European Climate Prediction system

Deliverables

Portfolio of suitable post-processed high-impact weather events for the present day and near future

Portfolio of suitable postprocessed highimpact weather events for the present day and near future

Concepts for prototype products and business and adaptation strategies making use of the EUCP system

Report about concepts for prototype products and business and adaptation strategies making use of the EUCP system

Development of methods to merge probabilistic forecasts based on global initialised and non-initialised predictions to provide a seamless prediction system

Development of methods to merge probabilistic forecasts based on global initialised and noninitialised predictions to provide a seamless prediction system

Climate/non-climatic attribution of hydro-meteorological events and losses
Exchange of data and results and planned joint activities amongst research communities
Merging methods based on, and added value of, the high-resolution regional climate simulations

Report on merging methods based on and added value of the highresolution regional climate simulations

Evaluation and combination of potential observational/emergent constraints relevant to European climate projections

Report on the evaluation and combination of potential observational/emergent constraints relevant to European climate projections

Potential future case studies and events of interest

This deliverable will include a short description of the case studies used in WP4 the sectors concerned data and methods used and the success or difficulties encountered It will also use the experience from the work package to propose a set of future case studies or events to be considered in future projects together with a selection strategy based on discussions that occurred with stakeholders or from experience These cases will consider the sectors where WP4 has worked on but also other potential sectors This deliverable could therefore feed the thinking about the legacy of EUCP

Literature research about existing scientific knowledge gaps and best practices related to the use of climate predictions

Literature research about existing scientific knowledge gaps and best practices related to the use of climate predictions in climate change response and adaptation

Outlook of future hazards
Production of uncertainty quantifications/PDFs, including separation into different components

Production of uncertainty quantificationsPDFs including separation into different components natural variability model uncertainty forcing uncertainty

Recommendations for the development of a new generation of climate forecast systems
Evaluation of forecast quality over the 1-40 year time span for both global initialised forecasts and the non-initialised projections
Exploitation of simulations for the EU Outermost Regions

Report on exploitation of simulations for the EU Outermost Regions short technical briefing report

Identification of optimal subset of future climate realisations and provision of event set of present and future extreme events

Set of plausible scenarios optimised for the climate around 2050 and optimised for the transient period that are set in the context of the UQsPDFs from Deliverable D23 In addition selection of a set of short extreme weather episodes in present and future climate

Simulation strategy for the continuous experiment approach over the Alpine focus sub-region and event-based approach at the pan-European level

Report on simulation strategy for the continuous experiment approach over the Alpine focus sub-region and event-based approach at the pan-European level

Fully assessed CP-RCMs for the simulation of high impact events for the simulation of high impact events

Report on the fully assessed CP-RCMs for the simulation of high impact events

Relevance of observational and emerging constraints and their reflection in the prediction distribution functions
Feedback and EUCP-design decisions (intermediate)

Intermediate collection of reports about feedback and EUCPdesign decisions

Evaluation of the difference methods to produce uncertainty quantifications/PDFs

Evaluation report on the difference methods to produce uncertainty quantifications/PDFs

Activities in research communities related to climate prediction
Feedback and EUCP-design decisions (final)

Final collection of reports about feedback and design decisions and joint activities between research communities

Development and exploitation of simulations for the EU Outermost Regions (short technical briefing report)

Development and exploitation of simulations for the EU Outermost Regions short technical briefing report

Merging method developed for storylines, and the production of combined time-series and events sets

Report on merging method developed for storylines and the production of combined timeseries and events sets generated from a combination of initialised and noninitialised model simulations with guidance on their use

Fully assessed multi-model based ensemble of simulations of high impact weather events for the historical and near future period

Fully assessed multimodel based ensemble of simulations of high impact weather events for the historical and near future periods approximately 1 40 years

Policy briefings - ready for dissemination

Policy briefings ready for dissemination

Development and exploitation of simulations for the EU Outermost Regions (glossy non-technical policy card))

Development and exploitation of simulations for the EU Outermost Regions glossy nontechnical policy card

Usability of EUCP service products for end users
End user requirements for the EUCP

Report on end user requirements for the EUCP including selection of indicators

Compilation and combination of multiple initialised climate predictions and delivery of real time climate predictions

Compilation and combination of multiple initialised climate predictions and delivery of real time climate predictions (in collaboration with WMO)

Construction of probability forecasts for the near term horizon (up to 10 years)

Construction of probability forecasts for the near term horizon up to 10 years from multiple sources of information for a number of the most commonly used variables and tailored to specific applications

Recommendations for collaboration protocols for identified cluster-projects

Report on recommendations for collaboration protocols for identified cluster-projects

Policy briefings about knowledge gaps and best practice

Data Management Plan

Data access infrastructure for end-users with appropriate documentation

Data access infrastructure for endusers with appropriate documentation

Project website and internal collaboration platform

Project website and internal collaboration platform available

Data access, analytics and provenance infrastructure for scientists
Quality checker for EUCP-data to check the CDS-compliance

