IT tools and methods for managing migration FLOWS

Deliverables

Analysis on migration drivers and trajectories along The Eastern Mediterranean Route (South-Central Asia & Middle East); Central and Western Mediterranean Routes (North, West, and the Horn of Africa); Atlantic Air Route (South America)

It will map a wide range of factors covering political and governance dynamics demographic trends human and socioeconomic development conflicts and the role of external actors among others The focus will then shift to the intervening factors along the main regions of transit facilitating impeding or shaping the direction of crossbordermovement such as migrant smuggling networks policies likely to impact on mobility patterns information and social network effects and human rights violations

Final project report

Monitoring project execution at an administrative level as well as ensuring the timely delivery of the regular EC reports M18 M37

Users Board Participatory Feedback Report

In month 5 a workshop with all UB members will be held in order to gather firsthand feedback on the challenges needs and priorities in their area of expertise and within the territory covered by every enduser The feedback gathered during the workshop will beessential to draft and deliver the Users Board Participatory Feedback Report month 6 The report will synthesise the UBs functional requirements and will represent a key part of the input necessary to drive the development of the EMT specifications and architecture conducted in T61 and the furher design of the tool

Report on Human Rights, Ethical, Societal and Data protection risks assessments

It will include an Ethical and Societal Impact Assessment UABBUL and a Data Protection Impact Assessment FIZ pursuant to Article 35 GDPR

Report of migration modelling and simulation

It will design the simulation component of the EMT We will analyse the information obtained from WP2 WP3 WP4 WP5 and WP6 related to the global management of migration movements To forecast the distribution of incoming refugees across destination countries under a range of different policy situations it will integrate existing solutions such as the Flee agentbased modelling code and the FabSim3 automation toolkitwhich are currently used in the H2020 HiDALGO Centre of Excellence project The main aim of the platform will be to predict movements of migrants arriving in the EU As part of this task we will also identify and integrate a range of data sources which it will then use either as input for the simulations or as validation targets

Quantitative report: predicting bilateral migration flows using Google Trends data

The Googlesearchquerybased index and the underlying list of keywords and search queries will also be used to identify relevant topics Aiming to improve predictive performance further we will combine Googlebased data The methodology and results will be presented in a research paper D36 while the data we will generate will feed into the prediction of migration flows at highfrequency WP6

Stakeholders Database & Report on planned engagement activities

It will be activated from the outset and continually work on this throughout the projectlifetime in order to actively engage with targeted stakeholders to ensure real impact Stakeholder engagement is an intrinsic successful factor for the implementation of ITFLOWS

Analysis of the role of contextual factors and dynamics of attitudes on social media, especially hate speech

It will conduct econometric analyses to improve the understanding of the determinants of hate speech and related phenomena For this we will rely on geographically disaggregated data at the destination country level available eg from Eurostat

Analysis on micro- and macro-level factors affecting attitudes to immigration based on original analysis

Based on the identification of the most influential factors affecting attitudes to immigration from the literature T 51 it will analyse individual survey data European Social Survey Eurobarometer World Value Survey combined with aggregatelevel data on countries Eurostat Word Bank etc to identify micro and macrolevel factors affecting attitudes to immigrantsimmigration policies We will do so by means of multilevel modelling techniques which is a statistical technique that is particularly appropriate for nested data such as respondents in surveys nested in countries and which allows to disentangle the effects certain countrylevel factors such as GDP per capita the level of inequality within a country etc that might play in shaping attitudes towards immigration

Analysis with meta-analytical results of microand macro- level factors affecting attitudes to immigration based on results from the last 10 years in 5 disciplines

It will create a multidisciplinary systematic metaanalytical overview of the state of knowledge of the past 10 years regarding the most prominent micro and macro level factors associated with variations in attitudes to immigration across individuals and across countries It will be based on a review of the literature in different disciplines such as economics sociology political science psychology and geographydemography

