Delaying or refusing COVID-19 vaccines: The effects of misinformation
A recent study has confirmed what many of us have suspected: the misinformation spread in online media about COVID-19 vaccines has a negative impact on vaccination campaigns. Conducted with partial support from the EU-funded PERISCOPE project, the study investigated the extent to which COVID-19 vaccination rates and vaccine hesitancy in the United States (US) are associated with levels of online misinformation about vaccines. The researchers’ findings were published in the journal ‘Scientific Reports’. Misinformation about COVID-19 includes claims that vaccines genetically manipulate people or even contain tracking microchips that connect to 5G networks. To study the effects of false information about vaccines on the US vaccination campaign, the research team leveraged data from Twitter, Facebook and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (or CDC, the US national public health agency). Analysis of the millions of vaccine-related tweets, responses to daily Facebook surveys and CDC vaccination uptake data confirmed the inevitable: there is a statistically significant association between the amount of online misinformation and people’s tendency to refuse or delay vaccination in the US. In fact, states and counties in which consumption of online misinformation was highest were found to have higher levels of vaccination hesitancy, ultimately leading to lower vaccination rates. “The results of the multiple linear regression model, which includes other socio-economic variables, such as the average wealth and ethnic composition of each state/county, show that the proportion of misinformation shared on average by users in a given area is positively correlated with the proportion of people who declare they have no intention of getting vaccinated and, similarly, negatively correlated with the number of vaccine doses administered,” explains study lead author Dr Francesco Pierri of PERISCOPE project partner Politecnico Di Milano, Italy, in a news release posted on ‘EurekAlert!’
Politics in the mix
The researchers also found significant associations between vaccine outcomes and misinformation when accounting for political factors. “While vaccine hesitancy is strongly associated with Republican vote share, we observe that the effect of online misinformation on hesitancy is strongest across Democratic rather than Republican counties,” the authors report in the study. The study also provides evidence that misinformation actually helps forecast vaccine hesitancy, especially at county level. Analysis of the data points to “a lag of around 2–6 days from misinformation posted in a county to a corresponding increase in vaccine hesitancy in the same county.” After taking into account vaccine uptake variability across regions with different levels of misinformation, the researchers predict a 20 % decrease in vaccine uptake between states and a 67 % increase in hesitancy rates across Democratic counties. “At these levels of vaccine uptake, the data predict SARS-CoV-2 will remain endemic in many U.S. regions.” The next step is obvious. Measures must be taken to counter misinformation so people can make better-informed health decisions. PERISCOPE (Pan-European Response to the ImpactS of COVID-19 and future Pandemics and Epidemics) is promoting evidence-based policymaking and developing solutions to prepare Europe for future epidemic outbreaks. The 3-year project ends in October 2023. For more information, please see: PERISCOPE project web page
Keywords
PERISCOPE, COVID-19, vaccine, vaccination, uptake, hesitancy, misinformation, online