Quality checker for EUCP-data to check the CDS-compliance (meta-data and consistency of EUCP data itself)

Training about EUCP data services infrastructure and use

Training aimed at scientists in work packages and partner projects. Training documents, recordings and minutes will be made available on website

Workshop about EUCP end user data services infrastructure for climate service providers

Workshop about EUCP end user data services infrastructure for climate service providers. Training documents, recordings and minutes of the training produced and made publicly available on website

Publications

Challenges for drought assessment in the Mediterranean region under future climate scenarios

Author(s): Tramblay, Y., et al.
Published in: Earth Science Reviews, Issue 210, 2020, Page(s) 103348, ISSN 0012-8252
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103348

Irrigation of biomass plantations may globally increase water stress more than climate change

Author(s): Fabian Stenzel; Peter Greve; Wolfgang Lucht; Wolfgang Lucht; Sylvia Tramberend; Yoshihide Wada; Dieter Gerten; Dieter Gerten
Published in: Nature Communications, Issue 2, 2021, ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21640-3

AMOC and summer sea ice as key drivers of the spread in mid-holocene winter temperature patterns over Europe in PMIP3 models

Author(s): Gainusa-Bogdan A, Swingedouw D, Yiou P, et al
Published in: Global and Planetary Change, Issue 184, 2020, ISSN 0921-8181
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2019.103055

An investigation of weighting schemes suitable for incorporating large ensembles into multi-model ensembles

Author(s): Anna Louise Merrifield, Lukas Brunner, Ruth Lorenz, Iselin Medhaug, Reto Knutti
Published in: Earth System Dynamics, Issue 11/3, 2020, Page(s) 807-834, ISSN 2190-4987
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-807-2020

Convection‐permitting modeling with regional climate models: Latest developments and next steps

Author(s): Lucas‐Picher, P., Argüeso, D., Brisson, E., Tramblay, Y., Berg, P., Lemonsu, A., Kotlarski, S., Caillaud, C.
Published in: WIREs Climate Change, Issue 12(6), 2021, Page(s) e731, ISSN 1757-7799
Publisher: Royal Meteorological Society and the Royal Geographical Society
DOI: 10.1002/wcc.731

Extreme rainfall in Mediterranean France during the fall: added value of the CNRM-AROME Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Model

Author(s): Quentin Fumière, Michel Déqué, Olivier Nuissier, Samuel Somot, Antoinette Alias, Cécile Caillaud, Olivier Laurantin, Yann Seity
Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 55/1-2, 2020, Page(s) 77-91, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-04898-8

Precipitation From Persistent Extremes is Increasing in Most Regions and Globally

Author(s): Du, Haibo; Alexander, Lisa V.; Donat, Markus G.; Lippmann, Tanya; Srivastava, Arvind; Salinger, Jim; Kruger, Andries; Choi, Gwangyong; He, Hong S.; Fujibe, Fumiaki; Rusticucci, Matilde; Nandintsetseg, Banzragch; Manzanas, Rodrigo; Rehman, Shafiqur; Abbas, Farhat; Zhai, Panmao; Yabi, Ibouraïma; Stambaugh, Michael C.; Wang, Shengzhong; Batbold, Altangerel; Oliveira, Priscilla Teles; Adrees, Muhamma
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 46, 2019, Page(s) 6041-6049, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2019gl081898

The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution, Part I: Evaluation of precipitation

Author(s): Nikolina Ban; Cécile Caillaud; Erika Coppola; Emanuela Pichelli; Stefan Sobolowski; Marianna Adinolfi; Bodo Ahrens; Antoinette Alias; Ivonne Anders; Sophie Bastin; Danijel Belušić; Ségolène Berthou; Erwan Brisson; Rita M. Cardoso; Steven Chan; Ole Bøssing Christensen; Jesús Fernández; Lluis Fita; Thomas Frisius; Goran Gašparac; Filippo Giorgi; Klaus Goergen; Jan Erik Haugen; Øivind Hodne
Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 57, 2021, Page(s) 275-302, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-22378

Does increased atmospheric resolution improve seasonal climate predictions?

Author(s): Scaife AA, Camp J, Comer R, et al (2019). Does increased atmospheric resolution improve seasonal climate predictions? Atmos Sci Lett 20. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.922
Published in: Atmospheric Science Letters, Issue 20, 2019, ISSN 1530-261X
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
DOI: 10.1002/asl.922

How Reliable Are Decadal Climate Predictions of Near-Surface Air Temperature?

