Tipping Points in the Earth System

Project Information

TiPES

Grant agreement ID: 820970

DOI 10.3030/820970

Project closed

EC signature date 3 May 2019

Start date 1 September 2019

End date 29 February 2024

Funded under

• SOCIETAL CHALLENGES - Climate action, Environment, Resource Efficiency and Raw Materials

Total cost € 8 561 238,75

EU contribution € 8 561 238,75

Coordinated by

KOBENHAVNS UNIVERSITET
Denmark

Deliverables

Websites, patent fillings, videos etc. (3)

Setup internal communication

Website launch with public part for outreach and internal part for communication among partners and transparent consortium administration, setup appropriate software solution for webinars, make plan for delegating seminar planning and appointment of organizers and moderators. Webside will be continuous developed throughout the project lifetime (Task 8.4).

TiPES website

A website will be created by the project management. It will contain material for all addressees identified in the communication plan. A special focus will be on scientific material, briefs, and fact sheets addressed at policymakers. The website will also host publications and data for public use (Task 7.3)

D1.1: Open-access proxy data repository of tipping elements in past climates

We will provide a publically available online data repository containing available proxy records that evidence the temporal behavior of tipping elements in past climates. This repository will be accessible from the TiPES website, and linked with existing repositories such as Pangaea. The most accurate age models will be published alongside the respective records, and wherever possible, marker-based synchronizations between the different records will be provided (Task 1.1).

Open Research Data Pilot (2)

Data management plan
Data management plan evaluation

Linked to Task 83

Documents, reports (8)

State-dependence and spatial patterns of feedbacks

A review report will be compiled during the first year focusing on feedbacks in the climate system that will be addressed by TiPES Feedbacks will include those with an impact on the global mean temperature and those that may exhibit specific spatial patterns Task 41

Spatial patterns of the interrelations between different Tipping Elements

A report will be submitted on the spatial interaction patterns between the different tipping elements of the earth system that are evidenced in paleoclimatic records On this basis an assessment of cascading versus stabilizing effects of tippingelement interactions will be delivered Task 13

Mid-term report from scientific Advisory Board

Linked to Task 82

Tipping point report

A review report will be compiled during the first year derived from an expert public meeting focusing on tipping points that are addressed in TiPES It will form the basis for the first policy briefs and fact sheets produced by TiPES The document will be updated during TiPES M30 Task 72

Indian summer monsoon projections under regional and global forcings

Assessment report of the future Indian summer monsoon response to regional and global forcing scenarios based on a hierarchy of climate models This will include the definition of safe operating spaces excluding future dangerous conditions in the hydroclimatology of the region Task 33

Observable EWSs for AMOC collapse, suitable for use in a changing background climate

Report summarising studies with lowdimensional climate models and AOGCMs in which AMOC thresholds are naturally passed or artificially induced while the underlying climate is changing according to plausible IPCC scenarios The work will identify conditions under which the likelihood of tipping is increased early warning indicators and how these conditions depend on the magnitude and rate of underlying climate change Task 31

Communication plan

A communication plan will be developed that identifies the adressees in academia society and decision makers in the partner countries and the lists the communication instruments that the project will utilize at the level of partners workpagages and the project as a whole The plan will be circulated among the project partners and then published on the www and reviewed M30 Task 71

Domain-specific-language with basic notions about Tipping Points

With annotations examples of usage and relations and implementation in Idris It will be provided as a report containing the dictionary of notions formalised such as being compatible with computer language Idris or similar supported by a code library The report intends to function as a draft for a publication which can be circulated among partners for further feedback Task 61

Other (4)

Statistical toolbox to analyse tipping elements in proxy records

A statistical toolbox, written in the programming language Python, will be published on the open-access code platform GitHub, and linked to the TiPES website. This toolbox will allow to analyse records of tipping elements in past climates in terms of time series on common, absolute time scales, whilst keeping track of the associated uncertainties (Task 1.2).

Course on functional languages and to dependently typed languages

The course will be delivered by N. Botta at UCL after the recruitment is finalised. It takes the form of seminars with either slide or syllabus support (Task 6.1).

Modelling protocol for DO events for CMIP-PMIP

We will write suggested DO-modelling protocol, and liaise with CMIP-PMIP steering committee, to put appropriate protocol on the CMIP-PMIP website. This protocol will be published in a peer reviewed paper (T2.1).

Software package for linear response operators in climate models

A software package will be developed to construct linear response operators in different climate models. Based on our analysis of various models of intermediate to more sophisticated complexity (PlaSIM, Bern3D, HadCM3, EC-Earth, CESM) we will make available the analysis tools for extracting the linear response operator from climate models (Task 4.1).

Publications

Peer reviewed articles (215)

Understanding AMOC stability: the North Atlantic Hosing Model Intercomparison Project

Author(s): Laura C. Jackson, Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo, Katinka Bellomo, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Helmuth Haak, Aixue Hu, Johann Jungclaus, Warren Lee, Virna L. Meccia, Oleg Saenko, Andrew Shao, and Didier Swingedouw
Published in: Geosci. Model Dev., Issue 6, 2023, Page(s) 1975–1995, ISSN 1991-959X
Publisher: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-1975-2023

Internal multi-centennial variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation simulated by EC-Earth3

Author(s): Virna L. Meccia, Ramón Fuentes-Franco, Paolo Davini, Katinka Bellomo, Federico Fabiano, Shuting Yang and Jost von Hardenberg
Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 14320894, 2022, ISSN 1432-0894
Publisher: Springer
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06534-4

Adaptive voter model on simplicial complexes.

Author(s): Christian Kuehn; Leonhard Horstmeyer
Published in: Phys. Rev. E, Issue 22, 2019, ISSN 1536-6065
Publisher: American Physical Society
DOI: 10.1103/physreve.101.022305

Climate impacts of a substantial weakening of the AMOC over the Euro-Atlantic region in the EC-Earth3 climate model

Author(s): Katinka Bellomo, Virna L. Meccia, Roberta D’Agostino, Federico Fabiano, Sarah M. Larson, Jost von Hardenberg & Susanna Corti
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 2023, ISSN 1432-0894
Publisher: Copenicus
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-06754-2

Multi-centennial evolution of the climate response and deep ocean heat uptake in a set of abrupt stabilization scenarios with EC-Earth3

Author(s): Federico Fabiano, Paolo Davini, Virna Meccia, Giuseppe Zappa, Alessio Bellucci, Valerio Lembo, Katinka Bellomo, and Susanna Corti
Published in: Earth System Dynamics, Issue [accepted], 2023, ISSN 2190-4987
Publisher: Copenicus
DOI: 10.5194/esd-2023-15

An astronomically dated record of Earth’s climate and its predictability over the last 66 million years

Author(s): Thomas Westerhold, Norbert Marwan, Anna Joy Drury, Diederik Liebrand, Claudia Agnini, Eleni Anagnostou, James S. K. Barnet, Steven M. Bohaty, David De Vleeschouwer, Fabio Florindo, Thomas Frederichs, David A. Hodell, Ann E. Holbourn, Dick Kroon, Vittoria Lauretano, Kate Littler, Lucas J. Lourens, Mitchell Lyle, Heiko Pälike, Ursula Röhl, Jun Tian, Roy H. Wilkens, Paul A. Wilson, James C. Zachos
Published in: Science, Issue 369/6509, 2020, Page(s) 1383-1387, ISSN 0036-8075
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science
DOI: 10.1126/science.aba6853

Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Author(s): Peter D. Ditlevsen and Susanne Ditlevsen
Published in: Nature Communications, Issue 14, 2023, Page(s) 4254, ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-39810-w

Theoretical and paleoclimatic evidence for abrupt transitions in the Earth system

Author(s): Niklas Boers, Michael Ghil and Thomas F Stocker
Published in: Environ. Res. Lett., Issue 17, 9, 2022, Page(s) 093006, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac8944

The coupled ice sheet-Earth system model Bern3D v3. 0

Author(s): Frerk Pöppelmeier, Fortunat Joos, and Thomas F. Stocker
Published in: Journal of Climate, 2023, Page(s) 1-39, ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0104.1

Robustness of competing climatic states

Author(s): Ragon, Charline; Lembo, Valerio; Lucarini, Valerio; Vérard, Christian; Kasparian, Jérôme; Brunetti, Maura
Published in: Journal of Climate, Issue 35(7), 2022, Page(s) 1-59, ISSN 1520-0442
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0148.1

Antarctic Ice Sheet elevation impacts on water isotope records during the Last Interglacial

Author(s): Sentia Goursaud, Max Holloway, Louise Sime, Eric Wolff, Paul Valdes, Eric J. Steig, Andrew Pauling
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, 2020, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091412

Statistical estimation of global surface temperature response to forcing under the assumption of temporal scaling

Author(s): Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, Sigrunn Holbek Sørbye, Hege-Beate Fredriksen, Håvard Rue, Martin Rypdal
Published in: Earth System Dynamics, Issue 11/2, 2020, Page(s) 329-345, ISSN 2190-4987
Publisher: EGU
DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-329-2020

Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Author(s): Niklas Boers; Niklas Boers; Niklas Boers
Published in: Nature Climate Change, Issue 11/12, 2021, ISSN 1758-6798
Publisher: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01097-4

Meridional-energy-transport extremes and the general circulation of Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes: dominant weather regimes and preferred zonal wavenumbers

Author(s): Valerio Lembo, Federico Fabiano, Vera Melinda Galfi, Rune Grand Graversen, Valerio Lucarini​​​​​​​, and Gabriele Messori
Published in: Weather and Climate Dynamics, Issue 3, 2022, Page(s) 1037–1062, ISSN 2698-4016
Publisher: Göttingen Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-3-1037-2022

Sea-ice-free Arctic during the Last Interglacial supports fast future loss

Author(s): Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Louise C. Sime, David Schröeder, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Erica Rosenblum, Mark Ringer, Jeff Ridley, Danny Feltham, Cecilia Bitz, Eric J. Steig, Eric Wolff, Julienne Stroeve, Alistair Sellar
Published in: Nature Climate Change, Issue 10/10, 2020, Page(s) 928-932, ISSN 1758-678X
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0865-2

Time-scale synchronisation of oscillatory responses can lead to non-monotonous R-tipping

Author(s): Swierczek-Jereczek, J., Montoya, M., Robinson, A., Alvarez-Solas, J., & Blasco, J
Published in: Scientific Reports, Issue 13, 2023, Page(s) 2104, ISSN 2045-2322
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-28771-1

Response and Sensitivity Using Markov Chains

Author(s): Manuel Santos Gutiérrez, Valerio Lucarini
Published in: Journal of Statistical Physics, Issue 179/5-6, 2020, Page(s) 1572-1593, ISSN 0022-4715
Publisher: Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers
DOI: 10.1007/s10955-020-02504-4

East Greenland ice core dust record reveals timing of Greenland ice sheet advance and retreat

Author(s): Paul Vallelonga; Aslak Grinsted; Alejandra Borunda; Alejandra Borunda; Steven L. Goldstein; Steven L. Goldstein; Thomas Blunier; Marius Simonsen; Mai Winstrup; Diana Vladimirova; Helle Astrid Kjær; Bo M Vinther; Gisela Winckler; Gisela Winckler; Barbara Delmonte; Robert Frei; Anders Svensson; Giovanni Baccolo; Todd Sowers
Published in: Nature communications, Issue 30, 2019, ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-12546-2

Normalized US hurricane damage estimates using area of total destruction, 1900−2018

Author(s): Aslak Grinsted, Peter Ditlevsen, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen
Published in: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Issue 116/48, 2019, Page(s) 23942-23946, ISSN 0027-8424
Publisher: National Academy of Sciences
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1912277116

Reconstructing complex system dynamics from time series: a method comparison

Author(s): Forough Hassanibesheli, Niklas Boers, Jürgen Kurths
Published in: New Journal of Physics, Issue 22/7, 2020, Page(s) 073053, ISSN 1367-2630
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1367-2630/ab9ce5

Stable stadial and interstadial states of the last glacial's climate identified in a combined stable water isotope and dust record from Greenland

Author(s): Keno Riechers, Leonardo Rydin Gorjão, Forough Hassanibesheli, Pedro G. Lind, Dirk Witthaut, and Niklas Boers
Published in: Earth System Dynamics, Issue 14.3, 2023, Page(s) 593-607, ISSN 2190-4979
Publisher: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH
DOI: 10.5194/esd-14-593-2023

Elliptic and Parabolic Boundary Value Problems in Weighted Function Spaces

Author(s): Hummel, Felix; Lindemulder, Nick
Published in: Potential Analysis, Issue 52, 2021, ISSN 1572-929X
Publisher: Springer Nature B.V.
DOI: 10.1007/s11118-021-09929-w

Resilience of dynamical systems

Author(s): Hana Krakovská, Christian Kuehn and Iacopo P. Longo
Published in: European Journal of Applied Mathematics, 2023, Page(s) 1-46, ISSN 1469-4425
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
DOI: 10.1017/s0956792523000141

Canadian forest fires, Icelandic volcanoes and increased local dust observed in six shallow Greenland firn cores

Author(s): Helle Astrid Kjær, Patrick Zens, Samuel Black, Kasper Holst Lund, Anders Svensson, and Paul Vallelonga
Published in: Climate of the Past, Issue 18149324, 2022, Page(s) 2211-2230, ISSN 1814-9324
Publisher: European Geosciences Union (EGU).
DOI: 10.5194/cp-18-2211-2022

Stabilization of cyclic processes by slowly varying forcing

Author(s): J. Newman; M. Lucas; A. Stefanovska
Published in: Chaos, Issue 31(12), 2021, ISSN 1089-7682
Publisher: American Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1063/5.0066641

Quasipotentials for coupled escape problems and the gate-height bifurcation

Author(s): Peter Ashwin; Jennifer Creaser; Krasimira Tsaneva-Atanasova
Published in: Crossref, Issue 24, 2023, ISSN 0031-9007
Publisher: American Physical Society
DOI: 10.1103/physreve.107.014213

Main controls on the stable carbon isotope composition of speleothems

Author(s): Jens Fohlmeister, Ny Riavo G. Voarintsoa, Franziska A. Lechleitner, Meighan Boyd, Susanne Brandtstätter, Matthew J. Jacobson, Jessica L. Oster
Published in: Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, Issue 279, 2020, Page(s) 67-87, ISSN 0016-7037
Publisher: Pergamon Press Ltd.
DOI: 10.1016/j.gca.2020.03.042

Fragmented tipping in a spatially heterogeneous world

Author(s): Robbin Bastiaansen, Henk A Dijkstra, Anna S von der Heydt
Published in: Environmental Research letters, Issue 17 (4), 2022, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac59a8

Simulating the Laurentide Ice Sheet of the Last Glacial Maximum

Author(s): Daniel Moreno-Parada, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Javier Blasco, Marisa Montoya, & Alexander Robinson
Published in: The Cryosphere, Issue 17, 2023, Page(s) 2139–2156, ISSN 1994-0424
Publisher: Göttingen Copernicus Publ.
DOI: 10.5194/tc-17-2139-2023

A new mathematical framework for atmospheric blocking events

Author(s): Valerio Lucarini, Andrey Gritsun
Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 54/1-2, 2020, Page(s) 575-598, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-05018-2

Comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core records

Author(s): Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, Keno Riechers,Martin Wibe Rypdal, Niklas Boers
Published in: Climate of the past, Issue 18, 6, 2022, Page(s) 1275-1294, ISSN 1814-9332
Publisher: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022

An early-warning indicator for Amazon droughts exclusively based on tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures

Author(s): Catrin Ciemer, Lars Rehm, Jürgen Kurths, Reik V Donner, Ricarda Winkelmann, Niklas Boers
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 15/9, 2020, Page(s) 094087, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab9cff

Towards neural Earth system modelling by integrating artificial intelligence in Earth system science

Author(s): Christopher Irrgang; Niklas Boers; Niklas Boers; Niklas Boers; Maike Sonnewald; Maike Sonnewald; Maike Sonnewald; Elizabeth A. Barnes; Christopher Kadow; Joanna Staneva; Jan Saynisch-Wagner
Published in: Nature Machine Intelligence, Issue 3, 2021, ISSN 2522-5839
Publisher: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s42256-021-00374-3

Uncertainties in critical slowing down indicators of observation-based fingerprints of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation

Author(s): Ben-Yami, Maya ; Skiba, Vanessa ; Bathiany, Sebastian ; Boers, Niklas
Published in: Nature communications, Issue 14, 2023, Page(s) 8344, ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44046-9

On the correctness of monadic backward induction

Author(s): Brede, Nuria; Botta, Nicola
Published in: Journal of Functional Programming, Issue 31, 2021, ISSN 1469-7653
Publisher: online
DOI: 10.1017/s0956796821000228

Significance of uncertain phasing between the onsets of stadial–interstadial transitions in different Greenland ice core proxies

Author(s): Keno Riechers Niklas Boers
Published in: Climate of the past, 2021, ISSN 1814-9332
Publisher: Göttingen Copernicus Publ.
DOI: 10.5194/cp-17-1751-2021

Climate-induced speleothem radiocarbon variability on Socotra Island from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Younger Dryas

Author(s): Steffen Therre, Jens Fohlmeister, Dominik Fleitmann, Albert Matter, Stephen J. Burns, Jennifer Arps, Andrea Schröder-Ritzrau, Ronny Friedrich, Norbert Frank
Published in: Climate of the Past, Issue 16/1, 2020, Page(s) 409-421, ISSN 1814-9332
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/cp-16-409-2020

Fingerprints for Early Detection of Changes in the AMOC

Author(s): L. C. Jackson, R. A. Wood
Published in: Journal of Climate, Issue 33/16, 2020, Page(s) 7027-7044, ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0034.1

