaneous millennial-scale ice age climate oscillations

Autores: Guido Vettoretti Peter D. Ditlevsen Markus Jochum S. Olander Rasmussen
Publicado en: Nature Geoscience volume, Edición 17520908, 2022, Página(s) 300-306, ISSN 1752-0908
Editor: Springer
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The contribution of melt ponds to enhanced Arctic sea-ice melt during the Last Interglacial

Autores: Diamond, R Sime, LC Schroeder, D Guarino, M-V
Publicado en: The Cryosphere, 2021, ISSN 1994-0416
Editor: Copernicus Group
DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-5099-2021

Random templex encodes topological tipping points in noise-driven chaotic dynamics

Autores: Gisela D. Charó; Michael Ghil; Denisse Sciamarella
Publicado en: Chaos, Edición 33, 2023, Página(s) 103141, ISSN 1054-1500
Editor: American Institute of Physics
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The role of Northern Hemisphere summer insolation for millennial-scale climate variability during the penultimate glacial

Autores: Jens Fohlmeister, Marc Luetscher, Christoph Spötl, Andrea Schröder-Ritzrau, Birgit Schröder, Norbert Frank, René Eichstädter, Martin Trüssel, Vanessa Skiba & Niklas Boers
Publicado en: Communications Earth & Environment, Edición 4, 245, 2023, ISSN 2662-4435
Editor: Springer Nature
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Critical slowing down in dynamical systems driven by nonstationary correlated noise

Autores: Christopher Boettner, Niklas Boers
Publicado en: Physical Review Research, Edición 4 (013230), 2022, ISSN 0003-0503
Editor: American Physical Society
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Global footprints of dansgaard-oeschger oscillations in a GCM

Autores: Kenji Izumi, Edward Armstrong, Paul Valdes,
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Editor: Pergamon Press Ltd.
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Global reorganization of atmospheric circulation during Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles

Autores: Jens Fohlmeister, Natasha Sekhon, Andrea Columbu, Guido Vettoretti, Nils Weitzel, Kira Rehfeld, Cristina Veiga-Pires, Maya Ben-Yami, Norbert Marwan, and Niklas Boers
Publicado en: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Edición 120 (36) e2302283120, 2023, ISSN 0027-8424
Editor: National Academy of Sciences
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Abrupt climate change as a rate-dependent cascading tipping point

Autores: Johannes Lohmann, Daniele Castellana, Peter D. Ditlevsen, Henk A. Dijkstra
Publicado en: Earth System Dynamics, 2021, ISSN 2190-4987
Editor: Göttingen: Copernicus Publ
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Hysteresis of the Earth system under positive and negative CO 2 emissions

Autores: Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Thomas F Stocker, Fortunat Joos
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Rate-induced tracking for concave or d-concave transitions in a time-dependent environment with application in ecology

Autores: J. Dueñas, I. P. Longo, R. Obaya
Publicado en: CHAOS, Edición 33 (12), 2023, ISSN 1054-1500
Editor: American Institute of Physics
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Multi-proxy constraints on Atlantic circulation dynamics since the last ice age

Autores: Frerk Pöppelmeier, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Jörg Lippold, Fortunat Joos & Thomas F. Stocker
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The Significance of the Melt-Pond Scheme in a CMIP6 Global Climate Model

Autores: Rachel Diamond, David Schroeder, Louise C. Sime, Jeff Ridley, and Danny Feltham
Publicado en: Jounal of Climate, 2023, Página(s) 249–268, ISSN 0894-8755
Editor: American Meteorological Society
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Climate response and sensitivity: time scales and late tipping points

Autores: Robbin Bastiaansen; Peter Ashwin; Anna S. von der Heydt
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Editor: Royal Society
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Global oscillatory modes in high-end climate modeling and reanalyses

Autores: Yizhak Feliks Justin Small Michael Ghil
Publicado en: Climate Dynamics, Edición 57, 2021, Página(s) 3385-3411, ISSN 0930-7575
Editor: Springer Verlag
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Detection of dynamical regime transitions with lacunarity as a multiscale recurrence quantification measure

Autores: Tobias Braun, Vishnu R. Unni, R. I. Sujith, Juergen Kurths, Norbert Marwan
Publicado en: Nonlinear Dynamics, 2021, ISSN 0924-090X
Editor: Kluwer Academic Publishers
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Probabilistic measures for biological adaptation and resilience

Autores: Jorge M. Ramirez, Juan Restrepo, Valerio Lucarini, and David Weston
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Editor: APS
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Influence of Elevated Nd Fluxes on the Northern Nd Isotope End Member of the Atlantic During the Early Holocene

Autores: Frerk Pöppelmeier, Jeemijn Scheen, Patrick Blaser, Jörg Lippold, Marcus Gutjahr, Thomas F. Stocker
Publicado en: Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, Edición 35/11, 2020, ISSN 2572-4517
Editor: Wiley-Blackwell
DOI: 10.1029/2020pa003973

Responsibility Under Uncertainty: Which Climate Decisions Matter Most?