Author(s): Deborah Verfaillie, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Markus G. Donat, Núria Pérez-Zanón, Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali, Verónica Torralba, Simon Wild
Published in: Journal of Climate, Issue 34/2, 2021, Page(s) 697-713, ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0138.1

Western boundary circulation and coastal sea-level variability in Northern Hemisphere oceans

Author(s): Samuel Tiéfolo Diabaté; Didier Swingedouw; J. J. M. Hirschi; Aurelie Duchez; Philip Leadbitter; Ivan D. Haigh; Gerard McCarthy
Published in: Ocean Science, Issue 18120792, 2021, Page(s) 1449-1471, ISSN 1812-0792
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/os-17-1449-2021

Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues

Author(s): Menary MB, Mignot J, Robson J
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 16, 2021, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb

Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and North Atlantic Jet: A Multimodel View from the Decadal Climate Prediction Project

Author(s): Paolo Ruggieri, Alessio Bellucci, Dario Nicolí, Panos J. Athanasiadis, Silvio Gualdi, Christophe Cassou, Fred Castruccio, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Paolo Davini, Nick Dunstone, Rosemary Eade, Guillaume Gastineau, Ben Harvey, Leon Hermanson, Saïd Qasmi, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Emilia Sanchez-Gomez, Doug Smith, Simon Wild, Matteo Zampieri
Published in: Journal of Climate, Issue 34/1, 2021, Page(s) 347-360, ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-0981.1

Determining the Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Contribution to the Observed Intensification of Extreme Precipitation

Author(s): Seungmok Paik; Seung-Ki Min; Seung-Ki Min; Xuebin Zhang; Markus G. Donat; Andrew D. King; Qiaohong Sun
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 47, 2020, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2019gl086875

Estimating dune erosion at the regional scale using a meta-model based on Neural Networks

Author(s): Athanasiou, P., van Dongeren, A., Giardino, A., Vousdoukas, M., Antolinez, J.A.A.A. & Ranasinghe, R.
Published in: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (EGU), 2022, ISSN 1684-9981
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-2022-106

Global assessment of water challenges under uncertainty in water scarcity projections

Author(s): Greve P, Kahil T, Mochizuki J, Schinko T, Satoh Y, Burek P, Fischer G, Tramberend S, Burtscher R, Langan S, Wada Y
Published in: Nature Sustainability, Issue 1, 2018, Page(s) 486-494, ISSN 2398-9629
Publisher: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41893-018-0134-9

Modes of climate variability: Synthesis and review of proxy-based reconstructions through the Holocene

Author(s): Hernandez A, Martin-Puertas C, Moffa-Sanchez P, et al
Published in: Earth Science Reviews, Issue 209, 2020, ISSN 0012-8252
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103286

The Mediterranean climate change hotspot in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections

Author(s): J. Cos; F. Doblas-Reyes; F. Doblas-Reyes; M. Jury; M. Jury; R. Marcos; P.-A. Bretonnière; M. Samsó
Published in: Earth System Dynamics, Issue 13, 2022, Page(s) 321-340, ISSN 2190-4979
Publisher: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH
DOI: 10.5194/esd-13-321-2022

A Clustering Approach for Predicting Dune Morphodynamic Response to Storms Using Typological Coastal Profiles: A Case Study at the Dutch Coast

Author(s): Athanasiou, P., van Dongeren, A., Giardino, A., Vousdoukas, M., Antolinez, J.A.A.A., Ranasinghe, R.
Published in: Frontiers in Marine Science, Issue 8, 2021, Page(s) 1-20, ISSN 2296-7745
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2021.747754

An interdecadal shift of the extratropical ENSO teleconnection during boreal summer

Author(s): O'Reilly, C., Woollings, T., Zanna, L. & Weisheimer, A.
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 46, 2019, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2019gl084079

North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply

Author(s): D. M. Smith, A. A. Scaife, R. Eade, P. Athanasiadis, A. Bellucci, I. Bethke, R. Bilbao, L. F. Borchert, L.-P. Caron, F. Counillon, G. Danabasoglu, T. Delworth, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, N. J. Dunstone, V. Estella-Perez, S. Flavoni, L. Hermanson, N. Keenlyside, V. Kharin, M. Kimoto, W. J. Merryfield, J. Mignot, T. Mochizuki, K. Modali, P.-A. Monerie, W. A. Müller, D. Nicolí, P. Ortega, K. Pankatz, H. P
Published in: Nature, Issue 583/7818, 2020, Page(s) 796-800, ISSN 0028-0836
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2525-0

The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution part 2: historical and future simulations of precipitation

Author(s): Pichelli, E., Coppola, E., Sobolowski, S., Ban, N., Giorgi, F., Stocchi, P., Alias, A., Belušić, D., Berthou, S., Caillaud, C., Chan, S., Christensen, O. B., Dobler, A., de Vries, H., Goergen, K., Keuler, K., Lenderink, G., Lorenz, T., Panitz, H.-J., Schär, C., Pedro Soares, M. M., Truhetz, H., Vergara-Temprado, J., Cardoso, R. M., Kendon, E. J. & Mishra, A. N.
Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 56, 2021, Page(s) 3581-3602, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05657-4

The blessing of dimensionality for the analysis of climate data

Author(s): Christiansen, B.
Published in: Non-linear processes in Geophysics, Issue 28, 2021, Page(s) 409-422, ISSN 1023-5809
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.5194/npg-28-409-2021

