Novel solutions to tackle cognitive biases in intelligence analysis
In the intelligence community, cognitive biases compromise the results, and so do general rules of thumb (or heuristics) that intelligence officers may have inadvertently developed. Individuals in the intelligence fields are being retrained to offset the pitfalls. The EU-funded RECOBIA (Reduction of cognitive biases in intelligence analysis) project worked on reducing the negative impact of subconscious cognitive mechanisms in intelligence analysis. Project partners assessed cognitive biases and how they influence intelligence analysis. They identified 31 biases after initially documenting 288, and mapped over 1 000 daily activities of intelligence officers in the organisational, operational, informational, technological and cognitive domains to spot any correlations. The daily activities were ultimately grouped into key intelligence tasks (KITs) explaining duties that intelligence officers perform every day from a cognitive and intelligence perspective. The RECOBIA team used the KITs to identify the context and actions where these biases potentially affect intelligence officers. Using the findings as a basis, researchers developed mitigation methodologies and three different strategies that are consistent with the intelligence community's needs and focus on the most relevant cognitive biases. They can be implemented by individual intelligence analysts or institutions to create tailored mitigation strategies. To determine the requirements of the intelligence community and validate mitigation solutions, six workshops were organised that attracted more than 100 participants from 21 national intelligence agencies. RECOBIA shed light on the human dimension of intelligence. This will help upgrade safety and security, improving coordination and exchanges in the intelligence community in the EU.
Keywords
Cognitive biases, intelligence analysis, intelligence officers, intelligence community
