Descripción del proyecto
Revertir el aumento del nivel del mar
El clima del planeta ha experimentado un calentamiento constante y los océanos absorben la mayoría de este calor adicional, lo que provoca un aumento del nivel del mar. Si bien la expansión térmica es un principio reversible, es probable que el nivel del mar continúe aumentando. En el proyecto TiPACCs, financiado con fondos europeos, se investigará la probabilidad reversibilidad. Se corroborará la probabilidad de que acontezcan cambios grandes y repentinos en la contribución del nivel del mar procedente de la capa de hielo antártica, que resultarían de superar puntos de inflexión climáticos en los mares marginales y en las líneas de conexión a tierra de las plataformas de hielo flotantes que bordean la capa de hielo. Un estudio exhaustivo de los procesos desencadenantes revelará la probabilidad de reversibilidad, mientras que el estudio de la retroalimentación hielo-océano ofrecerá información sobre la amenaza de un aumento repentino del nivel del mar.
Objetivo
The TiPACCs project will investigate the probability of sudden and large changes in the sea-level contribution from the Antarctic Ice Sheet that would result from passing tipping points in the marginal seas and at the grounding lines of the floating ice shelves that fringe the ice sheet. A comprehensive study of the triggering processes will reveal the likelihood of reversibility, while the study of ice-ocean feedbacks will provide insight into the threat of sudden sea-level rise. Modelling work will deliver parameter estimates of safe operating spaces, and linking these with Southern Ocean observations will contribute to the launch of early-warning indicators for dangerous levels of ocean-induced basal melting of the ice shelves. We will achieve these objectives using a suite of state-of-the art ocean-circulation and ice-flow models run by leading European research groups, greatly enhancing confidence in the results. The combination of numerical work with existing remote sensing and in-situ observations and paleo-reconstructions is ideal for defining the proximity of the simulated tipping points. With this work, we aim to provide a better understanding of key processes controlling the climate-Earth system that are critical for further improvement in climate projections and reducing uncertainty in climate sensitivity calculations. We will also assess more accurately the impacts of climate change related to the proximity, rate, and reversibility of tipping points in Antarctic climate components. Furthermore, future climate projections will benefit from our combined use of numerical models and paleo-reconstructions as they allow a better understanding of how the climate system worked during abrupt climatic transitions and under warmer or colder than present-day conditions. Thus, the project will dramatically improve our knowledge of sudden sea-level rise caused by tipping points in Antarctic climate components.
Ámbito científico
Palabras clave
Programa(s)
Convocatoria de propuestas
Consulte otros proyectos de esta convocatoriaConvocatoria de subcontratación
H2020-LC-CLA-2018-2
Régimen de financiación
RIA - Research and Innovation actionCoordinador
5838 Bergen
Noruega