Assessment of a full-field initialised decadal climate prediction system with the CMIP6 versio of EC-Earth

Author(s): Bilbao, R., S. Wild, P. Ortega, J. Acosta-Navarro, T. Arsouze, P.-A. Bretonnière, L.-P. Caron, M. Castrillo, R. Cruz-García, I. Cvijanovic, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, M. Donat, E. Dutra, P. Echevarría, A.-C. Ho, S. Loosveldt-Tomas, E. Moreno-Chamarro, N. Pérez-Zanon, A. Ramos, Y. Ruprich-Robert, V. Sicardi, E. Tourigny and J. Vegas-Regidor
Published in: Earth System Dynamics, Issue 12, 2019, Page(s) 173-196, ISSN 2190-4979
Publisher: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH
DOI: 10.5194/esd-2020-66

Benefits of sea ice initialization for the interannual-to-decadal climate prediction skill in the Arctic in EC-Earth3

Author(s): Tian T, Yang S, Karami MP, et al
Published in: Geoscience Model Development, Issue 14, 2021, Page(s) 4283-4305, ISSN 1991-9603
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-14-4283-2021

Klotzbach P, Blake E, Camp J, et al (2019). Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Forecasting. Trop CYCLONE Res Rev 8:134–149. https://doi.org/10.6057/2019TCRR03.03

Author(s): Klotzbach P, Blake E, Camp J, et al
Published in: Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, Issue 8, 2019, Page(s) 134-149, ISSN 2589-3025
Publisher: KeAi Elsevier
DOI: 10.6057/2019tcrr03.03

Self-Organizing Maps Identify Windows of Opportunity for Seasonal European Summer Predictions

Author(s): Julianna Carvalho-Oliveira; Leonard F. Borchert; Eduardo Zorita; Johanna Baehr
Published in: Frontiers in Climate, Issue 4, 2022, ISSN 2624-9553
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2022.844634

Physical storylines of future European drought events like 2018 based on ensemble climate modelling

Author(s): Karin van der Wiel; Geert Lenderink; Hylke de Vries
Published in: Weather and climate extremes, Issue 33, 2021, ISSN 2212-0947
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1823

Statistical adjustment, calibration and downscaling of seasonal forecasts: a case-study for Southeast Asia

Author(s): Manzanas, R.; Gutiérrez, J. M.; Bhend, J.; Hemri, S.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Penabad, E.; Brookshaw, A.
Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 54, 2020, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05145-1

Sandy coastlines under threat of erosion

Author(s): Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Theocharis A. Plomaritis, Panagiotis Athanasiou, Arjen Luijendijk, Luc Feyen
Published in: Nature Climate Change, Issue 10/3, 2020, Page(s) 260-263, ISSN 1758-678X
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0697-0

Improved Decadal Predictions of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre SST in CMIP6

Author(s): Leonard Borchert; Matthew Menary; Didier Swingedouw; Giovanni Sgubin; Leon Hermanson; Juliette Mignot
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 48 (3), 2021, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091307

Modelling Mediterranean heavy precipitation events at climate scale: an object-oriented evaluation of the CNRM-AROME convection-permitting regional climate model

Author(s): Caillaud C., Somot S., Alias A., Bernard-Bouissières I., Fumière Q., Laurantin O., Seity Y., Ducrocq V.
Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 56, 2021, Page(s) 1717-1752, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05558-y

The Tuning Strategy of IPSL-CM6A-LR

Author(s): Mignot J, Hourdin F, Deshayes J, et al
Published in: Journal of Advances in Modelling Earth Systems (JAMES), 2021, ISSN 1942-2466
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020ms002340

HCLIM38: a flexible regional climate model applicable for different climate zones from coarse to convection-permitting scales

Author(s): Danijel Belušić, Hylke de Vries, Andreas Dobler, Oskar Landgren, Petter Lind, David Lindstedt, Rasmus A. Pedersen, Juan Carlos Sánchez-Perrino, Erika Toivonen, Bert van Ulft, Fuxing Wang, Ulf Andrae, Yurii Batrak, Erik Kjellström, Geert Lenderink, Grigory Nikulin, Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Ernesto Rodríguez-Camino, Patrick Samuelsson, Erik van Meijgaard, Minchao Wu
Published in: Geoscientific Model Development, Issue 13/3, 2020, Page(s) 1311-1333, ISSN 1991-9603
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-13-1311-2020

Cost-benefit analysis of coastal flood defence measures in the North Adriatic Sea

Author(s): Amadio, M., Essenfelder, A.H., Bagli, S., Marzi, S., Mazzoli, P., Mysiak, J., Roberts, S.
Published in: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (EGU), Issue 22, 2022, Page(s) 265-286, ISSN 1684-9981
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-22-265-2022

Human influence strengthens the contrast between tropical wet and dry regions

Author(s): Andrew P Schurer, Andrew P Ballinger, Andrew R Friedman, Gabriele C Hegerl
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 15/10, 2020, Page(s) 104026, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab83ab