Final Exploitation plan

It is based in the Preliminary Expoitation Plan M18 Information gathered during events from local national and international stakeholders across all sectors will be used to inform the development of a business plan for exploitation of the EMT

Report on the specifications and architecture of the EMT platform

It will consist of a dialogue between 1 the technological partners in charge of creating the models and the EMT 2 the partners that will collect and analyse data in the previous WPs and 3 enduser partners The main goal is to translate the enduser requirements defined in T71 to formal specifications for EMT that will lead to the design its architecture Additionally partners responsible for WPs related to data collection will specify the available data sources whereas openintelligence data sources eg news videos web articles etc will be explored Based on enduser requirements and designated data sources technological partners will identify and define the core functionalities and specifications of EMT Based on these the EMT architecture will be defined that will guide the development phase ensure that it is wellaligned with enduser expectations

Qualitative report: Migration intentions, trajectories and outcomes: The role of agency

The interviews conducted in T34 will be transcribed by month 17 CRI OIT OCC to be then used to i validate the assumptions on migration destination intentions as to complement the twitter data T33 and ii to be analysed and turned into a report

Overview report (available via EMT) on relevant socio -economic situation in each EU member state covered in project, and dataset on economic situation as input in EMT and for WPs 3, 5, 6 and assess the possibility of access via APIs

In the first part of this deliverable an overview of the economic and social situation in relevant EU member states will be created compiling indicators that can affect migration decisions planned destinations and integration trajectories after arrival In close cooperation with other work packages it will also identify sources of live data from APIs that could be integrated into the EUMigraTool The data we compile in this task will also contribute to standardising data sources across work packages A manual and code examples explaining how these data sources can be used after the project aims to widen the use of modern data sources beyond the project

Report on the Legal, Societal Impact and Ethical Monitoring of the ITFLOWS

It involves an ad hoc and ongoing monitoring process of the project both from an internal and external perspective with the aim of ensuring the implementation of the ITFLOWS Regulatory model at all stages of the project research activities and particularly with regard to the EUMigraTool There will be 2 versions aInitial M12 and bfinal M36

Five thematic policy briefs in the field of migration

The themes of the policy briefs will bea Policy brief 1 Aligning EU policies to the drivers of migration in origin and transit countriesb Policy brief 2 Root causes and factors contributing to possible tensions within the native population in their attitudes towards immigrantsrefugees across European countriesc Policy brief 3 Effective relocation policies in light of social and economic realities with a particular focus on the desirability and the feasibility of EUwide initiatives for the relocation of asylum seekers and refugeesd Policy brief 4 Effective policies for the socioeconomic integration of immigrants to the EUe Policy brief 5 Good practices and asylum policy commitments according to human rights

Reports on (1) the impact of family migration and family reunification of refugees and other migrants (2) secondary movements within the EU

Recent German panel data to create estimates of expected numbers of arrivals to be used for family reunification programmes will be used An additional analysis will assess future potential magnitudes of family migration inflows as well as their demographic and labor market implications Existing and updated data sources for information on the secondary movement of refugees within the EU will be also examinedPropensities for different groups of arriving migrants to move further within the EU after their arrival will be also analysed

Interim project report

Monitoring project execution at an administrative level as well as ensuring the timely delivery of the regular EC reports M18 M36

EMT Test and Validation Report

It will be the output of the validation of the EMT for a TRL6 that is in real and relevant environments provided by the UB members The report will begin by using the KPIs provided from T71 to build a series of Test cases that will validate the full range of the EMTs proposed functionalities The data used for test cases will be similar to the production data from T65 anonymised or pseudonymised Validation techniques will include where relevant both qualitative techniques eg longitudinal andor onceoff feedback and quantitative techniques eg user usage log file data andor user location data The level of access for each category of users will be provided to the stakeholders based on a secure procedure

Quantitative analysis on the role of transit countries in shaping migration flows to Europe