Autores: Nicola Botta, Nuria Brede, Michel Crucifix, Cezar Ionescu, Patrik Jansson, Zheng Li, Marina Martínez & Tim Richter
Publicado en: Environmental Modeling & Assessment, 2023, ISSN 1420-2026
Editor: Kluwer Academic Publishers
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Overshooting the critical threshold for the Greenland ice sheet

Autores: Bochow, N., Poltronieri, A., Robinson, A., Montoya, M., Rypdal, M., & Boers, N.
Publicado en: Nature, Edición 622(7983), 2023, Página(s) 528-536., ISSN 1476-4687
Editor: Nature publishing group
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Fingerprinting Heatwaves and Cold Spells and Assessing Their Response to Climate Change Using Large Deviation Theory

Autores: Vera Melinda Galfi; Valerio Lucarini
Publicado en: Physical Review Letters, Edición 127, 2021, ISSN 1079-7114
Editor: American Physical Society
DOI: 10.1103/physrevlett.127.058701

Distinguishing between deterministic oscillations and noise

Autores: Rowland Adams, J., Newman, J. & Stefanovska, A.
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Editor: EDP Sciences
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Response theory and phase transitions for the thermodynamic limit of interacting identical systems

Autores: Valerio Lucarini, Grigorios A. Pavliotis, Niccolò Zagli
Publicado en: Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Edición 476/2244, 2020, Página(s) 20200688, ISSN 1364-5021
Editor: Royal Society of London
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Melt in the Greenland EastGRIP ice core reveals Holocene warm events

Autores: Julien Westhoff, Giulia Sinnl, Anders Svensson, Johannes Freitag, Helle Astrid Kjær, Paul Vallelonga, Bo Vinther, Sepp Kipfstuhl, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen and Ilka Weikusat
Publicado en: Climate of the past, Edición 18, 2022, Página(s) 1011–1034, ISSN 1814-9324
Editor: European Geosciences Union (EGU).
DOI: 10.5194/cp-18-1011-2022

Glacial Abrupt Climate Change as a Multiscale Phenomenon Resulting from Monostable Excitable Dynamics

Autores: Keno Riechers, Georg Gottwald, and Niklas Boers
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Editor: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0308.1

Tipping points induced by parameter drift in an excitable ocean model

Autores: Stefano Pierini, Michael Ghil
Publicado en: Scientific Reports, Edición 11/1, 2021, ISSN 2045-2322
Editor: Nature Publishing Group
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The Effect of Past Saturation Changes on Noble Gas Reconstructions of Mean Ocean Temperature

Autores: Frerk Pöppelmeier, Daniel Baggenstos, Markus Grimmer, Zhijun Liu, Jochen Schmitt, Hubertus Fischer, Thomas F. Stocker
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición 50, 2023, Página(s) 6, e2022GL102055, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
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Latitudinal storm track shift in a reduced two-level model of the atmosphere

Autores: Melanie Kobras, Valerio Lucarini, Maarten H.P. Ambaum
Publicado en: Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, Edición 458, 2024, Página(s) 133926, ISSN 0167-2789
Editor: Elsevier BV
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Paleoclimate-conditioning reveals a North Africa land–atmosphere tipping point

Autores: Peter O. Hopcroft Paul J. Valdes
Publicado en: PNAS, Edición 118 (45), 2021, ISSN 0027-8424
Editor: National Academy of Sciences
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Reduction methods in climate dynamics—A brief review

Autores: Felix Hummel, Peter Ashwin & Christian Kuehn
Publicado en: Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, Edición 448, 2023, Página(s) 133678, ISSN 1872-8022
Editor: ISSN National Centre for The Netherlands
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Arnold Maps with Noise: Differentiability and Non-monotonicity of the Rotation Number

Autores: L. Marangio, J. Sedro, S. Galatolo, A. Di Garbo, M. Ghil
Publicado en: Journal of Statistical Physics, Edición 179/5-6, 2020, Página(s) 1594-1624, ISSN 0022-4715
Editor: Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers
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Ensemble Oscillation Correction (EnOC): Leveraging Oscillatory Modes to Improve Forecasts of Chaotic Systems

Autores: Eviatar Bach Safa Mote V. Krishnamurthy Michael Ghil Eugenia Kalnay
Publicado en: Journal of Climate, 2021, ISSN 0894-8755
Editor: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0624.1

Rough basin boundaries in high dimension: Can we classify them experimentally?

Autores: Tamás Bódai, Valerio Lucarini
Publicado en: Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, Edición 30/10, 2020, Página(s) 103105, ISSN 1054-1500
Editor: American Institute of Physics
DOI: 10.1063/5.0002577

Climate and structure of the 8.2 ka event reconstructed from three speleothems from Germany

Autores: Sarah Waltgenbach, Denis Scholz, Christoph Spötl, Dana F.C. Riechelmann, Klaus P. Jochum, Jens Fohlmeister, Andrea Schröder-Ritzrau
Publicado en: Global and Planetary Change, Edición 193, 2020, Página(s) 103266, ISSN 0921-8181
Editor: Elsevier BV
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Applications of large deviation theory in geophysical fluid dynamics and climate science

Autores: Vera Melinda Gálfi, Valerio Lucarini, Francesco Ragone, Jeroen Wouters
Publicado en: La Rivista del Nuovo Cimento, 2021, ISSN 0393-697X
Editor: Societa Italiana di Fisica
DOI: 10.1007/s40766-021-00020-z

Rough Center Manifolds

Autores: Alexandra Neamţu; Christian Kuehn
Publicado en: SIAM Journal on Mathematical Analysis, Edición 53.4, 2021, Página(s) 3912-3957, ISSN 0036-1410
Editor: Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
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Complex systems approaches for Earth system data analysis

Autores: Niklas Boers, Jürgen Kurths, Norbert Marwan
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Editor: IOP Publishing
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Homogenization of Fully-Coupled Chaotic Fast-Slow Systems via Intermediate Stochastic Regularization

Autores: Engel, Maximilian; Gkogkas, Marios-Antonios; Kuehn, Christian
Publicado en: Journal of statistical physics, Edición 183, 2021, ISSN 0022-4715
Editor: Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers
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Network dynamics on graphops

Autores: Christian Kuehn
Publicado en: New Journal of Physics, Edición 22/5, 2020, Página(s) 053030, ISSN 1367-2630
Editor: Institute of Physics Publishing
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Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review