Differentiable programming for Earth system modeling

Author(s): Maximilian Gelbrecht, Alistair White, Sebastian Bathiany, and Niklas Boers
Published in: Geoscientific Model Development, Issue 16,11, 2023, Page(s) 3123–3135, ISSN 1991-9603
Publisher: Göttingen Copernicus Publ.
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-3123-2023

Overturning Pathways Control AMOC Weakening in CMIP6 Models

Author(s): Jonathan A. Baker, Michael J. Bell, Laura C. Jackson, Richard Renshaw, Geoffrey K. Vallis, Andrew J. Watson, Richard A. Wood
Published in: geophysical Research Letters, Issue 50, 14, 2023, Page(s) e2023GL103381, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2023gl103381

Neural partial differential equations for chaotic systems

Author(s): Maximilian Gelbrecht; Maximilian Gelbrecht; Maximilian Gelbrecht; Niklas Boers; Niklas Boers; Niklas Boers; Juergen Kurths; Juergen Kurths
Published in: New Journal of Physics, Issue 12, 2021, ISSN 1367-2630
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.17169/refubium-30839

Resilient Antarctic monsoonal climate prevented ice growth during the Eocene

Author(s): Michiel Baatsen, Peter Bijl, Anna von der Heydt, Appy Sluijs, and Henk Dijkstra
Published in: Climate of the Past, Issue 20,1, 2024, Page(s) 77-90, ISSN 1814-9332
Publisher: Göttingen Copernicus Publ.
DOI: 10.5194/cp-20-77-2024

Lévy noise versus Gaussian-noise-induced transitions in the Ghil–Sellers energy balance model

Author(s): Valerio Lucarini, Larissa Serdukova, and Georgios Margazoglou
Published in: Nonlin. Processes Geophys., Issue 16077946, 2022, Page(s) 183-205, ISSN 1607-7946
Publisher: Copenicus Gesellschaft
DOI: 10.5194/npg-29-183-2022

Simulating AMOC tipping driven by internal climate variability with a rare event algorithm

Author(s): Matteo Cini, Giuseppe Zappa, Francesco Ragone & Susanna Corti
Published in: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Issue 7 (31), 2024, ISSN 2397-3722
Publisher: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00568-7

A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127 ka: sea ice data compilation and model differences

Author(s): Masa Kageyama, Louise C. Sime, Marie Sicard, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Anne de Vernal, Ruediger Stein, David Schroeder, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cecilia Bitz, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Jian Cao, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Danny Feltham, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-B
Published in: Climate of the Past, Issue 17/1, 2021, Page(s) 37-62, ISSN 1814-9332
Publisher: European geosciences union
DOI: 10.5194/cp-17-37-2021

Early-warning signals for Cenozoic climate transitions

Author(s): Christopher Boettner, Georg Klinghammer, Niklas Boers, Thomas Westerhold, Norbert Marwan,
Published in: Quaternary Science Reviews, Issue 270, 2021, ISSN 0277-3791
Publisher: Pergamon Press Ltd.
DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.107177

The coupled system response to 250 years of freshwater forcing: Last Interglacial CMIP6–PMIP4 HadGEM3 simulations

Author(s): Maria Vittoria Guarino, Louise C. Sime, Rachel Diamond, Jeff Ridley, and David Schroeder
Published in: Climate of the Past, Issue 19, 2023, Page(s) 865–881, ISSN 1814-9324
Publisher: European Geosciences Union (EGU).
DOI: 10.5194/cp-19-865-2023

Orbital insolation variations, intrinsic climate variability, and Quaternary glaciations

Author(s): Keno Riechers, Takahito Mitsui, Niklas Boers, and Michael Ghil
Published in: Climate of the Past, Issue 18, 2022, Page(s) 863-893, ISSN 1814-9324
Publisher: European Geosciences Union (EGU).
DOI: 10.5194/cp-18-863-2022

On some aspects of the response to stochastic and deterministic forcings

Author(s): Gutiérrez, Manuel Santos, and Valerio Lucarini.
Published in: Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical, Issue 55.42, 2022, Page(s) 425002, ISSN 1751-8121
Publisher: IOPScience
DOI: 10.1088/1751-8121/ac90fd

"""Rate-induced tipping: thresholds, edge states and connecting orbits"

Author(s): Wieczorek, Sebastian, Chun Xie, and Peter Ashwin.
Published in: Nonlinearity, Issue 36.6, 2023, Page(s) 3238, ISSN 1361-6544
Publisher: IOP Science
DOI: 10.1088/1361-6544/accb37

Warning signs for non-Markovian bifurcations: colour blindness and scaling laws

Author(s): Kuehn, Christian; Lux, Kerstin; Neamtu, Alexandra
Published in: Proceedings of the Royal Academy A, Issue 8/12, 2022, ISSN 1471-2946
Publisher: The Royal Society
DOI: 10.1098/rspa.2021.0740

The Pleistocene Glacial Cycles and Millennial-Scale Climate Variability

Author(s): Peter Ditelvsen
Published in: Atmosphere-Ocean, Issue 60:3-4, 2022, Page(s) 233-244, ISSN 1480-9214
Publisher: Taylor and Francis Ltd.
DOI: 10.1080/07055900.2022.2077172

Seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon onset with echo state networks.

Author(s): Mitsui, T., Boers, N.
Published in: Environmental research letters, Issue 16, 2021, Page(s) 074024, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac0acb

Ice core evidence for major volcanic eruptions at the onset of Dansgaard–Oeschger warming events

Author(s): Johannes Lohmann and Anders Svensson
Published in: Climate of the Past, Issue 18, 2022, Page(s) 2021-2043, ISSN 1814-9332
Publisher: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/cp-18-2021-2022

Exploring the impact of atmospheric forcing and basal drag on the Antarctic Ice Sheet under Last Glacial Maximum conditions

Author(s): Javier Blasco, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya
Published in: The Cryosphere, Issue 15/1, 2021, Page(s) 215-231, ISSN 1994-0424
Publisher: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-215-2021

Effect of orographic gravity wave drag on Northern Hemisphere climate in transient simulations of the last deglaciation

Author(s): Brooke Snoll, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Paul J. Valdes, Amanda C. Maycock, Lauren J. Gregoire
Published in: Climate dynamics, 2022, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06196-2

Lost options commitment: how short-term policies affect long-term scope of action

Author(s): Marina Martínez Montero, Nuria Brede, Victor Couplet, Michel Crucifix, Nicola Botta, Claudia Wienerse
Published in: Oxford open climate change, 2024, Page(s) kgae004, ISSN 2634-4068
Publisher: Oxford University Press
DOI: 10.1093/oxfclm/kgae004

Reversibility of Greenland ice sheet mass loss under artificial carbon dioxide removal scenarios

Author(s): Höning, Dennis, Matteo Willeit, and Andrey Ganopolski
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, 2024, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad2129

Role of mineral dust in the nitrate preservation during the glacial period: Insights from the RICE ice core

Author(s): Abhijith U.Venugopala Nancy A.N.Bertler Rebecca L.Pyne Helle A.Kjær V. Holly L.Winton Paul A.Mayewski Giuseppe Cortesea
Published in: Global and Planetary change, 2022, ISSN 0921-8181
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103745

Atmospheric CO2 control of spontaneous millennial-scale ice age climate oscillations

Author(s): Guido Vettoretti Peter D. Ditlevsen Markus Jochum S. Olander Rasmussen
Published in: Nature Geoscience volume, Issue 17520908, 2022, Page(s) 300-306, ISSN 1752-0908
Publisher: Springer
DOI: 10.1038/s41561-022-00920-7

The contribution of melt ponds to enhanced Arctic sea-ice melt during the Last Interglacial

Author(s): Diamond, R Sime, LC Schroeder, D Guarino, M-V
Published in: The Cryosphere, 2021, ISSN 1994-0416
Publisher: Copernicus Group
DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-5099-2021

Random templex encodes topological tipping points in noise-driven chaotic dynamics

Author(s): Gisela D. Charó; Michael Ghil; Denisse Sciamarella
Published in: Chaos, Issue 33, 2023, Page(s) 103141, ISSN 1054-1500
Publisher: American Institute of Physics
DOI: 10.1063/5.0140660

The role of Northern Hemisphere summer insolation for millennial-scale climate variability during the penultimate glacial

Author(s): Jens Fohlmeister, Marc Luetscher, Christoph Spötl, Andrea Schröder-Ritzrau, Birgit Schröder, Norbert Frank, René Eichstädter, Martin Trüssel, Vanessa Skiba & Niklas Boers
Published in: Communications Earth & Environment, Issue 4, 245, 2023, ISSN 2662-4435
Publisher: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-023-00908-0

Critical slowing down in dynamical systems driven by nonstationary correlated noise

Author(s): Christopher Boettner, Niklas Boers
Published in: Physical Review Research, Issue 4 (013230), 2022, ISSN 0003-0503
Publisher: American Physical Society
DOI: 10.1103/physrevresearch.4.013230

Global footprints of dansgaard-oeschger oscillations in a GCM

Author(s): Kenji Izumi, Edward Armstrong, Paul Valdes,
Published in: Quaternary Science Reviews, Issue 305, 2023, Page(s) 108016, ISSN 0277-3791
Publisher: Pergamon Press Ltd.
DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2023.108016

