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Advanced Prediction in Polar regions and beyond: Modelling, observing system design and LInkages associated with ArctiC ClimATE change

Risultati finali

Provision of guidance material and tools for effective data management

Guidance material (best practises) and tools enabling the partners to properly document and format their data in order to facilitate long term data preservation including life cycle management of data, data publication and data sharing

Report on the application of the fully coupled SCM to test cases based on Arctic YOPP IOPs

A number of test cases will be defined and run in coordinated SCM experiments with the aim to isolate errors in the representation of these parameterized processes and their influence on the surface energy fluxes. These will be designed based on existing past observations (e.g. SHEBA, AOE, ASCOS, ACSE, Eureka, Barrow and IAOOS buoys), LES cases and the coming intensive observing periods during YOPP

Provide report from US CLIVAR Working Group meeting including recommendations for adjustments to the WP3 part of the APPLICATE numerical experimentation plan

Agree on a joint clustering concept, including an agreement on coordinated numerical experimentation, at the next meeting of the US CLIVAR Working Group that is tentatively scheduled for 1-3 February 2017 in the US

Post Processing Environment

Set up of a dedicated post-processing environment to support analysis of multiple datasets and creation of new combined datasets.

Initial assessment of the added value of observations in existing long time-series datasets, also providing guidance for dedicated observing system experiments

Assessment of the added value of observations in existing datasets and that provides guidance for future reanalyses, but also for the numerical experiments to be performed in Task 4.2 and the YOPP experiment/reanalysis preparation works in Task 4.4.

Model assessment plan

Detailed plan that outlines the model assessment strategy of APPLICATE exploiting the concept of metrics and diagnostics, and utilizing comprehensive sets of observational data.

Recommendations for the design of the future Arctic observing system

Analysis of observational gaps and identification of shortcomings in current data assimilation methods and models limiting predictive skill from short/medium-to-seasonal time scales

Report on integrated added-value from APPLICATE on weather and climate prediction and projection

Evaluation of progress achieved within APPLICATE

Final report on coordinated multi-model assessment of seasonal to inter-annual impact of Arctic sea ice decline on lower latitudes, including influence of background state and pattern of anomalies

Comprehensive synthesis report that summarizes the main finding regarding the impact of Arctic climate change on the weather and climate of the Northern Hemisphere.

Draft clustering plan

Plan that details the clustering strategy and will be developed at the beginning of the project

Recommendations on the coupling methodology in prediction and climate models

Recommendations based on the experience gained in WP2 Task 2.2.1 from integrating the SCM-physics in the IFS

Report on the influence of the Arctic atmosphere on mid-latitude weather and climate and role for mid- latitude prediction

Influence of the Arctic atmosphere on mid-latitude weather and climate studied from a prediction perspective

First report on the content and extent of the joint activities with collaborators from the USA and Canada

First report on the content and extent of the joint activities with collaborators from the USA and Canada.

Report on coordinated coupled multi-model assessment of the seasonal to inter-annual impact of Arctic sea ice decline on lower latitudes

Assessment of atmospheric and oceanic linkages on seasonal to inter-annual time scales

Report on individual impacts of improved process-representation, treatment of snow, ensemble generation and increased resolution on the weather and climate prediction performance

Assessment of the added value of various individual model developments (WP2) on the forecast quality on daily to seasonal time scales

Third report on the content and extent of the joint activities with collaborators from the USA and Canada
Report on potential for emergent constraints to reduce uncertainty in projections of Arctic climate and linkages to Northern Hemisphere circulation

Synthesis of the results on emergent constraints

Final evaluation of initialization experiments investigating the impact of novel observations in the coupled atmosphere–land–ocean–sea ice system

Final report recommending the initialization strategy

Training plan

Plan defining all the training activities and their time of execution

Provide draft concept for a joint YOPP-APPLICATE summer school including a list of possible co- sponsors

Concept outlining the possibility for aligning the APPLICATE summer school with that planned for YOPP

Invite coordinators of relevant projects to the YOPP planning meetings

Invitation of all coordinators of existing activities and those known to have submitted related proposals to the International Coordination Office (ICO) for Polar Prediction.

Invite coordinators of BG-09 and other BG-10 projects to become members of external advisory board in APPLICATE

Coordinators of BG-09 and other BG-10 projects will be invited to become members of the external advisory board in APPLICATE

Second summary report of the stakeholder interaction activities

Second summary report of the stakeholder interaction activities including the list stakeholders reached, what feedback was received and for the benefit of which WP.

Start with the archiving and dissemination of YOPP Analysis and Forecast Dataset

YOPP Analysis and Forecast Dataset eventually containing two full years (mid 2017—mid 2019) that are aligned with the YOPP period

Evaluation of the contribution of the Arctic observing system to forecast skill from short/medium-to-seasonal time scales

Assessment of the numerical experimentation output from both idealized pseudo-observing system and actual data-denial experiments.

