Modelling sustainability and technology
The scientists have prepared a set of working papers and a questionnaire. The questions addressed were organised around particular issues. On the subject of technical progress, they focused on the long-run affects of technological innovation and its effect on economic welfare, climate change and emissions. With regards to revenue recycling and the labour market, research examined taxes and charges and the impact of various tax recycling regimes being applied. The role of energy prices on economic activity was also assessed, as were the costs of climate policies, technologies for carbon capture and storage and the need for these to be integrated into current models. The main aim of this research was to gain a better understanding of the kind of technological change that is considered compatible with sustainability. It approached this aim by identifying the key elements for improving the capabilities of current models that address the concept of sustainability. Therefore, rather than focusing solely on factors negatively affecting progress towards sustainable infrastructures, it shifted the attention to modelling the type and causes for technological change. This factor is placed centre stage because it is understood that the transition to sustainable economic structures requires investment activities. It is this activity which causes the kind of technological change which is considered to be compatible with sustainability. The main conclusions that were made regarding the models concerned the need to redefine the concept of welfare generating services and to investigate the drivers that determine the relationship between the stock and flow variables. The researchers suggest that measures of welfare need to be adjusted so that they do not base results solely on flow variables (that is GDP or consumption), but also include relevant stocks. Evidence of this is provided by the results following extreme events such as flooding. A measurement of welfare using only flow variables misses a considerable loss of capital. Also, it is recognised that the services generated by stocks and flows provide indicators relevant for measuring economic welfare. The model by model results of the questionnaire are laid out in this paper and are available on the project website at http://www.transust.org