Global reorganization of atmospheric circulation during Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles

Author(s): Jens Fohlmeister, Natasha Sekhon, Andrea Columbu, Guido Vettoretti, Nils Weitzel, Kira Rehfeld, Cristina Veiga-Pires, Maya Ben-Yami, Norbert Marwan, and Niklas Boers
Published in: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Issue 120 (36) e2302283120, 2023, ISSN 0027-8424
Publisher: National Academy of Sciences
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2302283120

Abrupt climate change as a rate-dependent cascading tipping point

Author(s): Johannes Lohmann, Daniele Castellana, Peter D. Ditlevsen, Henk A. Dijkstra
Published in: Earth System Dynamics, 2021, ISSN 2190-4987
Publisher: Göttingen: Copernicus Publ
DOI: 10.5194/esd-12-819-2021

Hysteresis of the Earth system under positive and negative CO 2 emissions

Author(s): Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Thomas F Stocker, Fortunat Joos
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 15/12, 2020, Page(s) 124026, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abc4af

Rate-induced tracking for concave or d-concave transitions in a time-dependent environment with application in ecology

Author(s): J. Dueñas, I. P. Longo, R. Obaya
Published in: CHAOS, Issue 33 (12), 2023, ISSN 1054-1500
Publisher: American Institute of Physics
DOI: 10.1063/5.0159237

Multi-proxy constraints on Atlantic circulation dynamics since the last ice age

Author(s): Frerk Pöppelmeier, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Jörg Lippold, Fortunat Joos & Thomas F. Stocker
Published in: Nat. Geosci., Issue 16, 2023, Page(s) 349–356, ISSN 1752-0894
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41561-023-01140-3

The Significance of the Melt-Pond Scheme in a CMIP6 Global Climate Model

Author(s): Rachel Diamond, David Schroeder, Louise C. Sime, Jeff Ridley, and Danny Feltham
Published in: Jounal of Climate, 2023, Page(s) 249–268, ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0902.1

Climate response and sensitivity: time scales and late tipping points

Author(s): Robbin Bastiaansen; Peter Ashwin; Anna S. von der Heydt
Published in: Proc. R. Soc. A, Issue 479, 2023, Page(s) 20220483, ISSN 1471-2946
Publisher: Royal Society
DOI: 10.1098/rspa.2022.0483

Global oscillatory modes in high-end climate modeling and reanalyses

Author(s): Yizhak Feliks Justin Small Michael Ghil
Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 57, 2021, Page(s) 3385-3411, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05872-z

Detection of dynamical regime transitions with lacunarity as a multiscale recurrence quantification measure

Author(s): Tobias Braun, Vishnu R. Unni, R. I. Sujith, Juergen Kurths, Norbert Marwan
Published in: Nonlinear Dynamics, 2021, ISSN 0924-090X
Publisher: Kluwer Academic Publishers
DOI: 10.1007/s11071-021-06457-5

Probabilistic measures for biological adaptation and resilience

Author(s): Jorge M. Ramirez, Juan Restrepo, Valerio Lucarini, and David Weston
Published in: Phys. Rev. E, Issue 109, 2024, Page(s) 024413, ISSN 2470-0053
Publisher: APS
DOI: 10.1103/physreve.109.024413

Influence of Elevated Nd Fluxes on the Northern Nd Isotope End Member of the Atlantic During the Early Holocene

Author(s): Frerk Pöppelmeier, Jeemijn Scheen, Patrick Blaser, Jörg Lippold, Marcus Gutjahr, Thomas F. Stocker
Published in: Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, Issue 35/11, 2020, ISSN 2572-4517
Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell
DOI: 10.1029/2020pa003973

Responsibility Under Uncertainty: Which Climate Decisions Matter Most?

Author(s): Nicola Botta, Nuria Brede, Michel Crucifix, Cezar Ionescu, Patrik Jansson, Zheng Li, Marina Martínez & Tim Richter
Published in: Environmental Modeling & Assessment, 2023, ISSN 1420-2026
Publisher: Kluwer Academic Publishers
DOI: 10.1007/s10666-022-09867-w

Overshooting the critical threshold for the Greenland ice sheet

Author(s): Bochow, N., Poltronieri, A., Robinson, A., Montoya, M., Rypdal, M., & Boers, N.
Published in: Nature, Issue 622(7983), 2023, Page(s) 528-536., ISSN 1476-4687
Publisher: Nature publishing group
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06503-9

Fingerprinting Heatwaves and Cold Spells and Assessing Their Response to Climate Change Using Large Deviation Theory

Author(s): Vera Melinda Galfi; Valerio Lucarini
Published in: Physical Review Letters, Issue 127, 2021, ISSN 1079-7114
Publisher: American Physical Society
DOI: 10.1103/physrevlett.127.058701

Distinguishing between deterministic oscillations and noise

Author(s): Rowland Adams, J., Newman, J. & Stefanovska, A.
Published in: Eur. Phys. J. Spec. Top., 2023, Page(s) 1-23, ISSN 1951-6355
Publisher: EDP Sciences
DOI: 10.1140/epjs/s11734-023-00986-3

Response theory and phase transitions for the thermodynamic limit of interacting identical systems

Author(s): Valerio Lucarini, Grigorios A. Pavliotis, Niccolò Zagli
Published in: Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Issue 476/2244, 2020, Page(s) 20200688, ISSN 1364-5021
Publisher: Royal Society of London
DOI: 10.1098/rspa.2020.0688

Melt in the Greenland EastGRIP ice core reveals Holocene warm events

Author(s): Julien Westhoff, Giulia Sinnl, Anders Svensson, Johannes Freitag, Helle Astrid Kjær, Paul Vallelonga, Bo Vinther, Sepp Kipfstuhl, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen and Ilka Weikusat
Published in: Climate of the past, Issue 18, 2022, Page(s) 1011–1034, ISSN 1814-9324
Publisher: European Geosciences Union (EGU).
DOI: 10.5194/cp-18-1011-2022

Glacial Abrupt Climate Change as a Multiscale Phenomenon Resulting from Monostable Excitable Dynamics

Author(s): Keno Riechers, Georg Gottwald, and Niklas Boers
Published in: Journal of Climate, Issue 37, 8, 2024, Page(s) 2741–2763, ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0308.1

Tipping points induced by parameter drift in an excitable ocean model

Author(s): Stefano Pierini, Michael Ghil
Published in: Scientific Reports, Issue 11/1, 2021, ISSN 2045-2322
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-90138-1

The Effect of Past Saturation Changes on Noble Gas Reconstructions of Mean Ocean Temperature

Author(s): Frerk Pöppelmeier, Daniel Baggenstos, Markus Grimmer, Zhijun Liu, Jochen Schmitt, Hubertus Fischer, Thomas F. Stocker
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 50, 2023, Page(s) 6, e2022GL102055, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2022gl102055

Latitudinal storm track shift in a reduced two-level model of the atmosphere

Author(s): Melanie Kobras, Valerio Lucarini, Maarten H.P. Ambaum
Published in: Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, Issue 458, 2024, Page(s) 133926, ISSN 0167-2789
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.physd.2023.133926

Paleoclimate-conditioning reveals a North Africa land–atmosphere tipping point

Author(s): Peter O. Hopcroft Paul J. Valdes
Published in: PNAS, Issue 118 (45), 2021, ISSN 0027-8424
Publisher: National Academy of Sciences
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2108783118

Reduction methods in climate dynamics—A brief review

Author(s): Felix Hummel, Peter Ashwin & Christian Kuehn
Published in: Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, Issue 448, 2023, Page(s) 133678, ISSN 1872-8022
Publisher: ISSN National Centre for The Netherlands
DOI: 10.1016/j.physd.2023.133678

Arnold Maps with Noise: Differentiability and Non-monotonicity of the Rotation Number

Author(s): L. Marangio, J. Sedro, S. Galatolo, A. Di Garbo, M. Ghil
Published in: Journal of Statistical Physics, Issue 179/5-6, 2020, Page(s) 1594-1624, ISSN 0022-4715
Publisher: Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers
DOI: 10.1007/s10955-019-02421-1

Ensemble Oscillation Correction (EnOC): Leveraging Oscillatory Modes to Improve Forecasts of Chaotic Systems

Author(s): Eviatar Bach Safa Mote V. Krishnamurthy Michael Ghil Eugenia Kalnay
Published in: Journal of Climate, 2021, ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0624.1

Rough basin boundaries in high dimension: Can we classify them experimentally?