Report on the strengths and limitations of state-of-the-art weather and climate prediction systems

Summary of strengths and limitations of current forecasting systems

Assessment of CMIP5 and CMIP6 experiments including recommendations for model development activities in WP2

Baseline assessment for model developments in WP2 and inform the numerical experiments in WP3

Update the clustering plan to reflect specific clustering strategy with projects funded under H2020- BG09-2016 and BG10-2016

Development of a joint cooperation strategy and update of the clustering plan

Final assessment of the outcomes of the training experience

A report assessing the lessons learnt from summer school and online course will contribute to the improvement of these training tools into future APECS teaching strategy

Report on coordinated coupled multi-model assessment of the decadal and longer impact of Arctic sea ice decline on lower latitudes

Impact of Arctic sea ice decline on longer time scales, especially for the ocean

Communication and dissemination plan

Full framework detailing target audiences, communication tools and channels, key messages and practical information such as branding project style, logo, guide, templates, etc.

Report on the impact of increased resolution on the simulated Arctic Ocean circulation and on Arctic-Atlantic and Arctic-Pacific oceanic linkages

Results from exploring the role of enhanced resolutions by using different methodologies (unstructures meshed, nesting, globally enhanced resolution) will be synthesized.

Data catalogue and services

Definition of output fields, the definition of data structures to accommodate this data, the definition of the data server layout, and the development of a suite that will reformat data into the YOPP convention, its archival in the ECMWF meteorological archiving system (MARS), and the establishment of a data catalogue on the data server

Synthesis on priorities for future model developments for coupled models

Synthesis report on priorities for future model developments in coupled models issued towards the end of the project

Report on the synthesis of heat budget approaches for the Arctic

Synthesis of the two heat budget approaches to inform about the mechanism determining Arctic climate variability and change.

Final report on model developments and their evaluation in coupled mode

Interim report, that includes aspects related to: (i) changes in the various components of the Arctic surface energy budget (radiative, turbulent); (ii) changes in the transfer of momentum from the atmosphere to the ocean; (iii) the overall realism of the simulated climate system; (iv) effects on the Arctic Ocean circulation; and (v) changes in the Arctic climate sensitivity in the +1%CO2 simulation.

Update the clustering plan to reflect specific joint clustering activities with projects funded under earlier H2020 and FP7 calls

Agreement on common clustering activities with other projects and update clustering plan accordingly

Interim evaluation of initialization experiments investigating the impact of novel observations in the coupled atmosphere–land–ocean–sea ice system

Interim report recommending the initialization strategy to be used in WP5

First summary report of stakeholder interaction activities

First summary report of the stakeholder interaction activities including the list stakeholders reached, what feedback was received and for the benefit of which WP.

Second report on the content and extent of the joint activities with collaborators from the USA and Canada
User-engagement plan

Identification of key, primary and secondary stakeholders, their contact details and their level of use of weather and climate information, effective mechanisms for engaging users in the implementation of the project, Key performance indicators (KPI) for each mechanism, etc.

Recommendations on the inclusion of APPLICATE model enhancements in NWP models

Synthesis report based on the tests run with SCM and climate models, in which the inclusion in NWP systems of selected model enhancements developed during APPLICATE will be discussed. This report will guide dedicated tests carried on within WP5 with participating NWP systems.

Report on the growth of systematic model error across time scales

Synthesis of the understanding of the processes that lead to common model errors across time scales.

Synthesis report on priorities for future forecasting system development

Synthesis report to be published in a high-level journal

Report on coordinated atmosphere-only multi-model assessment of the seasonal to inter-annual impact of Arctic sea ice decline on lower latitudes

Assessment of the roles of atmospheric pathways and of ocean-atmosphere coupling

Dissemination materials 5

Update/revision of material in D7.8

Dissemination materials 1

Material will be made available in different versions to accommodate to the various levels of experience in weather and climate and needs of those audiences. Materials will include: brochure, leaflets, roll-ups, factsheets etc.

Dissemination materials 4

Update/revision of material in D7.7

Website, incl. online tool for end-users feedback

A website will be designed to contain and offer the project description and its various outputs like public reports, general information, and news and dissemination material. The website will be initially set up to identify the project (providing visual identity materials and templates in a password protected partners area) and promote early engagement with other EU projects, international initiatives and communities

Launch of a web portal providing an overview of the project data catalouge

Devolment and launch of a web portal, which provides an overview of the projects data catalogue.

Dissemination materials 3

Update/revision of material in D7.6

Dissemination matrials 2

Update/revision of material in D7.5

Provision of all 30 FrostByte videos of APPLICATE and APECS websites

Provision of all 30 FrostByte videos on APPLICATE and APECS websites.

Data management plan

Data management plan providing a detailed outline of APPLICATE data management strategy, including technical details and time lines

Simulation carried out with the models available at the end of APPLICATE (Task 5.4) and following the protocol described in Task 5.1, completed and made available within the consortium

Simulation carried out with the models available at the end of APPLICATE (Task 5.4) and following the protocol described in Task 5.1, completed and made available within the consortium.

