Descripción del proyecto
En busca de focos mundiales de fenómenos de sequía a inundación
Los científicos avisan de más catástrofes causadas por sequías e inundaciones en el futuro debido al cambio climático mundial. Si bien, en la actualidad, las sequías y las inundaciones se estudian y gestionan por separado, el proyecto financiado por el Consejo Europeo de Investigación PerfectSTORM estudiará los fenómenos de sequía a inundación a fin de mejorar la comprensión sobre las interacciones subyacentes entre la hidrología y la sociedad. En concreto, se recopilarán líneas de eventos cualitativas a través de entrevista narrativas y talleres de simulación mental, y se desarrollarán líneas de eventos cuantitativas a partir de series temporales de datos sociales e hidrológicos que se analizarán y modelizarán. Los investigadores estudiarán asimismo conjuntos de datos mundiales a fin de descubrir tipos y focos mundiales de fenómenos de sequía a inundación. Además, se empleará la modelización sociohidrológica para desarrollar un espacio tridimensional de posibilidades futuras.
Objetivo
Future climate projections show a strengthening of the hydrological cycle with more droughts and floods expected. This means a higher likelihood of cascading drought-to-flood disasters such as the Millennium Drought – Brisbane flooding in Australia or the California drought – Oroville spillway collapse in the US. Current research and management treat floods and droughts as independent, which leads to large underestimations of their future risk. Droughts allow ample time for impacts and adaptation, which influence hazard, exposure, and vulnerability of a subsequent flood. There are anecdotal examples of these events, but research is needed on the underlying interactions between hydrology and society. In the PerfectSTORM project (‘STOrylines of futuRe extreMes’), I propose to study drought-to-flood events to provide the understanding needed to prevent major disasters in the future. The innovative approach that I will develop is based on a combination of qualitative and quantitative storylines of past and future drought-to-flood risk in case studies and extrapolation of this rich case study information to the global scale. Qualitative storylines will be collected with narrative interviews and mental simulation workshops and will be edited and analysed. Quantitative storylines will be developed from timeseries of hydrological and social data that will be analysed and modelled. These storylines will then be combined in an iterative way using innovative data visualisation. A range of global datasets will be analysed to find global types and hotspots of drought-to-flood events and a global future 3D possibility space will be developed using socio-hydrological modelling. Positive pathways for future management of drought-to-flood events in different parts of the world will then be explored. The PerfectSTORM project will provide in-depth understanding of the hydrosocial feedbacks and dynamic vulnerability of cascading hazards.
Ámbito científico
Palabras clave
Programa(s)
Régimen de financiación
ERC-STG - Starting GrantInstitución de acogida
1081 HV Amsterdam
Países Bajos