Improved models, improved information? Exploring how climate change impacts pollen, influenza, and mold in Berlin and its surroundings

Author(s): Langendijk, G.S., Rechid D. and Jacob D.
Published in: Journal of Urban Climate, Issue 43, 2022, ISSN 2212-0955
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101159

Lehner F, Deser C, Maher N, et al (2020) Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6. EARTH Syst Dyn 11:491–508. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-491-2020

Author(s): Lehner F, Deser C, Maher N, et al (2020) Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6. EARTH Syst Dyn 11:491–508. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-491-2020
Published in: Earth System Dynamics, Issue 11, 2020, Page(s) 491-508, ISSN 2190-4979
Publisher: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH
DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-491-2020

Correction to: Modelling Mediterranean heavy precipitation events at climate scale: an object-oriented evaluation of the CNRM-AROME convection-permitting regional climate model

Author(s): Caillaud C., Somot S., Alias A., Bernard-Bouissières I., Fumière Q., Laurantin O., Seity Y., Ducrocq V.
Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 58, 2022, Page(s) 625-630, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05887-6

Multi-year prediction of European summer drought conditions for the agricultural sector

Author(s): Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali, Louis-Philippe Caron, Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego, Francisco J Doblas-Reyes
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 14/12, 2019, Page(s) 124014, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab5043

Towards operational predictions of the near-term climate

Author(s): Kushnir, Yochanan; Scaife, Adam A.; Arritt, Raymond; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Boer, George; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Hawkins, Ed; Kimoto, Masahide; Kolli, Rupa Kumar; Kumar, Arun; Matei, Daniela; Matthes, Katja; Müller, Wolfgang A.; O’Kane, Terence; Perlwitz, Judith; Power, Scott; Raphael, Marilyn; Shimpo, Akihiko; Smith, Doug; Tuma, Matthias; Wu, Bo
Published in: Nature Climate Change, 9 . pp. 94-101., Issue 4, 2019, Page(s) 94-101, ISSN 1758-6798
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0359-7

A global analysis of extreme coastal water levels with implications for potential coastal overtopping

Author(s): Almar R, Ranasinghe R, Bergsma EWJ, Athanasiou P., et al
Published in: Nature Communications, Issue 12, 2021, Page(s) 1-9, ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-24008-9

Constraining Projections Using Decadal Predictions

Author(s): Daniel J. Befort, Christopher H. O'Reilly, Antje Weisheimer
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 47/18, 2020, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl087900

Trends, variability and predictive skill of the ocean heat content in North Atlantic: An analysis with the EC-Earth3 model

Author(s): Carmo-Costa, T., R. Bilbao, P. Ortega, A. Teles-Machado and E. Dutra
Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 58, 2022, Page(s) 1311-1328, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05962-y

Regional modeling of surface mass balance on the Cook Ice Cap, Kerguelen Islands (49ºS, 69ºE)

Author(s): Verfaillie, D., Favier, V., Gallée, H., Fettweis, X., Agosta, C. & Jomelli, V.
Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 53, 2019, Page(s) 5909-5925, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-04904-z

Benefits and added value of convection-permitting climate modeling over Fenno-Scandinavia

Author(s): Petter Lind, Danijel Belušić, Ole B. Christensen, Andreas Dobler, Erik Kjellström, Oskar Landgren, David Lindstedt, Dominic Matte, Rasmus A. Pedersen, Erika Toivonen, Fuxing Wang
Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 55/7-8, 2020, Page(s) 1893-1912, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05359-3

Projections of northern hemisphere extratropical climate underestimate internal variability and associated uncertainty

Author(s): Christopher O'Reilly; Daniel J. Befort; Antje Weisheimer; Antje Weisheimer; Tim Woollings; Andrew Ballinger; Gabriele C. Hegerl
Published in: Communications Earth & Environment, Issue 2, 2021, ISSN 2662-4435
Publisher: Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-021-00268-7

Atlantic Ocean influence on Middle East summer surface air temperature

Author(s): Muhammad Azhar Ehsan, Dario Nicolì, Fred Kucharski, Mansour Almazroui, Michael K. Tippett, Alessio Bellucci, Paolo Ruggieri, In-Sik Kang
Published in: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Issue 3/1, 2020, ISSN 2397-3722
Publisher: Nature Research
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-020-0109-1

The impact of the AMV on Eurasian summer hydrological cycle

Author(s): Dario Nicolì, Alessio Bellucci, Doroteaciro Iovino, Paolo Ruggieri, Silvio Gualdi
Published in: Scientific Reports, Issue 10/1, 2020, ISSN 2045-2322
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-71464-2

Multi-Model Forecast Quality Assessment of CMIP6 Decadal Predictions

Author(s): Delgado-Torres C., Donat M.G., Gonzalez-Reviriego N.
Published in: Journal of Climate, Issue 35, 2022, Page(s) 4363-4382, ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0811.1

Testing Methods of Pattern Extraction for Climate Data Using Synthetic Modes

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Publisher: American Meteorological Society
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European daily precipitation according to EURO-CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs) and high-resolution global climate models (GCMs) from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP)

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Publisher: American Meteorological Society
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Combination of decadal predictions and climate projections in time: challenges and potential solutions

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Publisher: American Geophysical Union
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How decadal predictions entered the climate services arena: an example from the agriculture sector

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AMOC Recent and Future Trends: A Crucial Role for Oceanic Resolution and Greenland Melting?