Contributions to the SIPN activities through sea ice predictions produced with the forecast systems available at the end of APPLICATE

Contributions to the SIPN activities through sea ice predictions produced with the forecast systems available at the end of APPLICATE.

Demonstrator of a fully coupled SCM

A novel Single Column Model (SCM) framework will be developed. The SCM will extend from the deep ocean, include the sea ice and snow, and continue through the atmosphere.

Pubblicazioni

Eddy Kinetic Energy in the Arctic Ocean From a Global Simulation With a 1‐km Arctic

Autori: Qiang Wang, Nikolay V. Koldunov, Sergey Danilov, Dmitry Sidorenko, Claudia Wekerle, Patrick Scholz, Igor L. Bashmachnikov, Thomas Jung
Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, Numero 47/14, 2020, ISSN 0094-8276
Editore: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl088550

ECMWF global coupled atmosphere, ocean and sea-ice dataset for the Year of Polar Prediction 2017–2020

Autori: Peter Bauer, Irina Sandu, Linus Magnusson, Richard Mladek, Manuel Fuentes
Pubblicato in: Scientific Data, Numero 7/1, 2020, ISSN 2052-4463
Editore: ECMWF
DOI: 10.1038/s41597-020-00765-y

Central Arctic weather forecasting: Confronting the ECMWF IFS with observations from the Arctic Ocean 2018 expedition

Autori: Michael Tjernström, Gunilla Svensson, Linus Magnusson, Ian M. Brooks, John Prytherch, Jutta Vüllers, Gillian Young
Pubblicato in: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Numero 147/735, 2021, Pagina/e 1278-1299, ISSN 0035-9009
Editore: Royal Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1002/qj.3971

Training Early-Career Polar Weather and Climate Researchers

Autori: Fiona Tummon, Jonathan Day, Gunilla Svensson
Pubblicato in: Eos, Numero 99, 2018, ISSN 2324-9250
Editore: AGU
DOI: 10.1029/2018EO103475

An inter-comparison of the mass budget of the Arctic sea ice in CMIP6 models

Autori: Ann Keen, Ed Blockley, David A. Bailey, Jens Boldingh Debernard, Mitchell Bushuk, Steve Delhaye, David Docquier, Daniel Feltham, François Massonnet, Siobhan O'Farrell, Leandro Ponsoni, José M. Rodriguez, David Schroeder, Neil Swart, Takahiro Toyoda, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Martin Vancoppenolle, Klaus Wyser
Pubblicato in: The Cryosphere, Numero 15/2, 2021, Pagina/e 951-982, ISSN 1994-0424
Editore: EGU
DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-951-2021

An anatomy of Arctic sea ice forecast biases in the seasonal prediction system with EC-Earth

Autori: Rubén Cruz-García, Pablo Ortega, Virginie Guemas, Juan C. Acosta Navarro, François Massonnet, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, Numero 56/5-6, 2021, Pagina/e 1799-1813, ISSN 0930-7575
Editore: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05560-4

Two Leading Modes of Wintertime Atmospheric Circulation Drive the Recent Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia Temperature Pattern

Autori: Kunhui Ye, Gabriele Messori
Pubblicato in: Journal of Climate, Numero 33/13, 2020, Pagina/e 5565-5587, ISSN 0894-8755
Editore: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-0403.1

Verification of Solid Precipitation Forecasts from Numerical Weather Prediction Models in Norway

Autori: Morten Køltzow, Barbara Casati, Thomas Haiden, Teresa Valkonen
Pubblicato in: Weather and Forecasting, Numero 35/6, 2020, Pagina/e 2279-2292, ISSN 0882-8156
Editore: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/waf-d-20-0060.1

Evaluation of a sub-kilometre NWP system in an Arctic fjord-valley system in winter

Autori: Teresa Valkonen, Patrick Stoll, Yurii Batrak, Morten Køltzow, Thea Maria Schneider, Emmy E. Stigter, Ola B. Aashamar, Eivind Støylen, Marius O. Jonassen
Pubblicato in: Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, Numero 72/1, 2020, Pagina/e 1-21, ISSN 1600-0870
Editore: Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
DOI: 10.1080/16000870.2020.1838181

Summer predictions of Arctic sea ice edge in multi-model seasonal re-forecasts

Autori: Lauriane Batté, Ilona Välisuo, Matthieu Chevallier, Juan C. Acosta Navarro, Pablo Ortega, Doug Smith
Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, Numero 54/11-12, 2020, Pagina/e 5013-5029, ISSN 0930-7575
Editore: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05273-8

An assessment of ten ocean reanalyses in the polar regions

Autori: Petteri Uotila, Hugues Goosse, Keith Haines, Matthieu Chevallier, Antoine Barthélemy, Clément Bricaud, Jim Carton, Neven Fučkar, Gilles Garric, Doroteaciro Iovino, Frank Kauker, Meri Korhonen, Vidar S. Lien, Marika Marnela, François Massonnet, Davi Mignac, K. Andrew Peterson, Remon Sadikni, Li Shi, Steffen Tietsche, Takahiro Toyoda, Jiping Xie, Zhaoru Zhang
Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, 2018, ISSN 0930-7575
Editore: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4242-z

