Quantifying Migration Scenarios for Better Policy

Risultati finali

The first technical webinar MPG M12

Second technical webinar MPG M24

Simulation tool for younger audiences within Population Europes app and school materials MPG M36

Website: Focal point for project outputs

Website Tools to disseminate project outputs (UoS: website launch in M3, updates from M12, as per the Gantt chart, final version of the website M36, with updates continuing beyond the lifetime of the project)

Documentation: Web tools for data and simulations

Technical report Documentation Documentation of the web simulation and visualisation tools

Background paper: Conceptual approaches

Background paper on the conceptual approaches to uncertain migration futures (DUK: M5)

Technical report: Early warnings

Technical report Construction and assessment of an early warning model for European migration with exemplars UoS M30

Technical report: Microsimulation model

D82 Technical report Detailed data sources and model with validation results and sensitivity analysis IIASA M36

Technical report: Estimation methodology

Technical report The estimation methodology and results UoS M22 draft version to be ready by M19 to inform work in WP 8

Technical Report: Simulation of emigration decisions

Technical Report Simulation of the emigration decision process with application to migration between Africa and Europe NIDI M27 first draft in M21 to inform work in WP8

Discussion paper: European migration since 1990

D57 Discussion paper European migration since 1990 drivers and the role of policies DUK M29

Background paper: Climate change and conflict

Background paper Climate change armed conflict and migration PRIO M29 first insights into conflict migration to be delivered by M9 to inform related work in WP9

Discussion paper & policy brief: scenario results

Discussion paper and policy brief Main results of the scenarios IIASA M29

Background paper: Overview of European mobility

D4.2 Background paper: Detailed overview of European mobility in the past 10 years (NIDI: M16)

Background paper: The role of state and policies

Background paper The role of state and state policies in alternative European migration scenarios DUK and PRIO M20 draft version to be ready by M18 to inform work in WPs 2 and 4

Policy Brief: Output from 1st policy expert meeting

Policy brief: Outcomes of the first high-level policy expert meeting (MPG: M12)

Policy Brief: Pull factors of EU migration

Policy Brief The pull factors of EU migration UoS M36

Background paper: Insights on determinants

D2.2 Background paper: Insights on determinants of migration in diverse contexts (PRIO: M12; draft version to be delivered by M9, to inform related work in Task 2.3 and WP3)

Technical report: Uncertainty in scenarios

Technical report Assessing the uncertainty of migration forecasts and scenarios for short mid and longterm horizons UoS M20

Discussion paper: Report on scenarios

Discussion paper Possible probable and desirable migration scenarios and policy innovations needed to go from probable to desirable scenarios NIDI M24

Background paper: Emigration decision process

Background paper The emigration decision process foundations for modelling NIDI M18

Technical report: User guide to scenarios

Technical report User guide to customized scenarios IIASA M35

Background paper: Analysing uncertainty

Background paper: Conceptualisation and analysis of migration uncertainty (UoS: M11)

Background paper: Cognitive science and decisions

Background paper Cognitive and behavioural science approaches in modelling migration decisions DUK M16

Discussion paper: Impact of attitudes to migration

Discussion paper The impact of antiimmigration attitudes on migration within the EUUoS M20

Background paper: Expert opinion on migration data

D6.1 Background paper: Expert opinion on European migration data (UiO: M12)

Policy Brief: Output from 2nd policy expert meeting

Policy brief Outcomes of the second highlevel policy expert meeting MPG M24

Discussion paper: Pull factors of EU migration

D35 Discussion paper The economic and noneconomic pull factors of migration in the EU UoS M35

Discussion paper: Onward and transit migrations

D43 Discussion papers Analyses of onward and transit migration in countries where data are available and based on this estimates for other European countries NIDI M26

Background paper: Migration theory and implications

Background paper: Migration theory and empirical implications (DUK and PRIO: M9)

