Periodic Reporting for period 2 - ALARM (multi-hAzard monitoring and earLy wARning systeM)
Reporting period: 2021-11-01 to 2022-12-31
Aviation safety can be jeopardized by multiple hazards arising from natural phenomena, e.g. severe weather, Aerosols/gases from natural hazard, space weather, and, though not directly affecting the safety of aviation but the planet, the climatic impact of aviation. Flying through thunderstorms might lead to strong turbulence, wind shear, downbursts, icing, lightning and hail. Other factors affecting aviation safety are due to aerosols/gases arising from natural hazards, e.g. fire smokes, desert dust or volcanic ash and SO2 plumes: Dense smoke clouds from wildfire and dus in low altitude drastically reduce visibility. The engine ingestion of dust/smoke aerosols can also induce severe damages (erosion, corrosion, pitot-static tube blockage). Volcanic ash and SO2 gases are also major hazards, causing windscreen abrasions, reduction of visibility, damage to aircraft instrumentation and systems, hot corrosion Space weather effects on aviation include: the disruption of radio/satellite communication; the degradation of navigation systems; increased radiation exposure to crew and passenger. Last but not least, aviation-induced climate change (also considered herein as a hazard) is not being considered today in ATM decision-making. Facing the continuing expansion of air traffic, the goal ofdeveloping a climatic aviation becomes increasingly challenging.
The overall objective of ALARM project is to develop a prototype global multi-hazard monitoring and Early Warning System for all these above exposed hazards. Continuous global Earth observations from satellite, ground-based systems, and atmospheric forecasts will be used to feed models capable of observing and predicting (nowcasting/forecasting) the displacement of particles in suspension and gas derived from natural hazards; severe weather situations; exposure to increased levels of solar radiation; and environmental hotspots potentially contributing to global warming in a large extent.
Specifically, the aim is to enhance situational awareness of all stakeholders in case of hazard crisis by facilitating the transfer of required relevant information to end-users, presenting such information in a user-friendly manner to ATM stakeholders. In summary, anticipating severe hazards and fostering better decision-making.
We can consider 5 specific objectives:
1. to develop an advanced alert system hazard service (Early Warning System – EWS). It will include alerts on particle dispersion hazards (volcanic ash, sulphur, dust clouds, smoke from forest fires) and space weather events (exposure to increased radiation levels) on a global scale (long-line flights), severe weather hazards (deep convection, extreme weather, icy clouds) on a regional scale (localised airports), and environmental hotspots (persistent contrails areas) on a global scale.
2. to bring together observational data with hindcast data in order to develop a bias correction metric that can be used to build an alarm forecast system of SO2 for airports.
3. to define the state of the art of extreme weather in EU and its connection to the climate change, and to develop nowcasting algorithms for locally developed convective systems.
4. Provide algorithms for environmental/climate hot spots based on state-of-art algorithmic climate change functions, define MET data requirements and evaluate climate impacts.
5. Develop the roadmap for future development and deployment, and draft information requirements for the SWIM service for the alert products developed in WP2 to WP5. Develop visualization API.
The overall objective of ALARM project is to develop a prototype global multi-hazard monitoring and Early Warning System for all these above exposed hazards. Continuous global Earth observations from satellite, ground-based systems, and atmospheric forecasts will be used to feed models capable of observing and predicting (nowcasting/forecasting) the displacement of particles in suspension and gas derived from natural hazards; severe weather situations; exposure to increased levels of solar radiation; and environmental hotspots potentially contributing to global warming in a large extent.
Specifically, the aim is to enhance situational awareness of all stakeholders in case of hazard crisis by facilitating the transfer of required relevant information to end-users, presenting such information in a user-friendly manner to ATM stakeholders. In summary, anticipating severe hazards and fostering better decision-making.
We can consider 5 specific objectives:
1. to develop an advanced alert system hazard service (Early Warning System – EWS). It will include alerts on particle dispersion hazards (volcanic ash, sulphur, dust clouds, smoke from forest fires) and space weather events (exposure to increased radiation levels) on a global scale (long-line flights), severe weather hazards (deep convection, extreme weather, icy clouds) on a regional scale (localised airports), and environmental hotspots (persistent contrails areas) on a global scale.
2. to bring together observational data with hindcast data in order to develop a bias correction metric that can be used to build an alarm forecast system of SO2 for airports.
3. to define the state of the art of extreme weather in EU and its connection to the climate change, and to develop nowcasting algorithms for locally developed convective systems.
4. Provide algorithms for environmental/climate hot spots based on state-of-art algorithmic climate change functions, define MET data requirements and evaluate climate impacts.
5. Develop the roadmap for future development and deployment, and draft information requirements for the SWIM service for the alert products developed in WP2 to WP5. Develop visualization API.
We have verified the two hypotheses stated at the beginning of the project:
• H1: Satellite and ground-based observations can be continuously recorded and combined with multi-hazard models (for space, severe weather, environment, gas dispersion) from an early warning and nowcasting/forecasting system, producing multi-hazard alert products to be broadcasted to ATM stakeholders.
• H2: The multi-hazard alert system can present the information in a demo tool, fulfils ATM information requirements, and yellow SWIM requirements can be addressed.
We present two solutions as main results of the project:
The 1st is coined SOL-ALARM -1 “Multi-hazard Monitoring and Early Warning System platform”. A maturity assessment has been conducted. SOL-ALARM 1, which would be at TRL2 levels.
The 2nd solution is coined SOL-ALARM -2 “Integrated platform for the Nowcasting and Forecasting of Multiple Meteorological hazards, including climatic impact”. A maturity assessment has been conducted. SOL-ALARM 2, which would be at TRL1 levels.