Predictability of Arctic sea ice on weather time scales

Autori: M. Mohammadi-Aragh, H. F. Goessling, M. Losch, N. Hutter, T. Jung
Pubblicato in: Scientific Reports, Numero 8/1, 2018, ISSN 2045-2322
Editore: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-24660-0

Growing Land-Sea Temperature Contrast and the Intensification of Arctic Cyclones

Autori: Jonathan J. Day, Kevin I. Hodges
Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, Numero 45/8, 2018, Pagina/e 3673-3681, ISSN 0094-8276
Editore: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2018GL077587

Arctic sea-ice change tied to its mean state through thermodynamic processes

Autori: François Massonnet, Martin Vancoppenolle, Hugues Goosse, David Docquier, Thierry Fichefet, Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth
Pubblicato in: Nature Climate Change, Numero 8/7, 2018, Pagina/e 599-603, ISSN 1758-678X
Editore: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0204-z

Bright Prospects for Arctic Sea Ice Prediction on Subseasonal Time Scales

Autori: Lorenzo Zampieri, Helge F. Goessling, Thomas Jung
Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, Numero 45/18, 2018, Pagina/e 9731-9738, ISSN 0094-8276
Editore: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2018GL079394

Predictability of Antarctic Sea Ice Edge on Subseasonal Time Scales

Autori: Lorenzo Zampieri, Helge F. Goessling, Thomas Jung
Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, Numero 46/16, 2019, Pagina/e 9719-9727, ISSN 0094-8276
Editore: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2019GL084096

Induced surface fluxes: a new framework for attributing Arctic sea ice volume balance biases to specific model errors

Autori: Alex West, Mat Collins, Ed Blockley, Jeff Ridley, Alejandro Bodas-Salcedo
Pubblicato in: The Cryosphere, Numero 13/7, 2019, Pagina/e 2001-2022, ISSN 1994-0424
Editore: EGU
DOI: 10.5194/tc-13-2001-2019

Impact of a Multi‐Layer Snow Scheme on Near‐Surface Weather Forecasts

Autori: Gabriele Arduini, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Emanuel Dutra, Jonathan J. Day, Irina Sandu, Souhail Boussetta, Thomas Haiden
Pubblicato in: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Numero 11/12, 2019, Pagina/e 4687-4710, ISSN 1942-2466
Editore: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2019ms001725

How Strong Is Influence of the Tropics and Midlatitudes on the Arctic Atmospheric Circulation and Climate Change?

Autori: Kunhui Ye, Thomas Jung
Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, Numero 46/9, 2019, Pagina/e 4942-4952, ISSN 0094-8276
Editore: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2019gl082391

On the discretization of the ice thickness distribution in the NEMO3.6-LIM3 global ocean–sea ice model

Autori: François Massonnet, Antoine Barthélemy, Koffi Worou, Thierry Fichefet, Martin Vancoppenolle, Clément Rousset, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro
Pubblicato in: Geoscientific Model Development, Numero 12/8, 2019, Pagina/e 3745-3758, ISSN 1991-9603
Editore: European Geosciences Union
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-12-3745-2019

December 2016: Linking the Lowest Arctic Sea-Ice Extent on Record with the Lowest European Precipitation Event on Record

Autori: Juan C. Acosta Navarro, Pablo Ortega, Javier García-Serrano, Virginie Guemas, Etienne Tourigny, Rubén Cruz-García, François Massonnet, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
Pubblicato in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Numero 100/1, 2019, Pagina/e S43-S48, ISSN 0003-0007
Editore: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0097.1

Increased Arctic influence on the midlatitude flow during Scandinavian Blocking episodes

Autori: Jonathan J. Day, Irina Sandu, Linus Magnusson, Mark J. Rodwell, Heather Lawrence, Niels Bormann, Thomas Jung
Pubblicato in: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Numero 145/725, 2019, Pagina/e 3846-3862, ISSN 0035-9009
Editore: Royal Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1002/qj.3673

An NWP Model Intercomparison of Surface Weather Parameters in the European Arctic during the Year of Polar Prediction Special Observing Period Northern Hemisphere 1

Autori: Morten Køltzow, Barbara Casati, Eric Bazile, Thomas Haiden, Teresa Valkonen
Pubblicato in: Weather and Forecasting, Numero 34/4, 2019, Pagina/e 959-983, ISSN 0882-8156
Editore: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-19-0003.1

An Improved Double-Gaussian Closure for the Subgrid Vertical Velocity Probability Distribution Function

Autori: A. C. Fitch
Pubblicato in: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Numero 76/1, 2019, Pagina/e 285-304, ISSN 0022-4928
Editore: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jas-d-18-0149.1