Autores: Nico Wunderling, Anna S. von der Heydt, Yevgeny Aksenov, Stephen Barker, Robbin Bastiaansen, Victor Brovkin, Maura Brunetti, Victor Couplet, Thomas Kleinen, Caroline H. Lear, Johannes Lohmann, Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta, Sacha Sinet, Didier Swingedouw, Ricarda Winkelmann, Pallavi Anand, Jonathan Barichivich, Sebastian Bathiany, Mara Baudena, John T. Bruun, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Helen K. Coxall, David
Publicado en: Earth system dynamics, Edición 15, 2024, Página(s) 41–74, ISSN 2190-4987
Editor: Göttingen: Copernicus Publ.
DOI: 10.5194/esd-15-41-2024

Event synchrony measures for functional climate network analysis: A case study on South American rainfall dynamics

Autores: Frederik Wolf, Jurek Bauer, Niklas Boers, Reik V. Donner
Publicado en: Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, Edición 30/3, 2020, Página(s) 033102, ISSN 1054-1500
Editor: American Institute of Physics
DOI: 10.1063/1.5134012

Analysis of a bistable climate toy model with physics-based machine learning methods

Autores: Maximilian Gelbrecht, Valerio Lucarini, Niklas Boers, Jürgen Kurths
Publicado en: The European Physical Journal Special Topics, 2021, ISSN 1951-6355
Editor: EDP Sciences
DOI: 10.1140/epjs/s11734-021-00175-0

Chameleon attractors in turbulent flows

Autores: Tommaso Alberti, Francois Daviaud, Reik V. Donner, Berengere Dubrulle, Davide Faranda, Valerio Lucarini
Publicado en: Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Edición 168, 2023, Página(s) 113195, ISSN 1873-2887
Editor: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2023.113195

Extreme cold events in Europe under a reduced AMOC

Autores: Virna L Meccia, Claudia Simolo, Katinka Bellomo and Susanna Corti
Publicado en: Environmental Research Letters, Edición 19, 1, 2023, Página(s) 014054, ISSN 1748-9326
Editor: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad14b0

Sample Paths Estimates for Stochastic Fast-Slow Systems Driven by Fractional Brownian Motion

Autores: Katharina Eichinger, Christian Kuehn, Alexandra Neamţu
Publicado en: Journal of Statistical Physics, Edición 179/5-6, 2020, Página(s) 1222-1266, ISSN 0022-4715
Editor: Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers
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Limited Retreat of the Wilkes Basin Ice Sheet During the Last Interglacial

Autores: J. Sutter, O. Eisen, M. Werner, K. Grosfeld, T. Kleiner, H. Fischer
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición 47/13, 2020, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
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Can we use linear response theory to assess geoengineering strategies?

Autores: Tamás Bódai, Valerio Lucarini, Frank Lunkeit
Publicado en: Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, Edición 30/2, 2020, Página(s) 023124, ISSN 1054-1500
Editor: American Institute of Physics
DOI: 10.1063/1.5122255

Assessing the impact of parametric uncertainty on tipping points of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Autores: Kerstin Lux, Peter Ashwin, Richard Wood and Christian Kuehn
Publicado en: Environmental Research Letters, Edición 17489326, 2022, ISSN 1748-9326
Editor: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac7602

Asymptotic behavior of the forecast–assimilation process with unstable dynamics

Autores: Dan Crisan and Michael Ghil
Publicado en: Chaos, Edición 33, 2023, Página(s) 023139, ISSN 1054-1500
Editor: American Institute of Physics
DOI: 10.1063/5.0105590

Existence and influence of mixed states in a model of vegetation patterns

Autores: Lilian Vanderveken, Marina Martínez Montero, and Michel Crucifix
Publicado en: NPG, Edición 30, 2023, Página(s) 585-599, ISSN 1023-5809
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.5194/npg-30-585-2023

Estimating Remaining Carbon Budgets Using Temperature Responses Informed by CMIP6

Autores: Martin Rypdal, Niklas Boers, Hege-Beate Fredriksen, Kai-Uwe Eiselt, Andreas Johansen, Andreas Martinsen, Endre Falck Mentzoni, Rune G. Graversen and Kristoffer Rypdal
Publicado en: Frontiers in Climate, 2021, ISSN 2624-9553
Editor: Lausanne Frontiers Media SA
DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2021.686058

The physics of climate variability and climate change

Autores: Michael Ghil, Valerio Lucarini
Publicado en: Reviews of Modern Physics, Edición 92/3, 2020, ISSN 0034-6861
Editor: American Physical Society
DOI: 10.1103/revmodphys.92.035002

Dansgaard–Oeschger-like events of the penultimate climate cycle: the loess point of view

Autores: Denis-Didier Rousseau, Pierre Antoine, Niklas Boers, France Lagroix, Michael Ghil, Johanna Lomax, Markus Fuchs, Maxime Debret, Christine Hatté, Olivier Moine, Caroline Gauthier, Diana Jordanova, Neli Jordanova
Publicado en: Climate of the Past, Edición 16/2, 2020, Página(s) 713-727, ISSN 1814-9332
Editor: Climate of the past
DOI: 10.5194/cp-16-713-2020

Changes in Local and Global Climate Feedbacks in the Absence of Interactive Clouds: Southern Ocean–Climate Interactions in Two Intermediate-Complexity Models

Autores: Patrik L. Pfister, Thomas F. Stocker
Publicado en: Journal of Climate, Edición 34/2, 2021, Página(s) 755-772, ISSN 0894-8755
Editor: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0113.1

Multistability and Transient Response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions

Autores: Dennis Höning, Matteo Willeit, Reinhard Calov, Volker Klemann, Meike Bagge, Andrey Ganopolski
Publicado en: Geophysical research letters, Edición 50, 6, 2023, Página(s) e2022GL101827, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
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A punctuated equilibrium analysis of the climate evolution of cenozoic exhibits a hierarchy of abrupt transitions