Discussion paper: Output from stakeholder event

Discussion paper Outcome of the stakeholder event

Background paper: Migration flows and stocks

D5.2 Background paper: European migration flows and stocks: New evidence on changing geographies and temporalities (DUK: M9)

Background paper: Determinants of conflict-related migration

An additional background paper on the metaanalysis of determinants of conflictrelatedmigration supplementing and expanding on D26 summarizing and discussing the insights and some of the knowledge gaps and potential for improving work in this area

Background paper: European migration data quality

Background paper Quality assessment of European migration data NIDI M14

Discussion paper: Role of uncertainty in policy

D3.2 Discussion paper: The role of uncertainty in policy on migration to the UK and the EU (UoS: M12)

Discussion paper: Scenarios with uncertainty

Discussion paper European migration scenarios with probabilistic uncertainty assessment UoS M35

Background paper: Surveys on migration aspirations

D2.1 Background paper: Survey instruments for measuring migration aspirations (PRIO: M6)

Background paper: Scenario literature review

Systematic literature overview of scenarios and set of experimental design (vignette study) underlying the qualitative story lines (NIDI: M6)

Background paper: Political and policy implications

Background paper The political implications of uncertain migration outcomes on European migration policymaking DUK M26

Discussion paper: Effects of welfare state regime

Discussion paper Modelling and estimating the effects of the welfare state on different types of migration taking into account the destination dependence UoS M32

Background paper: Determinants of aspirations

Background paper Determinants of migration aspirations PRIO M29

Background paper: European migration policy-mix

D55 Background paper The evolution of European migration policymix since 1990 DUK M19 draft version to be ready by M18 to inform work in WP10

Background paper: Expansion of the European Labour Market

An auxiliary background paper providing information on the successive changes to the composition of the european common labour market aimed both to aid modelling and to offer standalone reference for relevant reasearch

Programme code: Microsimulation model

Microsimulation projection model IIASA M24

Pubblicazioni

Surveys on migration aspirations, plans and intentions: a comprehensive overview

Autori: Mathilde Bålsrud Mjelva; Jørgen Carling
Pubblicato in: Open Research Europe, Numero 3-145, 2023, Pagina/e V1 [Peer review: 1 Approved], ISSN 2732-5121
Editore: F1000 on behalf of the European Commission
DOI: 10.12688/openreseurope.15800.1

Black swans and grey rhinos: Migration policy under uncertainty.

Autori: Jakub Bijak; Mathias Czaika
Pubblicato in: Migration Policy Practice, Numero X(4), 2020, Pagina/e 14-20, ISSN 2223-5248
Editore: IOM
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.10074374

New perspectives for migration foresight and preparedness: Insights from the QuantMig Project

Autori: Jakub Bijak; Mathias Czaika; Michaela Potančoková; Daniela Vono de Vilhena; the QuantMig team
Pubblicato in: Migration Policy Practice, Numero XIII(1), 2024, Pagina/e 34-40, ISSN 2223-5248
Editore: IOM International Organization for Migration

European migration governance in the context of uncertainty

Autori: Mathias Czaika, Heidrun Bohnet, Federica Zardo, Jakub Bijak
Pubblicato in: International Migration, Numero Early view, 2024, ISSN 0020-7985
Editore: Blackwell Publishing Inc.
DOI: 10.1111/imig.13308

Experts’ assessments of migration scenarios between the Middle East & North Africa and Europe

Autori: Michaël Boissonneault, Rafael Costa
Pubblicato in: Scientific Data, Numero 10(2), 2023, Pagina/e 640, ISSN 2052-4463
Editore: Springer Nature Limited
DOI: 10.1038/s41597-023-02532-1

Exploring Migration Determinants: a Meta-Analysis of Migration Drivers and Estimates

Autori: Akira Soto Nishimura, Mathias Czaika
Pubblicato in: Journal of International Migration and Integration, Numero 25, 2024, Pagina/e 621-643, ISSN 1488-3473
Editore: Prairie Centre of Excellence for Research on Immigration and Integration
DOI: 10.1007/s12134-023-01091-z

Expecting Brexit and UK migration: Should I go?

