Novel modelling tools yield up-to-date climate reports
Climate change is the most critical issue facing humanity, and several agencies address the causes of global warming. However, the rate of change is increasing, and policymakers need accurate and timely information. The EU-funded project CONSTRAIN targets recognised knowledge gaps in three areas: radiative forcing, cloud feedbacks, and the relationship between ocean variability and atmospheric change. The project also initiated a more frequent update of key climate information.
Paris Agreement goals
In 2015, the Paris Agreement was adopted by 196 parties. This multinational agreement is focused on constraining the rising average temperature of the planet. The Paris Agreement galvanised climate change initiatives, and led to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on 1.5C. The IPCC reporting cycle updates every 5 to 10 years, with the most recent (AR6) concluding in 2023. It provides comprehensive information to guide policy, but the long reporting cycle does not address the rapid developments in climate science. In 2023, the Indicators of Global Climate Change (IGCC) was formed to address this knowledge gap. CONSTRAIN’s work is closely aligned with the IGCC. According to project coordinator Piers Forster: “The intention of the IGCC is to update the indicators reported by the IPCC on an annual basis, thus helping to fill the knowledge gap between the publication of IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) and the next iteration, likely due in 2030.” One of the major outcomes of the project was the publication of the first IGCC paper, which included a large body of CONSTRAIN research alongside a wider community effort.
New modelling tools address knowledge gaps
In addition to the publication of the first IGCC paper, another major project accomplishment was the development of various climate modelling tools, including Silicone, to support near-term climate modelling. Silicone enhances existing integrated assessment models by linking what is known about common emissions to rarer ones. The project also involved the use, further development, and assessment of simple climate models known as emulators. A distinguishing feature of the emulators is their simplicity. Forster states: “Simple climate models capture the behaviour of more complex Earth system models, but at a much lower computational cost. This allows them to be calibrated to observations and make a more detailed exploration of climate projections and emissions pathways than would otherwise be possible.”
Paving the path to policy
Creating accurate and detailed reports is essential to combating climate change, but unless it is translated into more accessible material, such information can often remain inert. CONSTRAIN has employed several avenues to connect with stakeholders, policymakers and citizens. In addition to the first IGCC paper, the project also supported the development of the IGCC dashboard. The purpose of the dashboard is to make data on how the climate system is changing more accessible and user friendly. While its primary audience is policymakers, the dashboard can amplify the communication of climate data to a much wider audience. Another avenue for communication is the Zero In report series that directly connects scientific updates from the project and beyond to the Paris Agreement. Additionally, there are hundreds of journal articles connected to the project, further broadcasting CONSTRAIN’s contributions within the scientific community. When it comes to climate change, humanity is on a dangerous course. We can’t afford to take our eyes off the road, or our hands off the wheel. CONSTRAIN, by employing novel modelling tools and timely updates, is helping to steer Earth stewardship in the right direction.
Keywords
CONSTRAIN, climate change, IGCC, policy, IPCC, modelling tools, Paris Agreement, climate data
