Descrizione del progetto
Effettuare previsioni sui cambiamenti climatici su scale pluridecennali
I cambiamenti climatici sono tutti attorno a noi: dai periodi di siccità più lunghi all’aumento del numero di tempeste tropicali e dalla perdita di ghiaccio marino a ondate di calore più intense. Gli scienziati prevedono che si registrerà un cambiamento del clima globale nel corso di questo secolo, ma sono necessarie maggiori informazioni circa la portata del cambiamento oltre i prossimi decenni. Il progetto CONSTRAIN, finanziato dall’UE, è inteso a colmare le lacune della climatologia e della relativa conoscenza nella formulazione delle politiche attraverso una migliore comprensione di come i fattori naturali e umani influiscano sui cambiamenti climatici regionali pluridecennali. Esso aiuterà gli scienziati nella formulazione di previsioni climatiche per i prossimi 20-50 anni. I risultati del progetto andranno a beneficio della strategia dell’UE di adattamento e mitigazione.
Obiettivo
CONSTRAIN will focus research on three climate science knowledge gaps and a policy-facing knowledge gap that can be resolved over the next 4-5 years to significantly improve our understanding of how natural and human factors affect multi-decadal regional climate change. This will cement EU science as the world-leader in understanding climate sensitivity and climate variability, deliver significantly improved capability to make climate projections for the next 20-50 years, and provide up-to-date scientific evidence for international climate policy in two phases: Phase 1 will deliver a timely characterisation of physical science uncertainty and how it affects projections and committed levels of warming to the 2021 IPCC sixth assessment report; Phase 2 will deliver constrained surface temperature projections for the 2023 UNFCCC Global Stocktake. CONSTRAIN will take full advantage of climate model integrations from the sixth Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and will leverage existing H2020 and ERC projects. Novel CMIP6 analyses will be combined with dedicated high resolution simulations and new observations to address identified knowledge gaps on radiative forcing, cloud feedbacks and the relationship between ocean variability and atmospheric change. A fourth identified knowledge gap is the effective translation of new physical science understanding into an improved evidence base for policy decisions. CONSTRAIN will address this by developing climate model emulators that integrate and operationalise learning from across the consortium to provide new capability to assess impacts of climate change under a broad range of emission scenarios. We will focus on the expected spatially resolved decadal changes until mid-century providing robust evidence on climate sensitivity, and regional temperature, precipitation and circulation changes, thereby enabling evidence-based policy decisions that will directly benefit the EU's adaptation and mitigation strategy.
Campo scientifico
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Parole chiave
Programma(i)
Argomento(i)
Invito a presentare proposte
Vedi altri progetti per questo bandoBando secondario
H2020-LC-CLA-2018-2
Meccanismo di finanziamento
RIA - Research and Innovation actionCoordinatore
LS2 9JT Leeds
Regno Unito