Autores: Denis-Didier Rousseau, Witold Bagniewski & Valerio Lucarini
Publicado en: Scientific Reports, Edición 13, 2023, Página(s) 11290, ISSN 2332-2675
Editor: Springer
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Robustness of precipitation Emergent Constraints in CMIP6 models

Autores: Olivia Ferguglia, Jost von Hardenberg and Elisa Palazzi
Publicado en: Climate Dynamics, 2023, ISSN 1432-0894
Editor: Springer
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A potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may stabilise eastern Amazonian rainforests

Autores: Da Nian, Sebastian Bathiany, Maya Ben-Yami, Lana L. Blaschke, Marina Hirota, Regina R. Rodrigues & Niklas Boers
Publicado en: Communications Earth & Environment, Edición 4, 470, 2023, ISSN 2662-4435
Editor: Springer Nature,
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-023-01123-7

Numerical continuation for a fast-reaction system and its cross-diffusion limit

Autores: Christian Kuehn, Cinzia Soresina
Publicado en: SN Partial Differential Equations and Applications, Edición 1/2, 2020, ISSN 2662-2963
Editor: SpringerLink
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Destabilisation of the Subpolar North Atlantic prior to the Little Ice Age

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Identifying the Mechanisms of DO-scale Oscillations in a Gcm: a Salt Oscillator Triggered by the Laurentide Ice Sheet

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Autores: Abhijith U. Venugopal, Nancy A. N. Bertler, Jeffrey P. Severinghaus, Edward J. Brook, Giuseppe Cortese, James E. Lee, Thomas Blunier, Paul A. Mayewski, Helle A. Kjær, Lionel Carter, Michael E. Weber, Richard H. Levy, Rebecca L. Pyne & Marcus J. Vandergoes
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Dynamical landscape and multistability of a climate model

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How might a collapse in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation affect rainfall over tropical South America

Autores: Peter Good, Niklas Boers, Chris A. Boulton, Jason A. Lowe, Ingo Richter
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Estimating rate-induced tipping via asymptotic series and a Melnikov-like method

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Review article: Hilbert problems for the climate sciences in the 21st century – 20 years later

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Typicality of the 2021 Western North America summer heatwave

Autores: Valerio Lucarini, Vera Melinda Galfi, Jacopo Riboldi and Gabriele Messori
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Boundary value problems of elliptic and parabolic type with boundary data of negative regularity

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Interrupting vaccination policies can greatly spread SARS-CoV-2 and enhance mortality from COVID-19 disease: The AstraZeneca case for France and Italy

Autores: Davide Faranda, Tommaso Alberti, Maxence Arutkin, Valerio Lembo, Valerio Lucarini
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A universal route to explosive phenomena.

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Editor: American Association for the Advancement of Science
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Critical slowing down suggests that the western Greenland Ice Sheet is close to a tipping point

Autores: Niklas Boers, Martin Rypdal
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Editor: National Academy of Sciences
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Automatic detection of abrupt transitions in paleoclimate records

Autores: W. Bagniewski, M. Ghil, D. D. Rousseau
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Editor: American Institute of Physics
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Risk of tipping the overturning circulation due to increasing rates of ice melt

Autores: Johannes Lohmann, Peter D. Ditlevsen
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Modeling the marine chromium cycle: new constraints on global-scale processes

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A New Method to Compute Transition Probabilities in Multi-Stable Stochastic Dynamical Systems: Application to the Wind-Driven Ocean Circulation

Autores: René M. van Westen, Sourabh Kotnala, Sven Baars, Fred W. Wubs, Henk A. Dijkstra
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Simulated stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during the Last Glacial Maximum

Autores: Frerk Pöppelmeier, Jeemijn Scheen, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Thomas F. Stocker
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Increased wintertime European atmospheric blocking frequencies in General Circulation Models with an eddy-permitting ocean

Autores: Simon L. L. Michel, Anna S. von der Heydt, René M. van Westen, Michiel L. J. Baatsen & Henk A. Dijkstra
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Abrupt CO 2 release to the atmosphere under glacial and early interglacial climate conditions

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Uncertainty Quantification of Bifurcations in Random Ordinary Differential Equations

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Modelling the effect of aerosol and greenhouse gas forcing on the South Asian and East Asian monsoons with an intermediate-complexity climate model

Autores: Lucy G. Recchia and Valerio Lucarini
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A portable Lightweight In Situ Analysis (LISA) box for ice and snow analysis

Autores: Kjær, Helle Astrid Lisa Lolk Hauge Marius Simonsen Yoldi, Zuriñe Iben Koldtoft Maria Hörholdt Johannes Freitag Sepp Kipfstuhl Svensson, Anders Paul Vallelonga
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Stochastic resonance for nonequilibrium systems

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Global vegetation resilience linked to water availability and variability

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Evasion of tipping in complex systems through spatial pattern formation

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Spectroscopy of phase transitions for multiagent systems

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Remotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales

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Review article: Dynamical systems, algebraic topology and the climate sciences

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Volcanism and the Greenland ice cores: A new tephrochronological framework for the last glacial-interglacial transition (LGIT) based on cryptotephra deposits in three ice cores

Autores: Eliza Cook, Peter M.Abbott, Nick J.G.Pearcec, Seyedhamidreza Mojtabavid, Anders Svensson, Anna J. Bournea, Sune O.Rasmussen, Inger K.Seierstad, Bo M.Vinther, Joseph Harrisone, Elliott Street, Jørgen Peder Steffensen, Frank Wilhelms, Siwan M. Davies
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Reduced-order models for coupled dynamical systems: Data-driven methods and the Koopman operator

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Connecting a direct and a Galerkin approach to slow manifolds in infinite dimensions

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Emergent structure and dynamics of tropical forest-grassland landscapes

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CH4 and N2O fluctuations during the penultimate deglaciation

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How dusty was the last glacial maximum over Europe?

