European Climate Prediction system

Risultati finali

Portfolio of suitable post-processed high-impact weather events for the present day and near future

Portfolio of suitable postprocessed highimpact weather events for the present day and near future

Concepts for prototype products and business and adaptation strategies making use of the EUCP system

Report about concepts for prototype products and business and adaptation strategies making use of the EUCP system

Development of methods to merge probabilistic forecasts based on global initialised and non-initialised predictions to provide a seamless prediction system

Development of methods to merge probabilistic forecasts based on global initialised and noninitialised predictions to provide a seamless prediction system

Climate/non-climatic attribution of hydro-meteorological events and losses
Exchange of data and results and planned joint activities amongst research communities
Merging methods based on, and added value of, the high-resolution regional climate simulations

Report on merging methods based on and added value of the highresolution regional climate simulations

Evaluation and combination of potential observational/emergent constraints relevant to European climate projections

Report on the evaluation and combination of potential observational/emergent constraints relevant to European climate projections

Potential future case studies and events of interest

This deliverable will include a short description of the case studies used in WP4 the sectors concerned data and methods used and the success or difficulties encountered It will also use the experience from the work package to propose a set of future case studies or events to be considered in future projects together with a selection strategy based on discussions that occurred with stakeholders or from experience These cases will consider the sectors where WP4 has worked on but also other potential sectors This deliverable could therefore feed the thinking about the legacy of EUCP

Literature research about existing scientific knowledge gaps and best practices related to the use of climate predictions

Literature research about existing scientific knowledge gaps and best practices related to the use of climate predictions in climate change response and adaptation

Outlook of future hazards
Production of uncertainty quantifications/PDFs, including separation into different components

Production of uncertainty quantificationsPDFs including separation into different components natural variability model uncertainty forcing uncertainty

Recommendations for the development of a new generation of climate forecast systems
Evaluation of forecast quality over the 1-40 year time span for both global initialised forecasts and the non-initialised projections
Exploitation of simulations for the EU Outermost Regions

Report on exploitation of simulations for the EU Outermost Regions short technical briefing report

Identification of optimal subset of future climate realisations and provision of event set of present and future extreme events

Set of plausible scenarios optimised for the climate around 2050 and optimised for the transient period that are set in the context of the UQsPDFs from Deliverable D23 In addition selection of a set of short extreme weather episodes in present and future climate

Simulation strategy for the continuous experiment approach over the Alpine focus sub-region and event-based approach at the pan-European level

Report on simulation strategy for the continuous experiment approach over the Alpine focus sub-region and event-based approach at the pan-European level

Fully assessed CP-RCMs for the simulation of high impact events for the simulation of high impact events

Report on the fully assessed CP-RCMs for the simulation of high impact events

Relevance of observational and emerging constraints and their reflection in the prediction distribution functions
Feedback and EUCP-design decisions (intermediate)

Intermediate collection of reports about feedback and EUCPdesign decisions

Evaluation of the difference methods to produce uncertainty quantifications/PDFs

Evaluation report on the difference methods to produce uncertainty quantifications/PDFs

Activities in research communities related to climate prediction
Feedback and EUCP-design decisions (final)

Final collection of reports about feedback and design decisions and joint activities between research communities

Development and exploitation of simulations for the EU Outermost Regions (short technical briefing report)

Development and exploitation of simulations for the EU Outermost Regions short technical briefing report

Merging method developed for storylines, and the production of combined time-series and events sets

Report on merging method developed for storylines and the production of combined timeseries and events sets generated from a combination of initialised and noninitialised model simulations with guidance on their use

Fully assessed multi-model based ensemble of simulations of high impact weather events for the historical and near future period

Fully assessed multimodel based ensemble of simulations of high impact weather events for the historical and near future periods approximately 1 40 years

Policy briefings - ready for dissemination

Policy briefings ready for dissemination

Development and exploitation of simulations for the EU Outermost Regions (glossy non-technical policy card))

Development and exploitation of simulations for the EU Outermost Regions glossy nontechnical policy card

Usability of EUCP service products for end users
End user requirements for the EUCP

