The Added Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Integrated Risk Management Decisions

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The final conference will showcase SECLIFIRM output and provide a link with possible upcoming followup projects Invitation to attend will be sent to a wide range of stakeholders who may be requested to take an active role in conference sessions eg panel sessions

First stakeholder engagement and dissemination report – includes Stakeholder workshop report and Dissemination, Web Portal and communication material

Document to report on the first two stakeholder workshops (scheduled M4 and M12) organised in order to obtain input on the SECLI-FIRM specifications and requirements. The most effective communication material for SECLI-FIRM will be prepared. It is expected that material will include professionally developed: SECLI-FIRM branding, a regularly updated web site, project banner, workshop flyers, SECLI-FIRM poster and ‘pitch’ presentation.

Report on the techniques to obtain optimized probability forecasts for the high-risk extreme events of relevance for each case study application

The predictability of highrisk extreme climate events of relevance for the case studies identified by the industrial partners in WP1 will be evaluated The joint distribution of the observed and predicted occurrence of the extreme events from available records will be exploited to better address conditional probability of the extreme events to occur

Communication and Dissemination Plan

The Communication and Dissemination Plan (CDP) will be delivered at the early stage of the project (M6) after discussing its contents during the kick-off meeting. Furthermore, the CDP will briefly present some recommendations on communication activities to be done after the end of the project.

Report on the suite of statistical downscaling techniques developed in view of the need of the case study applications

The most appropriate downupscaling approach will be identified in order to have a welldefined approach for selecting at the same time the most appropriate updown scaling with the higher seasonal forecast skill

Communication and Dissemination Plan update (2)

Update to the CDP, D5.3. This report will account for the intervening, since the updated D5.7, communications and dissemination activities via stakeholder workshops, email, one-to-one interactions, social media, etc..

Report on economic assessment methods for value-add associated with decision-support tools/systems

Summary of the available economic assessment methods concerning seasonal forecast value, also drawing on experience from beyond this immediate application

Report on cooperation activities and exploited synergies

Coordination and exploration of synergies between projects funded under the same or similar call is crucial to spend resources efficiently and reach the best possible impact Report on coordination and creation of synergies with the EUprojects related to Climate Services funded under the same and similar topics

Third stakeholder engagement and dissemination report - includes Stakeholder workshop report and Dissemination, Web Portal and communication material

Document to report on the two stakeholder workshops scheduled M29 and M39 and organised in order to obtain input on the SECLIFIRM specifications and requirements The most effective communication material for SECLIFIRM will be prepared It is expected that material will include professionally developed SECLIFIRM branding a regularly updated web site project banner workshop flyers SECLIFIRM poster and pitch presentation

Kick-off meeting report

Reporting the results of the kick-off meeting, to be attended by all partners and possibly co-designers

Second stakeholder engagement and dissemination report – includes Stakeholder workshop report and Dissemination, Web Portal and communication material

Document to report on the third stakeholder workshop (scheduled M20) organised in order to obtain input on the SECLI-FIRM specifications and requirements. The most effective communication material for SECLI-FIRM will be prepared. It is expected that material will include professionally developed: SECLI-FIRM branding, a regularly updated web site, project banner, workshop flyers, SECLI-FIRM poster and ‘pitch’ presentation.

Report on the capability of the very latest advancements in the prediction systems from the ongoing international efforts to overcome limitations in forecasting the key predictands, for each case study

A link will be established with ongoing and future international modelling efforts trying to improve the available seasonal prediction systems (e.g. H2020 projects, WCPR Grand Challenge on near-term Climate Prediction). This will be achieved by participating in international meetings/conferences and by inviting coordinators of related international programmes/projects to attend SECLI-FIRM project meetings (e.g. joint WP1, WP2 and WP3 workshops).

Report on cross-sectoral learning from the SECLI-FIRM project

Learnings from SECLIFIRM case studies and investigation on how the findings can be exploited in related sectors such as water and agriculture

Communication and Dissemination Plan update

Update to the CDP, D5.3. This report will account for the intervening, since D5.3, communications and dissemination activities via stakeholder workshops, email, one-to-one interactions, social media, etc..

Report on the role of large-scale climate phenomena and teleconnections on the predictability of the key predictands for the case study applications

Selection of best forecasts from the MultiModel dataset to maximize the performance for key predictands climate variables considered at the time and space scales proper for each application and following the needs and recommendations by stakeholders provided in WP1 The role of major phenomena such as the NAO Artic Oscillation ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole on the key predictands will be identified

Report on the predictability of weather patterns and regimes of relevance for the case study applications

An assessment of the predictability of weather patterns will be performed based on the large-scale phenomena to which they may be associated. The more appropriate methodology will be established in order to translate the circulation pattern/regimes into forecast metrics relevant to the case-study following the requirements by stakeholders provided in WP1.

Data Management Plan final

This deliverable will review and finalise the DMP D64 and later updates accounting for feedback on use of SECLIFIRM data

Data Management Plan update (2)

This deliverable will review and update the DMP (D6.4), and later updates, accounting for feedback on use of SECLI-FIRM data.

Data Management Plan update

This deliverable will review and update the DMP (D6.4), accounting for feedback on use of SECLI-FIRM data.

Data Management Plan

It will describe the data management life cycle for the data to be collected, processed and/or generated by the project. It will be used as a standard data guideline for the project consortium to ensure interoperability and sharing for public dataset generated by the project.

Development, testing and documentation of demonstration of use of pilot applications

Delivery of nonoperational service To use data store created in WP2 to create baseline processed data Each codesigner pair will use this to produce and deliver nonoperational near realtime products Each codesigner pair to do this independently except where useful synergies will be identified Iterate design so that they can be most effectively used by organisations

Project website

The official website delivered in the first month of the project, will provide a high-level description of the project and its objectives aimed at the general public and users.

Publications

Verification and Bias Adjustment of ECMWF SEAS5 Seasonal Forecasts over Europe for Climate Service Applications

Auteurs: Alice Crespi 1,*ORCID,Marcello Petitta 1,2ORCID,Paola Marson 3,Christian Viel 3ORCID andLucas Grigis 3
Publié dans: Seasonal Forecasting Climate Services for the Energy Industry, 2021, ISSN 2225-1154
Éditeur: MDPI
DOI: 10.3390/cli9120181

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