School closure could slow down flu pandemic, study shows
Closing schools in a flu pandemic could prevent one in seven cases of the disease and slow down the spread of the virus, according to new, EU-funded research. Maintaining stocks of flu vaccines and anti-viral drugs is extremely expensive, so policy makers are keen to find non-pharmaceutical methods for controlling the spread of a possible future flu pandemic. One of the most often-considered options is school closure. Such a measure would come with high social and economic costs, yet until now there has been little evidence on how effective it would be at preventing the spread of the disease. In this latest study, UK and French scientists analysed data collected since 1984 by French doctors to see how rates of flu transmission are affected by school holidays. They used this information to create computer models to see how school closures might affect the transmission of a theoretical H5N1 virus which has mutated so that it can be passed from human to human. Their findings are published in the latest edition of the journal Nature. The study revealed that long-term school closure during a pandemic could prevent up to one in seven cases of the disease. Furthermore, it would slow down the spread of the disease, so that the numbers becoming ill in the worst week of the outbreak would be reduced by up to 40%. This would help to considerably ease pressures on healthcare providers at the peak of the pandemic. However, the researchers warn that closing schools for a long time would create problems, particularly for working parents who would have to find alternative childcare arrangements. 'Closing schools for a long time is not an option you can take lightly, because it has a big economic and social impact, and the extent to which there would be a knock-on effect on transmission is hard to predict,' explains Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London, one of the authors of the study. 'Even though the children would not be in school, they would still mix with other children and adults in the community and spread the virus through this contact. We also think it's likely that parents would need to devise new childcare arrangements so that they could continue working, meaning that they would be setting up the equivalent of small schools where the virus could easily be transmitted,' he added. The scientists also point out that healthcare services could also be affected by school closure, as some health workers will not be able to care for the sick if they have to stay at home to look after their children. Nevertheless, the researchers note that their conclusions 'do not rule out the use of school closure in a severe pandemic', although governments should not rely on this measure alone. 'Our research shows that school closures could be a useful measure in terms of slowing the spread of a flu pandemic,' comments Dr Simon Cauchemez of Imperial College London. 'However, its effectiveness would very much depend on what other measures, like vaccination or antiviral drugs, were put in place as well.' EU support for the research came from the EU-funded SARSTRANS ('Control policy optimisation for SARS and other emerging infections - characterising transmission dynamics and estimating key epidemiological parameters') and INFTRANS ('Transmission modelling and risk assessment for released or newly emergent infectious disease agents') projects, both of which are funded under the 'Research for policy support' thematic area of the Sixth Framework Programme (FP6). Currently, the H5N1 strain of flu is largely restricted to birds. According to the latest figures from the World Health Organization (WHO), 379 people have contracted the disease since 2003, of which 239 have died.
Countries
France, United Kingdom