Description du projet
Recherche mondiale de points chauds témoins de phénomènes de sécheresse et d’inondation
Les scientifiques mettent en garde contre de nouvelles catastrophes allant de la sécheresse aux inondations à l’avenir en raison du changement climatique mondial. Alors que les sécheresses et les inondations sont actuellement étudiées et gérées séparément, le projet PerfectSTORM financé par le CER étudiera les événements sécheresse-inondation pour améliorer notre compréhension des interactions sous-jacentes entre l’hydrologie et la société. Plus précisément, des récits qualitatifs seront recueillis au moyen d’entretiens narratifs et d’ateliers de simulation mentale. Des scénarios quantitatifs seront développés à partir d’une série chronologique de données hydrologiques et sociales qui seront analysées et modélisées. Les chercheurs étudieront également des ensembles de données mondiales pour découvrir les types et les points chauds mondiaux de phénomènes allant de la sécheresse aux inondations. La modélisation socio-hydrologique sera en outre utilisée pour développer un futur espace de possibilité 3D.
Objectif
Future climate projections show a strengthening of the hydrological cycle with more droughts and floods expected. This means a higher likelihood of cascading drought-to-flood disasters such as the Millennium Drought – Brisbane flooding in Australia or the California drought – Oroville spillway collapse in the US. Current research and management treat floods and droughts as independent, which leads to large underestimations of their future risk. Droughts allow ample time for impacts and adaptation, which influence hazard, exposure, and vulnerability of a subsequent flood. There are anecdotal examples of these events, but research is needed on the underlying interactions between hydrology and society. In the PerfectSTORM project (‘STOrylines of futuRe extreMes’), I propose to study drought-to-flood events to provide the understanding needed to prevent major disasters in the future. The innovative approach that I will develop is based on a combination of qualitative and quantitative storylines of past and future drought-to-flood risk in case studies and extrapolation of this rich case study information to the global scale. Qualitative storylines will be collected with narrative interviews and mental simulation workshops and will be edited and analysed. Quantitative storylines will be developed from timeseries of hydrological and social data that will be analysed and modelled. These storylines will then be combined in an iterative way using innovative data visualisation. A range of global datasets will be analysed to find global types and hotspots of drought-to-flood events and a global future 3D possibility space will be developed using socio-hydrological modelling. Positive pathways for future management of drought-to-flood events in different parts of the world will then be explored. The PerfectSTORM project will provide in-depth understanding of the hydrosocial feedbacks and dynamic vulnerability of cascading hazards.
Champ scientifique
Not validated
Not validated
Mots‑clés
Programme(s)
Thème(s)
Régime de financement
ERC-STG - Starting GrantInstitution d’accueil
1081 HV Amsterdam
Pays-Bas