Author(s): Tamás Bódai, Valerio Lucarini
Published in: Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, Issue 30/10, 2020, Page(s) 103105, ISSN 1054-1500
Publisher: American Institute of Physics
DOI: 10.1063/5.0002577

Climate and structure of the 8.2 ka event reconstructed from three speleothems from Germany

Author(s): Sarah Waltgenbach, Denis Scholz, Christoph Spötl, Dana F.C. Riechelmann, Klaus P. Jochum, Jens Fohlmeister, Andrea Schröder-Ritzrau
Published in: Global and Planetary Change, Issue 193, 2020, Page(s) 103266, ISSN 0921-8181
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2020.103266

Applications of large deviation theory in geophysical fluid dynamics and climate science

Author(s): Vera Melinda Gálfi, Valerio Lucarini, Francesco Ragone, Jeroen Wouters
Published in: La Rivista del Nuovo Cimento, 2021, ISSN 0393-697X
Publisher: Societa Italiana di Fisica
DOI: 10.1007/s40766-021-00020-z

Rough Center Manifolds

Author(s): Alexandra Neamţu; Christian Kuehn
Published in: SIAM Journal on Mathematical Analysis, Issue 53.4, 2021, Page(s) 3912-3957, ISSN 0036-1410
Publisher: Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
DOI: 10.1137/18m1234084

Complex systems approaches for Earth system data analysis

Author(s): Niklas Boers, Jürgen Kurths, Norbert Marwan
Published in: Journal of Physics: Complexity, 2021, ISSN 2632-072X
Publisher: IOP Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/2632-072x/abd8db

Homogenization of Fully-Coupled Chaotic Fast-Slow Systems via Intermediate Stochastic Regularization

Author(s): Engel, Maximilian; Gkogkas, Marios-Antonios; Kuehn, Christian
Published in: Journal of statistical physics, Issue 183, 2021, ISSN 0022-4715
Publisher: Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers
DOI: 10.1007/s10955-021-02765-7

Network dynamics on graphops

Author(s): Christian Kuehn
Published in: New Journal of Physics, Issue 22/5, 2020, Page(s) 053030, ISSN 1367-2630
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1367-2630/ab83d4

Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review

Author(s): Nico Wunderling, Anna S. von der Heydt, Yevgeny Aksenov, Stephen Barker, Robbin Bastiaansen, Victor Brovkin, Maura Brunetti, Victor Couplet, Thomas Kleinen, Caroline H. Lear, Johannes Lohmann, Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta, Sacha Sinet, Didier Swingedouw, Ricarda Winkelmann, Pallavi Anand, Jonathan Barichivich, Sebastian Bathiany, Mara Baudena, John T. Bruun, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Helen K. Coxall, David
Published in: Earth system dynamics, Issue 15, 2024, Page(s) 41–74, ISSN 2190-4987
Publisher: Göttingen: Copernicus Publ.
DOI: 10.5194/esd-15-41-2024

Event synchrony measures for functional climate network analysis: A case study on South American rainfall dynamics

Author(s): Frederik Wolf, Jurek Bauer, Niklas Boers, Reik V. Donner
Published in: Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, Issue 30/3, 2020, Page(s) 033102, ISSN 1054-1500
Publisher: American Institute of Physics
DOI: 10.1063/1.5134012

Analysis of a bistable climate toy model with physics-based machine learning methods

Author(s): Maximilian Gelbrecht, Valerio Lucarini, Niklas Boers, Jürgen Kurths
Published in: The European Physical Journal Special Topics, 2021, ISSN 1951-6355
Publisher: EDP Sciences
DOI: 10.1140/epjs/s11734-021-00175-0

Chameleon attractors in turbulent flows

Author(s): Tommaso Alberti, Francois Daviaud, Reik V. Donner, Berengere Dubrulle, Davide Faranda, Valerio Lucarini
Published in: Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Issue 168, 2023, Page(s) 113195, ISSN 1873-2887
Publisher: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2023.113195

Extreme cold events in Europe under a reduced AMOC

Author(s): Virna L Meccia, Claudia Simolo, Katinka Bellomo and Susanna Corti
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 19, 1, 2023, Page(s) 014054, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad14b0

Sample Paths Estimates for Stochastic Fast-Slow Systems Driven by Fractional Brownian Motion

Author(s): Katharina Eichinger, Christian Kuehn, Alexandra Neamţu
Published in: Journal of Statistical Physics, Issue 179/5-6, 2020, Page(s) 1222-1266, ISSN 0022-4715
Publisher: Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers
DOI: 10.1007/s10955-020-02485-4

Limited Retreat of the Wilkes Basin Ice Sheet During the Last Interglacial

Author(s): J. Sutter, O. Eisen, M. Werner, K. Grosfeld, T. Kleiner, H. Fischer
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 47/13, 2020, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl088131

Can we use linear response theory to assess geoengineering strategies?

Author(s): Tamás Bódai, Valerio Lucarini, Frank Lunkeit
Published in: Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, Issue 30/2, 2020, Page(s) 023124, ISSN 1054-1500
Publisher: American Institute of Physics
DOI: 10.1063/1.5122255

Assessing the impact of parametric uncertainty on tipping points of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Author(s): Kerstin Lux, Peter Ashwin, Richard Wood and Christian Kuehn
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 17489326, 2022, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac7602

Asymptotic behavior of the forecast–assimilation process with unstable dynamics

Author(s): Dan Crisan and Michael Ghil
Published in: Chaos, Issue 33, 2023, Page(s) 023139, ISSN 1054-1500
Publisher: American Institute of Physics
DOI: 10.1063/5.0105590

Existence and influence of mixed states in a model of vegetation patterns

Author(s): Lilian Vanderveken, Marina Martínez Montero, and Michel Crucifix
Published in: NPG, Issue 30, 2023, Page(s) 585-599, ISSN 1023-5809
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.5194/npg-30-585-2023

Estimating Remaining Carbon Budgets Using Temperature Responses Informed by CMIP6

Author(s): Martin Rypdal, Niklas Boers, Hege-Beate Fredriksen, Kai-Uwe Eiselt, Andreas Johansen, Andreas Martinsen, Endre Falck Mentzoni, Rune G. Graversen and Kristoffer Rypdal
Published in: Frontiers in Climate, 2021, ISSN 2624-9553
Publisher: Lausanne Frontiers Media SA
DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2021.686058

The physics of climate variability and climate change

Author(s): Michael Ghil, Valerio Lucarini
Published in: Reviews of Modern Physics, Issue 92/3, 2020, ISSN 0034-6861
Publisher: American Physical Society
DOI: 10.1103/revmodphys.92.035002

Dansgaard–Oeschger-like events of the penultimate climate cycle: the loess point of view

Author(s): Denis-Didier Rousseau, Pierre Antoine, Niklas Boers, France Lagroix, Michael Ghil, Johanna Lomax, Markus Fuchs, Maxime Debret, Christine Hatté, Olivier Moine, Caroline Gauthier, Diana Jordanova, Neli Jordanova
Published in: Climate of the Past, Issue 16/2, 2020, Page(s) 713-727, ISSN 1814-9332
Publisher: Climate of the past
DOI: 10.5194/cp-16-713-2020

Changes in Local and Global Climate Feedbacks in the Absence of Interactive Clouds: Southern Ocean–Climate Interactions in Two Intermediate-Complexity Models

Author(s): Patrik L. Pfister, Thomas F. Stocker
Published in: Journal of Climate, Issue 34/2, 2021, Page(s) 755-772, ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0113.1

Multistability and Transient Response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions

Author(s): Dennis Höning, Matteo Willeit, Reinhard Calov, Volker Klemann, Meike Bagge, Andrey Ganopolski
Published in: Geophysical research letters, Issue 50, 6, 2023, Page(s) e2022GL101827, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2022gl101827

A punctuated equilibrium analysis of the climate evolution of cenozoic exhibits a hierarchy of abrupt transitions

Author(s): Denis-Didier Rousseau, Witold Bagniewski & Valerio Lucarini
Published in: Scientific Reports, Issue 13, 2023, Page(s) 11290, ISSN 2332-2675
Publisher: Springer
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-38454-6

Robustness of precipitation Emergent Constraints in CMIP6 models

Author(s): Olivia Ferguglia, Jost von Hardenberg and Elisa Palazzi
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 2023, ISSN 1432-0894
Publisher: Springer
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06634-1

A potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may stabilise eastern Amazonian rainforests

Author(s): Da Nian, Sebastian Bathiany, Maya Ben-Yami, Lana L. Blaschke, Marina Hirota, Regina R. Rodrigues & Niklas Boers
Published in: Communications Earth & Environment, Issue 4, 470, 2023, ISSN 2662-4435
Publisher: Springer Nature,
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-023-01123-7

Numerical continuation for a fast-reaction system and its cross-diffusion limit

Author(s): Christian Kuehn, Cinzia Soresina
Published in: SN Partial Differential Equations and Applications, Issue 1/2, 2020, ISSN 2662-2963
Publisher: SpringerLink
DOI: 10.1007/s42985-020-0008-7

Destabilisation of the Subpolar North Atlantic prior to the Little Ice Age

Author(s): Beatriz Arellano-Nava, Paul R. Halloran, Chris A. Boulton, James Scourse, Paul G. Butler, David J. Reynolds and Timothy M. Lenton
Published in: Nature Communications, Issue 13, 5008, 2022, ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-32653-x

Identifying the Mechanisms of DO-scale Oscillations in a Gcm: a Salt Oscillator Triggered by the Laurentide Ice Sheet

