Description du projet
La valeur ajoutée des prévisions climatiques saisonnières pour les décisions de gestion intégrée des risques
L’objectif principal du projet SECLI-FIRM, financé par l’UE, est de démontrer comment l’utilisation de prévisions climatiques améliorées peut contribuer à réduire les risques et les coûts des processus décisionnels, en évaluant l’impact des informations climatiques sur la planification opérationnelle et la gestion de portefeuille. Le projet élaborera un ensemble de données complet, conçu à cet effet, avec plus de dix systèmes indépendants de prévisions saisonnières réunis sur une plateforme unique. L’équipe entend également faire progresser les outils de visualisation en ligne afin d’essayer de caractériser les exigences des utilisateurs finaux et les problèmes de prise de décision qui en découlent pour un large éventail de parties prenantes. Les résultats permettront à terme d’optimiser les performances des prévisions climatiques, de quantifier leur valeur ajoutée dans la prise de décision et d’intégrer les prévisions saisonnières aux processus décisionnels de l’industrie.
Objectif
The central objective of SECLI-FIRM is to demonstrate how the use of improved climate forecasts, out to several months ahead, can add practical and economic value to decision-making processes and outcomes, primarily in the energy sector, but also in the water sector. Specifically for the energy sector, SECLI-CLIM will assess the impact on operational planning and portfolio management, such as hedging and asset optimization, thus enabling quantification of the value-add provided by seasonal forecasts which have been calibrated, evaluated and tailored for each specific application. Improvements in management decisions will ultimately lead to an improved supply-demand balance and therefore to a more efficient energy system, particularly with respect to renewable energy, with corresponding benefits for climate change mitigation.
A simple, but effective, methodology will be used to assess value added. A control case will only utilise climatological conditions based on historical averaged values – currently the most common approach – while a test case will also consider individually optimised and tailored state-of-the-art probabilistic seasonal forecasts. This will be done for nine case studies for Europe and South America: recent seasons with anomalous/extreme climate conditions leading to problematic and quantifiable impacts for the energy and/or water industry. Crucially for success, the case studies will be co-designed by industrial and research partners.
These case studies will provide the basis for developing pilot climate services for a number of specific applications, allowing evaluation of the added value of near real-time information for decision making. Thus SECLI-FIRM will promote research advances in the optimization of seasonal forecasts for specific applications (e.g. by evaluating both local processes and large-scale teleconnections), as well as promoting the uptake of seasonal forecasts by industry and hence expansion of the climate services market.
Champ scientifique
- social sciencessociologygovernancecrisis management
- engineering and technologyenvironmental engineeringenergy and fuelsrenewable energyhydroelectricity
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesclimatologyclimatic changes
- engineering and technologyenvironmental engineeringnatural resources managementwater management
Programme(s)
Régime de financement
RIA - Research and Innovation actionCoordinateur
NR4 7TJ Norwich
Royaume-Uni