Investigating future changes in the volume budget of the Arctic sea ice in a coupled climate model

Autori: Ann Keen, Ed Blockley
Pubblicato in: The Cryosphere, Numero 12/9, 2018, Pagina/e 2855-2868, ISSN 1994-0424
Editore: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/tc-12-2855-2018

A probabilistic verification score for contours: Methodology and application to Arctic ice-edge forecasts

Autori: H. F. Goessling, T. Jung
Pubblicato in: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Numero 144/712, 2018, Pagina/e 735-743, ISSN 0035-9009
Editore: Royal Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1002/qj.3242

Statistical predictability of the Arctic sea ice volume anomaly: identifying predictors and optimal sampling locations

Autori: Ponsoni, Leandro; Massonnet, François; Docquier, David; Van Achter, Guillian; Fichefet, Thierry
Pubblicato in: The Cryosphere Discussions, Numero 1, 2019, ISSN 1994-0424
Editore: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/tc-2019-257

The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) contribution to CMIP6: investigating the causes and consequences of polar amplification

Autori: Doug M. Smith, James A. Screen, Clara Deser, Judah Cohen, John C. Fyfe, Javier García-Serrano, Thomas Jung, Vladimir Kattsov, Daniela Matei, Rym Msadek, Yannick Peings, Michael Sigmond, Jinro Ukita, Jin-Ho Yoon, Xiangdong Zhang
Pubblicato in: Geoscientific Model Development, Numero 12/3, 2019, Pagina/e 1139-1164, ISSN 1991-9603
Editore: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-12-1139-2019

Fast EVP Solutions in a High‐Resolution Sea Ice Model

Autori: Nikolay V. Koldunov, Sergey Danilov, Dmitry Sidorenko, Nils Hutter, Martin Losch, Helge Goessling, Natalja Rakowsky, Patrick Scholz, Dmitry Sein, Qiang Wang, Thomas Jung
Pubblicato in: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Numero 11/5, 2019, Pagina/e 1269-1284, ISSN 1942-2466
Editore: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2018MS001485

Programming as a soft skill for project managers: How to have a computer take over some of your work

Autori: Nikolay V. Koldunov, Luisa Cristini
Pubblicato in: Advances in Geosciences, Numero 45, 2018, Pagina/e 295-303, ISSN 1680-7359
Editore: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/adgeo-45-295-2018

Preface to the special issue: Towards improving understanding and prediction of Arctic change and its linkage with Eurasian mid-latitude weather and climate

Autori: Xiangdong Zhang, Thomas Jung, Muyin Wang, Yong Luo, Tido Semmler, Andrew Orr
Pubblicato in: Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Numero 35/1, 2018, Pagina/e 1-4, ISSN 0256-1530
Editore: Chinese Academy of Science
DOI: 10.1007/s00376-017-7004-7

Snow in the changing sea-ice systems

Autori: Webster, Melinda; Gerland, Sebastian; Holland, Marika; Hunke, Elizabeth; Kwok, Ron; Lecomte, Olivier; Massom, Robert; Perovich, Don; Sturm, Matthew
Pubblicato in: Nature Climate Change, Numero 1, 2018, ISSN 1758-6798
Editore: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.3565645

Robustness and drivers of the Northern Hemisphere extratropical atmospheric circulation response to a CO$$_2$$2-induced warming in CNRM-CM6-1

Autori: Thomas Oudar, Julien Cattiaux, Hervé Douville, Olivier Geoffroy, David Saint-Martin, Romain Roehrig
Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, Numero 54/3-4, 2020, Pagina/e 2267-2285, ISSN 0930-7575
Editore: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-05113-4

Improving Met Office seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice using assimilation of CryoSat-2 thickness

Autori: Edward W. Blockley, K. Andrew Peterson
Pubblicato in: The Cryosphere, Numero 12/11, 2018, Pagina/e 3419-3438, ISSN 1994-0424
Editore: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/tc-12-3419-2018

Atmospheric Response to Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice: The Importance of Ocean–Atmosphere Coupling and the Background State

Autori: Doug M. Smith, Nick J. Dunstone, Adam A. Scaife, Emma K. Fiedler, Dan Copsey, Steven C. Hardiman
Pubblicato in: Journal of Climate, Numero 30/12, 2017, Pagina/e 4547-4565, ISSN 0894-8755
Editore: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0564.1

Project and Community Management in Polar Sciences – Challenges and Opportunities

Autori: Kirstin Werner, Yulia Zaika, Alexey K. Pavlov, Sven Lidström, Allen Pope, Renuka Badhe, Marlen Brückner, Luisa Cristini
Pubblicato in: Advances in Geosciences, Numero 46, 2019, Pagina/e 25-43, ISSN 1680-7359
Editore: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/adgeo-46-25-2019

The Influences of the Arctic Troposphere on the Midlatitude Climate Variability and the Recent Eurasian Cooling