Report on end user requirements for the EUCP including selection of indicators

Compilation and combination of multiple initialised climate predictions and delivery of real time climate predictions

Compilation and combination of multiple initialised climate predictions and delivery of real time climate predictions (in collaboration with WMO)

Construction of probability forecasts for the near term horizon (up to 10 years)

Construction of probability forecasts for the near term horizon up to 10 years from multiple sources of information for a number of the most commonly used variables and tailored to specific applications

Recommendations for collaboration protocols for identified cluster-projects

Report on recommendations for collaboration protocols for identified cluster-projects

Policy briefings about knowledge gaps and best practice

Data Management Plan

Data access infrastructure for end-users with appropriate documentation

Data access infrastructure for endusers with appropriate documentation

Project website and internal collaboration platform

Project website and internal collaboration platform available

Data access, analytics and provenance infrastructure for scientists
Quality checker for EUCP-data to check the CDS-compliance

Quality checker for EUCP-data to check the CDS-compliance (meta-data and consistency of EUCP data itself)

Training about EUCP data services infrastructure and use

Training aimed at scientists in work packages and partner projects. Training documents, recordings and minutes will be made available on website

Workshop about EUCP end user data services infrastructure for climate service providers

Workshop about EUCP end user data services infrastructure for climate service providers. Training documents, recordings and minutes of the training produced and made publicly available on website

Pubblicazioni

Challenges for drought assessment in the Mediterranean region under future climate scenarios

Autori: Tramblay, Y., et al.
Pubblicato in: Earth Science Reviews, Numero 210, 2020, Pagina/e 103348, ISSN 0012-8252
Editore: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103348

Irrigation of biomass plantations may globally increase water stress more than climate change

Autori: Fabian Stenzel; Peter Greve; Wolfgang Lucht; Wolfgang Lucht; Sylvia Tramberend; Yoshihide Wada; Dieter Gerten; Dieter Gerten
Pubblicato in: Nature Communications, Numero 2, 2021, ISSN 2041-1723
Editore: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21640-3

AMOC and summer sea ice as key drivers of the spread in mid-holocene winter temperature patterns over Europe in PMIP3 models

Autori: Gainusa-Bogdan A, Swingedouw D, Yiou P, et al
Pubblicato in: Global and Planetary Change, Numero 184, 2020, ISSN 0921-8181
Editore: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2019.103055

An investigation of weighting schemes suitable for incorporating large ensembles into multi-model ensembles

Autori: Anna Louise Merrifield, Lukas Brunner, Ruth Lorenz, Iselin Medhaug, Reto Knutti
Pubblicato in: Earth System Dynamics, Numero 11/3, 2020, Pagina/e 807-834, ISSN 2190-4987
Editore: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-807-2020

Convection‐permitting modeling with regional climate models: Latest developments and next steps

Autori: Lucas‐Picher, P., Argüeso, D., Brisson, E., Tramblay, Y., Berg, P., Lemonsu, A., Kotlarski, S., Caillaud, C.
Pubblicato in: WIREs Climate Change, Numero 12(6), 2021, Pagina/e e731, ISSN 1757-7799
Editore: Royal Meteorological Society and the Royal Geographical Society
DOI: 10.1002/wcc.731

Extreme rainfall in Mediterranean France during the fall: added value of the CNRM-AROME Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Model

Autori: Quentin Fumière, Michel Déqué, Olivier Nuissier, Samuel Somot, Antoinette Alias, Cécile Caillaud, Olivier Laurantin, Yann Seity
Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, Numero 55/1-2, 2020, Pagina/e 77-91, ISSN 0930-7575
Editore: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-04898-8

Precipitation From Persistent Extremes is Increasing in Most Regions and Globally

Autori: Du, Haibo; Alexander, Lisa V.; Donat, Markus G.; Lippmann, Tanya; Srivastava, Arvind; Salinger, Jim; Kruger, Andries; Choi, Gwangyong; He, Hong S.; Fujibe, Fumiaki; Rusticucci, Matilde; Nandintsetseg, Banzragch; Manzanas, Rodrigo; Rehman, Shafiqur; Abbas, Farhat; Zhai, Panmao; Yabi, Ibouraïma; Stambaugh, Michael C.; Wang, Shengzhong; Batbold, Altangerel; Oliveira, Priscilla Teles; Adrees, Muhamma
Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, Numero 46, 2019, Pagina/e 6041-6049, ISSN 0094-8276
Editore: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2019gl081898

