Risultati finali
A model for predicting the risk of lethal wilting of conifer trees arising from infestation by the pinewood nematode, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, has been developed. This is a process model that uses an existing set of sub-models for tree growth driven by environmental parameters such as soil type, moisture regime, local temperatures, sunlight, carbon dynamics, etc.
The model has been tested and verified in the pinewood nematode-infested part of Portugal and provides good prediction of the likelihood of wilt expression. Consultancy and specific prediction of wilt expression can be provided to any stakeholder concerned about the potential impact of pinewood nematode. The quality of the predictions is dependent on the quality of the input parameters; however, these are generally available at a gross scale and, with further refinement, at very local scales.
This innovative approach is also potentially applicable to other biotic damaging organisms that affect tree growth and performance.
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