Author(s): Edward M. Armstrong; Kenji Izumi; Paul Valdes
Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 18, 2022, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06564-y

Antarctic evidence for an abrupt northward shift of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies at 32 ka BP

Author(s): Abhijith U. Venugopal, Nancy A. N. Bertler, Jeffrey P. Severinghaus, Edward J. Brook, Giuseppe Cortese, James E. Lee, Thomas Blunier, Paul A. Mayewski, Helle A. Kjær, Lionel Carter, Michael E. Weber, Richard H. Levy, Rebecca L. Pyne & Marcus J. Vandergoes
Published in: Nature Communications, Issue 14, 2023, Page(s) 5432, ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-40951-1

Noise-driven topological changes in chaotic dynamics

Author(s): Gisela D. Charó; Gisela D. Charó; Mickaël D. Chekroun; Denisse Sciamarella; Denisse Sciamarella; Michael Ghil; Michael Ghil
Published in: Chaos, Issue 31(10), 2021, ISSN 1089-7682
Publisher: American Institute of Physics
DOI: 10.1063/5.0059461

Dynamical landscape and multistability of a climate model

Author(s): Georgios Margazoglou, Tobias Grafke, Alessandro Laio, Valerio Lucarini
Published in: Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Issue 477/2250, 2021, Page(s) 20210019, ISSN 1364-5021
Publisher: Royal Society of London
DOI: 10.1098/rspa.2021.0019

Intermittent phase dynamics of non-autonomous oscillators through time-varying phase

Author(s): Joseph P. Scott, Julian Newman, Joe Rowland Adams, & Aneta Stefanovska
Published in: Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 2024, Page(s) 134108, ISSN 0167-2789
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.physd.2024.134108

How might a collapse in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation affect rainfall over tropical South America

Author(s): Peter Good, Niklas Boers, Chris A. Boulton, Jason A. Lowe, Ingo Richter
Published in: Climate Resilience and Sustainability, Issue 20711050, 2021, ISSN 2071-1050
Publisher: MDPI Open Access Publishing
DOI: 10.1002/cli2.26

Estimating rate-induced tipping via asymptotic series and a Melnikov-like method

Author(s): Christian Kuehn, Iacopo P. Longo
Published in: Nonlinearity, Issue 09517715, 2022, Page(s) 2559, ISSN 0951-7715
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1361-6544/ac62dc

Review article: Hilbert problems for the climate sciences in the 21st century – 20 years later

Author(s): Michael Ghil
Published in: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, Issue 27/3, 2020, Page(s) 429-451, ISSN 1607-7946
Publisher: copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/npg-27-429-2020

Physical measures of asymptotically autonomous dynamical systems

Author(s): Julian Newman and Peter Ashwin
Published in: Stochastics and Dynamics, 2022, ISSN 0219-4937
Publisher: World Scientific Publishing Co
DOI: 10.1142/s021949372350020x

Typicality of the 2021 Western North America summer heatwave

Author(s): Valerio Lucarini, Vera Melinda Galfi, Jacopo Riboldi and Gabriele Messori
Published in: Environmental research letters, Issue 18, 2023, Page(s) 015004, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acab77

Boundary value problems of elliptic and parabolic type with boundary data of negative regularity

Author(s): Felix Hummel
Published in: Journal of Evolution Equations, 2021, ISSN 1424-3199
Publisher: Birkhauser Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00028-020-00664-0

Interrupting vaccination policies can greatly spread SARS-CoV-2 and enhance mortality from COVID-19 disease: The AstraZeneca case for France and Italy

Author(s): Davide Faranda, Tommaso Alberti, Maxence Arutkin, Valerio Lembo, Valerio Lucarini
Published in: Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, Issue 31/4, 2021, Page(s) 041105, ISSN 1054-1500
Publisher: American Institute of Physics
DOI: 10.1063/5.0050887

A universal route to explosive phenomena.

Author(s): Christian Kuehn; Christian Bick
Published in: Science Advances, Issue 7(16), 2021, ISSN 2375-2548
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abe3824

Critical slowing down suggests that the western Greenland Ice Sheet is close to a tipping point

Author(s): Niklas Boers, Martin Rypdal
Published in: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Issue 118/21, 2021, Page(s) e2024192118, ISSN 0027-8424
Publisher: National Academy of Sciences
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2024192118

Automatic detection of abrupt transitions in paleoclimate records

Author(s): W. Bagniewski, M. Ghil, D. D. Rousseau
Published in: AIP-Chaos, Issue 31 (11), 2021, ISSN 1054-1500
Publisher: American Institute of Physics
DOI: 10.1063/5.0062543

Risk of tipping the overturning circulation due to increasing rates of ice melt

Author(s): Johannes Lohmann, Peter D. Ditlevsen
Published in: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Issue 118/9, 2021, Page(s) e2017989118, ISSN 0027-8424
Publisher: National Academy of Sciences
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2017989118

Modeling the marine chromium cycle: new constraints on global-scale processes

Author(s): Frerk Pöppelmeier David J. Janssen Samuel L. Jaccard Thomas F. Stocker
Published in: Biogeosciences, Issue 18, 2021, Page(s) 5447-5463, ISSN 1726-4170
Publisher: European Geosciences Union (EGU).
DOI: 10.5194/bg-18-5447-2021

A New Method to Compute Transition Probabilities in Multi-Stable Stochastic Dynamical Systems: Application to the Wind-Driven Ocean Circulation

Author(s): René M. van Westen, Sourabh Kotnala, Sven Baars, Fred W. Wubs, Henk A. Dijkstra
Published in: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Issue 15, 5, 2023, Page(s) e2022MS003456, ISSN 1942-2466
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2022ms003456

Simulated stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during the Last Glacial Maximum

Author(s): Frerk Pöppelmeier, Jeemijn Scheen, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Thomas F. Stocker
Published in: Climate of the Past, Issue 17/2, 2021, Page(s) 615-632, ISSN 1814-9332
Publisher: Copernicus publications
DOI: 10.5194/cp-17-615-2021

Increased wintertime European atmospheric blocking frequencies in General Circulation Models with an eddy-permitting ocean

Author(s): Simon L. L. Michel, Anna S. von der Heydt, René M. van Westen, Michiel L. J. Baatsen & Henk A. Dijkstra
Published in: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Issue 6(50), 2023, ISSN 2397-3722
Publisher: Springer Nature
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Spectroscopy of phase transitions for multiagent systems

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Published in: CHAOS, Issue 31 (6), 2021, ISSN 1054-1500
Publisher: American Institute of Physics
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Remotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales

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Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
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Review article: Dynamical systems, algebraic topology and the climate sciences

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Publisher: American Geophysical Union
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Volcanism and the Greenland ice cores: A new tephrochronological framework for the last glacial-interglacial transition (LGIT) based on cryptotephra deposits in three ice cores

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Reduced-order models for coupled dynamical systems: Data-driven methods and the Koopman operator

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Publisher: American Institute of Physics
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Connecting a direct and a Galerkin approach to slow manifolds in infinite dimensions

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Emergent structure and dynamics of tropical forest-grassland landscapes

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CH4 and N2O fluctuations during the penultimate deglaciation

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Published in: Climate of the Past, Issue 17(4), 2021, ISSN 1814-9324
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How dusty was the last glacial maximum over Europe?

Author(s): Denis-Didier Rousseau, Pierre Antoine, Youbin Sun
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Summer surface air temperature proxies point to near-sea-ice-free conditions in the Arctic at 127 ka

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A reliable benchmark of the last 640,000 years millennial climate variability

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Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
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Physical invariant measures and tipping probabilities for chaotic attractors of asymptotically autonomous systems

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Surprises for climate stability

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A Data-Based Minimal Model of Episodic Inflation Events at Volcanoes

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Multivariate Estimations of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity From Short Transient Warming Simulations

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Publisher: American Geophysical Union
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Crossover and peaks in the Pleistocene climate spectrum; understanding from simple ice age models

Author(s): Peter Ditlevsen, Takahito Mitsui, Michel Crucifix
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Impact of an AMOC weakening on the stability of the southern Amazon rainforest

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Abrupt climate changes and the astronomical theory: are they related?