The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution, Part I: Evaluation of precipitation

Autori: Nikolina Ban; Cécile Caillaud; Erika Coppola; Emanuela Pichelli; Stefan Sobolowski; Marianna Adinolfi; Bodo Ahrens; Antoinette Alias; Ivonne Anders; Sophie Bastin; Danijel Belušić; Ségolène Berthou; Erwan Brisson; Rita M. Cardoso; Steven Chan; Ole Bøssing Christensen; Jesús Fernández; Lluis Fita; Thomas Frisius; Goran Gašparac; Filippo Giorgi; Klaus Goergen; Jan Erik Haugen; Øivind Hodne
Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, Numero 57, 2021, Pagina/e 275-302, ISSN 0930-7575
Editore: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-22378

Does increased atmospheric resolution improve seasonal climate predictions?

Autori: Scaife AA, Camp J, Comer R, et al (2019). Does increased atmospheric resolution improve seasonal climate predictions? Atmos Sci Lett 20. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.922
Pubblicato in: Atmospheric Science Letters, Numero 20, 2019, ISSN 1530-261X
Editore: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
DOI: 10.1002/asl.922

How Reliable Are Decadal Climate Predictions of Near-Surface Air Temperature?

Autori: Deborah Verfaillie, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Markus G. Donat, Núria Pérez-Zanón, Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali, Verónica Torralba, Simon Wild
Pubblicato in: Journal of Climate, Numero 34/2, 2021, Pagina/e 697-713, ISSN 0894-8755
Editore: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0138.1

Western boundary circulation and coastal sea-level variability in Northern Hemisphere oceans

Autori: Samuel Tiéfolo Diabaté; Didier Swingedouw; J. J. M. Hirschi; Aurelie Duchez; Philip Leadbitter; Ivan D. Haigh; Gerard McCarthy
Pubblicato in: Ocean Science, Numero 18120792, 2021, Pagina/e 1449-1471, ISSN 1812-0792
Editore: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/os-17-1449-2021

Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues

Autori: Menary MB, Mignot J, Robson J
Pubblicato in: Environmental Research Letters, Numero 16, 2021, ISSN 1748-9326
Editore: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb

Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and North Atlantic Jet: A Multimodel View from the Decadal Climate Prediction Project

Autori: Paolo Ruggieri, Alessio Bellucci, Dario Nicolí, Panos J. Athanasiadis, Silvio Gualdi, Christophe Cassou, Fred Castruccio, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Paolo Davini, Nick Dunstone, Rosemary Eade, Guillaume Gastineau, Ben Harvey, Leon Hermanson, Saïd Qasmi, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Emilia Sanchez-Gomez, Doug Smith, Simon Wild, Matteo Zampieri
Pubblicato in: Journal of Climate, Numero 34/1, 2021, Pagina/e 347-360, ISSN 0894-8755
Editore: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-0981.1

Determining the Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Contribution to the Observed Intensification of Extreme Precipitation

Autori: Seungmok Paik; Seung-Ki Min; Seung-Ki Min; Xuebin Zhang; Markus G. Donat; Andrew D. King; Qiaohong Sun
Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, Numero 47, 2020, ISSN 0094-8276
Editore: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2019gl086875

Estimating dune erosion at the regional scale using a meta-model based on Neural Networks

Autori: Athanasiou, P., van Dongeren, A., Giardino, A., Vousdoukas, M., Antolinez, J.A.A.A. & Ranasinghe, R.
Pubblicato in: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (EGU), 2022, ISSN 1684-9981
Editore: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-2022-106

Global assessment of water challenges under uncertainty in water scarcity projections