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Summer surface air temperature proxies point to near-sea-ice-free conditions in the Arctic at 127 ka

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A reliable benchmark of the last 640,000 years millennial climate variability

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Physical invariant measures and tipping probabilities for chaotic attractors of asymptotically autonomous systems

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Surprises for climate stability

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A Data-Based Minimal Model of Episodic Inflation Events at Volcanoes

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Multivariate Estimations of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity From Short Transient Warming Simulations

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Crossover and peaks in the Pleistocene climate spectrum; understanding from simple ice age models

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Impact of an AMOC weakening on the stability of the southern Amazon rainforest

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Abrupt climate changes and the astronomical theory: are they related?

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Machine learning approach reveals strong link between obliquity amplitude increase and the Mid-Brunhes transition

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Evaluating the Performance of Climate Models Based on Wasserstein Distance

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Reliability of vegetation resilience estimates depends on biomass density

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A Multi-Model Ensemble Kalman Filter for Data Assimilation and Forecasting

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Pronounced loss of Amazon rainforest resilience since the early 2000s

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Extensional equality preservation and verified generic programming

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Extratropical Low‐Frequency Variability With ENSO Forcing: A Reduced‐Order Coupled Model Study

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Stochastic Parameterizations and the Climate Response to External Forcing: An Experiment With EC‐Earth

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Theoretical tools for understanding the climate crisis from Hasselmann's programme and beyond

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Introduction to the Special Issue on the Statistical Mechanics of Climate

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Critical transitions for scalar nonautonomous systems with concave nonlinearities: some rigorous estimates

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Sea ice feedbacks influence the isotopic signature of Greenland ice sheet elevation changes: last interglacial HadCM3 simulations

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Evaporative controls on Antarctic precipitation: an ECHAM6 model study using innovative water tracer diagnostics

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Analysis of a two-layer energy balance model: Long time behavior and greenhouse effect

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Controls on propagation of the Indian monsoon onset in an idealised model

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Future climate change shaped by inter-model differences in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation response

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An annually resolved chronology for the Mount Brown South ice cores, East Antarctica

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Green Sahara tipping points in transient climate model simulations of the Holocene

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Projections of the Transient State-Dependency of Climate Feedbacks

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Sample paths of white noise in spaces with dominating mixed smoothness

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Bipolar volcanic synchronization of abrupt climate change in Greenland and Antarctic ice cores during the last glacial period

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Coupled Climate-Economy-Ecology (CoCEB) Modeling: A Dynamic Approach

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State-dependent impact of major volcanic eruptions observed in ice-core records of the last glacial period

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Eddy saturation in a reduced two-level model of the atmosphere

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Mechanics and thermodynamics of a new minimal model of the atmosphere

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Numerical continuation for fractional PDEs: sharp teeth and bloated snakes

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Empirical evidence for recent global declines in vegetation resilience

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Editor: Elsevier BV
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A Random Dynamical Systems Perspective on Isochronicity for Stochastic Oscillations

Autores: Maximilian Engel; Christian Kuehn
Publicado en: Communications in Mathematical Physics, Edición 386, 2021, ISSN 1432-0916
Editor: Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany
DOI: 10.1007/s00220-021-04077-z

Neodymium isotopes as a paleo-water mass tracer: A model-data reassessment

Autores: Frerk Pöppelmeier; Jörg Lippold; Patrick Blaser; Marcus Gutjahr; Martin Frank; Thomas F. Stocker
Publicado en: Quaternary Science Review, Edición 279, 2022, ISSN 0277-3791
Editor: Pergamon Press Ltd.
DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2022.107404

Holocene climate forcings and lacustrine regime shifts in the Indian summer monsoon realm

Autores: Sushma Prasad, Norbert Marwan, Deniz Eroglu, Bedartha Goswami, Praveen K. Mishra, Birgit Gaye, A. Anoop, N. Basavaiah, Martina Stebich, Arshid Jehangir
Publicado en: Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 2020, ISSN 0197-9337
Editor: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
DOI: 10.1002/esp.5004

Random attractors via pathwise mild solutions for stochastic parabolic evolution equations

Autores: Christian Kuehn; Alexandra Neamţu; Stefanie Sonner
Publicado en: Journal of Evolution Equations, Edición 21, 2021, Página(s) 2631–2663, ISSN 1424-3202
Editor: Springer Nature Switzerland AG
DOI: 10.1007/s00028-021-00699-x

Impacts of the PMIP4 ice sheets on Northern Hemisphere climate during the last glacial period

Autores: Kenji Izumi, Paul Valdes, Ruza Ivanovic, Lauren Gregoire
Publicado en: Climate Dynamics, 2022, ISSN 0930-7575
Editor: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06456-1

Decomposing the dynamics of the Lorenz 1963 model using unstable periodic orbits: Averages, transitions, and quasi-invariant sets

Autores: Chiara Cecilia Maiocchi, Valerio Lucarini, Andrey Gritsun,
Publicado en: AIP Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, Edición 32, 033129, 2022, ISSN 1054-1500
Editor: American Institute of Physics
DOI: 10.1063/5.0067673

Sensitivity of the tropical dust cycle to glacial abrupt climate changes

Autores: Hopcroft, P. O., Pichat, S., Valdes, P. J., & Kienast, S. S
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición 50.1, 2023, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2022gl101197

Quantification and interpretation of the climate variability record

Autores: Anna S. von der Heydt, Peter Ashwin, Charles D. Camp, Michel Crucifix, Henk A. Dijkstra, Peter Ditlevsen, Timothy M. Lenton
Publicado en: Global and Planetary Change, Edición 197, 2021, Página(s) 103399, ISSN 0921-8181
Editor: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2020.103399