Autori: Kunhui Ye, Thomas Jung, Tido Semmler
Pubblicato in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Numero 123/18, 2018, Pagina/e 10,162-10,184, ISSN 2169-897X
Editore: AGU
DOI: 10.1029/2018JD028980

Influence of a Salt Plume Parameterization in a Coupled Climate Model

Autori: D. Sidorenko, N. V. Koldunov, Q. Wang, S. Danilov, H. F. Goessling, O. Gurses, P. Scholz, D. V. Sein, E. Volodin, C. Wekerle, T. Jung
Pubblicato in: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Numero 10/9, 2018, Pagina/e 2357-2373, ISSN 1942-2466
Editore: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2018MS001291

An assessment of regional sea ice predictability in the Arctic ocean

Autori: Rubén Cruz-García, Virginie Guemas, Matthieu Chevallier, François Massonnet
Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, Numero 53/1-2, 2019, Pagina/e 427-440, ISSN 0930-7575
Editore: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4592-6

Impact of model resolution on Arctic sea ice and North Atlantic Ocean heat transport

Autori: David Docquier, Jeremy P. Grist, Malcolm J. Roberts, Christopher D. Roberts, Tido Semmler, Leandro Ponsoni, François Massonnet, Dmitry Sidorenko, Dmitry V. Sein, Doroteaciro Iovino, Alessio Bellucci, Thierry Fichefet
Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, Numero 53/7-8, 2019, Pagina/e 4989-5017, ISSN 0930-7575
Editore: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-04840-y

Evaluation of FESOM2.0 Coupled to ECHAM6.3: Preindustrial and HighResMIP Simulations

Autori: D. Sidorenko, H.F. Goessling, N.V. Koldunov, P. Scholz, S. Danilov, D. Barbi, W. Cabos, O. Gurses, S. Harig, C. Hinrichs, S. Juricke, G. Lohmann, M. Losch, L. Mu, T. Rackow, N. Rakowsky, D. Sein, T. Semmler, X. Shi, C. Stepanek, J. Streffing, Q. Wang, C. Wekerle, H. Yang, T. Jung
Pubblicato in: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Numero 11/11, 2019, Pagina/e 3794-3815, ISSN 1942-2466
Editore: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2019MS001696

On the timescales and length scales of the Arctic sea ice thickness anomalies: a study based on 14 reanalyses

Autori: Leandro Ponsoni, François Massonnet, Thierry Fichefet, Matthieu Chevallier, David Docquier
Pubblicato in: The Cryosphere, Numero 13/2, 2019, Pagina/e 521-543, ISSN 1994-0424
Editore: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/tc-13-521-2019

The Benefits of Global High Resolution for Climate Simulation: Process Understanding and the Enabling of Stakeholder Decisions at the Regional Scale

Autori: M. J. Roberts, P. L. Vidale, C. Senior, H. T. Hewitt, C. Bates, S. Berthou, P. Chang, H. M. Christensen, S. Danilov, M.-E. Demory, S. M. Griffies, R. Haarsma, T. Jung, G. Martin, S. Minobe, T. Ringler, M. Satoh, R. Schiemann, E. Scoccimarro, G. Stephens, M. F. Wehner
Pubblicato in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Numero 99/11, 2018, Pagina/e 2341-2359, ISSN 0003-0007
Editore: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-15-00320.1

Climate Models as Guidance for the Design of Observing Systems: the Case of Polar Climate and Sea Ice Prediction

Autori: François Massonnet
Pubblicato in: Current Climate Change Reports, Numero 5/4, 2019, Pagina/e 334-344, ISSN 2198-6061
Editore: Springer
DOI: 10.1007/s40641-019-00151-w

An EC-Earth coupled atmosphere–ocean single-column model (AOSCM.v1_EC-Earth3) for studying coupled marine and polar processes

Autori: Kerstin Hartung, Gunilla Svensson, Hamish Struthers, Anna-Lena Deppenmeier, Wilco Hazeleger
Pubblicato in: Geoscientific Model Development, Numero 11/10, 2018, Pagina/e 4117-4137, ISSN 1991-9603
Editore: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-11-4117-2018

ESM-SnowMIP: assessing snow models and quantifying snow-related climate feedbacks

Autori: Gerhard Krinner, Chris Derksen, Richard Essery, Mark Flanner, Stefan Hagemann, Martyn Clark, Alex Hall, Helmut Rott, Claire Brutel-Vuilmet, Hyungjun Kim, Cécile B. Ménard, Lawrence Mudryk, Chad Thackeray, Libo Wang, Gabriele Arduini, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Paul Bartlett, Julia Boike, Aaron Boone, Frédérique Chéruy, Jeanne Colin, Matthias Cuntz, Yongjiu Dai, Bertrand Decharme, Jeff Derry, Agnès D
Pubblicato in: Geoscientific Model Development, Numero 11/12, 2018, Pagina/e 5027-5049, ISSN 1991-9603
Editore: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-11-5027-2018

Evaluation of a Microwave Emissivity Module for Snow Covered Area with CMEM in the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System