It will provide new evidence on the role of transit countries in shaping bilateral migration flows to which academic literature has paid minor attention Drawing on similar approaches used in analysing how climatic factors drive bilateral migration it will incorporate transit countries characteristics in the regression models for analysing the determinants of bilateral migration flows We will gather data on relevant conditions in transit countries such as infrastructure quality conflicts climatic conditions and governance indicators and incorporate them to our dataset on bilateral migration flows so as to estimate their impact on the flows

Report on the ITFLOWS Legal and Ethical framework

It will focus among other issues on the prohibition of nondiscrimination minority rights migrant rights and intersectionality standards related to fundamental human rights the idea of integration and how this is linked to human rights standards It will serve as the basis for the work of the project Later on consistency with all these elements will be a continuous process the team will work closely with the technical members ensuring that the required standards are not compromised by the technical innovations of the project In addition it will outline the EU legal framework on privacy and data protection tohekp the partners comply with the applicable requirements when designing the tool and performing the research work in the project eg carrying out interviews

Report on the ITFLOWS Regulatory Model

It entails the definition of a Compliance through design CtD strategy particularly designed for ITFLOWS The aim is to ensure that the project reaches the right balance between the advancement and innovation foreseen and the alignment of the research activities and the EUMigraTool with the relevant ethical and legal requirementsand the societal values previously identified in T21 It will further include the definition of measures organisational and technical directed to address the risks identified in T22

Preliminary Exploitation Plan

In month 18 the Consortium will prepare a preliminary Exploitation Plan

Final EMT Analysis Report

It will be the output of the validation results from T73 and perform an analysis from them while at the same time incorporating an analysis of the future societal impact of these validation results This study will also assess how the tool could be expanded to other countries ie what information do they already have what do they need tocollect what can be linked etc It is an important closing analysis of the various WP7 activities that have preceded it

EMT User Guide

An online communityforum will be developed to facilitate engagement amongst a sustainable community of UB members This involves the development of an online environment support forum wiki knowledge repository access to training material that facilitates primarily knowledge transfer but also supports services The online environment will be seamlessly integrated within the overall project website An EMT User Guide that coalesces all of the above will be produced

Report describing the dataset used in training ITFLOWS social listening system and the methodology used to prepare and annotate it

It aims at better understanding the destination intentions of prospective migrants includes filtering tweets based on i trending hashtags about the current migration situations ii tweets geographical information ie mention of locations tweets location of origin and iii use of a particular language This method will also help extract the opinions of experts residing in origin host or third countries from their official twitter accounts Timebased constraints will also be provided for initial filtering whenthe migration was at its peak We will describe the dataset used in training ITFLOWS social listening system and the methodology used to prepare and annotate it in a report

Reports on (1) outcomes of migrant integration, (2) analysis of member states asylum and refugee law and procedures how integration policies apply

It will use data from the NIEM project funded by the European Commission A corresponding binary analysis of the EUinternal level will be conducted for law and procedures relevant to asylum seekers and refugees The final analysis will provide a quantitative NIEMbased analysis of the role of various integration policies on observed integration outcomes of beneficiaries of international protection

Quantitative report on the time structure of forced displacement and annotated dataset on forced displacement

It will provide evidence on the time sequence of migration from origin countries toneighbouring and transit countries which is oftentimes neglected in research despite being essential for accurately predicting migration flows Focusing on Africa we will combine displacement data provided by the IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix DTM with highfrequency information on conflict and climatic shocks in origin countries It will regress the changes in the number of displaced persons over a given period on simultaneous changes in the conflict and climate incidents to learn which time lag between the incidents and displacement has the most predictive power It will present our results along with the dataset underlying it which will also feed into the simulation of migration flows WP6

Communication & Dissemination Strategy

It will set out and plan for ITFLOWS communication dissemination and impact activities

Data management plan

Data Management Plan DMP will be delivered in M6 The plan will describe the expected data management life cycle for the data to be collected processed andor generated by ITFLOWS For making ITFLOWS research data findable accessible interoperable and reusable FAIR the DMP will include information on the handling of research data during and after the end of the projectwhat data to be collected processed or generated methodology and standards to be applied whether data will be shared or open access and how data will be curated and preserved

