Objectif
This project develops tools for forecasting geomagnetic storms and solar energetic particle (SEP) radiation storms based on scientific data analysis and modeling. During the solar cycle, the Sun goes from quiet conditions at minimum to levels of high activity at maximum, where energetic phenomena, particularly coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and SEPs, are common. These are accompanied by explosive release of mass, magnetic flux and energetic particles which may have damaging effects on satellites and on-board detectors. In extreme cases the effects may even be observed on ground-based systems (e.g. pipelines, power-grids). Returning humans to the Moon with the next possible stop Mars will mean ensuring the safety of the astronauts from these extreme conditions of space, especially the energetic particle environments. This includes particularly the sporadic SEP events that can disrupt the normal functioning of human cells. In this project data analysis and modeling will feed into the development of forecasting tools for both geomagnetic storms and SEPs. The tools will be incorporated into an automated operational European Space Weather Alert system. By analysis of historical data, complemented by the extensive data coverage of solar cycle 23, the key ingredients that lead to magnetic storm and SEP events and the factors that are responsible for false alarms will be identified. To enhance our understanding of the 3D kinematics and interplanetary propagation of CMEs, the structure, propagation and evolution of CMEs will be investigated. In parallel, the sources and propagation of SEPs will be examined and modeled. Based on the insights gained, and making use of algorithms for the automated detection of CMEs, forecasting tools for geomagnetic and SEP radiation storms will be developed and optimised. Validation and implementation of the produced tools into an operational Space Weather Alert system will be performed.
Champ scientifique
Programme(s)
Appel à propositions
FP7-SPACE-2010-1
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Régime de financement
CP - Collaborative project (generic)Coordinateur
1180 Bruxelles / Brussel
Belgique