Sub-seasonal to Seasonal climate forecasting for Energy

Leistungen

Benchmarking skill assessment of current sub-seasonal and seasonal forecast systems for the users’ selected case studies

Provide a first vision of the potential application of S2S climate predictions for decision-making by using current sub-seasonal and seasonal forecast systems for the users’ selected case studies.

Documentary on the DST

Description of the Documentary that explains the motivation, purpose and market potential of the DST.

Assessment of policies and recommendations

Assessment of possible policy interventions to enhance the economic value of S2S predictions.

User needs and decision-making processes that can benefit from S2S forecasts

Revision of user needs and current practices that can benefit from S2S forecast.

Summary report on the impact of dissemination, communication and user engagement activities

Report on the impact of dissemination, communication and user engagement activities.

Impact and assessment of weather regimes and relevant modes of variability on the energy sector

Assessment of the ability of S2S systems to simulate and predict the weather regimes and relevant modes of variability focussing on impacts on the energy sector.

Final Communication, Dissemination and User Engagement Plan (CDUEP).

Final version of the Communication, Dissemination and User Engagement Plan (CDUEP).

Validation of observational datasets and recommendations to energy users on the choice of observational/reanalysis products

Assessment of available datasets building a knowledge-base about their characteristics and limitations for energy related proposes.

Economic gains from using S2S forecasts in energy producers’ decision-making by analysing relevant case studies

Economic assessment of the value of S2S forecast in energy-decision making by analysing relevant case studies.

Final Stakeholder Event

Summary and analysis of the event.

Communication, Dissemination and User Engagement Plan (CDUEP)

Plan of the Communication, Dissemination and User Engagement activities.

Update of Communication, Dissemination and User Engagement Plan (CDUEP)

Update of Communication, Dissemination and User Engagement Plan (CDUEP) which include the outcomes achived during the project.

Assessment of conditional predictability and use weather regimes to construct energy-relevant variables

Analysis of the utilization of conditional predictability and the use weather regimes to construct energy-relevant variables.

Weather regimes and modes of variability in Europe and their impact on the essential climate variables

Assessment of the main climatic drivers (weather regimes and the main modes of variability) and their impact on the essential climate variables.

Event in Southern/Central Europe.

Summary and analysis of the event.

Skill assessment and comparison of methods for sub-seasonal and seasonal forecast systems for the energy sector

Assessment of the forecast capabilities of current S2S systems to predict the essential climate variables that drive the energy system and analysis of bias adjustment, statistical downscaling and model combination techniques to maximize the use of S2S predictions.

Event in Northern Europe

Summary and analysis of the event.

Data Management Plan (DMP) project

Final update of the of the requirements of the input data files and the hardware to store and preserve the data.

Data Management Plan (DMP) presentation

Summary of the requirements of the input data files and the hardware to store and preserve the data.

Data Management Plan (DMP) update

Review and update of the of the requirements of the input data files and the hardware to store and preserve the data.

Website and social media platforms up and running, visual identity (design elements), templates and logo available

Description on the design of the project materials.

Communication and PR materials (roll-up and brochure).

Description of the PR materials.

Veröffentlichungen

Can Continental Models Convey Useful Seasonal Hydrologic Information at the Catchment Scale?

Autoren: L. Crochemore, M.‐H. Ramos, I. G. Pechlivanidis
Veröffentlicht in: Water Resources Research, Ausgabe 56/2, 2020, ISSN 0043-1397
Herausgeber: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2019wr025700

Seasonal prediction of Euro-Atlantic teleconnections from multiple systems

Autoren: Llorenç Lledó, Irene Cionni, Verónica Torralba, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Margarida Samsó
Veröffentlicht in: Environmental Research Letters, Ausgabe 15/7, 2020, Seite(n) 074009, ISSN 1748-9326
Herausgeber: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab87d2

Interannual weather variability and the challenges for Great Britain’s electricity market design

Autoren: Phil J. Coker, Hannah C. Bloomfield, Daniel R. Drew, David J. Brayshaw
Veröffentlicht in: Renewable Energy, Ausgabe 150, 2020, Seite(n) 509-522, ISSN 0960-1481
Herausgeber: Pergamon Press Ltd.
DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2019.12.082

Characterizing the winter meteorological drivers of the European electricity system using targeted circulation types

Autoren: Hannah C. Bloomfield, David J. Brayshaw, Andrew J. Charlton‐Perez
Veröffentlicht in: Meteorological Applications, Ausgabe 27/1, 2019, ISSN 1350-4827
Herausgeber: Cambridge University Press
DOI: 10.1002/met.1858

Choices in the Verification of S2S Forecasts and Their Implications for Climate Services

Autoren: Andrea Manrique-Suñén, Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego, Verónica Torralba, Nicola Cortesi, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
Veröffentlicht in: Monthly Weather Review, Ausgabe 148/10, 2020, Seite(n) 3995-4008, ISSN 0027-0644
Herausgeber: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-20-0067.1

What Are the Key Drivers Controlling the Quality of Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts?