Gender Action Plan

The gender mainstreaming approach promoted in ITFLOWS will be detailed in a Gender Action Plan WP2 It will be devised at the outset of the project and will minimise specific inequalities that could affect the ITFLOWS project As an example panels and policy events organised within ITFLOWS will incorporate at least 50 female participantsspeakers The Gender Action Plan will also identify contexts that may place certain subgroups of migrants in a disproportionately vulnerable position and therefore in need of protection For instance it will analyse the problems and needs faced by female male and LGBTQ migrants in every phase of the migration process Gender and intersectional analysis will also provide a more accurate representation of the models andpatterns of migrants and their sociodemographic impact on EU countries WP5 This cluster will examine how gender and its intersection with other forms of discrimination affect the asylum application process and it will also reflect the social and economic contribution of migrants to the country of destination

Preliminary release of the EMT

Based on the revised mockups visual interfaces will be designed to present the simulation results Visual analytic tools will be developed for interactively exploring simulation results and collected data incorporating techniques for the correlation analysis between raw data sources and simulation These techniques will include baseline techniques such as scatter plots bar charts timelines etc as well as more sophisticated approaches including graphbased visualization models for correlation exploration and magnification techniques for focusing on specific regions

Software Prototype Release of Social Media Analysis Tool to monitor public attitudes towards migration including the basic filtering

Huge number of tweets leading to computational issues will be dealt with by designing scalable methods based on distributed computing using platforms available for Big Dataprocessing such as Apache Spark Hadoop Keras etc

GEN - Requirement No. 6

A report from the Independent Ethics Board must be submitted in month 24.

H - Requirement No. 1

The informed consent/assent procedures that will be implemented for the participation of humans must be submitted.Templates of the informed consent/assent forms and information sheets covering the voluntary participation (humans) and data protection issues (both in language and terms intelligible to the participants) must be submitted.The procedures and criteria that will be used to identify/recruit research participants must be submitted.The applicant must clarify the measures to protect vulnerable individuals/groups and minimise the risk of their stigmatisation. This must be submitted.Details on incidental findings policy must be must be submitted.

POPD - Requirement No. 3

The host institution must confirm that it has appointed a Data Protection Officer (DPO) and the contact details of the DPO are made available to all data subjects involved in the research. For host institutions not required to appoint a DPO under the GDPR a detailed data protection policy for the project must be submitted.An explicit confirmation that the data used in the project is publicly available and can be freely used for the purposes of the project must be submitted.Description of the anonymisation/pseudonymisation techniques that will be implemented must be submitted.A description of the technical and organisational measures that will be implemented to safeguard the rights and freedoms of the data subjects/research participants must be submitted.A description of the security measures that will be implemented to prevent unauthorised access to personal data or the equipment used for processing must be submitted.Regarding the further processing of previously collected personal data, an explicit confirmation that the beneficiary has lawful basis for the data processing and that the appropriate technical and organisational measures are in place to safeguard the rights of the data subjects must be submitted.

H - Requirement No. 2

Copies of opinions/approvals by ethics committees and/or competent authorities for the research with humans must be submitted.

GEN - Requirement No. 5

A report from the Independent Ethics Board must be submitted in month 12.

Report EMT Software release with documentation

The tool will be implemented in a production environment, considering all the EU dataprotection requirements. It will be installed on the required hardware along with the supporting services and solutions and will be delivered to the Platform Management entity. It will entail a web-based interface that will host all visualisation functionalities and will support integration with available data sources and software backend running all the developed prediction and simulation models. To facilitate deployment it will be accompanied by a usage guide explaining the supported operations. An update of the tool will be released on M28

Prototypical implementation of methods to extract frequent patterns from tweets representing migration drivers

