Periodic Reporting for period 2 - ITFLOWS (IT tools and methods for managing migration FLOWS)
Reporting period: 2022-03-01 to 2023-09-30
Prediction and management of migration are a major challenge for the EU and also for many stakeholder groups that provide resources and assistance to migrants. Reliable predictions of migrants is crucial for better assistance and for adequate allocation of resources at the EU borders. Yet, to date, there are no accurate large-scale studies that can reliably predict new migrants arriving in Europe.
The purpose of ITFLOWS was to provide accurate predictions and adequate management solutions of migration flows in the EU in the phases of reception, relocation, settlement and integration of migration. These insights are provided by an evidence-based ICT enabled solution -the EUMigraTool (EMT)- and precise models. All solutions have been continually validated by policy makers and practitioners.
The EMT targets first-line-practitioners, second-level reception organisations and municipalities. It aims to provide solutions based on the prediction of migration flows and the identification of risks of tensions between migrants and EU citizens. Also, an in-depth analysis on drivers, patterns and choices of migration as well as public sentiment towards migration lead to the drafting of adequate recommendations and good practices for policy makers, governments and EU institutions.
In particular, the objectives were the following:
-To make accurate models and predictions on migration in the EU;
-To create the EMT for municipalities and civil society organisations;
-To provide policy solutions for the management irregular arrivals and asylum systems in the EU;
-To minimise potential risks of tension and conflict between migrants and EU citizens;
-To provide policy solutions for optimising integration of refugees in the EU.
In conclusion, ITFLOWS has undertaken a crucial mission in addressing the multifaceted challenges of migration management in the EU. The absence of accurate large-scale studies predicting migrant flows has created a significant gap, one that ITFLOWS sought to bridge through the EMT and precise predictive models. By focusing on reception, relocation, settlement, and integration phases, ITFLOWS not only aimed to assist first-line practitioners and civil society organizations through EMT but also provided invaluable insights to policymakers and governments. The project's comprehensive objectives, ranging from accurate prediction models and EMT creation to policy solutions for asylum seekers’ arrivals and integration optimisation, reflect its commitment to enhancing both the accuracy of migration predictions and the effectiveness of management strategies. ITFLOWS stands as a pioneering initiative, offering a robust foundation for evidence-based policymaking, ultimately contributing to more informed, empathetic, and efficient management of migration flows within the EU.
The purpose of ITFLOWS was to provide accurate predictions and adequate management solutions of migration flows in the EU in the phases of reception, relocation, settlement and integration of migration. These insights are provided by an evidence-based ICT enabled solution -the EUMigraTool (EMT)- and precise models. All solutions have been continually validated by policy makers and practitioners.
The EMT targets first-line-practitioners, second-level reception organisations and municipalities. It aims to provide solutions based on the prediction of migration flows and the identification of risks of tensions between migrants and EU citizens. Also, an in-depth analysis on drivers, patterns and choices of migration as well as public sentiment towards migration lead to the drafting of adequate recommendations and good practices for policy makers, governments and EU institutions.
In particular, the objectives were the following:
-To make accurate models and predictions on migration in the EU;
-To create the EMT for municipalities and civil society organisations;
-To provide policy solutions for the management irregular arrivals and asylum systems in the EU;
-To minimise potential risks of tension and conflict between migrants and EU citizens;
-To provide policy solutions for optimising integration of refugees in the EU.
In conclusion, ITFLOWS has undertaken a crucial mission in addressing the multifaceted challenges of migration management in the EU. The absence of accurate large-scale studies predicting migrant flows has created a significant gap, one that ITFLOWS sought to bridge through the EMT and precise predictive models. By focusing on reception, relocation, settlement, and integration phases, ITFLOWS not only aimed to assist first-line practitioners and civil society organizations through EMT but also provided invaluable insights to policymakers and governments. The project's comprehensive objectives, ranging from accurate prediction models and EMT creation to policy solutions for asylum seekers’ arrivals and integration optimisation, reflect its commitment to enhancing both the accuracy of migration predictions and the effectiveness of management strategies. ITFLOWS stands as a pioneering initiative, offering a robust foundation for evidence-based policymaking, ultimately contributing to more informed, empathetic, and efficient management of migration flows within the EU.
