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Tipping Points in Antarctic Climate Components

Project description

Reversing sea level rise

The global climate has been warming and most of this extra heat is stored in the ocean, resulting in sea level rise. While thermal expansion is in principle reversible, sea levels are likely to continue to rise. The EU-funded TiPACCs project will investigate the likelihood of reversibility. It will check the probability of sudden and large changes in the sea level contribution from the Antarctic ice sheet that would result from passing tipping points in the marginal seas and at the grounding lines of the floating ice shelves that fringe the ice sheet. A comprehensive study of the triggering processes will reveal the likelihood of reversibility, while the study of ice–ocean feedbacks will provide insight into the threat of sudden sea level rise.

Objective

The TiPACCs project will investigate the probability of sudden and large changes in the sea-level contribution from the Antarctic Ice Sheet that would result from passing tipping points in the marginal seas and at the grounding lines of the floating ice shelves that fringe the ice sheet. A comprehensive study of the triggering processes will reveal the likelihood of reversibility, while the study of ice-ocean feedbacks will provide insight into the threat of sudden sea-level rise. Modelling work will deliver parameter estimates of safe operating spaces, and linking these with Southern Ocean observations will contribute to the launch of early-warning indicators for dangerous levels of ocean-induced basal melting of the ice shelves. We will achieve these objectives using a suite of state-of-the art ocean-circulation and ice-flow models run by leading European research groups, greatly enhancing confidence in the results. The combination of numerical work with existing remote sensing and in-situ observations and paleo-reconstructions is ideal for defining the proximity of the simulated tipping points. With this work, we aim to provide a better understanding of key processes controlling the climate-Earth system that are critical for further improvement in climate projections and reducing uncertainty in climate sensitivity calculations. We will also assess more accurately the impacts of climate change related to the proximity, rate, and reversibility of tipping points in Antarctic climate components. Furthermore, future climate projections will benefit from our combined use of numerical models and paleo-reconstructions as they allow a better understanding of how the climate system worked during abrupt climatic transitions and under warmer or colder than present-day conditions. Thus, the project will dramatically improve our knowledge of sudden sea-level rise caused by tipping points in Antarctic climate components.

Call for proposal

H2020-LC-CLA-2018-2019-2020

See other projects for this call

Sub call

H2020-LC-CLA-2018-2

Coordinator

NORCE NORWEGIAN RESEARCH CENTRE AS
Net EU contribution
€ 1 181 346,73
Address
NYGARDSGATEN 112
5838 Bergen
Norway

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Region
Norge Vestlandet Vestland
Activity type
Research Organisations
Links
Total cost
€ 1 181 346,73

Participants (6)