It will focus on the scalability aspect of the current pattern mining approaches when analysing huge number of tweets We will take into account algorithms for distributedcomputing using existing platforms such as Hadoop Apache Spark As such deep analysis may differ based on the language used this deliverable will pay special attention to understudied languages It will prototypically implement the methods to extract frequent patterns from tweets representing migration intentions

Project's website and project branding

A dedicated website will be created at the start of the project and will have individual tabs identifying the project partners explaining the aim of the project and introducing its expected outcomes A series of eports generated in the course of the projects implementation to be submitted by all partners will be hosted on the ITFLOWS websiteDigital tools such as interactive data visualisation interfaces hosted on the project website These interfaces will mainly communicate the main research results of WP3 WP4 WP5 and WP6 The information will address both policy makers to better understand the projects research outcomes and to end users of the EMT and social partners to facilitate the understanding of the data behind the EMT and to ensure the inflow of feedback

EMT Training Strategy Report

The training strategy will be formulated in M19 From there training knowledge material will be developed that will educate inform and train the UB group members in how to use and interact with the EMT effectively The training and delivery of this knowledge will be carried out using various communication mediums appropriate for each stakeholder group eg webinars downloadable material workshops online forums video tutorials etc Anonline communityforum will be developed to facilitate engagement amongst a sustainable community of UB members

ORDP

The Open research data ORDP will be a published report for M36 It will list all the publications andor the datasets published in open data The ORD pilot applies primarily to the data needed to validate the results presented in scientific publications Other data will be provided by the beneficiaries on a voluntary basis as stated in their Data Management Plans

Publications

Fundamental Rights Implications of Interconnecting Migration and Policing Databases in the EU

Author(s): Cristina Blasi Casagran
Published in: Human Rights Law Review, Issue 21/2, 2021, Page(s) 433-457, ISSN 1461-7781
Publisher: Oxford University Press
DOI: 10.1093/hrlr/ngaa057

Analyzing social media for measuring public attitudes toward controversies and their driving factors: a case study of migration

Author(s): Yiyi Chen, Harald Sack, Mehwish Alam
Published in: Social Network Analysis and Mining, 2022, ISSN 1869-5469
Publisher: springer
DOI: 10.1007/s13278-022-00915-7

FabSim3: An automation toolkit for verified simulations using high performance computing

Author(s): Derek Groen, Hamid Arabnejad, Diana Suleimenova, Wouter Edeling, Erwan Raffin, Yani Xue, Kevin Bronik, Nicolas Monnier, Peter V. Coveney
Published in: Computer Physics Communications, 2023, ISSN 0010-4655
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.cpc.2022.108596

Facilitating simulation development for global challenge response and anticipation in a timely way

Author(s): Derek Groen, Diana Suleimenova, Alireza Jahani, Yani Xue
Published in: Journal of Computational Science, 2023, ISSN 1877-7503
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.jocs.2023.102107

Embedding Ethical Principles into AI Predictive Tools for Migration Management in Humanitarian Action

Author(s): Andrea Guillén & Emma Teodoro
Published in: Social Sciences, 2023, ISSN 2076-0760
Publisher: MDPI
DOI: 10.3390/socsci12020053

The Role of Emerging Predictive IT Tools in Effective Migration Governance

Author(s): Cristina Blasi Casagran, Colleen Boland, Elena Sánchez-Montijano, Eva Vilà Sanchez
Published in: Politics and Governance, Issue 9/4, 2021, Page(s) 133-145, ISSN 2183-2463
Publisher: Cogitatio Press
DOI: 10.17645/pag.v9i4.4436

European Muslim Youth and Gender (in)Equality Discourse: Towards a More Critical Academic Inquiry

Author(s): Colleen Boland
Published in: Social Sciences, Issue 10/4, 2021, Page(s) 133, ISSN 2076-0760
Publisher: MDPI
DOI: 10.3390/socsci10040133

Developing an Agent-Based Simulation Model to Forecast Flood-Induced Evacuation and Internally Displaced Persons