Autori: Greve P, Kahil T, Mochizuki J, Schinko T, Satoh Y, Burek P, Fischer G, Tramberend S, Burtscher R, Langan S, Wada Y
Pubblicato in: Nature Sustainability, Numero 1, 2018, Pagina/e 486-494, ISSN 2398-9629
Editore: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41893-018-0134-9

Modes of climate variability: Synthesis and review of proxy-based reconstructions through the Holocene

Autori: Hernandez A, Martin-Puertas C, Moffa-Sanchez P, et al
Pubblicato in: Earth Science Reviews, Numero 209, 2020, ISSN 0012-8252
Editore: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103286

The Mediterranean climate change hotspot in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections

Autori: J. Cos; F. Doblas-Reyes; F. Doblas-Reyes; M. Jury; M. Jury; R. Marcos; P.-A. Bretonnière; M. Samsó
Pubblicato in: Earth System Dynamics, Numero 13, 2022, Pagina/e 321-340, ISSN 2190-4979
Editore: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH
DOI: 10.5194/esd-13-321-2022

A Clustering Approach for Predicting Dune Morphodynamic Response to Storms Using Typological Coastal Profiles: A Case Study at the Dutch Coast

Autori: Athanasiou, P., van Dongeren, A., Giardino, A., Vousdoukas, M., Antolinez, J.A.A.A., Ranasinghe, R.
Pubblicato in: Frontiers in Marine Science, Numero 8, 2021, Pagina/e 1-20, ISSN 2296-7745
Editore: Frontiers Media SA
DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2021.747754

An interdecadal shift of the extratropical ENSO teleconnection during boreal summer

Autori: O'Reilly, C., Woollings, T., Zanna, L. & Weisheimer, A.
Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, Numero 46, 2019, ISSN 0094-8276
Editore: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2019gl084079

North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply

Autori: D. M. Smith, A. A. Scaife, R. Eade, P. Athanasiadis, A. Bellucci, I. Bethke, R. Bilbao, L. F. Borchert, L.-P. Caron, F. Counillon, G. Danabasoglu, T. Delworth, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, N. J. Dunstone, V. Estella-Perez, S. Flavoni, L. Hermanson, N. Keenlyside, V. Kharin, M. Kimoto, W. J. Merryfield, J. Mignot, T. Mochizuki, K. Modali, P.-A. Monerie, W. A. Müller, D. Nicolí, P. Ortega, K. Pankatz, H. P
Pubblicato in: Nature, Numero 583/7818, 2020, Pagina/e 796-800, ISSN 0028-0836
Editore: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2525-0

The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution part 2: historical and future simulations of precipitation

Autori: Pichelli, E., Coppola, E., Sobolowski, S., Ban, N., Giorgi, F., Stocchi, P., Alias, A., Belušić, D., Berthou, S., Caillaud, C., Chan, S., Christensen, O. B., Dobler, A., de Vries, H., Goergen, K., Keuler, K., Lenderink, G., Lorenz, T., Panitz, H.-J., Schär, C., Pedro Soares, M. M., Truhetz, H., Vergara-Temprado, J., Cardoso, R. M., Kendon, E. J. & Mishra, A. N.
Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, Numero 56, 2021, Pagina/e 3581-3602, ISSN 0930-7575
Editore: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05657-4

The blessing of dimensionality for the analysis of climate data

Autori: Christiansen, B.
Pubblicato in: Non-linear processes in Geophysics, Numero 28, 2021, Pagina/e 409-422, ISSN 1023-5809
Editore: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.5194/npg-28-409-2021

Assessment of a full-field initialised decadal climate prediction system with the CMIP6 versio of EC-Earth

Autori: Bilbao, R., S. Wild, P. Ortega, J. Acosta-Navarro, T. Arsouze, P.-A. Bretonnière, L.-P. Caron, M. Castrillo, R. Cruz-García, I. Cvijanovic, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, M. Donat, E. Dutra, P. Echevarría, A.-C. Ho, S. Loosveldt-Tomas, E. Moreno-Chamarro, N. Pérez-Zanon, A. Ramos, Y. Ruprich-Robert, V. Sicardi, E. Tourigny and J. Vegas-Regidor
Pubblicato in: Earth System Dynamics, Numero 12, 2019, Pagina/e 173-196, ISSN 2190-4979
Editore: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH
DOI: 10.5194/esd-2020-66

