Periodic Reporting for period 3 - NEGEM (Quantifying and Deploying Responsible Negative Emissions in Climate Resilient Pathways)
Período documentado: 2022-12-01 hasta 2024-05-31
The IPCC climate change mitigation scenarios (IPCC AR6, WG3) show that to reach the targets of the Paris Agreement to mitigate global warming to 1.5-2 °C, global carbon neutrality must be reached around mid-century, followed by net-negative emissions. Achieving this target requires rapid and drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in all emitting sectors, as well as increase of carbon sinks in the land use sector. Negative emission technologies and practices (NETPs) will be needed as a supplementary measure to enable carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere. However, the realistic potential of NETPs in not well known.
Policies and regulations for NETPs are currently discussed and taking shape globally and in the European Union (EU). Thus, there is a need for a clear vision and guidance on how and to what extent responsible NETPs can supplement drastic emission reductions. The main objective of the NEGEM project was to understand the realistic potential for NETPs, when considering their technical, environmental, socio-political, and commercial constraints and co-benefits. In addition, NEGEM studied how to formulate policies, governance structures, and commercialization methods to optimise the deployment of NETPs within the overall climate architecture.
Policies and regulations for NETPs are currently discussed and taking shape globally and in the European Union (EU). Thus, there is a need for a clear vision and guidance on how and to what extent responsible NETPs can supplement drastic emission reductions. The main objective of the NEGEM project was to understand the realistic potential for NETPs, when considering their technical, environmental, socio-political, and commercial constraints and co-benefits. In addition, NEGEM studied how to formulate policies, governance structures, and commercialization methods to optimise the deployment of NETPs within the overall climate architecture.
NEGEM has produced altogether 69 deliverables and around 20 scientific articles in high level journals, and around 10 more articles are expected.
NEGEM has produced important new information on the environmental and health implications of NETPs by life cycle assessment (LCA). The results show that none of the CDR methods comes without side-effects and trade-offs, and to balance the environmental and health impacts a portfolio of NETPs is needed (Cobo et al. 2023, D3.8). A “supply-driven” assessment of the global BECCS and reforestation potentials was done by biosphere model LPJmL5 (D3.2 3.6 3.7) by restricting further transgression of terrestrial planetary boundaries. Significant limitations to BECCS and reforestation CDR potentials on non-agricultural land were recognized, leading to the conclusion that to free land area for CDR, significant transformations of the agricultural sector would be needed, e.g. as a result of dietary changes.
A large portfolio of NETPs was applied in the scenario modelling by TIMES-VTT and Pan European-TIMES towards 1.5°C mitigation targets. The results indicated that a full portfolio of NETPs came into use. The technical CDR solutions such as BECCS and DACCS scaled up from 2030-2040’s, their highest level of deployment likely taking place in the 2060-2070’s (D8.2). However, there are several uncertainties related to the NETPs, regarding technical parameters (e.g. CO2 removal rates), and the permanence of forestation-based C storages, which should be further assessed.
NEGEM found that the social license to operate for different CDR methods varied across sectors and geographies (D5.1). Most companies favored technological solutions such as BECCS and DACCS, whereas NGOs more commonly favored nature-based solutions. However, interaction between different stakeholders had an effect in changing perceptions. (D5.3) The results revealed that both groups prioritized permanence of CO2 removal as the paramount dimension (D 5.6).
NEGEM studied the market-based, public procurement, and fiscal policy mechanisms for CDR (Hickey et al. 2023). The current mechanisms are severely under-resourced to enable a CDR portfolio that could support achievement of net zero targets. Dynamic risk and liability mechanisms can offer an effective way to facilitate the liability of stored carbon and transition to lower risk storage over time but need to be robustly designed and implemented (D2.4).
To be able to invest in CDR, stakeholders need clear, long-term regulation and greater certainty. (D5.2) Thus, there is an urgent need for clear and coherent CDR definitions (see D6.2) policy frameworks, and accounting rules internationally and in the EU (D6.1). No comprehensive accounting framework for CDR exists, but relevant parts in UNFCCC and EU frameworks were identified (D6.3). CDR systems can affect land use, energy systems, the rights of local communities, and human health (D6.1). Thus, comprehensive governance frameworks which recognize specific features of different CDR methods are needed. Responsible effort sharing globally and in the EU is needed (D4.3).
NEGEM results were disseminated through deliverables, scientific articles, project website, LinkedIn profile, partners’ presentations in several conferences, seminars and workshops, and through events organized during the project (over 16 NEGEM workshops). The final event of the project “Visions and Pathways for Carbon Dioxide Removal in the EU” was organised in April 2024 in Brussels, together with LANDMARC and OceanNETs projects. NEGEM results have been directly communicated to the European Commission (e.g. DGClima), ESABCC, national scientific advisory boards, and national ministries. The results have been exploited by the EC CDR Expert Group. The results will be further exploited for briefing policy makers in EU’s 2040 climate target setting, as well as in National level policy planning. The scientific exploitation is guaranteed by further scientific papers. The results will be fed to the IPCC processes for CDR special report and AR7. Results have also been communicated to the private sector, through project's industrial partners and stakeholders.
NEGEM has produced important new information on the environmental and health implications of NETPs by life cycle assessment (LCA). The results show that none of the CDR methods comes without side-effects and trade-offs, and to balance the environmental and health impacts a portfolio of NETPs is needed (Cobo et al. 2023, D3.8). A “supply-driven” assessment of the global BECCS and reforestation potentials was done by biosphere model LPJmL5 (D3.2 3.6 3.7) by restricting further transgression of terrestrial planetary boundaries. Significant limitations to BECCS and reforestation CDR potentials on non-agricultural land were recognized, leading to the conclusion that to free land area for CDR, significant transformations of the agricultural sector would be needed, e.g. as a result of dietary changes.