SURFER v2.0: a flexible and simple model linking anthropogenic CO2 emissions and solar radiation modification to ocean acidification and sea level rise

Autores: Marina Martínez Montero, Michel Crucifix, Victor Couplet, Nuria Brede, and Nicola Botta
Publicado en: Geosci. Model Dev., Edición 19919603, 2022, Página(s) 8059-8084, ISSN 1991-9603
Editor: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-15-8059-2022

Synchronization phenomena observed in glacial–interglacial cycles simulated in an Earth system model of intermediate complexity

Autores: Takahito Mitsui, Matteo Willeit, and Niklas Boers
Publicado en: Earth System Dynamics, Edición 14, 6, 2023, Página(s) 1277–1294, ISSN 2190-4987
Editor: Göttingen Copernicus Publ.
DOI: 10.5194/esd-14-1277-2023

Extreme Sensitivity and Climate Tipping Points

Autores: Peter Ashwin, Anna S. von der Heydt
Publicado en: Journal of Statistical Physics, Edición 179/5-6, 2020, Página(s) 1531-1552, ISSN 0022-4715
Editor: Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers
DOI: 10.1007/s10955-019-02425-x

Climate intervention on a high-emissions pathway could delay but not prevent West Antarctic Ice Sheet demise

Autores: J. Sutter, A. Jones, T. L. Frölicher, C. Wirths & T. F. Stocker
Publicado en: Nature Climate Change, 2023, ISSN 1758-678X
Editor: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01738-w

Detection of abrupt changes in East Asian monsoon from Chinese loess and speleothem records

Autores: Denis-Didier Rousseau, Witold Bagniewski, Youbin Sun
Publicado en: Global and Planetary Change, Edición 227, 2023, Página(s) 104154, ISSN 0921-8181
Editor: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104154

The South American monsoon approaches a critical transition in response to deforestation

Autores: Nils Bochow and Niklas Boers
Publicado en: science advances, Edición 9 (40), 2023, ISSN 2375-2548
Editor: Science Advances
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.add9973

Slow manifolds for infinite-dimensional evolution equations

Autores: Felix Hummel and Chrsitian Kuehn
Publicado en: Commentarii Mathematici Helvetici, Edición 14208946, 2022, Página(s) 61-132, ISSN 1420-8946
Editor: Swiss Mathematical Society
DOI: 10.4171/cmh/527

Predictors and predictands of linear response in spatially extended systems

Autores: Umberto Maria Tomasini, Valerio Lucarini
Publicado en: The European Physical Journal Special Topics, 2021, ISSN 1951-6355
Editor: EDP Sciences
DOI: 10.1140/epjs/s11734-021-00158-1

Model-Data Comparison of Antarctic Winter Sea-Ice Extent and Southern Ocean Sea-Surface Temperatures During Marine Isotope Stage 5e

Autores: M. Chadwick, L. C. Sime, C. S. Allen, M.-V. Guarino
Publicado en: Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, Edición 38, 6, 2023, Página(s) e2022PA004600, ISSN 2572-4525
Editor: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
DOI: 10.1029/2022pa004600

Global stability properties of the climate: Melancholia states, invariant measures, and phase transitions

Autores: Valerio Lucarini, Tamás Bódai
Publicado en: Nonlinearity, Edición 33/9, 2020, Página(s) R59-R92, ISSN 0951-7715
Editor: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1361-6544/ab86cc

Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction

Autores: Simon L. L. Michel, Didier Swingedouw, Pablo Ortega, Guillaume Gastineau, Juliette Mignot, Gerard McCarthy, Myriam Khodri
Publicado en: Nature communications, Edición 5176, 2022, ISSN 2041-1723
Editor: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-32704-3

Beyond Forcing Scenarios: Predicting Climate Change through Response Operators in a Coupled General Circulation Model.

Autores: Valerio Lucarini; Valerio Lucarini; Valerio Lembo; Francesco Ragone
Publicado en: Scientific Reports, Vol 10, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2020), Edición 18, 2020, ISSN 2045-2322
Editor: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-65297-2

Multistability and intermediate tipping of the Atlantic Ocean circulation

Autores: Johannes Lohmann; Henk A. Dijkstra; Markus Jochum; Valerio Lucarini; Peter D. Ditlevsen
Publicado en: SCIENCE ADVANCES, Edición 10, 12, 2024, ISSN 2375-2548
Editor: American Association for the Advancement of Science
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adi4253

Dansgaard–Oeschger events in climate models: review and baseline Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3) protocol

Autores: Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Louise C. Sime, and the D–O community members
Publicado en: Climate of the Past, Edición 19, 2023, Página(s) 915–942, ISSN 1814-9324
Editor: European Geosciences Union (EGU).
DOI: 10.5194/cp-19-915-2023

The PaleoJump database for abrupt transitions in past climates

Autores: Witold Bagniewski, Michael Ghil & Denis-Didier Rousseau
Publicado en: Sci Rep, Edición 13, 2023, Página(s) 4472, ISSN 2045-2322
Editor: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-30592-1

Reconstructing Historical Climate Fields With Deep Learning

Autores: Nils Bochow, Anna Poltronieri, Martin Rypdal, Niklas Boers
Publicado en: arXiv, Edición [preprint], 2023
Editor: arXiv
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2311.18348

A Minimal Endogenous Business Cycle Model with Memory Effects

Autores: Daniel Ohara and Michael Ghil
Publicado en: Macroeconomics: Prices, Business Fluctuations, & Cycles eJournal, 2023
Editor: SSRN
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3959179

Persistent synchronization of heterogeneous networks with time-dependent linear diffusive coupling