Benefits of sea ice initialization for the interannual-to-decadal climate prediction skill in the Arctic in EC-Earth3

Autori: Tian T, Yang S, Karami MP, et al
Pubblicato in: Geoscience Model Development, Numero 14, 2021, Pagina/e 4283-4305, ISSN 1991-9603
Editore: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-14-4283-2021

Klotzbach P, Blake E, Camp J, et al (2019). Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Forecasting. Trop CYCLONE Res Rev 8:134–149. https://doi.org/10.6057/2019TCRR03.03

Autori: Klotzbach P, Blake E, Camp J, et al
Pubblicato in: Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, Numero 8, 2019, Pagina/e 134-149, ISSN 2589-3025
Editore: KeAi Elsevier
DOI: 10.6057/2019tcrr03.03

Self-Organizing Maps Identify Windows of Opportunity for Seasonal European Summer Predictions

Autori: Julianna Carvalho-Oliveira; Leonard F. Borchert; Eduardo Zorita; Johanna Baehr
Pubblicato in: Frontiers in Climate, Numero 4, 2022, ISSN 2624-9553
Editore: Frontiers Media SA
DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2022.844634

Physical storylines of future European drought events like 2018 based on ensemble climate modelling

Autori: Karin van der Wiel; Geert Lenderink; Hylke de Vries
Pubblicato in: Weather and climate extremes, Numero 33, 2021, ISSN 2212-0947
Editore: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1823

Statistical adjustment, calibration and downscaling of seasonal forecasts: a case-study for Southeast Asia

Autori: Manzanas, R.; Gutiérrez, J. M.; Bhend, J.; Hemri, S.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Penabad, E.; Brookshaw, A.
Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, Numero 54, 2020, ISSN 0930-7575
Editore: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05145-1

Sandy coastlines under threat of erosion

Autori: Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Theocharis A. Plomaritis, Panagiotis Athanasiou, Arjen Luijendijk, Luc Feyen
Pubblicato in: Nature Climate Change, Numero 10/3, 2020, Pagina/e 260-263, ISSN 1758-678X
Editore: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0697-0

Improved Decadal Predictions of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre SST in CMIP6

Autori: Leonard Borchert; Matthew Menary; Didier Swingedouw; Giovanni Sgubin; Leon Hermanson; Juliette Mignot
Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, Numero 48 (3), 2021, ISSN 0094-8276
Editore: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091307

Modelling Mediterranean heavy precipitation events at climate scale: an object-oriented evaluation of the CNRM-AROME convection-permitting regional climate model

Autori: Caillaud C., Somot S., Alias A., Bernard-Bouissières I., Fumière Q., Laurantin O., Seity Y., Ducrocq V.
Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, Numero 56, 2021, Pagina/e 1717-1752, ISSN 0930-7575
Editore: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05558-y

The Tuning Strategy of IPSL-CM6A-LR

Autori: Mignot J, Hourdin F, Deshayes J, et al
Pubblicato in: Journal of Advances in Modelling Earth Systems (JAMES), 2021, ISSN 1942-2466
Editore: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020ms002340

HCLIM38: a flexible regional climate model applicable for different climate zones from coarse to convection-permitting scales

Autori: Danijel Belušić, Hylke de Vries, Andreas Dobler, Oskar Landgren, Petter Lind, David Lindstedt, Rasmus A. Pedersen, Juan Carlos Sánchez-Perrino, Erika Toivonen, Bert van Ulft, Fuxing Wang, Ulf Andrae, Yurii Batrak, Erik Kjellström, Geert Lenderink, Grigory Nikulin, Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Ernesto Rodríguez-Camino, Patrick Samuelsson, Erik van Meijgaard, Minchao Wu
Pubblicato in: Geoscientific Model Development, Numero 13/3, 2020, Pagina/e 1311-1333, ISSN 1991-9603
Editore: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-13-1311-2020

Cost-benefit analysis of coastal flood defence measures in the North Adriatic Sea