Author(s): Denis-Didier Rousseau, Witold Bagniewski, Michael Ghil
Published in: Climate of the Past, Issue 18, 2022, Page(s) 249-271, ISSN 1814-9324
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Machine learning approach reveals strong link between obliquity amplitude increase and the Mid-Brunhes transition

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Evaluating the Performance of Climate Models Based on Wasserstein Distance

Author(s): Gabriele Vissio, Valerio Lembo, Valerio Lucarini, Michael Ghil
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 47/21, 2020, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
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Reliability of vegetation resilience estimates depends on biomass density

Author(s): Taylor Smith and Niklas Boers
Published in: Nature Ecology & Evolution, Issue 7, 2023, Page(s) 1799-1808, ISSN 2397-334X
Publisher: Nature group
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A Multi-Model Ensemble Kalman Filter for Data Assimilation and Forecasting

Author(s): Eviatar Bach, Michael Ghil
Published in: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Issue 15,1, 2023, Page(s) e2022MS003123, ISSN 1942-2466
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
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Pronounced loss of Amazon rainforest resilience since the early 2000s

Author(s): Chris A. Boulton, Timothy M. Lenton, Niklas Boers
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Extensional equality preservation and verified generic programming

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Extratropical Low‐Frequency Variability With ENSO Forcing: A Reduced‐Order Coupled Model Study

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Published in: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Issue 13/6, 2021, ISSN 1942-2466
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
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Stochastic Parameterizations and the Climate Response to External Forcing: An Experiment With EC‐Earth

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Theoretical tools for understanding the climate crisis from Hasselmann's programme and beyond

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Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
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Introduction to the Special Issue on the Statistical Mechanics of Climate

Author(s): Valerio Lucarini; Valerio Lucarini
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Publisher: Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers
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Critical transitions for scalar nonautonomous systems with concave nonlinearities: some rigorous estimates

Author(s): Iacopo P Longo, Carmen Núñez, and Rafael Obaya
Published in: Nonlinearity, Issue 37, 4, 2024, ISSN 0951-7715
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Sea ice feedbacks influence the isotopic signature of Greenland ice sheet elevation changes: last interglacial HadCM3 simulations

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Evaporative controls on Antarctic precipitation: an ECHAM6 model study using innovative water tracer diagnostics

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Analysis of a two-layer energy balance model: Long time behavior and greenhouse effect

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Publisher: American Institute of Physics
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Controls on propagation of the Indian monsoon onset in an idealised model

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Future climate change shaped by inter-model differences in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation response

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An annually resolved chronology for the Mount Brown South ice cores, East Antarctica

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Green Sahara tipping points in transient climate model simulations of the Holocene

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Publisher: IOP concise physics
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Projections of the Transient State-Dependency of Climate Feedbacks

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Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 48(20), 2021, ISSN 1944-8007
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Sample paths of white noise in spaces with dominating mixed smoothness

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Publisher: Banach Mathematical Research Group
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Bipolar volcanic synchronization of abrupt climate change in Greenland and Antarctic ice cores during the last glacial period

Author(s): Anders Svensson, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Jørgen Peder Steffensen, Thomas Blunier, Sune O. Rasmussen, Bo M. Vinther, Paul Vallelonga, Emilie Capron, Vasileios Gkinis, Eliza Cook, Helle Astrid Kjær, Raimund Muscheler, Sepp Kipfstuhl, Frank Wilhelms, Thomas F. Stocker, Hubertus Fischer, Florian Adolphi, Tobias Erhardt, Michael Sigl, Amaelle Landais, Frédéric Parrenin, Christo Buizert, Joseph R. McCon
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Publisher: Climate of the Past
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Coupled Climate-Economy-Ecology (CoCEB) Modeling: A Dynamic Approach

Author(s): Keroboto B.Z. Ogutu, Fabio D'Andrea, Andreas Groth, Michael Ghil
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State-dependent impact of major volcanic eruptions observed in ice-core records of the last glacial period

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Published in: Climate of the past, Issue 20, 2024, Page(s) 313–333, ISSN 1814-9324
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Eddy saturation in a reduced two-level model of the atmosphere

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Mechanics and thermodynamics of a new minimal model of the atmosphere

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Published in: The European Physical Journal Plus, Issue 135/10, 2020, ISSN 2190-5444
Publisher: Springer Science + Business Media
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Numerical continuation for fractional PDEs: sharp teeth and bloated snakes

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Empirical evidence for recent global declines in vegetation resilience

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Compound warm–dry and cold–wet events over the Mediterranean

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Heterogeneity of the attractor of the Lorenz ’96 model: Lyapunov analysis, unstable periodic orbits, and shadowing properties

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A Random Dynamical Systems Perspective on Isochronicity for Stochastic Oscillations

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Neodymium isotopes as a paleo-water mass tracer: A model-data reassessment

Author(s): Frerk Pöppelmeier; Jörg Lippold; Patrick Blaser; Marcus Gutjahr; Martin Frank; Thomas F. Stocker
Published in: Quaternary Science Review, Issue 279, 2022, ISSN 0277-3791
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Holocene climate forcings and lacustrine regime shifts in the Indian summer monsoon realm

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Random attractors via pathwise mild solutions for stochastic parabolic evolution equations

Author(s): Christian Kuehn; Alexandra Neamţu; Stefanie Sonner
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Impacts of the PMIP4 ice sheets on Northern Hemisphere climate during the last glacial period

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Decomposing the dynamics of the Lorenz 1963 model using unstable periodic orbits: Averages, transitions, and quasi-invariant sets

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Sensitivity of the tropical dust cycle to glacial abrupt climate changes

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Quantification and interpretation of the climate variability record

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SURFER v2.0: a flexible and simple model linking anthropogenic CO2 emissions and solar radiation modification to ocean acidification and sea level rise

Author(s): Marina Martínez Montero, Michel Crucifix, Victor Couplet, Nuria Brede, and Nicola Botta
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Synchronization phenomena observed in glacial–interglacial cycles simulated in an Earth system model of intermediate complexity

Author(s): Takahito Mitsui, Matteo Willeit, and Niklas Boers
Published in: Earth System Dynamics, Issue 14, 6, 2023, Page(s) 1277–1294, ISSN 2190-4987
Publisher: Göttingen Copernicus Publ.
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Extreme Sensitivity and Climate Tipping Points

Author(s): Peter Ashwin, Anna S. von der Heydt
Published in: Journal of Statistical Physics, Issue 179/5-6, 2020, Page(s) 1531-1552, ISSN 0022-4715
Publisher: Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers
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Climate intervention on a high-emissions pathway could delay but not prevent West Antarctic Ice Sheet demise

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Detection of abrupt changes in East Asian monsoon from Chinese loess and speleothem records

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Published in: Global and Planetary Change, Issue 227, 2023, Page(s) 104154, ISSN 0921-8181
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The South American monsoon approaches a critical transition in response to deforestation

Author(s): Nils Bochow and Niklas Boers
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Slow manifolds for infinite-dimensional evolution equations

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Predictors and predictands of linear response in spatially extended systems

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Published in: The European Physical Journal Special Topics, 2021, ISSN 1951-6355
Publisher: EDP Sciences
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Model-Data Comparison of Antarctic Winter Sea-Ice Extent and Southern Ocean Sea-Surface Temperatures During Marine Isotope Stage 5e

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Global stability properties of the climate: Melancholia states, invariant measures, and phase transitions

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Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction

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Published in: Nature communications, Issue 5176, 2022, ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
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Beyond Forcing Scenarios: Predicting Climate Change through Response Operators in a Coupled General Circulation Model.

Author(s): Valerio Lucarini; Valerio Lucarini; Valerio Lembo; Francesco Ragone
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Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
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Multistability and intermediate tipping of the Atlantic Ocean circulation

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Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science
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Dansgaard–Oeschger events in climate models: review and baseline Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3) protocol

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Published in: Climate of the Past, Issue 19, 2023, Page(s) 915–942, ISSN 1814-9324
Publisher: European Geosciences Union (EGU).
DOI: 10.5194/cp-19-915-2023

The PaleoJump database for abrupt transitions in past climates

Author(s): Witold Bagniewski, Michael Ghil & Denis-Didier Rousseau
Published in: Sci Rep, Issue 13, 2023, Page(s) 4472, ISSN 2045-2322
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-30592-1

Other (23)

Reconstructing Historical Climate Fields With Deep Learning

Author(s): Nils Bochow, Anna Poltronieri, Martin Rypdal, Niklas Boers
Published in: arXiv, Issue [preprint], 2023
Publisher: arXiv
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2311.18348

Persistent synchronization of heterogeneous networks with time-dependent linear diffusive coupling

Author(s): Jardón-Kojakhmetov, Hildeberto ; Kuehn, Christian ; Longo, Iacopo P.
Published in: ArXiv, Issue [prerint], 2023
Publisher: Cornell University
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2305.05747

Anticipating critical transitions in multi-dimensional systems driven by time- and state-dependent noise

Author(s): Andreas Morr, Keno Riechers, Leonardo Rydin Gorjão, Niklas Boers
Published in: arXiv, Issue [preprint], 2023
Publisher: ArXiv
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2308.16773

Tipping Point Detection and Early-Warnings in climate, ecological, and human systems

Author(s): Vasilis Dakos, Chris A. Boulton, Josh E. Buxton, Jesse F. Abrams, David I. Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Lana Blaschke, Niklas Boers, Daniel Dylewsky, Carlos López-Martínez, Isobel Parry, Paul Ritchie, Bregje van der Bolt, Larissa van der Laan, Els Weinans, and Sonia Kéfi
Published in: EGUSphere, Issue [preprint], 2023
Publisher: Copenicus
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-1773

Detecting and Attributing Change in Climate and Complex Systems: Foundations, Kolmogorov Modes, and Nonlinear Fingerprints