• H1: Satellite and ground-based observations can be continuously recorded and combined with multi-hazard models (for space, severe weather, environment, gas dispersion) from an early warning and nowcasting/forecasting system, producing multi-hazard alert products to be broadcasted to ATM stakeholders.
• H2: The multi-hazard alert system can present the information in a demo tool, fulfils ATM information requirements, and yellow SWIM requirements can be addressed.
We present two solutions as main results of the project:
The 1st is coined SOL-ALARM -1 “Multi-hazard Monitoring and Early Warning System platform”. A maturity assessment has been conducted. SOL-ALARM 1, which would be at TRL2 levels.
The 2nd solution is coined SOL-ALARM -2 “Integrated platform for the Nowcasting and Forecasting of Multiple Meteorological hazards, including climatic impact”. A maturity assessment has been conducted. SOL-ALARM 2, which would be at TRL1 levels.
The results obtained during the the project show that the objectives of ALARM have been achieved.
We have positively answered the research questions stated in the DoA, going beyond the state of the art with a clear impact in terms of aviation safety and environmental impact.
RQ#1: Can we issue alerts of natural airborne hazard regarding increased SO2, ash or dust concentrations at flight altitudes using continuous and global measurements from geostationary broadband sensors?
RQ#2: Can we issue space weather alerts regarding increased radiation levels at flight altitudes and risk for HF disruption in the polar region?
RQ#3: Can models for hindcasting (blending nowcasts/forecasts and observations) of SO2 dispersion can be developed for 3 different airports?
RQ#4: Can models for early warning & nowcasting/forecasting of severe weather events can be developed for a particular airport using in-situ instrumentation and satellite observations?
RQ5 Can we identify environmental hotspots using algorithmic-Climate Change Functions?
Based on the results research and the development activities, we foresee the following R&D activities:
• The enhancement of the ALARM EWS by including more products in the SWIM service.
• The development of nowcasting products for Dust, Ash, and Smoke. So far, only observations of these products are available. However, by blending these observations with numerical weather forecasts and training machine learning algorithms, it would be possible to have nowcasts of the evolution of dust, ash, and smoke.
• The development of nowcasting products SO2 in 3D. So far, in ALARM, the nowcasting of SO2 is 1D, providing values for a given location. Extending this nowcast to 2D (lat-long) eventually including the vertical dimension (3D) remains as a challenge.
• Extreme Weather nowcasting has been based on rain, wind, and lightening as observational data. Incorporating additional observations, e.g. from radar, satellite, sensors on board the aircraft to characterize better the weather extremes and enhance the quality of the nowcast.
• The Non-CO2 climate impact of aviation exhibits large uncertainties. Among others, they include the uncertainty in the meteorological Forecast, the uncertainty associated to the calculation of climate effects and impact, the selection of the emission model, or the model approximations. Indeed, the environmental hotspots we have obtained in ALARM using algorithmic-Climate Change Functions are subject to those uncertainties. Further understanding of non-CO2 effects uncertainties is needed.
• In ALARM we have developed the concept of environmental hotspots, which has led to the concept of ECHO areas, volumes of airspace that may be subject to restrictions. In depth analysis of the impact of those ECHO areas, including flight dispatching, and capacity-demand balancing are demanded.
We have positively answered the research questions stated in the DoA, going beyond the state of the art with a clear impact in terms of aviation safety and environmental impact.
RQ#1: Can we issue alerts of natural airborne hazard regarding increased SO2, ash or dust concentrations at flight altitudes using continuous and global measurements from geostationary broadband sensors?
RQ#2: Can we issue space weather alerts regarding increased radiation levels at flight altitudes and risk for HF disruption in the polar region?
RQ#3: Can models for hindcasting (blending nowcasts/forecasts and observations) of SO2 dispersion can be developed for 3 different airports?
RQ#4: Can models for early warning & nowcasting/forecasting of severe weather events can be developed for a particular airport using in-situ instrumentation and satellite observations?
RQ5 Can we identify environmental hotspots using algorithmic-Climate Change Functions?
Based on the results research and the development activities, we foresee the following R&D activities:
• The enhancement of the ALARM EWS by including more products in the SWIM service.
• The development of nowcasting products for Dust, Ash, and Smoke. So far, only observations of these products are available. However, by blending these observations with numerical weather forecasts and training machine learning algorithms, it would be possible to have nowcasts of the evolution of dust, ash, and smoke.
• The development of nowcasting products SO2 in 3D. So far, in ALARM, the nowcasting of SO2 is 1D, providing values for a given location. Extending this nowcast to 2D (lat-long) eventually including the vertical dimension (3D) remains as a challenge.
• Extreme Weather nowcasting has been based on rain, wind, and lightening as observational data. Incorporating additional observations, e.g. from radar, satellite, sensors on board the aircraft to characterize better the weather extremes and enhance the quality of the nowcast.
• The Non-CO2 climate impact of aviation exhibits large uncertainties. Among others, they include the uncertainty in the meteorological Forecast, the uncertainty associated to the calculation of climate effects and impact, the selection of the emission model, or the model approximations. Indeed, the environmental hotspots we have obtained in ALARM using algorithmic-Climate Change Functions are subject to those uncertainties. Further understanding of non-CO2 effects uncertainties is needed.
• In ALARM we have developed the concept of environmental hotspots, which has led to the concept of ECHO areas, volumes of airspace that may be subject to restrictions. In depth analysis of the impact of those ECHO areas, including flight dispatching, and capacity-demand balancing are demanded.