Description du projet
Un regard historique sur la richesse immobilière
Comment le niveau des prix immobiliers durant les années consacrées à l’achat d’une maison influe-t-il sur l’accumulation de richesse tout au long de la vie? Quel est l’effet des pertes et des gains de richesse immobilière induits par la fiscalité? Comment les chocs sur les rendements immobiliers au niveau des propriétés et des quartiers affectent-ils les valeurs des logements à long terme? Le projet HISHOUSHOCK, financé par l’UE, entend répondre à ces questions. Il étudiera les différences de richesse immobilière et de valeur des logements. Comme ceux-ci sont liés aux tendances économiques et aux choix individuels des ménages, le bien et le propriétaire sont deux facteurs importants. Le projet mènera, dans le contexte du centre historique d’Amsterdam, des études qui utilisent les chocs de richesse immobilière pour étudier leur impact à long terme.
Objectif
Climbing the housing ladder is the most important way for households to accumulate wealth, but households differ significantly in their access to housing wealth and the housing returns they realize. The goal of this project is to investigate the long-term impact of shocks to housing values on the wealth of individuals and their neighborhoods.
Measuring the impact of such shocks is difficult, because differences in housing wealth and housing values are typically closely related to economic trends and the individual choices of households, making it difficult to identify variation in housing wealth that is unrelated to the property or its owner. The limited availability of long-term data on the wealth of individuals further constrains the possibility to study long-term effects.
The solution I take in this project is to go back into the past. I propose a set of three studies in the context of historical Amsterdam that exploit shocks to housing wealth to investigate their impact over the long run. The particular institutional setting of Amsterdam in the 18th and 20th centuries allows me to isolate changes in housing wealth or access to housing wealth that are unrelated to individuals or economic conditions, and whose effects can be traced using extensive recently-digitized archival records.
The first study examines how the level of house prices when individuals enter their home-buying years affects their lifetime wealth accumulation. In the second study, I investigate how tax-driven losses and gains in housing wealth affect the income and wealth of individuals and their offspring. In the final study, I take the house as a unit of observation and investigate how shocks to property- and neighborhood-level housing returns affect long-term housing values.
The proposed project will be hosted by the Erasmus School of Economics and Columbia Business School, making use of world-leading knowledge and training in real estate and financial history.
Champ scientifique
Programme(s)
Régime de financement
MSCA-IF-GF - Global FellowshipsCoordinateur
3062 PA Rotterdam
Pays-Bas