Europe to feel economic crunch from climate change
The European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) recently issued a report outlining how the EU would lose between EUR 20 billion and EUR 65 billion if we were to experience the climate projected for the 2080s today, with a temperature rise of between 2.5°C to 5.4°C. The PESETA ('Projection of economic impacts of climate change in sectors of the European Union based on bottom-up analysis') project evaluated the annual economic impacts of climate change in Europe in coastal systems, river flooding, agriculture and tourism - four elements that are sensitive to climate change. Adaptation policies were not considered in the assessment. The PESETA study presented diverse regional impacts of climate change across the EU: southern and central Europe would sustain a number of damages, while northern Europe would be the only region to benefit from climate change, especially in terms of the economy and the four elements. Besides the increase in temperature, the report predicted that the sea level will rise between 48 cm and 88 cm. On the whole, the EU's economy would contract substantially each year. And global warming would have an adverse impact on the level of economic growth for Europeans. It should be noted, however, that the overall cost of global warming could be higher since the PESETA study did not take into account non-market variables including natural disasters or biodiversity. The report has suggested that welfare could drop by 0.2% if the temperature increases by 2.5°C. However, a 5.4°C increase could slash EU welfare growth by half. In terms of the four elements, coastal systems (sea floods and migration costs) would decrease annual welfare by 0.46% and affect up to 5.5 million people. River flooding would decrease annual welfare by 0.24% and affect up to 400,000 people. Agriculture would sustain 10% losses in crop yields each year. Tourism is considered the only sector that will not really be affected, but officials speculate variances across the regions will emerge. From a regional perspective, southern Europe - in particular Bulgaria, Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain - is expected to sustain the biggest welfare losses (between 0.3% and 1.6% per year), and agriculture could post a 25% loss in yields. The tourism sector in this region could lose up to EUR 5 billion each year. Central Europe North - Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands and Poland - would report around 0.3% and 0.7% welfare losses. The region's coastal systems would sustain damages, with up to 2.4 million people affected by sea floods, and river flooding would burn a EUR 5 billion hole in pockets. On the contrary, however, the tourism sector will report growth (up to EUR 4 billion in extra revenue). Central Europe South - Austria, the Czech Republic, France, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia - would sustain between 0.1% and 0.6% in welfare losses, and its coastal and river systems would feel a considerable crunch due to flooding. Tourism, on the other hand, would not; experts speculate that this sector would post EUR 10 billion in additional revenues. Northern Europe - Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania and Sweden - will be the only region to profit from these changes, with its agricultural sector posting the most positive results. The only sour point is that sea floods could potentially affect over 250,000 people each year. The Commission has used the PESETA project's preliminary results for the White paper 'Adapting to climate change: towards a European framework for action'.