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Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 58, 2022, Page(s) 1861-1875, ISSN 0930-7575
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On the risk of abrupt changes in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in CMIP6 models.

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Potential and limitations of convection-permitting CNRM-AROME climate modelling in the French Alps

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The extremely warm summer 2018 in Sweden–set in a historical context

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Published in: Earth System Dynamics, Issue 11 (4), 2020, Page(s) 1-22, ISSN 2190-4987
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Publisher: American Geophysical Union
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An Analysis of (Sub-)Hourly Rainfall in Convection-Permitting Climate Simulations Over Southern Sweden From a User’s Perspective

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Published in: Frontiers in Earth Science, Issue 9, 2021, ISSN 2296-6463
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Estimating Regionalized Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change Over Europe by Performance-Based Weighting of CORDEX Projections

Author(s): Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland; Robrecht D. Visser; Robrecht D. Visser; Robrecht D. Visser; Peter Greve; Berny Bisselink; Lukas Brunner; Albrecht H. Weerts; Albrecht H. Weerts
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Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
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Climate change impacts on future driving and walking conditions in Finland, Norway and Sweden

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Present-day greenhouse gases could cause more frequent and longer Dust Bowl heatwaves

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Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
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Quantifying the role of the large-scale circulation on European summer precipitation change

Author(s): Hylke de Vries; Geert Lenderink; Karin van der Wiel; Erik van Meijgaard
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 2022, Page(s) 1-16, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
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Comparing interannual variability in three regional single-model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs) over Europe

Author(s): Fabian von Trentini; Emma Aalbers; Emma Aalbers; Erich M. Fischer; Ralf Ludwig
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Publisher: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH
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The forced response and decadal predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation: non-stationary and fragile skills

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Published in: Journal of Climate, 2022, ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
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Identifying robust bias adjustment methods for European extreme precipitation in a multi-model pseudo-reality setting

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Published in: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (EGU), Issue 25, 2021, Page(s) 273-290, ISSN 1607-7938
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
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Sensitivity of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and climate to tropical Indian Ocean warming

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Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 57, 2021, Page(s) 2433-2451, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
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Unraveling the choice of the north Atlantic subpolar gyre index

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Published in: Scientific reports, Issue 10, 2020, Page(s) 1005, ISSN 2045-2322
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
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Early Warning from Space for a Few Key Tipping Points in Physical, Biological, and Social-Ecological Systems

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Objective identification of potentially damaging tropical cyclones over the Western North Pacific

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Predicted Chance That Global Warming Will Temporarily Exceed 1.5 °C

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Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 45/21, 2018, Page(s) 11,895-11,903, ISSN 0094-8276
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Towards operational predictions of the near-term climate

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Published in: Nature Climate Change, Issue 9/2, 2019, Page(s) 94-101, ISSN 1758-678X
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Robust skill of decadal climate predictions

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Publisher: Springer Nature Publishing Group
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Future evolution of extreme precipitation in the Mediterranean

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Toward a European Climate Prediction System

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Publisher: American Meteorological Society
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Robustness and Scalability of Regional Climate Projections Over Europe

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Robustness of European climate projections from dynamical downscaling

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Publisher: Springer Verlag
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Analysis of Ensemble Mean Forecasts: The Blessings of High Dimensionality

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Publisher: American Meteorological Society
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A first-of-its-kind multi-model convection permitting ensemble for investigating convective phenomena over Europe and the Mediterranean

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Published in: Climate Dynamics, 2018, Page(s) 1-32, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
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Towards reliable extreme weather and climate event attribution

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Published in: Nature Communications, 10, Issue 5, 2019, Page(s) 1-7, ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
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A Framework to Determine the Limits of Achievable Skill for Interannual to Decadal Climate Predictions

Author(s): Yiling Liu, Markus G. Donat, Andréa S. Taschetto, Francisco J. Doblas‐Reyes, Lisa V. Alexander, Matthew H. England
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Publisher: American Geophysical Union
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Bias adjustment and ensemble recalibration methods for seasonal forecasting: a comprehensive intercomparison using the C3S dataset

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Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 02-2019, 2019, Page(s) 1-19, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
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Calibration and combination of monthly near-surface temperature and precipitation predictions over Europe

Author(s): Luis R. L. Rodrigues, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Caio A. S. Coelho
Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 02-2019, 2019, Page(s) 1-16, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
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Winter tourism under climate change in the Pyrenees and the French Alps: relevance of snowmaking as a technical adaptation

