Advancing Copernicus for improved ocean monitoring
Our oceans are essential, absorbing 30 % of human-generated carbon emissions and 90 % of excess heat, as well as providing 17 % of the world’s animal protein. Understanding its processes is vital to our own climate and food security. The Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) provides systematic reference data on the physical and biogeochemical state of the marine environment (including sea ice), as well as data on dynamics across the global ocean. This is the foundation on which many marine models are built. However, marine ecosystem models have offered limited predictive ability, forecasting harmful events such as oxygen depletion and nutrient pollution only five to six days ahead. These forecasts often lacked precision due to insufficient integration with real-world data. The SEAMLESS project set out to advance CMEMS’ capability to more accurately evaluate climate change impacts on ocean ecosystems and food security. “CMEMS often lacks reliable information about model uncertainty and the relationships between observed and unobserved parts of the marine system,” explains project coordinator Jozef Skakala, from Plymouth Marine Laboratory in the United Kingdom. “This limits the quality of forecasts and ecosystem simulations.” SEAMLESS set out to deliver a more complete understanding of how human activity and climate change affect marine ecosystems. By improving the accuracy of models, the project has provided critical insights into ocean health, and this new knowledge will inform policies and practices to promote sustainable management of Europe’s marine resources. New methods were developed to integrate data from physics and biogeochemistry, using observations from both satellites and in situ sources. By using new data assimilation methods that can account for model uncertainty, this prototype system better connects different simulated processes and variables that affect ecosystem indicators, linking plankton dynamics, carbon cycling and other critical processes.
Bridging gaps
The enhanced ocean model data provided by SEAMLESS improves our ability to monitor and assess marine ecosystem health in policy frameworks, implement marine spatial planning, operate aquaculture and fisheries, and investigate the impact of climate change and human activities on ocean ecosystems. Additionally, new observation platforms such as sea gliders and biogeochemical Argo floats were integrated into Copernicus, enhancing data accuracy and depth. SEAMLESS also equipped five European forecasting centres within the Copernicus Marine Service with tools to better predict oceanic changes in the North Sea, North Atlantic, Mediterranean Sea, Baltic Sea and Arctic Sea. These advancements helped forecast harmful events such as nutrient pollution and algal blooms, while deepening understanding of how ecosystems respond to human activity and climate change. “New knowledge will inform policies to promote sustainable management of Europe’s oceans,” says Skakala.
Significant outcomes
By the end of the project, SEAMLESS had significantly advanced CMEMS’ ability to provide improved simulations of the past and future predictions regarding ocean conditions. These reanalyses and forecasts will be valuable to various stakeholders, including policymakers, coastal planners, monitoring institutions, aquaculture farmers and climate change scientists. Additionally, the project has created an open-source, user-friendly assimilative modelling prototype that is already training stakeholders on how to run marine forecasts – helping to build the next generation of experts who will protect our oceans.
Keywords
SEAMLESS, Copernicus, CMEMS, marine ecosystems, data assimilation, food security, models