Autores: Jardón-Kojakhmetov, Hildeberto ; Kuehn, Christian ; Longo, Iacopo P.
Publicado en: ArXiv, Edición [prerint], 2023
Editor: Cornell University
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2305.05747

Anticipating critical transitions in multi-dimensional systems driven by time- and state-dependent noise

Autores: Andreas Morr, Keno Riechers, Leonardo Rydin Gorjão, Niklas Boers
Publicado en: arXiv, Edición [preprint], 2023
Editor: ArXiv
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2308.16773

Tipping Point Detection and Early-Warnings in climate, ecological, and human systems

Autores: Vasilis Dakos, Chris A. Boulton, Josh E. Buxton, Jesse F. Abrams, David I. Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Lana Blaschke, Niklas Boers, Daniel Dylewsky, Carlos López-Martínez, Isobel Parry, Paul Ritchie, Bregje van der Bolt, Larissa van der Laan, Els Weinans, and Sonia Kéfi
Publicado en: EGUSphere, Edición [preprint], 2023
Editor: Copenicus
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-1773

Detecting and Attributing Change in Climate and Complex Systems: Foundations, Kolmogorov Modes, and Nonlinear Fingerprints

Autores: Valerio Lucarini, Mickaël Chekroun
Publicado en: arXiV, Edición [preprint], 2023
Editor: Cornell University
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2212.02628

The influence of present-day regional surface mass balance uncertainties on the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Autores: Christian Wirths, Johannes Sutter, and Thomas Stocker
Publicado en: EGUsphere, Edición [preprint], 2023
Editor: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-2233

Red noise in continuous-time stochastic modelling

Autores: Andreas Morr, Dörte Kreher, Niklas Boers
Publicado en: arXiv, 2022
Editor: Cornell university
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2212.03566

Spatial correlation increase in single-sensor satellite data reveals loss of Amazon rainforest resilience

Autores: Lana L. Blaschke, Da Nian, Bathiany, Maya Ben-Yami, Taylor Smith, Chris A. Boulton, Niklas Boers
Publicado en: arXiv, Edición [preprint], 2023
Editor: Cornell University
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2310.18540

The Temporal Phasing of Rapid Dansgaard–Oeschger Warming Events Cannot Be Reliably Determined

Autores: John Slattery, Louise C. Sime, Francesco Muschitiello, and Keno Riechers
Publicado en: Climate of the Past discussions, Edición [in review], 2023, ISSN 1814-9324
Editor: European Geosciences Union (EGU).
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-2496

Description and validation of the ice sheet model Nix v1.0

Autores: Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya, and Jorge Alvarez-Solas
Publicado en: EGUSphere, Edición [preprint], 2023
Editor: Copenicus
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-2690

Types, equations, dimensions and the Pi theorem

Autores: Nicola Botta, Patrik Jansson, Guilherme Horta Alvares Da Silva
Publicado en: arXiv, Edición [preprint], 2023
Editor: Cornell university
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2308.09481

Rainfall Seasonality Dominates Critical Precipitation Threshold for the Amazon Forest in the Lpjml Vegetation Model

Autores: NIAN, DA and Bathiany, Sebastian and Sakschewski, Boris and Drüke, Markus and Blaschke, Lana and Ben-Yami, Maya and von Bloh, Werner and Boers, Niklas
Publicado en: SSRN, Edición [preprint], 2023
Editor: SSRN
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.4658035

Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations

Autores: Sina Loriani, Yevgeny Aksenov, David Armstrong McKay, Govindasamy Bala, Andreas Born, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Henk Dijkstra, Jonathan F. Donges, Sybren Drijfhout, Matthew H. England, Alexey V. Fedorov, Laura Jackson, Kai Kornhuber, Gabriele Messori, Francesco Pausata, Stefanie Rynders, Jean-Baptiste Salée, Bablu Sinha, Steven Sherwood, Didier Swingedouw, and Thejna Tharammal
Publicado en: Erath system Dynamics, Edición [preprint], 2023
Editor: Copenicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-2589

A strategy to compute convective timescales of the Indian monsoon with the WRF model

Autores: Lucy G. Recchia, Valerio Lucarini
Publicado en: arXiv, Edición [preprint], 2023
Editor: ArXiV
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2310.15871

Saddle avoidance of noise-induced transitions in multiscale systems

Autores: Reyk Börner, Ryan Deeley, Raphael Römer, Tobias Grafke, Valerio Lucarini, Ulrike Feudel
Publicado en: arXiv, Edición [preprint], 2023
Editor: Cornell University
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2311.10231

Crossing planetary boundaries could lead to Hothouse Earth

Autores: Erik Chavez, Michael Ghil, Jan Rombouts
Publicado en: https://www.researchsquare.com/, Edición [preprint], 2024
Editor: https://www.researchsquare.com/
DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3870378/v1

Detection of approaching critical transitions in natural systems driven by red noise

Autores: Andreas Morr and Niklas Boers
Publicado en: arXiv, 2023
Editor: Cornell University
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2310.05587

Internal noise interference in anticipation of tipping points of generic multi-dimensional dynamical systems

Autores: Andreas Morr, Niklas Boers and Peter Ashwin
Publicado en: arXiv, Edición [preprint], 2023
Editor: Cornell University
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2311.18597

Arctic summer sea ice loss will accelerate in coming decades

Autores: Anna Poltronieri, Nils Bochow, Niklas Boers, Per Kristen Jakobsen, and Martin Rypdal
Publicado en: Research Square [preprint], 2022
Editor: Research Square
DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-2112530/v1

Bayesian analysis of early warning signals using a time-dependent model

Autores: Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, Luc Hallali, and Martin Rypdal
Publicado en: EGUsphere [preprint], 2024
Editor: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2024-436