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Published in: The Cryosphere, Issue 13/4, 2019, Page(s) 1325-1347, ISSN 1994-0424
Publisher: European Geoscience Union
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Investigating the Effects of Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures on the Wind Drought of 2015 Over the United States

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Publisher: American Geophysical Union
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Characterization of the near surface wind speed distribution at global scale: ERA-Interim reanalysis and ECMWF seasonal forecasting system 4

Author(s): Raül Marcos, Nube González-Reviriego, Verónica Torralba, Albert Soret, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 52/5-6, 2019, Page(s) 3307-3319, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
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Skilful forecasting of global fire activity using seasonal climate predictions

Author(s): Marco Turco, Sonia Jerez, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Amir AghaKouchak, Maria Carmen Llasat, Antonello Provenzale
Published in: Nature Communications, Issue 9/1, 2018, Page(s) 1-9, ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
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Climate controls on snow reliability in French Alps ski resorts

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Published in: Scientific Reports, Issue 9/1, 2019, ISSN 2045-2322
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
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The biggest unknowns related to decadal prediction: what 50 experts think are the 5 major knowledge gaps

Author(s): Dragana Bojovic, Roberto Bilbao, Leandro B. Díaz, Markus Donat, Pablo Ortega, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali, Marta Terrado, Deborah Verfaillie, Francisco Doblas-Reyes
Published in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2019, ISSN 0003-0007
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
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Quantifying uncertainty in European climate projections using combined performance-independence weighting

Author(s): Lukas Brunner, Ruth Lorenz, Marius Zumwald, Reto Knutti
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 14/12, 2019, Page(s) 124010, ISSN 1748-9326
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Decadal predictability of North Atlantic blocking and the NAO

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Published in: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Issue 3/1, 2020, ISSN 2397-3722
Publisher: Springer Nature
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Uncertainties in projections of sandy beach erosion due to sea level rise: an analysis at the European scale

Author(s): Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Alessio Giardino, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Jaap Kwadijk
Published in: Scientific Reports, Issue 10/1, 2020, Page(s) 11895, ISSN 2045-2322
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
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"Historical and future changes in global flood magnitude – evidence from a model–observation investigation"

Author(s): Hong Xuan Do, Fang Zhao, Seth Westra, Michael Leonard, Lukas Gudmundsson, Julien Eric Stanislas Boulange, Jinfeng Chang, Philippe Ciais, Dieter Gerten, Simon N. Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Tobias Stacke, Camelia-Eliza Telteu, Yoshihide Wada
Published in: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Issue 24/3, 2020, Page(s) 1543-1564, ISSN 1607-7938
Publisher: European Geophysical Union
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Using the Budyko Framework for Calibrating a Global Hydrological Model

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Publisher: American Geophysical Union
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Europe-wide precipitation projections at convection permitting scale with the Unified Model

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Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 55/3-4, 2020, Page(s) 409-428, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
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Skillful decadal prediction of unforced Southern European summer temperature variations

Author(s): Borchert, L.F., V. Koul, V., M.B. Menary, D.J. Befort, D. Swingedouw, G. Sgubin and J. Mignot
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 16 (104017), 2021, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
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Differences in representation of extreme precipitation events in two high resolution models

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Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 57, 2021, Page(s) 3029-3043, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
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Comparing Methods to Constrain Future European Climate Projections Using a Consistent Framework

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Publisher: American Meteorological Society
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Multi-annual prediction of drought and heat stress to support decision making in the wheat sector

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Published in: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Issue 4(1), 2021, Page(s) 1-9, ISSN 2397-3722
Publisher: MDPI
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Large discrepancies in summer climate change over Europe as projected by global and regional climate models: causes and consequences

Author(s): Julien Boé; Samuel Somot; Lola Corre; Pierre Nabat
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Understanding the Distribution of Multimodel Ensembles

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How extreme could the near term evolution of the Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall be?

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Constraining human contributions to observed warming since the pre-industrial period

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Non-Hydrostatic Regcm4 (Regcm4-NH): Evaluation of Precipitation Statistics at the Convection-Permitting Scale over Different Domains

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Quasi‐Stationary Intense Rainstorms Spread Across Europe Under Climate Change

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Seasonal Forecasts of the Twentieth Century

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Seasonal predictability of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation from a jet stream perspective

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Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 46, 2019, ISSN 0094-8276
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Projections and uncertainties of sandy beach loss due to sea level rise at the European scale

Author(s): Athanasiou, P., van Dongeren, A., Giardino, A., Vousdoukas, M., Ranasinghe, R., and Kwadijk, J.
Published in: EGU General Assembly 2020, Issue EGU2020-10149, 2020, ISSN 1866-3508
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Users cognitive load: A key aspect to successfully communicate visual climate information

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Evaluation and Expected Changes of Summer Precipitation at Convection Permitting Scale with COSMO-CLM over Alpine Space

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How does the CMIP6 ensemble change the picture for European climate projections