Autori: Valentina Di Iasio; Jackline Wahba
Pubblicato in: European Economic Review, Numero 157(1), 2023, Pagina/e 104484, ISSN 0014-2921
Editore: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104484

The Determinants of Refugees’ Destinations: Where do refugees locate within the EU?

Autori: Valentina Di Iasio; Jackline Wahba
Pubblicato in: World Development, Numero 177, 2024, Pagina/e 106533, ISSN 0305-750X
Editore: Pergamon Press Ltd.
DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106533

Exploring Europe’s external migration policy mix: on the interactions of visa, readmission, and resettlement policies

Autori: Mathias Czaika; Marta Bivand Erdal; Cathrine Talleraas
Pubblicato in: Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, Numero 49(12), 2023, Pagina/e 3140-3161, ISSN 1369-183X
Editore: Carfax Publishing Ltd.
DOI: 10.1080/1369183x.2023.2198363

A timeline of freedom of movement in the European Economic Area

Autori: Emily Barker
Pubblicato in: Open Research Europe, Numero 2(133), 2022, ISSN 2732-5121
Editore: F1000 Research Limited on behalf of the European Commission

Quantifying the impact of COVID-19 on immigration in receiving high-income countries

Autori: Miguel González-Leonardo; Michaela Potančoková; Dilek Yildiz; Francisco Rowe
Pubblicato in: PLoS ONE, Numero 18(1), 2023, Pagina/e e0280324, ISSN 1932-6203
Editore: Public Library of Science
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0280324

Migration Decision-Making and Its Key Dimensions

Autori: Mathias Czaika; Jakub Bijak; Toby Prike
Pubblicato in: The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, Numero 697(1), 2022, Pagina/e 15-31, ISSN 0002-7162
Editore: SAGE Publications
DOI: 10.1177/00027162211052233

Toward an Early Warning System for Monitoring Asylum-Related Migration Flows in Europe

Autori: Joanna Napierała; Jason Hilton; Jonathan J. Forster; Marcello Carammia; Jakub Bijak
Pubblicato in: International Migration Review, Numero 56(1), 2022, Pagina/e 33-62, ISSN 0197-9183
Editore: Center for Migration Studies
DOI: 10.1177/01979183211035736

theory and practice

Autori: Fotios Petropoulos; Daniele Apiletti; Vassilios Assimakopoulos; Mohamed Zied Babai; Devon K. Barrow; Souhaib Ben Taieb; Christoph Bergmeir; Ricardo J. Bessa; Jakub Bijak; John E. Boylan; Jethro Browell; Claudio Carnevale; Jennifer L. Castle; Pasquale Cirillo; Michael P. Clements; Clara Cordeiro; Fernando Luiz Cyrino Oliveira; Shari De Baets; Alexander Dokumentov; Joanne Ellison; Piotr Fiszeder; Ph
Pubblicato in: International Journal of Forecasting, Numero 38(3), 2022, Pagina/e 705-871, ISSN 0169-2070
Editore: Elsevier BV

Demographic and labor force impacts of future immigration flows into Europe: Does an immigrant’s region of origin matter?

Autori: Guillaume Marois; Michaela Potančoková; Miguel González-Leonardo
Pubblicato in: Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Numero 10(1), 2023, Pagina/e 957, ISSN 2662-9992
Editore: Nature Portfolio
DOI: 10.1057/s41599-023-02482-4

Categorical and spatial interlinkages within the European migration policy mix

Autori: Mathias Czaika; Heidrun Bohnet; Federica Zardo
Pubblicato in: European Union Politics, Numero OnlineFirst, 2023, ISSN 1465-1165
Editore: SAGE Publications
DOI: 10.1177/14651165231209941

Five Facts Everybody Should Know Before Discussing Future Migration Trends.