Dimensional analysis identifies contrasting dynamics of past climate states and critical transitions

Autores: Tommaso Alberti, Fabio Florindo, Eelco J. Rohling, Valerio Lucarini, Davide Faranda
Publicado en: arXiv, Edición [preprint], 2023
Editor: ArXiV
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2309.12693

Agnostic detection of large-scale weather patterns in the northern hemisphere: from blockings to teleconnections

Autores: Sebastian Springer, Vera Melinda Galfi, Alessandro Laio, Valerio Lucarini
Publicado en: arXiv, Edición [preprint], 2023
Editor: arXiv
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2309.06833

Antarctic sensitivity to oceanic melting parameterizations

Autores: Antonio Juarez-Martinez, Javier Blasco, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya, and Jorge Alvarez-Solas
Publicado en: EGUsphere, 2024
Editor: Copenicus
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-2863

Climate sensitivity, commitment and abrupt change: toward an ontology for climate tipping point research

Autores: Botta, Nicola; Brede, Nuria; Crucifix, Michel; Marina Martínez Montero
Publicado en: 2022
Editor: TiPES
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.6820683

Winter Euro-Atlantic blocking activity less sensitive to climate change than previously evaluated

Autores: Simon L. L. Michel, Anna S. von der Heydt, Henk A. Dijkstra
Publicado en: ESS Open Archive, Edición [preprint], 2023
Editor: Authorea.com
DOI: 10.22541/essoar.168839598.85584521/v1

Decoupling of δ18O from surface temperature in Antarctica in an ensemble of Historical simulations

Autores: Sentia Oger, Louise Sime, and Max Holloway
Publicado en: EGUsphere, Edición [preprint], 2023
Editor: Copenicus
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-2735

Deep learning reconstruction of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation strength validates ongoig twenty-first century decline

Autores: Simon Michel, Henk Dijkstra, Francesco Guardamagna, Valérian Jacques-Dumas, René van Westen, Anna von der Heydt
Publicado en: Research Square, Edición [preprint], 2023
Editor: https://www.researchsquare.com/
DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3377545/v1

A DSL for Monadic Decision Problems, Responsibility under Uncertainty and Tipping Point Notions

Autores: Botta, Nicola; Brede, Nuria; Crucifix, Michel; Martínez Montero, Marina
Publicado en: 2022
Editor: TiPES
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.6820605

On the periodicity of free oscillations for a finite ice column

Autores: Daniel Moreno, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya, and Jorge Alvarez-Solas
Publicado en: The Cryosphere Discuss. [preprint], Edición in review, 2022, ISSN 1994-0440
Editor: Copenicus
DOI: 10.5194/tc-2022-97

Antarctic Tipping points triggered by the mid-Pliocene warm climate

Autores: Javier Blasco, Ilaria Tabone, Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Frank Pattyn, and Marisa Montoya
Publicado en: Climateof the Past Discussions, Edición [preprint], 2023, ISSN 1814-9324
Editor: European Geosciences Union (EGU).
DOI: 10.5194/cp-2023-76

Looking to the (far) future of climate projection.

Autores: Chris A. Boulton
Publicado en: Global Change Biology, Edición 7, 2022, ISSN 1354-1013
Editor: Blackwell Publishing Inc.
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15936

A Climate Science Toolkit for High Impact-Low Likelihood Climate Risks

Autores: Richard A. Wood, Michel Crucifix, Timothy M. Lenton, Katharine J. Mach, Crystal Moore, Mark New, Simon Sharpe, Thomas F. Stocker, Rowan T. Sutton
Publicado en: Erath's Future, Edición 11, 4, 2023, Página(s) e2022EF003369, ISSN 2328-4277
Editor: John Wiley & Sons
DOI: 10.1029/2022ef003369

Limits to predictability of the asymptotic state of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a conceptual climate model

Autores: Mehling, Oliver, Reyk Börner, and Valerio Lucarini
Publicado en: Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, Edición 134043, 2023, ISSN 0167-2789
Editor: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.physd.2023.134043

Can the Miocene climate inform the future?

Autores: Anna von der Heydt
Publicado en: Science, Edición 377, 6601, 2022, Página(s) 26-27, ISSN 0036-8075
Editor: American Association for the Advancement of Science
DOI: 10.1126/science.abq6542

Climate, zoonosis, and interdisciplinarity

Autores: Michael Ghil
Publicado en: PNAS, Edición 120 (39), 2023, Página(s) e2311575120, ISSN 0027-8424
Editor: National Academy of Sciences
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2311575120

Bifurcation Analysis of Systems With Delays: Methods and Their Use in Applications

Autores: Bernd Krauskopf and Jan Sieber
Publicado en: Controlling Delayed Dynamics. CISM International Centre for Mechanical Sciences, Edición vol 604., 2022, ISBN 978-3-031-01129-0
Editor: Springer, Cham.
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-01129-0_7

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Nonautonomous Dynamical Systems, and the Climate Sciences

Autores: Michael Ghil, Eric Simonnet
Publicado en: Mathematical Approach to Climate Change and its Impacts - MAC2I, Edición 38, 2020, Página(s) 3-81, ISBN 978-3-030-38668-9
Editor: Springer International Publishing
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-38669-6_1

Coupled Climate-Economy-Ecology-Biosphere Modeling: A Dynamic and Stochastic Approach

Autores: Ogutu, K.B.Z., D’Andrea, F., Groth, A., Ghil, M
Publicado en: Handbook of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation, 2022, Página(s) 225-287, ISBN 978-3-030-72579-2
Editor: Springer, Cham
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-72579-2_103

An ice-core perspective

Autores: Sune Olander Rasmussen
Publicado en: Abrupt Climate Change, Edición 1, 2020, ISBN 978-87-93604-86-5
Editor: Strandberg publishing

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