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Scaling and responses of extreme hourly precipitation in three climate experiments with a convection-permitting model

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Making climate projections conditional on historical observations

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Towards useful decadal climate services

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Systematic investigation of skill opportunities in decadal prediction of air temperature over Europe

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Calibrating large-ensemble European climate projections using observational data

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Tailoring circulation type classification outcomes

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The transient sensitivity of sea level rise

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Internal variability versus multi‐physics uncertainty in a regional climate model

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Towards consistent observational constraints in climate predictions and projections

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A new spatially distributed added value index for regional climate models: the EURO-CORDEX and the CORDEX-CORE highest resolution ensembles

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Advances in reconstructing the AMOC using sea surface observations of salinity

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Assessment of the spatio-temporal variability of the added value on precipitation of convection-permitting simulation over the Iberian Peninsula using the RegIPSL regional earth system mode

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Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 59, 2022, Page(s) 471-498, ISSN 0930-7575
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The aridity index under global warming

Author(s): Greve, P., Roderick, M. L., Ukkola, A. M., Wada, Y.
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 14(12), 2021, ISSN 1748-9326
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Linking Ocean Forcing and Atmospheric Interactions to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in MPI‐ESM1.2

Author(s): J. Oelsmann, L. Borchert, R. Hand, J. Baehr, J. H. Jungclaus
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 47/10, 2020, ISSN 0094-8276
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Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclones over the North Atlantic and Western North Pacific

Author(s): Daniel J. Befort; Kevin I. Hodges; Antje Weisheimer
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Decadal Predictions of the Probability of Occurrence for Warm Summer Temperature Extremes

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WMO global annual to decadal climate update: a prediction for 2021–25

Author(s): Leon Hermanson; Doug Smith; Melissa Seabrook; Roberto Bilbao; Francisco Doblas-Reyes; Etienne Tourigny; Vladimir Lapin; Viatcheslav V. Kharin; William J. Merryfield; Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso; Panos Athanasiadis; Dario Nicoli; Silvio Gualdi; Nick Dunstone; Rosie Eade; Adam Scaife; Mark Collier; Terence O’Kane; Vassili Kitsios; Paul Sandery; Klaus Pankatz; Barbara Früh; Holger Pohlmann; Wolfgang M
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Reduced global warming from CMIP6 projections when weighting models by performance and independence

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The Weather Roulette: a game to communicate the usefulness of probabilistic climate predictions

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Using statistical downscaling to assess skill of decadal predictions

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The effects of bias, drift, and trends in calculating anomalies for evaluating skill of seasonal-to-decadal initialized climate predictions

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Published in: Climate Dynamics, 2022, ISSN 0930-7575
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Extreme windstorms and sting jets in convection-permitting climate simulations over Europe

Author(s): Manning C, Kendon EJ, Fowler HJ, et al
Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 58, 2022, Page(s) 2387-2404, ISSN 0930-7575
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The influence of ENSO events on the stratospheric QBO in a multi-model ensemble

Author(s): Serva, Federico; Cagnazzo, Chiara; Christiansen, Bo; Yang, Shuting
Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 54, 2020, Page(s) 2561–2575, ISSN 0930-7575
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Reconstructing climatic modes of variability from proxy records using ClimIndRec version 1.0

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Extreme sub-hourly precipitation intensities scale close to the Clausius-Clapeyron rate over Europe

Author(s): Vergara-Temprado, J., N. Ban and C. Schär
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 48, 2021, ISSN 0094-8276
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Subtle influence of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) on seasonal sea surface temperature (SST) hindcast skill in the North Atlantic

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Regional Climate Model emulator based on deep learning: concept and first evaluation of a novel hybrid downscaling approach

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Global distribution of nearshore slopes with implications for coastal retreat

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Published in: Earth System Science Data, Issue 11/4, 2019, Page(s) 1515-1529, ISSN 1866-3516
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Evaluation of the near-surface wind field over the Adriatic region: local wind characteristics in the convection-permitting model ensemble

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Long range predictability of the length of day and extratropical surface climate

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Towards European wide maps of climatologic homogeneous regions for rainfall

Author(s): Zander MJ, Sperna Weiland FC, and Weerts AH
Published in: Geophysical Research Abstracts, Issue Proceedings of the EGU General Assembly 2019, vol 21,, 2019
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Uncertainty analysis in land loss prediction due to sea level rise, for sandy systems, at the European scale

Author(s): Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Alessio Giardino, Michalis Vousdoukas, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Jaap Kwadijk
Published in: Geophysical Research Abstracts, Proceedings of the EGU General Assembly 2019, Issue Vol. 21, 2019
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Overview of near-term decadal climate prediction and its applications: Technical note

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How to better predict North Atlantic’s atmospheric pressure patterns

Author(s): Based on paper by Athanasiou, P., van Dongeren, A., Giardino, A., Vousdoukas, M., Gaytan-Aguilar, S., and Ranasinghe, R.
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