Author(s): Jahani, A., Jess, S., Groen, D., Suleimenova, D., Xue, Y
Published in: Computational Science, 2023
Publisher: Springer
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-36027-5_43

Camp Location Selection in Humanitarian Logistics: A Multiobjective Simulation Optimization Approach

Author(s): Xue, Y. et al.
Published in: 2022
Publisher: Springer
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-08757-8_42

Predicting international migratory movements using Google searches

Author(s): Marcus H. Böhme, André Gröger & Tobias Heidland
Published in: 2020
Publisher: Observatori Social de “la Caixa”

Temporal Evolution of the Migration-related Topics on Social Media

Author(s): Yiyi Chen, Genet Asefa Gesese, Harald Sack, and Mehwish Alam
Published in: 2021
Publisher: CEUR Workshop Proceedings

National press monitoring using Natural Language Processing as an early warning signal for prediction of asylum applications flows in Europe

Author(s): Iliopoulos, Ilias & Kopalidis, Nikolaos & Stavropoulos, Georgios & Tzovaras, Dimitrios
Published in: 2022
Publisher: 2022 IEEE International Conference on Big Data (Big Data)
DOI: 10.1109/bigdata55660.2022.10020278

Forecasting Bilateral Refugee Flows with High-dimensional Data and Machine Learning Techniques

Author(s): Konstantin Boss, Andre Groeger, Tobias Heidland, Finja Krueger & Conghan Zheng
Published in: BSE Working Papers, 2023
Publisher: BSE

Research on Public Attitudes to Migration: What, Where and by Who?

Author(s): Lenka Dražanová, Jérôme Gonnot, Tobias Heidland and Finja Krüger
Published in: 2021
Publisher: EUI - OPAM

Attitudes toward immigration in Europe: Cross-regional differences.

Author(s): Dražanová, L., and Gonnot, J.
Published in: Open Research Europe, 2023
Publisher: ORE
DOI: 10.12688/openreseurope.15691.1

MigrationsKB: A Knowledge Base of Public Attitudes towards Migrations and their Driving Factors

Author(s): Chen, Yiyi; Sack, Harald; Alam, Mehwish
Published in: Issue 1, 2021
Publisher: Cornell university
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2108.07593

Border Management Systems: How Can They Help Against Pandemics.

Author(s): Stavropoulos, G., Triantafyllou, D., Makri, E., Székely, Z., Tzovaras, D.
Published in: Intelligent Technologies and Applications. INTAP 2020. Communications in Computer and Information Science, vol 1382, 2021, ISBN 978-3-030-71710-0
Publisher: Springer
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-71711-7_27

Markov Aggregation for Speeding Up Agent-Based Movement Simulations

Author(s): Groen D. et al.
Published in: 2023
Publisher: International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems

About Migration Flows and Sentiment Analysis on Twitter Data: Building the Bridge Between Technical and Legal approaches to data protection

Author(s): Gottschalk, T., & Pichierri, F.
Published in: Joint Workshop Language Resources and Evaluation Conference, 2023
Publisher: Joint Workshop Language Resources and Evaluation Conference

MigrAnalytics: Entity-based Analytics of Migration Tweets

Author(s): Mehwish Alam, Genet Asefa Gesese, Zahra Rezaie, Harald Sack
Published in: 2020
Publisher: CEUR Workshop Proceedings

A Novel Migration Simulation and Prediction Tool

Author(s): Stavropoulos, Georgios & Iliopoulos, Ilias & Gevrekis, Nikolaos & Moustakas, Konstantinos & Tzovaras, Dimitrios
Published in: Intelligent Technologies and Applications, 2022, Page(s) 81-92
Publisher: Springer
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-10525-8_7

Moving Towards Europe: Diverse Trajectories and Multidimensional Drivers of Migration across the Mediterranean and the Atlantic

Author(s): Asli Selin Okyay, Luca Barana et Colleen Boland (eds.)
Published in: Global Politics and Security, 2023, ISBN 978-3-03434-639-9
Publisher: Peter Lang

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