The ITFLOWS project has successfully completed all committed work:
a) Deliverables and Milestones: All of them (43 D & 7 M) have been submitted in due part.
b) Main Dissemination and Communication outcomes:
* We organised 6 conferences and 8 workshops, and members of our project participated in more than 25 events (conferences, workshops, seminars, etc.) related to ITFLOWS. Our partners have been involved in different types of publications including books, journal articles, policy papers and conference papers.
* The ITFLOWS website (www.itflows.eu) provides information for creating awareness regarding the project and also offers insights for the field of migration in general.
The EMT has an independent website (www.emt.itflows.eu) which hosts the prediction tool. This site is in permanent review not only by our technical partners, but also by the members of the Users Board.
ITFLOWS social media accounts have been established within relevant professional and mainstream portals like Twitter and LinkedIn. ITFLOWS videos are shared via YouTube, where we have published 17 videos, including an introductory video with subtitles in 4 languages.
* Regarding visual materials, we created 2 infographics and 1 poster. Also, we published a biannual digital newsletter sent to +130 subscribers and to +1700 contacts.
c) Boards: The project, apart from its 14 partners, also included an interdisciplinary and international group of stakeholders, which contribute to optimising the research. They participated and validated the 3 main outcomes of the project: the models, the EMT and the policy recommendations. Those Boards were the following: Users Board, the External Advisory Board, the Independent Ethics Board, the Data Protection Advisor, the Policy Working Group & the Independent Gender Committee.
d) The EMT aims to provide accurate predictions and adequate management solutions for migratory and refugee movements arriving in the EU. The backend of the EMT comprises 2 complementary approaches to simulation and prediction. The first approach is based on agent-based modelling, while the second approach relies on artificial intelligence.
The EMT generates predictions which incorporate algorithms that consider the two key challenges associated with prediction of migration: (a) Adequate selection of relevant data sources, and (b) correct selection of the potential drivers to be monitored and the warning thresholds to be set.
a) Deliverables and Milestones: All of them (43 D & 7 M) have been submitted in due part.
b) Main Dissemination and Communication outcomes:
* We organised 6 conferences and 8 workshops, and members of our project participated in more than 25 events (conferences, workshops, seminars, etc.) related to ITFLOWS. Our partners have been involved in different types of publications including books, journal articles, policy papers and conference papers.
* The ITFLOWS website (www.itflows.eu) provides information for creating awareness regarding the project and also offers insights for the field of migration in general.
The EMT has an independent website (www.emt.itflows.eu) which hosts the prediction tool. This site is in permanent review not only by our technical partners, but also by the members of the Users Board.
ITFLOWS social media accounts have been established within relevant professional and mainstream portals like Twitter and LinkedIn. ITFLOWS videos are shared via YouTube, where we have published 17 videos, including an introductory video with subtitles in 4 languages.
* Regarding visual materials, we created 2 infographics and 1 poster. Also, we published a biannual digital newsletter sent to +130 subscribers and to +1700 contacts.
c) Boards: The project, apart from its 14 partners, also included an interdisciplinary and international group of stakeholders, which contribute to optimising the research. They participated and validated the 3 main outcomes of the project: the models, the EMT and the policy recommendations. Those Boards were the following: Users Board, the External Advisory Board, the Independent Ethics Board, the Data Protection Advisor, the Policy Working Group & the Independent Gender Committee.
d) The EMT aims to provide accurate predictions and adequate management solutions for migratory and refugee movements arriving in the EU. The backend of the EMT comprises 2 complementary approaches to simulation and prediction. The first approach is based on agent-based modelling, while the second approach relies on artificial intelligence.