Autori: Amadio, M., Essenfelder, A.H., Bagli, S., Marzi, S., Mazzoli, P., Mysiak, J., Roberts, S.
Pubblicato in: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (EGU), Numero 22, 2022, Pagina/e 265-286, ISSN 1684-9981
Editore: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-22-265-2022

Human influence strengthens the contrast between tropical wet and dry regions

Autori: Andrew P Schurer, Andrew P Ballinger, Andrew R Friedman, Gabriele C Hegerl
Pubblicato in: Environmental Research Letters, Numero 15/10, 2020, Pagina/e 104026, ISSN 1748-9326
Editore: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab83ab

Improved models, improved information? Exploring how climate change impacts pollen, influenza, and mold in Berlin and its surroundings

Autori: Langendijk, G.S., Rechid D. and Jacob D.
Pubblicato in: Journal of Urban Climate, Numero 43, 2022, ISSN 2212-0955
Editore: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101159

Lehner F, Deser C, Maher N, et al (2020) Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6. EARTH Syst Dyn 11:491–508. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-491-2020

Autori: Lehner F, Deser C, Maher N, et al (2020) Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6. EARTH Syst Dyn 11:491–508. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-491-2020
Pubblicato in: Earth System Dynamics, Numero 11, 2020, Pagina/e 491-508, ISSN 2190-4979
Editore: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH
DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-491-2020

Correction to: Modelling Mediterranean heavy precipitation events at climate scale: an object-oriented evaluation of the CNRM-AROME convection-permitting regional climate model

Autori: Caillaud C., Somot S., Alias A., Bernard-Bouissières I., Fumière Q., Laurantin O., Seity Y., Ducrocq V.
Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, Numero 58, 2022, Pagina/e 625-630, ISSN 0930-7575
Editore: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05887-6

Multi-year prediction of European summer drought conditions for the agricultural sector

Autori: Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali, Louis-Philippe Caron, Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego, Francisco J Doblas-Reyes
Pubblicato in: Environmental Research Letters, Numero 14/12, 2019, Pagina/e 124014, ISSN 1748-9326
Editore: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab5043

Towards operational predictions of the near-term climate

Autori: Kushnir, Yochanan; Scaife, Adam A.; Arritt, Raymond; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Boer, George; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Hawkins, Ed; Kimoto, Masahide; Kolli, Rupa Kumar; Kumar, Arun; Matei, Daniela; Matthes, Katja; Müller, Wolfgang A.; O’Kane, Terence; Perlwitz, Judith; Power, Scott; Raphael, Marilyn; Shimpo, Akihiko; Smith, Doug; Tuma, Matthias; Wu, Bo
Pubblicato in: Nature Climate Change, 9 . pp. 94-101., Numero 4, 2019, Pagina/e 94-101, ISSN 1758-6798
Editore: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0359-7

A global analysis of extreme coastal water levels with implications for potential coastal overtopping

Autori: Almar R, Ranasinghe R, Bergsma EWJ, Athanasiou P., et al
Pubblicato in: Nature Communications, Numero 12, 2021, Pagina/e 1-9, ISSN 2041-1723
Editore: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-24008-9

Constraining Projections Using Decadal Predictions

Autori: Daniel J. Befort, Christopher H. O'Reilly, Antje Weisheimer
Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, Numero 47/18, 2020, ISSN 0094-8276
Editore: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl087900

Trends, variability and predictive skill of the ocean heat content in North Atlantic: An analysis with the EC-Earth3 model

Autori: Carmo-Costa, T., R. Bilbao, P. Ortega, A. Teles-Machado and E. Dutra
Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, Numero 58, 2022, Pagina/e 1311-1328, ISSN 0930-7575
Editore: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05962-y

Regional modeling of surface mass balance on the Cook Ice Cap, Kerguelen Islands (49ºS, 69ºE)

Autori: Verfaillie, D., Favier, V., Gallée, H., Fettweis, X., Agosta, C. & Jomelli, V.
Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, Numero 53, 2019, Pagina/e 5909-5925, ISSN 0930-7575
Editore: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-04904-z

Benefits and added value of convection-permitting climate modeling over Fenno-Scandinavia