Autoren: I. G. Pechlivanidis, L. Crochemore, J. Rosberg, T. Bosshard
Veröffentlicht in: Water Resources Research, Ausgabe 56/6, 2020, ISSN 0043-1397
Herausgeber: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2019wr026987

Predicting Daily Mean Wind Speed in Europe Weeks ahead from MJO Status

Autoren: Llorenç Lledó, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
Veröffentlicht in: Monthly Weather Review, Ausgabe 148/8, 2020, Seite(n) 3413-3426, ISSN 0027-0644
Herausgeber: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-19-0328.1

Challenges in the selection of atmospheric circulation patterns for the wind energy sector

Autoren: Verónica Torralba, Nube Gonzalez‐Reviriego, Nicola Cortesi, Andrea Manrique‐Suñén, Llorenç Lledó, Raül Marcos, Albert Soret, Francisco J. Doblas‐Reyes
Veröffentlicht in: International Journal of Climatology, 2020, ISSN 0899-8418
Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6881

Author Correction: Better seasonal forecasts for the renewable energy industry

Autoren: Anton Orlov, Jana Sillmann, Ilaria Vigo
Veröffentlicht in: Nature Energy, Ausgabe 5/3, 2020, Seite(n) 271-271, ISSN 2058-7546
Herausgeber: Nature Research
DOI: 10.1038/s41560-020-0586-9

Characterization of the near surface wind speed distribution at global scale: ERA-Interim reanalysis and ECMWF seasonal forecasting system 4

Autoren: Raül Marcos, Nube González-Reviriego, Verónica Torralba, Albert Soret, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
Veröffentlicht in: Climate Dynamics, Ausgabe Journal no. 382, 2018, Seite(n) pp1-13, ISSN 0930-7575
Herausgeber: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4338-5

Investigating the Effects of Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures on the Wind Drought of 2015 Over the United States

Autoren: Llorenç Lledó, Omar Bellprat, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Albert Soret
Veröffentlicht in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Ausgabe 123/10, 2018, Seite(n) 4837-4849, ISSN 2169-897X
Herausgeber: Wiley
DOI: 10.1029/2017JD028019

Seasonal forecasts of wind power generation

Autoren: Ll. Lledó, V. Torralba, A. Soret, J. Ramon, F.J. Doblas-Reyes
Veröffentlicht in: Renewable Energy, Ausgabe 143, 2019, Seite(n) 91-100, ISSN 0960-1481
Herausgeber: Pergamon Press Ltd.
DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2019.04.135

Sub-seasonal to seasonal climate predictions for wind energy forecasting

Autoren: A Soret, V Torralba, N Cortesi, I Christel, Ll Palma, A Manrique-Suñén, Ll Lledó, N González-Reviriego, F J Doblas-Reyes
Veröffentlicht in: Journal of Physics: Conference Series, Ausgabe 1222, 2019, Seite(n) 012009, ISSN 1742-6588
Herausgeber: Institute of Physics
DOI: 10.1088/1742-6596/1222/1/012009

Characterization of European wind speed variability using weather regimes

Autoren: Nicola Cortesi, Verónica Torralba, Nube González-Reviriego, Albert Soret, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
Veröffentlicht in: Climate Dynamics, 2019, ISSN 0930-7575
Herausgeber: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-04839-5

What global reanalysis best represents near‐surface winds?

Autoren: Jaume Ramon, Llorenç Lledó, Verónica Torralba, Albert Soret, Francisco J. Doblas‐Reyes
Veröffentlicht in: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Ausgabe 145/724, 2019, Seite(n) 3236-3251, ISSN 0035-9009
Herausgeber: Royal Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1002/qj.3616

Varying snow and vegetation signatures of surface albedo feedback on the Northern Hemisphere land warming

Autoren: Andrea Alessandri, Franco Catalano, Matteo De Felice, Bart van den Hurk, Gianpaolo Balsamo
Veröffentlicht in: Environmental Research Letters, 2020, ISSN 1748-9326
Herausgeber: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abd65f

Meteorological Drivers of European Power System Stress

Autoren: H. C. Bloomfield, C. C. Suitters, D. R. Drew
Veröffentlicht in: Journal of Renewable Energy, Ausgabe 2020, 2020, Seite(n) 1-12, ISSN 2314-4386
Herausgeber: Hindawi Limited
DOI: 10.1155/2020/5481010

Better seasonal forecasts for the renewable energy industry

Autoren: Anton Orlov, Jana Sillmann, Ilaria Vigo
Veröffentlicht in: Nature Energy, Ausgabe 5/2, 2020, Seite(n) 108-110, ISSN 2058-7546
Herausgeber: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41560-020-0561-5

HOW DID ARCTIC SEA ICE AFFECT ENERGY PRODUCTION IN EUROPE IN 2018?

Autoren: Octenjak, Sara; Bojovic, Dragana; Terrado, Marta; López Martí, Ferran; Ortega, Pablo; Acosta, Juan; Donar, Markus; Torralba, Veronica
Veröffentlicht in: Ausgabe 4, 2019
Herausgeber: Zenodo
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.3567616

A simplified seasonal forecasting strategy, applied to wind and solar power in Europe

Autoren: Philip Bett; Hazel Thornton; Alberto Troccoli; Matteo De Felice; Emma Suckling; Laurent Dubus; Yves-Marie Saint-Drenan; David Brayshaw
Veröffentlicht in: Crossref, Ausgabe 5, 2019
Herausgeber: Elsevier
DOI: 10.31223/osf.io/kzwqx

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