Copenhagen targets will not slow global warming, new report warns
The carbon emissions reduction pledges that were agreed as part of the Copenhagen Accord in December 2009 will not limit global warming levels to 2°C, warn climate researchers in a new report published in the journal Nature. What we will most likely see is an average global temperature increase of more than 3°C this century. The analysis was carried out by researchers from the Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research (PIK), the climate change assessment company Climate Analytics, both in Germany, and the Dutch-based renewable energy company Ecofys 'It is amazing how unambitious these pledges are,' the scientists write, referring to the differences between the Copenhagen Accord's aim to keep global warming beneath 2°C, and what the emissions reduction pledges of many countries are actually likely to achieve. The report highlights the fact that the stated aims of many countries will raise annual emissions of greenhouse gases 10%-20% above the current levels, reaching a high of 47.9 to 53.6 Gt CO2 (gigatonnes of carbon dioxide) by 2020. This would put the odds of global warming levels exceeding the 2°C limit by the end of this century at 50%. The authors note that emissions reductions are most likely to reflect the least ambitious parts of most countries' reduction pledges. 'In the worst case, we could end up with emissions allowances exceeding the business-as-usual projections,' said lead author of the report Joeri Rogelj of PIK. The team analysed various loopholes in the Copenhagen Accord, including the controversial area of surplus allowances, through which a country can 'store up' surplus emission allowances to use at a later date if it keeps it levels below those stated in the Kyoto Protocol. 'Under the Kyoto Protocol, some countries' targets were so weak that large amounts of surplus allowances have been and will be generated over the 2008-12 period, even without any environmental policy effort,' the authors explain. They add that countries will probably make more and more use of surplus allowances 'because anything profitable is likely to be pursued'. The researchers compiled their data from emission reduction pledges submitted by countries to the Copenhagen Accord. For the countries that did not submit targets, the team used previous emission reduction announcements. They also used a business-as-usual scenario for the countries that made no pledge. All the figures were put through a coupled carbon cycle climate model and the results showed that at the stated reduction levels, global warming would actually exceed 3°C by the beginning of the next century. Commenting on the climate model's prediction, co-author Dr Malte Meinshausen of PIK said: '48 Gt CO2 emissions by 2020 is not on track to meet the 2°C goal - it is like racing towards a cliff and hoping to stop just before it.' As part of the Copenhagen Accord, 76 countries (which between them are responsible for about 80% of global greenhouse gas emissions) submitted pledges to limit their emissions by 2020. The only two countries that made pledges in line with the 2°C target are Japan and Norway. The target submitted by the US was for a reduction of 17% below 2005 levels by 2020. This is equivalent to only 3% below 1990 levels, even though estimates say that 25%-40% reductions are necessary in developed countries. China's target corresponds to a business-as-usual scenario, while the European Union's targets are for a 20%-30% emissions cut.
Countries
Germany, Netherlands