Autori: Petter Lind, Danijel Belušić, Ole B. Christensen, Andreas Dobler, Erik Kjellström, Oskar Landgren, David Lindstedt, Dominic Matte, Rasmus A. Pedersen, Erika Toivonen, Fuxing Wang
Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, Numero 55/7-8, 2020, Pagina/e 1893-1912, ISSN 0930-7575
Editore: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05359-3

Projections of northern hemisphere extratropical climate underestimate internal variability and associated uncertainty

Autori: Christopher O'Reilly; Daniel J. Befort; Antje Weisheimer; Antje Weisheimer; Tim Woollings; Andrew Ballinger; Gabriele C. Hegerl
Pubblicato in: Communications Earth & Environment, Numero 2, 2021, ISSN 2662-4435
Editore: Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-021-00268-7

Atlantic Ocean influence on Middle East summer surface air temperature

Autori: Muhammad Azhar Ehsan, Dario Nicolì, Fred Kucharski, Mansour Almazroui, Michael K. Tippett, Alessio Bellucci, Paolo Ruggieri, In-Sik Kang
Pubblicato in: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Numero 3/1, 2020, ISSN 2397-3722
Editore: Nature Research
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-020-0109-1

The impact of the AMV on Eurasian summer hydrological cycle

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Quasi‐Stationary Intense Rainstorms Spread Across Europe Under Climate Change

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Tailoring circulation type classification outcomes

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Internal variability versus multi‐physics uncertainty in a regional climate model

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Towards consistent observational constraints in climate predictions and projections

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A new spatially distributed added value index for regional climate models: the EURO-CORDEX and the CORDEX-CORE highest resolution ensembles

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Advances in reconstructing the AMOC using sea surface observations of salinity

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Assessment of the spatio-temporal variability of the added value on precipitation of convection-permitting simulation over the Iberian Peninsula using the RegIPSL regional earth system mode

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The aridity index under global warming

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Linking Ocean Forcing and Atmospheric Interactions to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in MPI‐ESM1.2

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Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclones over the North Atlantic and Western North Pacific

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Decadal Predictions of the Probability of Occurrence for Warm Summer Temperature Extremes

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WMO global annual to decadal climate update: a prediction for 2021–25

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Using statistical downscaling to assess skill of decadal predictions

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The effects of bias, drift, and trends in calculating anomalies for evaluating skill of seasonal-to-decadal initialized climate predictions

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Extreme windstorms and sting jets in convection-permitting climate simulations over Europe

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The influence of ENSO events on the stratospheric QBO in a multi-model ensemble

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Reconstructing climatic modes of variability from proxy records using ClimIndRec version 1.0

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Subtle influence of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) on seasonal sea surface temperature (SST) hindcast skill in the North Atlantic

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Regional Climate Model emulator based on deep learning: concept and first evaluation of a novel hybrid downscaling approach

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Global distribution of nearshore slopes with implications for coastal retreat

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Evaluation of the near-surface wind field over the Adriatic region: local wind characteristics in the convection-permitting model ensemble

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Autori: Scaife, A. A., Hermanson, L., van Niekerk, A., Andrews, M., Baldwin, M. P., Belcher S., Bett, P., Comer, R. E., Dunstone N. J., Geen R., Hardiman S. C., Ineson S., Knight J., Nie Y., Ren H.-L., and Smith D.
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Towards European wide maps of climatologic homogeneous regions for rainfall

Autori: Zander MJ, Sperna Weiland FC, and Weerts AH
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Uncertainty analysis in land loss prediction due to sea level rise, for sandy systems, at the European scale

Autori: Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Alessio Giardino, Michalis Vousdoukas, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Jaap Kwadijk
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Overview of near-term decadal climate prediction and its applications: Technical note

Autori: Gonzalez-Reviriego, Nube; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Solaraju Murali, Balakrishnan; Doblas Reyes, Francisco
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How to better predict North Atlantic’s atmospheric pressure patterns

Autori: Based on paper by Athanasiou, P., van Dongeren, A., Giardino, A., Vousdoukas, M., Gaytan-Aguilar, S., and Ranasinghe, R.
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