The EMT generates predictions which incorporate algorithms that consider the two key challenges associated with prediction of migration: (a) Adequate selection of relevant data sources, and (b) correct selection of the potential drivers to be monitored and the warning thresholds to be set.
Results were addressed to 2 main target groups:
a) Solutions for NGOs & Municipalities:
ITFLOWS accomplished 2 objectives: -it validated results and predictions through the EMT and carried out an analysis based on them. This validation of results was completed (D7.5); -it analised the future social impact of the tool, evaluating how the EMT could be expanded to other countries.
b) Solutions for Policy Makers:
ITFLOWS engaged policy makers throughout the lifetime of the Project and some of these policy makers form part of the Policy Working Group.
We organised a conference in June 2022 in order to engage policy makers in the field of migration management In particular, there were 5 workshops held on the following topics: a) Drivers of migration in origin and transit; b) Root causes and factors contributing to possible tensions between migrants and EU citizens; c) Effective relocation policies in light of social and economic realities of the Member States; d) Effective policies for the socio-economic integration of immigrants to the EU; and e) Asylum policy commitments according to human rights.
In order to maximise the impact, we designated a number of participant seats to representatives of NGOs (18) active in the field of migration and asylum management.
Five thematic policy briefs were presented, based on the findings gathered in the respective work packages. Consequently, the titles of the policy briefs (PB) were:
PB1: Multidimensional drivers and fragmented journeys: the challenge for the EU of external partnerships on migration;
PB2: Root causes and factors contributing to possible tensions within the native population in their attitudes towards immigrants/refugees across European countries;
PB3: Effective EU relocation policies in light of their Impacts Granting or penalising intra-EU mobility of asylum seekers and refugees?;
PB4: Effective policies for the socio-economic integration of immigrants to the EU;
PB5: Migration Flow Prediction Tools & Asylum Policy Commitments in Alignment with Human Rights.
In September 2023 we organised a Policy Workshop to debate and receive feedback on the PBs presented. We gathered more than 20 Policy Makers in 4 different panels.
a) Solutions for NGOs & Municipalities:
ITFLOWS accomplished 2 objectives: -it validated results and predictions through the EMT and carried out an analysis based on them. This validation of results was completed (D7.5); -it analised the future social impact of the tool, evaluating how the EMT could be expanded to other countries.
b) Solutions for Policy Makers:
ITFLOWS engaged policy makers throughout the lifetime of the Project and some of these policy makers form part of the Policy Working Group.
We organised a conference in June 2022 in order to engage policy makers in the field of migration management In particular, there were 5 workshops held on the following topics: a) Drivers of migration in origin and transit; b) Root causes and factors contributing to possible tensions between migrants and EU citizens; c) Effective relocation policies in light of social and economic realities of the Member States; d) Effective policies for the socio-economic integration of immigrants to the EU; and e) Asylum policy commitments according to human rights.
In order to maximise the impact, we designated a number of participant seats to representatives of NGOs (18) active in the field of migration and asylum management.
Five thematic policy briefs were presented, based on the findings gathered in the respective work packages. Consequently, the titles of the policy briefs (PB) were:
PB1: Multidimensional drivers and fragmented journeys: the challenge for the EU of external partnerships on migration;
PB2: Root causes and factors contributing to possible tensions within the native population in their attitudes towards immigrants/refugees across European countries;
PB3: Effective EU relocation policies in light of their Impacts Granting or penalising intra-EU mobility of asylum seekers and refugees?;
PB4: Effective policies for the socio-economic integration of immigrants to the EU;
PB5: Migration Flow Prediction Tools & Asylum Policy Commitments in Alignment with Human Rights.
In September 2023 we organised a Policy Workshop to debate and receive feedback on the PBs presented. We gathered more than 20 Policy Makers in 4 different panels.