Author(s): Valerio Lucarini, Mickaël Chekroun
Published in: arXiV, Issue [preprint], 2023
Publisher: Cornell University
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2212.02628

The influence of present-day regional surface mass balance uncertainties on the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Author(s): Christian Wirths, Johannes Sutter, and Thomas Stocker
Published in: EGUsphere, Issue [preprint], 2023
Publisher: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-2233

Spatial correlation increase in single-sensor satellite data reveals loss of Amazon rainforest resilience

Author(s): Lana L. Blaschke, Da Nian, Bathiany, Maya Ben-Yami, Taylor Smith, Chris A. Boulton, Niklas Boers
Published in: arXiv, Issue [preprint], 2023
Publisher: Cornell University
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2310.18540

The Temporal Phasing of Rapid Dansgaard–Oeschger Warming Events Cannot Be Reliably Determined

Author(s): John Slattery, Louise C. Sime, Francesco Muschitiello, and Keno Riechers
Published in: Climate of the Past discussions, Issue [in review], 2023, ISSN 1814-9324
Publisher: European Geosciences Union (EGU).
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-2496

Description and validation of the ice sheet model Nix v1.0

Author(s): Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya, and Jorge Alvarez-Solas
Published in: EGUSphere, Issue [preprint], 2023
Publisher: Copenicus
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-2690

Types, equations, dimensions and the Pi theorem

Author(s): Nicola Botta, Patrik Jansson, Guilherme Horta Alvares Da Silva
Published in: arXiv, Issue [preprint], 2023
Publisher: Cornell university
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2308.09481

Rainfall Seasonality Dominates Critical Precipitation Threshold for the Amazon Forest in the Lpjml Vegetation Model

Author(s): NIAN, DA and Bathiany, Sebastian and Sakschewski, Boris and Drüke, Markus and Blaschke, Lana and Ben-Yami, Maya and von Bloh, Werner and Boers, Niklas
Published in: SSRN, Issue [preprint], 2023
Publisher: SSRN
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.4658035

Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations

Author(s): Sina Loriani, Yevgeny Aksenov, David Armstrong McKay, Govindasamy Bala, Andreas Born, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Henk Dijkstra, Jonathan F. Donges, Sybren Drijfhout, Matthew H. England, Alexey V. Fedorov, Laura Jackson, Kai Kornhuber, Gabriele Messori, Francesco Pausata, Stefanie Rynders, Jean-Baptiste Salée, Bablu Sinha, Steven Sherwood, Didier Swingedouw, and Thejna Tharammal
Published in: Erath system Dynamics, Issue [preprint], 2023
Publisher: Copenicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-2589

A strategy to compute convective timescales of the Indian monsoon with the WRF model

Author(s): Lucy G. Recchia, Valerio Lucarini
Published in: arXiv, Issue [preprint], 2023
Publisher: ArXiV
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2310.15871

Saddle avoidance of noise-induced transitions in multiscale systems

Author(s): Reyk Börner, Ryan Deeley, Raphael Römer, Tobias Grafke, Valerio Lucarini, Ulrike Feudel
Published in: arXiv, Issue [preprint], 2023
Publisher: Cornell University
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2311.10231

Crossing planetary boundaries could lead to Hothouse Earth

Author(s): Erik Chavez, Michael Ghil, Jan Rombouts
Published in: https://www.researchsquare.com/, Issue [preprint], 2024
Publisher: https://www.researchsquare.com/
DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3870378/v1

Internal noise interference in anticipation of tipping points of generic multi-dimensional dynamical systems

Author(s): Andreas Morr, Niklas Boers and Peter Ashwin
Published in: arXiv, Issue [preprint], 2023
Publisher: Cornell University
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2311.18597

Dimensional analysis identifies contrasting dynamics of past climate states and critical transitions

Author(s): Tommaso Alberti, Fabio Florindo, Eelco J. Rohling, Valerio Lucarini, Davide Faranda
Published in: arXiv, Issue [preprint], 2023
Publisher: ArXiV
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2309.12693

Agnostic detection of large-scale weather patterns in the northern hemisphere: from blockings to teleconnections

Author(s): Sebastian Springer, Vera Melinda Galfi, Alessandro Laio, Valerio Lucarini
Published in: arXiv, Issue [preprint], 2023
Publisher: arXiv
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2309.06833

Climate sensitivity, commitment and abrupt change: toward an ontology for climate tipping point research

Author(s): Botta, Nicola; Brede, Nuria; Crucifix, Michel; Marina Martínez Montero
Published in: 2022
Publisher: TiPES
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.6820683

Winter Euro-Atlantic blocking activity less sensitive to climate change than previously evaluated

Author(s): Simon L. L. Michel, Anna S. von der Heydt, Henk A. Dijkstra
Published in: ESS Open Archive, Issue [preprint], 2023
Publisher: Authorea.com
DOI: 10.22541/essoar.168839598.85584521/v1

Decoupling of δ18O from surface temperature in Antarctica in an ensemble of Historical simulations

Author(s): Sentia Oger, Louise Sime, and Max Holloway
Published in: EGUsphere, Issue [preprint], 2023
Publisher: Copenicus
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-2735

Deep learning reconstruction of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation strength validates ongoig twenty-first century decline

Author(s): Simon Michel, Henk Dijkstra, Francesco Guardamagna, Valérian Jacques-Dumas, René van Westen, Anna von der Heydt
Published in: Research Square, Issue [preprint], 2023
Publisher: https://www.researchsquare.com/
DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3377545/v1

A DSL for Monadic Decision Problems, Responsibility under Uncertainty and Tipping Point Notions

Author(s): Botta, Nicola; Brede, Nuria; Crucifix, Michel; Martínez Montero, Marina
Published in: 2022
Publisher: TiPES
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.6820605

Non-peer reviewed articles (7)

On the periodicity of free oscillations for a finite ice column

Author(s): Daniel Moreno, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya, and Jorge Alvarez-Solas
Published in: The Cryosphere Discuss. [preprint], Issue in review, 2022, ISSN 1994-0440
Publisher: Copenicus
DOI: 10.5194/tc-2022-97

Antarctic Tipping points triggered by the mid-Pliocene warm climate

Author(s): Javier Blasco, Ilaria Tabone, Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Frank Pattyn, and Marisa Montoya
Published in: Climateof the Past Discussions, Issue [preprint], 2023, ISSN 1814-9324
Publisher: European Geosciences Union (EGU).
DOI: 10.5194/cp-2023-76

Looking to the (far) future of climate projection.

Author(s): Chris A. Boulton
Published in: Global Change Biology, Issue 7, 2022, ISSN 1354-1013
Publisher: Blackwell Publishing Inc.
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15936

A Climate Science Toolkit for High Impact-Low Likelihood Climate Risks

Author(s): Richard A. Wood, Michel Crucifix, Timothy M. Lenton, Katharine J. Mach, Crystal Moore, Mark New, Simon Sharpe, Thomas F. Stocker, Rowan T. Sutton
Published in: Erath's Future, Issue 11, 4, 2023, Page(s) e2022EF003369, ISSN 2328-4277
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
DOI: 10.1029/2022ef003369

Limits to predictability of the asymptotic state of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a conceptual climate model

Author(s): Mehling, Oliver, Reyk Börner, and Valerio Lucarini
Published in: Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, Issue 134043, 2023, ISSN 0167-2789
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.physd.2023.134043

Can the Miocene climate inform the future?

Author(s): Anna von der Heydt
Published in: Science, Issue 377, 6601, 2022, Page(s) 26-27, ISSN 0036-8075
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science
DOI: 10.1126/science.abq6542

Climate, zoonosis, and interdisciplinarity

Author(s): Michael Ghil
Published in: PNAS, Issue 120 (39), 2023, Page(s) e2311575120, ISSN 0027-8424
Publisher: National Academy of Sciences
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2311575120

Book chapters (4)

Bifurcation Analysis of Systems With Delays: Methods and Their Use in Applications

Author(s): Bernd Krauskopf and Jan Sieber
Published in: Controlling Delayed Dynamics. CISM International Centre for Mechanical Sciences, Issue vol 604., 2022, ISBN 978-3-031-01129-0
Publisher: Springer, Cham.
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-01129-0_7

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Nonautonomous Dynamical Systems, and the Climate Sciences

Author(s): Michael Ghil, Eric Simonnet
Published in: Mathematical Approach to Climate Change and its Impacts - MAC2I, Issue 38, 2020, Page(s) 3-81, ISBN 978-3-030-38668-9
Publisher: Springer International Publishing
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-38669-6_1

Coupled Climate-Economy-Ecology-Biosphere Modeling: A Dynamic and Stochastic Approach

Author(s): Ogutu, K.B.Z., D’Andrea, F., Groth, A., Ghil, M
Published in: Handbook of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation, 2022, Page(s) 225-287, ISBN 978-3-030-72579-2
Publisher: Springer, Cham
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-72579-2_103

An ice-core perspective

Author(s): Sune Olander Rasmussen
Published in: Abrupt Climate Change, Issue 1, 2020, ISBN 978-87-93604-86-5
Publisher: Strandberg publishing