A large portfolio of NETPs was applied in the scenario modelling by TIMES-VTT and Pan European-TIMES towards 1.5°C mitigation targets. The results indicated that a full portfolio of NETPs came into use. The technical CDR solutions such as BECCS and DACCS scaled up from 2030-2040’s, their highest level of deployment likely taking place in the 2060-2070’s (D8.2). However, there are several uncertainties related to the NETPs, regarding technical parameters (e.g. CO2 removal rates), and the permanence of forestation-based C storages, which should be further assessed.
NEGEM found that the social license to operate for different CDR methods varied across sectors and geographies (D5.1). Most companies favored technological solutions such as BECCS and DACCS, whereas NGOs more commonly favored nature-based solutions. However, interaction between different stakeholders had an effect in changing perceptions. (D5.3) The results revealed that both groups prioritized permanence of CO2 removal as the paramount dimension (D 5.6).
NEGEM studied the market-based, public procurement, and fiscal policy mechanisms for CDR (Hickey et al. 2023). The current mechanisms are severely under-resourced to enable a CDR portfolio that could support achievement of net zero targets. Dynamic risk and liability mechanisms can offer an effective way to facilitate the liability of stored carbon and transition to lower risk storage over time but need to be robustly designed and implemented (D2.4).
To be able to invest in CDR, stakeholders need clear, long-term regulation and greater certainty. (D5.2) Thus, there is an urgent need for clear and coherent CDR definitions (see D6.2) policy frameworks, and accounting rules internationally and in the EU (D6.1). No comprehensive accounting framework for CDR exists, but relevant parts in UNFCCC and EU frameworks were identified (D6.3). CDR systems can affect land use, energy systems, the rights of local communities, and human health (D6.1). Thus, comprehensive governance frameworks which recognize specific features of different CDR methods are needed. Responsible effort sharing globally and in the EU is needed (D4.3).
NEGEM results were disseminated through deliverables, scientific articles, project website, LinkedIn profile, partners’ presentations in several conferences, seminars and workshops, and through events organized during the project (over 16 NEGEM workshops). The final event of the project “Visions and Pathways for Carbon Dioxide Removal in the EU” was organised in April 2024 in Brussels, together with LANDMARC and OceanNETs projects. NEGEM results have been directly communicated to the European Commission (e.g. DGClima), ESABCC, national scientific advisory boards, and national ministries. The results have been exploited by the EC CDR Expert Group. The results will be further exploited for briefing policy makers in EU’s 2040 climate target setting, as well as in National level policy planning. The scientific exploitation is guaranteed by further scientific papers. The results will be fed to the IPCC processes for CDR special report and AR7. Results have also been communicated to the private sector, through project's industrial partners and stakeholders.
During the four years of research work NEGEM has taken several important steps beyond the state of the art:
- NEGEM accomplished a comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA) study of altogether 36 different CDR configurations (D3.8).
- BECCS and reforestation potentials constrained by various Planetary Boundaries studied with the biosphere model LPJmL5-NEGEM (3.2).
- A large portfolio of NETPs was applied in IAM-type modelling by TIMES-VTT model for global 1.5C mitigation scenarios (D8.2).
- Socio-economic implications of CDR methods, such as jobs creation in the EU, were studied with MONET-JEDI model (D7.4).
- Wide stakeholder surveys and a public survey (with over 6000 respondents from 6 different countries) were accomplished during the fall 2023 (D5.5,5.6).
- A first in-depth academic analysis of the European Commission’s Net Zero Industry Act (NZIA) Article 18 mechanism. The policy was termed as an Injection Capacity Obligation (ICO), and was seen as the potential mandate-based policy that may give rise to for the commercialisation of BECCS and DACCS. (D2.5)
- In its Science-Policy Brief, final NEGEM medium to long-term vision (D8.3) and Carbon Negative Handbook (D6.4) NEGEM provided several policy recommendations. Furthermore, the Carbon negative handbook provided a glossary on CDR related terms and explanation on key concepts, as well as 6 factsheets on various NETPs. A key policy recommendation throughout the project was that in the short- to medium-term separate targets and governance frameworks for emission reductions and CDR are required to ensure that net-emissions are more quickly reduced (Reiner et al, 2021).
- NEGEM accomplished a comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA) study of altogether 36 different CDR configurations (D3.8).
- BECCS and reforestation potentials constrained by various Planetary Boundaries studied with the biosphere model LPJmL5-NEGEM (3.2).
- A large portfolio of NETPs was applied in IAM-type modelling by TIMES-VTT model for global 1.5C mitigation scenarios (D8.2).
- Socio-economic implications of CDR methods, such as jobs creation in the EU, were studied with MONET-JEDI model (D7.4).
- Wide stakeholder surveys and a public survey (with over 6000 respondents from 6 different countries) were accomplished during the fall 2023 (D5.5,5.6).
- A first in-depth academic analysis of the European Commission’s Net Zero Industry Act (NZIA) Article 18 mechanism. The policy was termed as an Injection Capacity Obligation (ICO), and was seen as the potential mandate-based policy that may give rise to for the commercialisation of BECCS and DACCS. (D2.5)
- In its Science-Policy Brief, final NEGEM medium to long-term vision (D8.3) and Carbon Negative Handbook (D6.4) NEGEM provided several policy recommendations. Furthermore, the Carbon negative handbook provided a glossary on CDR related terms and explanation on key concepts, as well as 6 factsheets on various NETPs. A key policy recommendation throughout the project was that in the short- to medium-term separate targets and governance frameworks for emission reductions and CDR are required to ensure that net-emissions are more quickly reduced (Reiner et al, 2021).