Innovative modelling of household energy consumption
From a morning shower to an evening bath, we all have our own routines which influence when, and how much, energy we use. These consumption patterns can vary based on when people are home, how insulated their home is, even by how much sunlight comes in. It’s no surprise then that predicting household consumption patterns across hundreds or thousands of homes is a major challenge, even for the most sophisticated prediction models. The WHY project aims to address this by developing more accurate energy system models (ESMs), using innovative methodologies for short- and long-term forecasting. ESMs are tools that help energy analysts, planners and policymakers to rationally describe energy systems and systematically evaluate the impacts of long-term scenarios. “ESMs have been widely used to develop and explore pathways for climate change mitigation and assess strategies to decarbonise the energy system, but they lack the degree of accuracy we need on the energy demand side,” explains Cruz E. Borges, coordinator of WHY on behalf of the University of Deusto in Spain. “On the other hand, WHY consortium members have experience building models of household behaviour, so we decided to join forces.” Building on existing behaviours which can currently be seen (such as avoiding excessive energy use during high tariff periods), the team developed a causal model that maps the underlying decision-making processes of consumers. This way, it’s possible to not only assess the outcome of an intervention (e.g. the impact of a new energy tax), but also understand the future or past status of the system (e.g. how much energy households would consume if energy efficiency labels had never been implemented). Together this offers a more accurate and actionable framework for policy development and implementation.
Ensuring accuracy and impact
The WHY project employs a meticulous validation process, incorporating expert knowledge and natural experiments to construct and assess its models. “The models constructed have been assessed by a panel of more than 30 interdisciplinary experts, cross-checked with established tools and databases,” Borges notes. This rigorous validation ensures the reliability and robustness of the project’s findings, which advocate a combination of energy efficiency improvements and low-carbon energy sources to decarbonise European homes effectively. The project opens new avenues for research and application, aiming to extend its methodologies to model collective investment behaviours in energy transition and to enhance the real-world applicability of its technologies. Further academic engagement, skill workshops and open science practices look set to foster widespread adoption and implementation of the project’s innovative models. WHY stands as a testament to the power of interdisciplinary collaboration and innovative thinking in addressing the complex challenges of climate change and residential energy efficiency. By providing a more nuanced understanding of energy use patterns and introducing advanced modelling techniques, the project not only contributes to the scientific community but also offers practical solutions for policymakers, stakeholders and European citizens striving for a sustainable energy future.
Keywords
WHY, WHY project, energy system models, energy consumption