Autori: Czaika M and Bijak J
Pubblicato in: Population Europe Policy Insight, 2020
Editore: Population Europe

Hotels and employment aren’t major ‘pull factors’ for refugees – here’s what really draws people to move

Autori: Jackline Wahba; Valentina Di Iasio
Pubblicato in: The Conversation, Numero 25 August 2023, 2023, ISSN 2201-5639
Editore: The Conversation Trust (UK) Ltd.

Why Should We Care About Uncertainty in Migration Flows? Reasons and Challenges from an Economics Perspective

Autori: Emily Barker; Jakub Bijak; Valentina Di Iasio; Jackline Wahba
Pubblicato in: Population and Policy Brief, Numero 35, 2022, ISSN 2512-6164
Editore: Population Europe

Asylum seekers’ choice of country is mostly driven by personal networks, not economy

Autori: Valentina Di Iasio; Jackline Wahba
Pubblicato in: Population Europe Policy Insight, 2022
Editore: Population Europe

Seeking asylum in Europe: Where do people go and why?

Autori: Valentina Di Iasio; Jackline Wahba
Pubblicato in: Centre for Population Change Policy Briefing, Numero 69, 2023
Editore: Centre for Population Change

White Paper on Migration Uncertainty: Towards Foresight and Preparedness

Autori: Jakub Bijak; Michaela Potančoková; Daniela Vono de Vilhena; The QuantMig Team
Pubblicato in: Population Europe Discussion Paper, Numero 19, 2023, ISSN 2512-6172
Editore: Population Europe

How Can Europe Better Prepare for Future Migration Movements? Understanding and Addressing the Root Causes of Displacements.

Autori: Jakub Bijak; Mathias Czaika; Daniela Vono de Vilhena
Pubblicato in: Population and Policy Brief, Numero 26, 2020, ISSN 2512-6164
Editore: Population Europe

Attracting Skills and Talent to the EU. What should we focus on?

Autori: Silke Anger; Jakub Bijak; Peter Bosch; Mathias Czaika; David de Groot; María Miyar Busto; Jackline Wahba
Pubblicato in: Population and Policy Brief, Numero 37, 2022, ISSN 2512-6164
Editore: Population Europe

Uncertainty in Future Migration Flows: Where Does It Come From?

Autori: Daniela Vono de Vilhena; Jakub Bijak
Pubblicato in: Population and Policy Brief, Numero 29, 2021, ISSN 2512-6164
Editore: Population Europe

As Europe builds resilient labour markets, migration can help – but will not be enough

Autori: Emily Barker; Jakub Bijak
Pubblicato in: Population Europe Policy Insight, 2023
Editore: Population Europe

High-Migration Events and Future Labour Force in Europe

Autori: Michaela Potančoková; Guillaume Marois; Jakub Bijak
Pubblicato in: Population and Policy Brief, Numero 39, 2023, ISSN 2512-6164
Editore: Population Europe

Migration Uncertainty: Feature, not a Bug

Autori: Jakub Bijak
Pubblicato in: Population Europe Policy Insight, 2021
Editore: Population Europe

Strengthening evidence-informed policymaking on migration

Autori: Jakub Bijak; Birte Fähnrich; Luc Leboeuf; Daniela Vono de Vilhena
Pubblicato in: Population and Policy Brief, Numero 32, 2021, ISSN 2512-6164
Editore: Population Europe

Can the EU Attract Skills and Talent?

Autori: Jackline Wahba
Pubblicato in: Population Europe Policy Insight, 2022
Editore: Population Europe

Can one migration model fit all?

Autori: Emily Barker; Jakub Bijak
Pubblicato in: Population Europe Policy Insight, 2021
Editore: Population Europe

Navigating uncertainty: Understanding the impact of Brexit on EU migration to the UK

Autori: Valentina Di Iasio; Jackline Wahba
Pubblicato in: Centre for Population Change Policy Briefing, Numero 71, 2023
Editore: Centre for Population Change

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