Autori: Yoichi Hirahara, Patricia de Rosnay, Gabriele Arduini
Pubblicato in: Remote Sensing, Numero 12/18, 2020, Pagina/e 2946, ISSN 2072-4292
Editore: Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)
DOI: 10.3390/rs12182946

North Pacific zonal wind response to sea ice loss in the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project and its downstream implications

Autori: Bryn Ronalds, Elizabeth A. Barnes, Rosie Eade, Yannick Peings, Michael Sigmond
Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, Numero 55/7-8, 2020, Pagina/e 1779-1792, ISSN 0930-7575
Editore: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05352-w

Measuring the Impact of a New Snow Model Using Surface Energy Budget Process Relationships

Autori: Jonathan J. Day, Gabriele Arduini, Irina Sandu, Linus Magnusson, Anton Beljaars, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Mark Rodwell, David Richardson
Pubblicato in: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Numero 12/12, 2020, ISSN 1942-2466
Editore: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020ms002144

Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6

Autori: Dirk Notz, SIMIP Community
Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, Numero 47/10, 2020, ISSN 0094-8276
Editore: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2019gl086749

Using Arctic ice mass balance buoys for evaluation of modelled ice energy fluxes

Autori: Alex West, Mat Collins, Ed Blockley
Pubblicato in: Geoscientific Model Development, Numero 13/10, 2020, Pagina/e 4845-4868, ISSN 1991-9603
Editore: EGU
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-13-4845-2020

Exchange grid & multi-ice categories coupling: comparison of two flux computation strategies

Autori: Maisonnave Eric; Voldoire Aurore
Pubblicato in: Numero 1, 2019
Editore: CNRM-Météo-France
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.3480080

Monthly mean variables derived from Arctic Ice Mass Balance Buoy data, for evaluation of sea ice models

Autori: West, A. E.
Pubblicato in: Numero 1, 2020
Editore: EGU
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.3773997

Exchange grid: implementation of a test configuration to evaluate fluxes modification

Autori: Maisonnave E.; Voldoire A.
Pubblicato in: Numero 1, 2018
Editore: Centre national de recherches météorologique
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.3480075

Robustness and drivers of the Northern Hemisphere extratropical atmospheric circulation response to a CO$$_2$$-induced warming in CNRM-CM6-1

Autori: Oudar, Thomas; Cattiaux, Julien; Douville, Hervé; Geoffroy, Olivier; Saint-Martin, David; Roehrig, Romain
Pubblicato in: EMS 2019, Numero 1, 2019
Editore: CNRM/CNRS
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.4018679

Website, including online tool for end-user feedback

Autori: Jóhannsson, Halldór
Pubblicato in: Numero 1, 2016
Editore: Arctic Portal
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.1249563

Is Svalbard prepared for extreme rainfall?

Autori: Terrado, Marta; Bojovic, Dragana; Acosta, Juan; Magnusson, Linus; Køltzow, Morten; Jung, Thomas
Pubblicato in: Numero 1, 2019
Editore: Barcelona Supercomputing Centre
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.3560164

How does Arctic sea ice affect energy production in mid-latitudes?

Autori: Terrado, Marta; Bojovic, Dragana; Isadora Christel; Acosta, Juan; Ortega, Pablo; Donat, Marcus; Llorenç Lledó; Soret, Albert; Jóhannsson, Halldór; Jung, Thomas
Pubblicato in: Numero 1, 2019
Editore: Barcelona Supercomputing Centre
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.3560148

HOW DID ARCTIC SEA ICE AFFECT ENERGY PRODUCTION IN EUROPE IN 2018?

Autori: Octenjak, Sara; Bojovic, Dragana; Terrado, Marta; López Martí, Ferran; Ortega, Pablo; Acosta, Juan; Donar, Markus; Torralba, Veronica
Pubblicato in: Numero 1, 2019
Editore: Barcelona Supercomputing Centre
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.3567616

An Assessment of the use of observations in the Arctic at ECMWF

Autori: Lawrence, Heather; Goddard, Jacky; Sandu, Irina; Bormann, Niels; Bauer, Peter; Magnusson, L.
Pubblicato in: Numero 1, 2019
Editore: ECMWF
DOI: 10.21957/exlwb4o04

Decadal Variability & Trends with a focus on the North Atlantic Oscillation

Autori: Eade, Rosie
Pubblicato in: Numero 1, 2019
Editore: Met Office

Sensitivity of two melt pond schemes to the uncertainties in atmospheric reanalyses for global climate models

Autori: Sterlin, Jean; Fichefet, Thierry; Massonnet, François; Lecomte, Olivier; Vancoppenolle, Martin
Pubblicato in: Numero 1, 2019
Editore: UCLouvain
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.4545438

Atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice decline: results from PAMIP experiments

Autori: Msadek Rym; Chripko Svenya; Sanchez-Gomez Emilia; Terray Laurent
Pubblicato in: Numero 1, 2021
Editore: AGU
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.4531290

Grounded sea ice and tensile strength Landfast ice formation in climate models

Autori: Sterlin, Jean; Huot, Pierre-Vincent; Chevallier, Mathieu; Massonnet, François; Fichefet, Thierry
Pubblicato in: Numero 1, 2019
Editore: UCLouvain
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.4545536

Making advanced predictions in the Arctic and beyond: developments and results of the APPLICATE project

Autori: Massonnet, François
Pubblicato in: Numero 1, 2020
Editore: AGU
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.4536992

From twitting to training: a communication approach to adapt to a changing Arctic climate

Autori: Bojovic, Dragana; Terrado, Marta; Christel, Isadora; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.; Johannsson, Halldor; Fugmann, Gerlis; Cristini, Luisa
Pubblicato in: Numero 1, 2018
Editore: BSC
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.1289796

Consistent boreal winter forecast skill in current (non-CMIP6) climate prediction systems on seasonal scales

Autori: Juan Camilo Acosta
Pubblicato in: Numero 1, 2019
Editore: BSC
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.3244886

Arctic Climate Spatio-temporal Modes of Variability as Sources of Predictability

Autori: Acosta Navarro, Juan Camilo; Hunter, Alasdair; Guemas, Virginie; Ortega, Pablo; García-Serrano, Javier; Tourigny, Etienne; Cruz-García, Rubén; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco
Pubblicato in: Numero 1, 2018
Editore: BSC
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.3560614

A changing Arctic - dialogues from the North

Autori: Bojovic, Dragana; Terrado, Marta; Christel, Isadora; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco Javier; Jóhannsson, Halldór; Cristini, Luisa; Jung, Thomas
Pubblicato in: Numero 1, 2018
Editore: University of Cape Town
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.2590955

Engaging, Involving And Empowering: Triple Approach To Stakeholders' Collaboration On The Production Of Enhanced Arctic Climate Prediction

Autori: Bojovic, Dragana; Terrado, Marta; Johannsson, Halldor; Cristini, Luisa; Christel, Isadora; Fugmann, Gerlis; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.
Pubblicato in: Numero 1, 2018
Editore: Arctic Frontiers
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.1289797

An anatomy of the forecast errors in a seasonal prediction system with EC-Earth

Autori: Cruz-García, Rubén; Ortega, Pablo; Acosta Navarro, Juan C.; Massonnet, François; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.
Pubblicato in: Numero 1, 2019
Editore: Unknown
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.3567552

Using numerical models to design the future of Arctic observing system: insights from the APPLICATE Project

Autori: François, Massonnet; Irina, Sandu
Pubblicato in: Numero 1, 2019
Editore: YOPP Arctic Science Workshop
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.2540485

The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project PAMIP – Emerging Results and Lessons Learned

Autori: Semmler, Tido; Jung, Thomas; Streffing, Jan
Pubblicato in: Numero 1, 2020
Editore: Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.3694317

A multi-system evaluation of predictive capacity over the Arctic and mid-latitudes at the seasonal time scale

Autori: Batté, Lauriane; Acosta Navarro, Juan C.; Chevallier, Matthieu; Ortega, Pablo; Smith, Doug
Pubblicato in: Numero 1, 2018
Editore: S2S/S2D International conferences
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.3459628

Advanced prediction in the Arctic and beyond: Half way into the APPLICATE project

Autori: Ortega, Pablo; Cristini, Luisa; APPLICATE Consortium
Pubblicato in: Numero 1, 2019
Editore: "2nd EU Climate Modelling ""Workshop on Climate Prediction in the Atlantic-Arctic sector"""
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.3565531

Influence of Atmospheric and Oceanic Model Resolution on Volume and Heat Transports through Arctic Gateways in Coupled Climate Simulations

Autori: Hinrichs, Claudia; Sein, Dmitry; Wang, Qiang; Jung, Thomas
Pubblicato in: Numero 1, 2019
Editore: YOPP Arctic Science Workshop
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.3245829

How well are Arctic precipitation predicted (and observed)? Flash-poster

Autori: Køltzow, Morten
Pubblicato in: Numero 1, 2019
Editore: Arctic Earth System Modelling workshop
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.3565685

Arctic airmass transformation case explored using an Atmosphere-Ocean SCM

Autori: Svensson, Gunilla; Hartung, Kerstin
Pubblicato in: Numero 1, 2018
Editore: Stockholm University
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.1291635

Role of atmospheric reanalyses and melt ponds for global ocean circulation models

Autori: Sterlin, Jean; Fichefet, Thierry; Massonnet, François; Lecomte, Olivier; Vancoppenolle, Martin
Pubblicato in: Numero 1, 2019
Editore: UCLouvain
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.4545556

Importance of deformed ice in polar regions for climate models

Autori: Sterlin, Jean; Fichefet, Thierry; Massonnet, François; Raulier, Jonathan; Barthelemy, Antoine; Tournay, Félicien
Pubblicato in: Numero 1, 2018
Editore: UCLouvain
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.4545426

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